EV developments

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begreen said:
This new survey has to be making Detroit nervous.

AlixPartners 2024 International EV Consumer-Sentiment Survey

Purchase intention surges in China and stagnates in the U.S., as buyers pivot to plug-in hybrids; improved charging is singular key to long-term BEV growth, AlixPartners study finds Percentage of those “very” or “moderately” likely to purchase battery-electric vehicles increases to 97% in...
www.alixpartners.com www.alixpartners.com
Click to expand...
I don’t see Chinas market making any big changes in the next 2-3 years. The fact BYD is selling for much higher markups outside of China is interesting. They are currently pricing them in line with competition not cheaper outside of China. The idea that our capitalistic society will only buy a Chinese car if it’s 20% cheaper I don’t buy. But in fact with the tax credit they will have to be priced that way to be on par with some models that qualify.

I’m looking to replace (not seriously yet) My 2011 Odyssey with 131k miles. It’s super hard to stomach that a Sienna starts at $40k. And a really want a bigger 12-15 passenger van which starts at $53k and the twin turbo V6 AWD comes in at $63k. In this size nothing will be BEV under 70k for a long time.

This is the only serious contender and even then with 7 people and their stuff it won’t be able to tow much very far. https://www.vw.com/en/models/id-buzz.html
 
EbS-P said:
I don’t see Chinas market making any big changes in the next 2-3 years. The fact BYD is selling for much higher markups outside of China is interesting. They are currently pricing them in line with competition not cheaper outside of China. The idea that our capitalistic society will only buy a Chinese car if it’s 20% cheaper I don’t buy. But in fact with the tax credit they will have to be priced that way to be on par with some models that qualify.

I’m looking to replace (not seriously yet) My 2011 Odyssey with 131k miles. It’s super hard to stomach that a Sienna starts at $40k. And a really want a bigger 12-15 passenger van which starts at $53k and the twin turbo V6 AWD comes in at $63k. In this size nothing will be BEV under 70k for a long time.

This is the only serious contender and even then with 7 people and their stuff it won’t be able to tow much very far. https://www.vw.com/en/models/id-buzz.html
Click to expand...
I agree, it will be a long wait. This case is the opposite extreme. Not many families need a bus that can tow. I think the survey case was more for the typcial family sedan/wagon. Case in point, the Buick Velite 6 sells as an EV or hybrid in China for about $15k. If it sold for $27K here it would sell well.
 
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I think the perception of Chinese-made high-end products is shifting. Yes, they can make cheap crap and the thought of it creeping into our infrastructure (ie: plumbing and electric) scares me. But they are also capable of making high quality electronics, machinery, etc. The advent of good heat pumps, drills, generators, are a few examples. They have made remarkable progress in the past 20 yrs. Their national high-speed rail network makes our rail system look antiquated. This affects the buying public's perception which is what I think the survey is pointing out.
 
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The parallels between Japan ascendent 40 years ago and China ascendent today are remarkably similar. The major difference was Japan's agreement with the world not to field an offensive military meant that the money went elsewhere.
 
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The anxiety then was real. The Bank of Japan and trade ministry created a formidable export engine. Up until 1981 I had never owned a Japanese car. That year we bought a Honda Accord, our first new car. It changed my opinion of Japanese products quickly. It was replaced with a Toyota Camry wagon as the family grew. Both were great cars. Super reliable and good on gas.

I think I still have a copy of Japan, Inc. from that time period.
www.investopedia.com

Japan Inc.: What It is, How It Works, History

Japan Inc. is a descriptor for that country’s traditional, highly centralized economic system.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
 
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Lol, and the top comment at this time: According to all of the diehard Tesla lovers who think Elon does everything brilliantly, this is a great idea.
 
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peakbagger said:
So much for Tesla's Supercharger network being the solution to lack of charging stations

electrek.co

Tesla is already pulling back Supercharger plans after firing team

Tesla is already pulling back Supercharger plans after Elon Musk came in like a wrecking ball and fired the whole...
electrek.co electrek.co
Click to expand...
The reliable and vast Tesla charging network sold vehicles. Why fire everyone if you just plan to slow down? You don’t. Even with the Federal money this part of the company isn’t seen as making enough profit. They are pulling out of the low margin endeavors. This is short sighted. This was the one real jewel for Tesla and maybe the network is built out enough for another year or two of growth without more chargers? On average it’s possible. I have never experienced a line and in fact only once for 5 minutes was the V1 charging station more than half full (wich reduced my charging speed to 60 kw).

Come this winter’s holiday travel season I predict record lines at the most popular charging locations.
 
It’s my guess that Elon has information that we don’t. What that is, no idea. We can speculate as much as we want, but until he says why, we don’t know. It does seem to defy logic, which means it’d have to be a serious reason.
 
EatenByLimestone said:
It’s my guess that Elon has information that we don’t. What that is, no idea. We can speculate as much as we want, but until he says why, we don’t know. It does seem to defy logic, which means it’d have to be a serious reason.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%. At the end he's a tech bro, and most of his thinking is colored by that. Startups worry about bankruptcy (running out of cash) more than anything else. And even if the probability of that is low (requiring, for example a major global recession to begin right now on top of Tesla's current financial strain) he would take steps to reduce that probability to zero.

Given that his companies have nearly gone bankrupt in the past, I think it likely he feels this concern. Reduce burn rate, period.
 
Building new charger stations are not simple, its pretty rare that an existing business has the electrical capacity to support a supercharger. Its not as simple as calling the utility to have a new service installed, utilities may need to add upgrade an existing circuit at a substation level and in some cases may even need to upgrade the feeder to the substation. In my town of 3000 residents area, the utility has requested 3 million dollars to do the upgrades needed to support one DC charger station. Someone has to pay for that and just as importantly, someone may have to wait two to three years to get that upgraded service. Someone has to manage that and that adds headcount.

Charging stations in general need to have high reliability and reportedly they level of reliability is not where it needs to be. Charging cords reportedly are an attractive item to steal for resale as scrap. Tesla is effectively turning the Supercharger network into a universal network for other companies that did not make the investment in charger networks.

Even though there is potential for making a buck running it, it may not have the margins that Tesla is looking for. Tesla's incredibly high PE ratio means Wall Street is screaming for results on daily basis and right now. Somewhat like the Supertanker in Baltimore, a company the size of Tesla does not change course quickly so all Tesla can do is throw out signs of directional changes that will yield results in the future to satisfy short term demands of wall street. Resources are limited and my guess is Tesla has gotten clear notice that Wall Street wants then to field a small EV and my guess is the supercharger network and its required capital and operational costs is getting lined up on the deck rails getting ready to be jettisoned.

Tesla was forced into a building a supercharger network to support their EV concept, now that they are signing deals with other car companies and becoming a defacto national DC network my guess they would like to shed it to some other entity. The problem is I am unsure if any normal company would want to deal with mercurial CEO like Elon.
 
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Hybrids are here to save us all!!!

I think not. That’s a lot of extra parts to get 1-2 mpg improvement.


“Because of the small battery, the Tacoma Hybrid doesn’t have a dedicated EV mode. It can drive around on pure electricity at the ECU’s discretion, briefly, at low speeds, and the system can shut off the engine for coasting on the highway. Fuel economy isn’t the priority either. Compared with their gas-only equivalents, hybrid Tacomas get around 2 mpg more in the city, 1 mpg more on the highway, and 1 mpg more combined. Really, this is about performance.”
 
peakbagger said:
Building new charger stations are not simple, its pretty rare that an existing business has the electrical capacity to support a supercharger. Its not as simple as calling the utility to have a new service installed, utilities may need to add upgrade an existing circuit at a substation level and in some cases may even need to upgrade the feeder to the substation. In my town of 3000 residents area, the utility has requested 3 million dollars to do the upgrades needed to support one DC charger station. Someone has to pay for that and just as importantly, someone may have to wait two to three years to get that upgraded service. Someone has to manage that and that adds headcount.

Charging stations in general need to have high reliability and reportedly they level of reliability is not where it needs to be. Charging cords reportedly are an attractive item to steal for resale as scrap. Tesla is effectively turning the Supercharger network into a universal network for other companies that did not make the investment in charger networks.

Even though there is potential for making a buck running it, it may not have the margins that Tesla is looking for. Tesla's incredibly high PE ratio means Wall Street is screaming for results on daily basis and right now. Somewhat like the Supertanker in Baltimore, a company the size of Tesla does not change course quickly so all Tesla can do is throw out signs of directional changes that will yield results in the future to satisfy short term demands of wall street. Resources are limited and my guess is Tesla has gotten clear notice that Wall Street wants then to field a small EV and my guess is the supercharger network and its required capital and operational costs is getting lined up on the deck rails getting ready to be jettisoned.

Tesla was forced into a building a supercharger network to support their EV concept, now that they are signing deals with other car companies and becoming a defacto national DC network my guess they would like to shed it to some other entity. The problem is I am unsure if any normal company would want to deal with mercurial CEO like Elon.
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Even with Markups of 300-400% on the power sold it takes a long time recoup the initial cost. I would like to see the average power delivered per month per stall for Teslas network. I’d be surprised if on average they make more than $3-$4k per stall based on what I see at my local charger. I could be really wrong.

Edit… that works out to be 175 million per year in revenue for all their stalls.
 
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EbS-P said:
Hybrids are here to save us all!!!

I think not. That’s a lot of extra parts to get 1-2 mpg improvement.


“Because of the small battery, the Tacoma Hybrid doesn’t have a dedicated EV mode. It can drive around on pure electricity at the ECU’s discretion, briefly, at low speeds, and the system can shut off the engine for coasting on the highway. Fuel economy isn’t the priority either. Compared with their gas-only equivalents, hybrid Tacomas get around 2 mpg more in the city, 1 mpg more on the highway, and 1 mpg more combined. Really, this is about performance
Click to expand...
I have noticed that hybrids have started popping back up in commercials lately. Maybe its just me, but I don't think I saw much of anything about the Powerboost ford while they were pushing the lightning. Also didn't see much about the eco-diesels that companies have been quietly offering. Now, every ford truck commercial has an ICE F150, a Lightning F150 and a Powerboost F150 (all of them saving the day by the way lol). Again, it might just be me, but it does look like the major companies are pushing diversity rather then one major option.
 
walhondingnashua said:
I have noticed that hybrids have started popping back up in commercials lately. Maybe its just me, but I don't think I saw much of anything about the Powerboost ford while they were pushing the lightning. Also didn't see much about the eco-diesels that companies have been quietly offering. Now, every ford truck commercial has an ICE F150, a Lightning F150 and a Powerboost F150 (all of them saving the day by the way lol). Again, it might just be me, but it does look like the major companies are pushing diversity rather then one major option.
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Yup. Part of PR is making official announcements, and the other is where you spend your ad dollars.

GM spent a bundle advertizing their vaporware EVs in two SuperBowls and the World Series. Then didn't release them. Then annouced a hybrid a push.

This has made me skeptical that their advertising does not predict their future direction.
 
EbS-P said:
Hybrids are here to save us all!!!

I think not. That’s a lot of extra parts to get 1-2 mpg improvement.


“Because of the small battery, the Tacoma Hybrid doesn’t have a dedicated EV mode. It can drive around on pure electricity at the ECU’s discretion, briefly, at low speeds, and the system can shut off the engine for coasting on the highway. Fuel economy isn’t the priority either. Compared with their gas-only equivalents, hybrid Tacomas get around 2 mpg more in the city, 1 mpg more on the highway, and 1 mpg more combined. Really, this is about performance.”
Click to expand...
I thought the Rav4 had a larger improvement in mpg going hybrid:
Google tells me
"The Hybrid gets an EPA-estimated 41 mpg in the city and 38 mpg on the highway; the standard RAV4 gets up to an EPA-rated 27/35 mpg city/highway."

So 150-300% larger improvement than your improvement estimate for highway - see what I did there; I could work at a marketing department :) anyway, 3 mpg improvement vs. 1-2 mpg), and 6 mpg improvement city.
Knowing that my tiny Mazda2 that would fit inside a Rav4 gets 41 mpg average (with my driving style that is ... ), it's impressive that a Rav4 gets that same mileage, even if city only.

And those extra parts are quite durable (a lot more so than the original ICE parts).
Anyway, I think that the psychology of many folks here simply won't make them move to pure EV (barring the pie in the sky carbon tax at the correct (societal cost of ICE calculated) level). PHEVs do seem to be lowering the anxiety, given the significant fraction of folks having one that are thinking about getting a BEV as their next car (as I read somewhere).

So yes, maybe hybrids ARE going to save us - even if (too?) late.
 
stoveliker said:
I thought the Rav4 had a larger improvement in mpg going hybrid:
Google tells me
"The Hybrid gets an EPA-estimated 41 mpg in the city and 38 mpg on the highway; the standard RAV4 gets up to an EPA-rated 27/35 mpg city/highway."
Click to expand...
Similar boost for the Toyota Camry. Some of these magazine writers appear to have a lead foot. A neighbor has a Highlander hybrid and has been delighted with the economy difference from their older Highlander (36mpg vs 25mpg).
 
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stoveliker said:
Anyway, I think that the psychology of many folks here simply won't make them move to pure EV (barring the pie in the sky carbon tax at the correct (societal cost of ICE calculated) level). PHEVs do seem to be lowering the anxiety, given the significant fraction of folks having one that are thinking about getting a BEV as their next car (as I read somewhere).

So yes, maybe hybrids ARE going to save us - even if (too?) late.
Click to expand...

I agree that PHEVs can be a useful bridge for some folks, but worry that a lot of folks won't bother to plug them in except when gas is expensive.

And I hope that there will be an alternative route... for BEVs to be so cheap (new and used) that folks will take the plunge to keep cash in their pocket.
 
I agree with both.

Regarding the first, I wonder whether pop up messages upon start up (as my wife's rav4 (ice only...) does about temps, impending need for service, etc. etc.) would help. Remind drivers not during driving but at every start up that they could save cost in fuel and maintenance if they'd had plugged it in.

Or an alarm when one shuts down the car: "Plug it in, battery is empty" just like leaving ones lights on.

Won't solve it, but might help.
 
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sloeffle said:
www.thedrive.com

Add Gigacasting to the List of Things Tesla Has Given Up On

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has touted "gigacasting" as a revolutionary new way of making cars. Now, Tesla's reportedly scaling back its ambitions.
www.thedrive.com www.thedrive.com
Click to expand...

The story comes from the same anonymous sources at Reuters that said Tesla was scrapping plans for the Model 2 last month. Which then got walked back a week later.

Elon has personally Xeeted that both of these stories are false.

So, is it clickbait, or is Elon a liar, or both?
 
No, he’s really good at marketing himself and his products . He’d figure out a way to get people all worked up over the brand of TP he uses.
 
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peakbagger said:
Building new charger stations are not simple, its pretty rare that an existing business has the electrical capacity to support a supercharger. Its not as simple as calling the utility to have a new service installed, utilities may need to add upgrade an existing circuit at a substation level and in some cases may even need to upgrade the feeder to the substation. In my town of 3000 residents area, the utility has requested 3 million dollars to do the upgrades needed to support one DC charger station. Someone has to pay for that and just as importantly, someone may have to wait two to three years to get that upgraded service. Someone has to manage that and that adds headcount.

Charging stations in general need to have high reliability and reportedly they level of reliability is not where it needs to be. Charging cords reportedly are an attractive item to steal for resale as scrap. Tesla is effectively turning the Supercharger network into a universal network for other companies that did not make the investment in charger networks.

Even though there is potential for making a buck running it, it may not have the margins that Tesla is looking for. Tesla's incredibly high PE ratio means Wall Street is screaming for results on daily basis and right now. Somewhat like the Supertanker in Baltimore, a company the size of Tesla does not change course quickly so all Tesla can do is throw out signs of directional changes that will yield results in the future to satisfy short term demands of wall street. Resources are limited and my guess is Tesla has gotten clear notice that Wall Street wants then to field a small EV and my guess is the supercharger network and its required capital and operational costs is getting lined up on the deck rails getting ready to be jettisoned.

Tesla was forced into a building a supercharger network to support their EV concept, now that they are signing deals with other car companies and becoming a defacto national DC network my guess they would like to shed it to some other entity. The problem is I am unsure if any normal company would want to deal with mercurial CEO like Elon.
Click to expand...
So it took Tesla 500 people to get keep building their network. And now everyone has switched to NACS they say “Nah you are all on your own to expand this network”. It’s just like gasoline the margins are slim. It really seems to me utility companies are well positioned to take the lead in this build out.

At Tesla service now. We will see if the repair is completed today.
 
Last thing I knew the 4860 cell production was not going well

electrek.co

Panasonic delays Tesla 4680 battery cell production

Panasonic announced that it is delaying volume production of the Tesla 4680 battery cell in order to introduce “performance improvement...
electrek.co electrek.co
 
I thought Elon was all in on the robotaxi stuff and ditching the Model 2 ? Or did that change over night because the investors starting ditching the stock. ;)


Elon likes to keep himself in front of the press and the lime light. Can't say I'm a big fan of his, but he does know how to build successful companies from the ground up. He should probably focus on one company ( SpaceX would be my guess), and then hire competent management staff to run the others.
 
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