Lest you thought that whole climate thing was solved already....

woodgeek Posted By woodgeek, Jul 13, 2017 at 6:14 AM

  1. woodgeek

    woodgeek
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  2. Seasoned Oak

    Seasoned Oak
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    I like the GM bolt ,tons of range and i could probably power my house for a week if the grid went down. Got to love 240 miles of EV driving.
     
  3. Seasoned Oak

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  4. vinny11950

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    Yeah, I read it when it first came out. It depressed me even more than I already was about climate change.

    I don't think our current capitalist economic model is going to work in the age of climate change. Current capitalism requires permanent growth - make more, sell more - have more people to make more and sell more. You can't eat, live or reproduce if you don't contribute to the current economic system. China and India have huge populations - that is their human capital - that creates wealth to the top. It is all geared to grow. Unfortunately changing this system is not going to happen anytime soon. It will require some serious pain to get people to realize it's not working and then it is not guaranteed that the correct choices will be made after. I suspect society will break into groups of winners and losers. Losers die and winners live a very hot life, struggling to keep the human race alive.

    I don't mean to exaggerate, but even the most simple, obvious changes to mitigate the issue trip us up.

    Getting off this planet and colonizing other livable worlds may be the best option to keep the species alive.
     
  5. WoodyIsGoody

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    Yes, very good article. I'm sure our tweeter-in-chief would say it's fake news.

    I have long thought we should take drastic and immediate action on climate change. This would cause a massive transfer of wealth from the idle rich to the people who actually work for a living designing and installing solutions as the economy would be unavoidably disrupted (not necessarily in a bad way) during the sudden shift from oil to renewables. Coal has been dying for a long time and it has little to do with pollution or GW. But instead we sit on our collective asses and elect people who want us to keep sitting on our asses.

    I have also long believed drastic climate change is coming even if humanity stopped burning fossil fuels completely and immediately. There is a natural time lag between cause and effect. But the drastic climate change that is coming will be much less (although still drastic) if we stop carbon now. The article was good to highlight the warming gasses locked in the millions of acres of permafrost. When that is released it's going to be a cascading effect that will hit humanity straight in the face so hard and so fast that the deniers will feel stupid (but only until they rewrite history and highlight their (non- existent) long-standing support for green policies). Then there will be a flurry of articles "explaining" that, by the time we really understood climate change it was already too late. Never mind that this was known as early as the 1920's but that oil greed, greed of material wealth, blocked action by sowing seeds of doubt and pitting the people against one another. Imagine the outcome of WWII if the Nazis had been able to pit conservatives against liberals as effectively as big money interests have today! We would live in a world where all men were equal unless they were not white and Aryan. But, as it stands now, we are entering into an era where all men are created equal unless you don't have enough wealth to afford the drastic solutions that will be necessary to live in relative comfort in a post AGW world. And with rulings like Citizen's United, the strength of big money interests over that of the common man continues to grow.

    It's high time that ALL patriotic Americans united and took up a war, not a silly war on drugs or a misguided war on terror, but a real war, a war on the biggest and most dangerous, most insidious threat we have ever faced, a war on man made climate change. Those who are traitorous in this war on AGW should be charged with treason. We are living in dangerous times.
     
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  6. Seasoned Oak

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    Its not about politics ,most politicians cant see past their current term. We have a system of gridlock that seems to be getting worse. I think a change to a renewable carbonless economy would outstrip the computer in job creation and economic opportunity. A few smart folks with money will see it as a good investment.
     
  7. vinny11950

    vinny11950
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    Woody, while I agree with a lot of your points in this issue, calling people with opposing views on this issue traitors is not productive and just makes progress that much harder.
     
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  8. Seasoned Oak

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  9. WoodyIsGoody

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    I didn't call anyone a traitor. I said we should have an official war against AGW and that people who actively interfered with the war should, under US law, be deemed traitors to their nation and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

    During WWII there were a good number of German Americans who thought Hitler was good and right. It was an actual crime to do business with him or help his war machine or refuse to serve your country when conscripted. People were rightfully persecuted as traitors to their country if they assisted him, whether that be providing him useful information or actual hard goods. The enemy we face now is at least as much of a threat and we need to stop denying how serous the consequences to our Country and even civilization itself. Every American should be conscripted to fight this war and traitors who actively undermine the war effort should be prosecuted as they always have in America during times of war.

    Progress on tackling climate change is not hindered because I have strong views, it's hindered because moneyed interests have worked hard to confuse the true nature of the threat and to pit one side against the other. What we need is clarity on the risks and unity as a nation to tackle this most serious threat. And once we have that, the minority who stubbornly refuse to admit it's a real threat and actively work against the war effort and our national interests, should be prosecuted. Just like every war.
     
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  10. begreen

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    The gridlock is intentional as is the divisiveness. Keeps the masses busy while the country gets looted. You are right. The effort to retool America and the world would mean massive investment and productivity. An economy based on this premise could be very promising.
    This is worth a read for options:
    http://www.drawdown.org/
     
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  11. EatenByLimestone

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    Wow, what a bunch of Debbie Downers. I'm gonna go pop a top and convert some half dried pine into carbon dioxide and water. Maybe have a bowl of ice cream. Anybody want to join me?




    Fwiw, in my 40 years I've seen drastic improvements in the environment.
     
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  12. WoodyIsGoody

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    True, we've made massive improvements regarding toxins, soot, and things that make people, animals and trees sick. Much healthier in those respects.

    But in terms of the composition of the atmosphere, gases that cause global warming have been on a steady march upward. CO2 emissions in the US are flat to slightly down in recent years due to cheap natural gas and less coal, even so, we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at a rate that will cause catastrophic global warming. And global CO2 emissions are still increasing overall. And this is a bigger threat to our health and welfare than soot and toxins ever were. Actually, to our very existence.

    I like to look at the bright side of things too but I'm not sure how realistic that is when the elephant in the room is so big.
     
  13. begreen

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    Locally a lot has improved also, but we are talking large, global systems here. It's like comparing local weather to global climate. The big picture is what is important. The planet's health is declining, rapidly. There are many warning signs. When the permafrost melts a massive climate feedback loop is amplified. Giant ocean systems like the great barrier reef are dying. The planetary species extinction rate is high and accelerating due to climate change. These are hard to ignore facts.

    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/the-great-barrier-reef-is-doomed,10501
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27022017/global-warming-permafrost-study-melt-canada-siberia
    http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/digitaaldepot/20040108nature.pdf
     
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  14. Seasoned Oak

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    Its vicious cycle ,when too much fresh water enters the atlantic from the thaw the global ocean conveyor may stop, triggering wide variations of temperature between the equator and the north atlantic. Failing to cool the equator and warm the north to even out temps. Many fish species are already 90+ % decimated. When do the alarm bells go off for those in the fishing industry and Govt ,at 99.9% or 100% ?
     
  15. Seasoned Oak

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    I do see the heat zone thing happening already, its getting to be more summer days are unbearable to be outside than winter days. I work out side in the summer and i have to allow for a certain number of days where its just too hot and humid and just retreat to indoor work. Also i v been able to do outdoor work right up until Xmas most years lately. I dont ever remember airports being shut down for long periods of time due to high air temps .
     
  16. Doug MacIVER

    Doug MacIVER
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    yep, loved the beginning with the false flood? end of article, I recently found. two years old but fits imho.
    "
    But by now you can get an idea for the major outlines of an environmental hysteria. The steps are: a) start with assumption that man is “ravaging the Earth,” b) latch onto an unproven scientific hypothesis that fits this preconception, c) extrapolate wildly from half-formed theories and short-term trends to predict a future apocalypse, d) pressure a bunch of people with “Ph.D.” after their names to endorse it so you can say it’s a consensus of experts, e) get the press to broadcast it with even less nuance and get a bunch of Hollywood celebrities who failed Freshman biology to adopt it as their pet cause, then finally f) quietly drop the whole thing when it doesn’t pan out—and move on with undiminished enthusiasm to the next environmental doomsday scenario.

    When men fail as entirely as they have—well, I’m not going to ask them to fall on their swords. But we might ask them to understand why, when they assure us their newest doomsday predictions are really, really true this time, we’re not inclined to believe a single word they say." http://thefederalist.com/2015/04/24/seven-big-failed-environmentalist-predictions/

    then from the ref. article "In between scientific reticence and science fiction is science itself. This article is the result of dozens of interviews and exchanges with climatologists and researchers in related fields and reflects hundreds of scientific papers on the subject of climate change. What follows is not a series of predictions of what will happen — that will be determined in large part by the much-less-certain science of human response. Instead, it is a portrait of our best understanding of where the planet is heading absent aggressive action. It is unlikely that all of these warming scenarios will be fully realized, largely because the devastation along the way will shake our complacency. But those scenarios, and not the present climate, are the baseline. In fact, they are our schedule."

    pretty much follows the predicted outline.

    with as much as man is involved with nature in this whole thing, one has to wonder if man will ever find the knob to turn down the temp. certainly old mom nature turned it up with last year's El Nino. <400ppm co2? methane from perma frost? cow farts? cap and tax C? ect,ect
     
  17. begreen

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    Classic cherry picking of single erroneous assumptions to make a point. I note that in that screed the author makes his own failed prediction:
    "Germany is about to be crushed by the massive cost of its renewable energy boondoggle."
    The difference from these single person predictions that he dug through and amped up way beyond their original importance is that the world's main body and vast majority of climate scientists are now expressing a common believe and theory of climate change. This is based on much more sophisticated science and magnitudes greater input and climate data than was capable of being processed even 20 years ago. To base his claims on four persons that got their predictions wrong is folly. For sure some earlier predictions have been off by the date, but that doesn't change the trends. Also, he makes a silly and very easy claim that I can make too. "Personally, I’m on record predicting another ice age—sometime in the next 10,000 years or so" Fine, I'll go on record and say that he is right, I agree. I'll also say that in 10000 years the poles will have reversed and man will be gone. Come back in 10,000 yrs. and tell me if I'm wrong.

    It would be one thing if the opposing side expressed concern about the planet and found it worth studying more in depth. But now it is all attack journalism (and I use that word very loosely) with the sole goal of discrediting that which they oppose. This does not help at all. Yes, there are alarmists and yes they may have a cloudier crystal ball than some, but for Tracnski to say that those alarms about the effects of DDT or acid rain were false and the outcomes were none existent is not only wrong, ignores that those alarms stopped significant environmental harm and that what he is observing from this lofty perch are the benefits of acid rain reduction and the return of many species that were on the brink of extinction. He also ignores the fact that DDT failed due to overuse, insects developing resistance, and the fact that DDT was getting stored and accumulating in the fats of animals including humans. FWIW, malaria is virtually non-existent now in America and DDT is still used carefully in some places of the world for malarial control as a last resort.

    So yeah, a few people got some stuff wrong, that's always the case, regardless of one's politics. The point of science is not to be perfect, but to be self-correcting. As we get more data and input it appears that the body of serious climate scientist and environmentalists on the whole are doing a decent job. Naysayers and challenges are good, but when they come from industry pundits trying to obscure, deflect or distract for profit, the result often isn't good and certainly not helpful.
     
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  18. sportbikerider78

    sportbikerider78
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    What do you mean by growth? Markets and products are constantly dynamic. All are in a state of rising and falling all at the same time.

    Capitalism is all about supply and demand. Demand creates markets. Companies meet those demands with products. People need things and are willing to work for them to keep the fruits of labor.

    Capitalism has made our country rise above the rest....I can get an education, support a family, have free time, work in an air conditioned office and challenge my mind. I'm not about to throw that out because someone thinks something else might be better.

    What is the alternative?
     
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  19. sportbikerider78

    sportbikerider78
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    How can you be doom and gloom and have another thread open about which half ton pickup truck to buy? Trucks consume tons of gas and towing anything like a camper you're lucky to get 2-5 miles/gallon going up any incline.

    I do not understand. How can you say the earth is dying because of man and then buy a pickup truck?
    https://www.hearth.com/talk/threads/half-ton-pickup-redux.162312/
     
  20. woodgeek

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    I'll take this one: because life goes on. :rolleyes:

    We do what we can do and hope for the best.

    I for one am not into shaming anyone.....ok maybe the mgmt of major oil companies and climate deniers....but private citizens without any big guns...nope.
     
  21. begreen

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    I'm not going to crawl into a hole and stop living. We do the best to keep our footprint small. A pickup truck is a tool we use for gathering wood, moving compost, taking yard waste to the transfer station for composting, etc.. The amount of time it will be used for camping is about 20% of it's mileage. The truck will see few miles outside of needed usage. Our current truck is a 1994 with 61,000 miles on it. We use the Volt for all daily driving and that runs on the sun 6 months of the year. And we use public transit frequently.

    That simply isn't so with modern 1/2T pickups. Friend's ecoboost Ford drops down to 12mpg, climbing up the grade to Steven's Pass at 4000 ft and quickly jumps up to 25+ heading down the other side, with camper. Minor inclines have little effect. A strong headwind or driving over 65mph has a greater effect.
     
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  22. Highbeam

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    Pretty much. If you don't know any better, you think the ocean is small and that my bottle cap will make a big difference when it falls overboard.
     
  23. Seasoned Oak

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    Im driving one too (pickup)(. The earth will not live or die on my choices alone. I see lots of dual wheel and and F250s 350s taking their kids to school. doing daily driving groceries ect. Probably only a realistic fuel prices will curb that kind of behavior. The earth wont die, but some of the people may. Fracking is what is stalling adoption to electric thru low gas prices.
     
  24. Seasoned Oak

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    The ocean is BIG ,and the problem is BIG ,like the size of texas. One of the many floating garbage areas is north of hawaii is reported to be the size of texas. Imagine how much sank to the bottom!
     
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  25. vinny11950

    vinny11950
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    What do you mean by growth? Markets and products are constantly dynamic. All are in a state of rising and falling all at the same time. Sorry if I wasn't clear. I mean that lending money and making investments require a rate of return, which means if I lend you $100 I expect $106 in return (or whatever the rate of return is). That is growth. So the person who borrowed the $100 has to sell more, get more efficient or do both to earn the $6 extra to pay back the loan. On the macro level you see this in the growth of GDP. We are at all times high and it will keep growing so people and companies can pay back those loans with interest. This goes for just about everything in society - real estate, capital investments, personal loans, etc. If you can't grow the economy, then paying back those loans with interest becomes impossible, and you start getting deflation which brings a lot of pain because people lose value on their investments, homes, and banks then don't want to lend as much. This then leads to higher unemployment, default rates, and financial pain all around. So the system is made to grow to avoid the pain. Which means more economic activity and more carbon dioxide in the air, which, I believe, will make global warming worse.

    Capitalism has made our country rise above the rest....I can get an education, support a family, have free time, work in an air conditioned office and challenge my mind. I'm not about to throw that out because someone thinks something else might be better. I am a big supporter of capitalism, it has proven itself to be the champion economic system. But capitalism should not be reason for society. Capitalism should bend to the needs of society, not the other way around. For example, we shouldn't allow unsafe working conditions, or child labor. What's the point of having all these great material things, if we make the earth uninhabitable to humans in 100 years.

    Also, I don't think capitalism is the main reason our country is great. Our country has been made great by investing in people, infrastructure and ideas. It is no coincidence that since WWII government has spend so much money on education, social programs, basic infrastructure and our economy has flourished. That's because all those investments allowed generations of people to be creative, work hard, and create new goods and services. Invest in people if you want your country to be great.

    That's why it is crazy to have to argue that mercury in the water is bad. That pollution in the air is bad.

    We can keep our economy growing (higher GDP) and become less dependent on carbon fuels. But the political will is not there yet.
     

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