Inflation Reduction Act Qualifying Heat Pumps

[NoGoodAtScreenNames]

First I’ve seen a list of heat pumps that qualify for the new tax credits. I haven’t seen anything published on what the standards are but Mitsubishi seems confident these will qualify - whatever the rules end up being.

Inflation Reduction Act

Information about the Inflation Reduction Act and how Mitsubishi Electric Trane US can help. These rebates can save our customers thousands of dollars on upcoming projects.

www.mitsubishicomfort.com

 

[begreen]

Yes, it's not so helpful when just a listing Mitsubishi products.

 

[EbS-P]

The IRA listed the top tier of, and I forgot he name of the entity, and that group was meeting to redo the tiers so more would qualify but have not heard anything.

My guess is Mitsubishi had someone at the meetings.

 

[NoGoodAtScreenNames]

I think it’s this - could be wrong….

Looks like you need a COP near 1.75 at 5F in the north. So Mitsubishi is listing its hyper heat units.

https://cee1.force.com/sfc/servlet.shepherd/document/download/0697V00000MubqrQAB

I worry that the people who qualify for the income based rebates may be priced out of those units even with the up front rebates. And those that can afford those units may not qualify for the rebate due to income. They can still get a $2k tax credit though.

But I also understand not wanting to highly encourage people to use heat pumps as the sole heating to then be disappointed on the few coldest days of the year. Most people don’t have wood stoves. We’ll see how it all works out.

 

[EbS-P]

I think it’s this - could be wrong….

Looks like you need a COP near 1.75 at 5F in the north. So Mitsubishi is listing its hyper heat units.

https://cee1.force.com/sfc/servlet.shepherd/document/download/0697V00000MubqrQAB

I worry that the people who qualify for the income based rebates may be priced out of those units even with the up front rebates. And those that can afford those units may not qualify for the rebate due to income. They can still get a $2k tax credit though.

But I also understand not wanting to highly encourage people to use heat pumps as the sole heating to then be disappointed on the few coldest days of the year. Most people don’t have wood stoves. We’ll see how it all works out.

I think that’s it! But I need to spend more time to understand what’s it’s says.

 

[woodgeek]

I appreciate the sleuthing here.

I looked up the specs on my 2014 vintage 'SEER 16' 4 ton, single speed Goodman split ASHP.

It has a nominal COP of 2.29 at 5°F and a the BTU output ratio for 17°/47°F is 59%.

IOW, my 'nice-ish' HP from 2014, with no fancy tech at all QUALIFIES for Tier 1 for Northern states for 2023!!

So, what is going on? It's possible that the testing regime for these numbers has changed... the real world COP I get at 17°F is not 2.29, it is closer to 1.7-1.9 due to defrosting losses (my own estimates).

But I think it is more likely that, contrary to my (our?) hopes and dreams here in the Green Room, the IRA is not going to mandate the latest HP tech. It makes an incremental change in disqualifying SEER 14 (or lower) tech. I suspect that the upfront cost of a SEER 16 versus 14 compressor IS made up on a TCO basis.... That was my calculation when I replaced a dead 14 compressor with a 16.

Honestly, at current kWh prices for the SEER 20 system (like Carrier Infinity), I would save about $500/year at most (maybe a 30% reduction in kWh). Given that the installed price of that system is $8-10k more, the simple payback would be at least 15 years in my area. So in hindsight, it is clear that they will not mandate such a system until up-front prices come down FIRST.

Contrary to what some 'anti govt' types might think, efficiency mandates are usually required to be 'stupid cheap' on a TCO basis before being enacted.

Of course, in areas with higher heating demand and much higher electricity costs, <cough> NEW ENGLAND <cough> the payback on an Infinity system would be closer to 5 years. If I lived there I would go for the Infinity (or equivalent) and be happy for the rebate (except I think I earn too much to get the full amount).

But just bc New England has crazy electricity prices is not sufficient to mandate higher eff equipment throughout the US North. If there are currently builders putting crappy ASHPs in houses in New England, this might be a good move.

TL;DR. Assuming the IRA rebate requirements are represented by the attached document, they are merely an incremental nudge in efficiency.

 

[EbS-P]

I appreciate the sleuthing here.

I looked up the specs on my 2014 vintage 'SEER 16' 4 ton, single speed Goodman split ASHP.

It has a nominal COP of 2.29 at 5°F and a the BTU output ratio for 17°/47°F is 59%.

IOW, my 'nice-ish' HP from 2014, with no fancy tech at all QUALIFIES for Tier 1 for Northern states for 2023!!

So, what is going on? It's possible that the testing regime for these numbers has changed... the real world COP I get at 17°F is not 2.29, it is closer to 1.7-1.9 due to defrosting losses (my own estimates).

But I think it is more likely that, contrary to my (our?) hopes and dreams here in the Green Room, the IRA is not going to mandate the latest HP tech. It makes an incremental change in disqualifying SEER 14 (or lower) tech. I suspect that the upfront cost of a SEER 16 versus 14 compressor IS made up on a TCO basis.... That was my calculation when I replaced a dead 14 compressor with a 16.

Honestly, at current kWh prices for the SEER 20 system (like Carrier Infinity), I would save about $500/year at most (maybe a 30% reduction in kWh). Given that the installed price of that system is $8-10k more, the simple payback would be at least 15 years in my area. So in hindsight, it is clear that they will not mandate such a system until up-front prices come down FIRST.

Contrary to what some 'anti govt' types might think, efficiency mandates are usually required to be 'stupid cheap' on a TCO basis before being enacted.

Of course, in areas with higher heating demand and much higher electricity costs, <cough> NEW ENGLAND <cough> the payback on an Infinity system would be closer to 5 years. If I lived there I would go for the Infinity (or equivalent) and be happy for the rebate (except I think I earn too much to get the full amount).

But just bc New England has crazy electricity prices is not sufficient to mandate higher eff equipment throughout the US North. If there are currently builders putting crappy ASHPs in houses in New England, this might be a good move.

TL;DR. Assuming the IRA rebate requirements are represented by the attached document, they are merely an incremental nudge in efficiency.

They redid the tiers to get mor units to qualify and are now using SEER2 and HSFP2 which assumes a 0.5” WC total static pressure. The effect I read is a 4% reduction SEER to SEER2. Just enough that old 14 Seer units won’t be able to be installed in the south.

I’m disappointed but understand the reasoning. Manufactures were involved so I’m not surprised this is how it went. This means that single speed compressors units qualify greatly reducing the cost.

My 2009 -16 SERR unit has a COP17 of 1.85 Package units get different standards (from what I quickly looked at ).

So going but to my point on previous thread these rules mean heatpumps are aimed at mass adoption not cold weather performance or top tier efficiency.

What we really should be talking more about the the solar tax credit extension but that’s old news.