Like the Henry clay quote, winter forecast "18-19!

[Doug MacIVER]

As usual he is usually one of the first. Interesting science. the analog I hate 2014-15, cold, tons of snow, and ice dams? gonna need three ton of brick this year!
https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2018-19-august-outlook

 

[Doug MacIVER]

here is the ncep model !?!

 

[Ashful]

here is the ncep model !?!
View attachment 228810

@Poindexter is going to lose his bragging rights, if that map turns true.

Got that map in terms of forecast average temperatures, rather than just a delta off the average, for those who don’t have the averages already memorized?

 

[Poindexter]

I think that could happen. A couple winters like that would thaw a bunch of permafrost and seriously damage miles and miles of highway up here. i don't know if it will be this year, but I won't be surprised to see something like that in my lifetime.

 

[sportbikerider78]

The prediction for here was way more snow then normal. It was a normal winter.

 

[Ashful]

The prediction for here was way more snow then normal. It was a normal winter.

Same here, they predicted we’d be buried in snow last year, but it never happened. Last winter here started off abnormally cold around Christmas, but then was freakishly warm in February. Like nice fall day warm, for several weeks, in mid-winter. It got cold again in March, and remained cool thru April and May.

 

[Knots]

As usual he is usually one of the first. Interesting science. the analog I hate 2014-15, cold, tons of snow, and ice dams? gonna need three ton of brick this year!
https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2018-19-august-outlook

How's his track record?

 

[Doug MacIVER]

How's his track record?

I would say fair to above ave. He certainly is at odds the OFA, for sure. Has been saying all year the 60 day flips, cold to hot to cold ect.

 

[begreen]

here is the ncep model !?!
View attachment 228810

That heat up in Siberia, Alaska and Greenland is most concerning. NOAA comparison.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

That heat up in Siberia, Alaska and Greenland is most concerning. NOAA comparison.
View attachment 228874

should you be concerned about Antarctica this winter?


inc the meantime you mention Greeland. tomorrow who knows, today ,here is the latest!

 

[begreen]

Let's hope it stays that way. The arctic this year has not fared well. Most CO2 accumulation is in the northern hemisphere where most industrialized civilization exists.

 

[fbelec]

2015 up here we got 3 storms 3 days apart from each other all with almost 3 feet a piece. i quit plowing because of it and unless i read it wrong he is saying it could be the same as 2015. YIKES

 

[sportbikerider78]

I would love a mild winter. Trying to sell my house in the snow belt.

 

[Knots]

I would say fair to above ave. He certainly is at odds the OFA, for sure. Has been saying all year the 60 day flips, cold to hot to cold ect.

I vaguely remember reading a comparison of OFA predictions versus the actual winter. It wasn't good, which was why I asked about this guy's record.