New Englands back on burning Oil for power

[peakbagger]

Taking a look at Iso New England, the gas supply limitations into the area are quite obvious today

https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/charts

Normally oil is a percent or two and gas is much higher. When you see this shift to oil it means the demand for natural gas for heating is eating up much of the capacity. Gas for heating (and other uses) is usually what is called "firm gas". Firm gas suppliers have paid to "own" a certain volume of a pipeline and be guaranteed space in the pipeline when the demand gets high. They pay for the space even if they don't need it all the time and its costly. When there is less firm demand the owners of this space rent it out to other users on an "interruptible" basis with the understanding that the firm gas supplier can shut them off if the demand goes up, the gas is cheap as the buyers arent stuck paying for the volume year round. Pipeline companies dont want to build pipelines unless someone is willing to sign firm gas contracts and power plants arent interested in signing those contracts as it makes them non competitive when there isnt a shortage.

The solution during cold weather is crank up older oil fired generation (which is far less efficient) like the 800 MW Wyman Station in southern Maine. It only makes sense to run it in very cold weather but it does have big tank of oil ready just in case. There are also a few coal fired plants that can be cranked up in the region but they are rapidly being shut down. The final backup is to run gas turbine peakers on #1 fuel oil (similar to kerosene), they are located all over new england as backup power plants in case of grid interuptions but also can be run in if the power rates are high enough. They also run on #1 from on site tanks. This works unless there is stormy weather along the coast as the #1 comes in by barge. Things can get dicey on an extended long cold snap.

In the background ISO has contingency plans to reduce demand, economics also factor in, a factory buying power can elect to stop buying power at the very high rates. One firm I know of has on site generation and when the power rates get high ehough they shut down production and sell the power for a higher profit.

 

[CaptSpiff]

Yeah,...but not like a few years back when New England ISO (running the grid) was a single event away from instituting rotating blackouts in the middle of the coldest days/nights of the season. Sucks in the Summer, but deadly in the frigid Winter.

What's the status on the pending pipelines? Last I heard there were 3 proposed lines to bring in cheap "fracked" natural gas. Is New England still taking the "burn the life boats, and stay the course" path, or is there middle ground?

 

[peakbagger]

I am not aware of any major new pipeline capacity on the books currently. There were a couple of big ones that got canceled in 2017. There are several proposals to import power from Canada including one in VT that has all the permits. Northern Pass in NH has a federal permit but is awaiting a state permit and the inevitable litigation that will arise once the decision is made.

ISO can pretty well make powerlines happen and has to ensure system reliability, and has tried to get permission to encourage gas line development with no success. There is no similar public entity that controls gas supply reliability to a region.

 

[CaptSpiff]

I hope that one has better luck than the 1000Mw DC cable that is/was under construction from Canada via Champlain/Hudson ending in Astoria NYC. The only pull from the mud that will get is if Indian Point NPS is really taken offline.

But back to the NG pipelines, I wasn't aware they were officially cancelled. I really had high hopes for New England getting off the Home Heating Oil addiction.

 

[Brian26]

I posted in another thread that the oil fired plant in New Haven has been running full bore. Looking at the ISO New England graph for the past few days there was a few times that power hit $300+ a MWH (1000KWH). So that means they are selling power on a wholesale level at .30KWh? Not sure on the capacity on the New Haven plant but they would be making a fortune on selling at that price. I drive by the plant on a daily basis and its sits idle like 90 percent of the time.

 

[spirilis]

So we're sitting awfully pretty down here in MD with my net cost of 10.5 cents/kwh even during the winter...

Dang, never knew how fragile the northeast grid situation was.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

So we're sitting awfully pretty down here in MD with my net cost of 10.5 cents/kwh even during the winter...

Dang, never knew how fragile the northeast grid situation was.

$.25137/KW ON NASTY GRID, BUT THAT IS THE DELIVERED PRICE! happy new year

 

[EatenByLimestone]

My electricity is around a quarter per delivered kWh also.

Driving around, all the rooftop solar arrays are covered still. No help from that direction!

 

[vtwoodheater]

VT closed a nuclear power plant. Now burning oil to make power?! Awesome. How green is that?

Great. Gas and HHO is $2.50 and diesel $3/gallon. Makes sense. Save the planet at all cost.

 

[woodgeek]

VT closed a nuclear power plant. Now burning oil to make power?! Awesome. How green is that?

Great. Gas and HHO is $2.50 and diesel $3/gallon. Makes sense. Save the planet at all cost.

42 years is 2 longer than the design originally called for. Nothing lasts forever.

 

[peakbagger]

What most folks dont realize is Vermont utilities didnt own much of Vt Yankees capacity. It was located a very short distance from the Mass state line on the Connecticut river (which it used for cooling). Most of the power went into Mass but avoided the NIMBY in western Mass. Most of the power in VT has been coming from Hydro Quebec for several years. Nukes were difficult to site in Mass due to lack of substantial rivers fro condensing. I think the rest of the Mass nukes used ocean water cooling. I t will get more interesting in future winters during cold snaps as the Pilgrim nuclear power plant is scheduled to close next year. Hydro Quebec has offered to supply as much power to New England as it wants to buy, the problem is the dams are hundreds of miles away and large overhead transmission lines are quite vulnerable to weather and human caused outages. The existing DC line that runs along the NH VT border got knocked out by a couple of folks target shooting a few years ago, the resulting outage caused ratepayers to pay millions in additional costs to replace the power. In 1998 a large part of the southern Quebec grid got wiped out and took a couple of years to get fully restored. There are also proposals to build new power plants in Nova Scotia and run the power across the Gulf of Maine.

There was proposal to locate a large natural gas plant at the old Vt Yankee site, but that went away when the new gas line proposed to run through the area was canceled.

 

[vtwoodheater]

I know the power made by VY was never really used in VT. I guess the point was: why are we burning oil to generate power? What does that do to your carbon footprint? I don't believe in the manmade market of carbon credit trading. It resembles bitcoin to me.
Ever done one of those online carbon footprint calculators? What a joke.

 

[LocustPocust]

Most of the power went into Mass but avoided the NIMBY in western Mass.

They also demanded the Mount Tom coal power plant closed. Now they pay ridiculously high electricity prices for the privilege of having to import another state's coal generated electricity.

 

[woodgeek]

I know the power made by VY was never really used in VT. I guess the point was: why are we burning oil to generate power? What does that do to your carbon footprint? I don't believe in the manmade market of carbon credit trading. It resembles bitcoin to me.
Ever done one of those online carbon footprint calculators? What a joke.

I got this one. Until the surge of gas production a couple years ago, they would have ramped up coal plants during weather like this. Now that the coal plants are shut down, they ramp up the gas as far as they can, and then call the oil man.

The carbon emissions per kWh are likely higher than they were last month, but still lower than they were 10 years ago. And in a few weeks, the oil burners will go back to sleep.

Two (or three) steps forward, one back, is how progress works.

 

[peakbagger]

I know the power made by VY was never really used in VT. I guess the point was: why are we burning oil to generate power? What does that do to your carbon footprint? I don't believe in the manmade market of carbon credit trading. It resembles bitcoin to me.
Ever done one of those online carbon footprint calculators? What a joke.

Its a choice, use cheap relatively clean interruptible natural gas 330 days a year and burn oil on the cold days or pay a premium to buy firm gas year round to cover the cold days, or roll the dice and let the canadian's trash their backyard generating power from arguable dirty hydro. There have been plenty of attempts to build new gas lines into the region but no one is willing to sign a contract for firm gas to guarantee it gets built . Vermont looked at building a few local biomass power plants to supply local power in Springfield and southern VT but the locals fought them down. Act 250 is a strong tool of NIMBYism. The major pipeline developers have basically now taken a wait and see approach, they figure one or two winters of this and New England is going to be screaming for gas and be willing to sign on the bottom line. Of course the current administration is opening up New England for off shore drilling so maybe they will just run a pipe in from offshore.

 

[Marshy]

Subscribed, I'll have to come back and read, looks interesting. I wonder how much higher the demand will be after the closure of Indian Point.

 

[jackatc1]

Massachusetts goes for broke highest gas prices in the world.

http://naturalgasnow.org/anti-pipeline-massachusetts-goes-broke-highest-gas-prices-world/

 

[Marshy]

I hope that one has better luck than the 1000Mw DC cable that is/was under construction from Canada via Champlain/Hudson ending in Astoria NYC. The only pull from the mud that will get is if Indian Point NPS is really taken offline.

But back to the NG pipelines, I wasn't aware they were officially cancelled. I really had high hopes for New England getting off the Home Heating Oil addiction.

I think it's more of a case that they never got authorized to build more so than they were canceled.

42 years is 2 longer than the design originally called for. Nothing lasts forever.

That's not why VY closed. Politics and the public's perception can make or break a nuclear plant. Same reason Indian Point will be closed. Primarily political on that front but they have had more than a couple plant issues which does not paint them in a good light publicly. They are scheduled to close as they have not been able to get their renewed licence (again, for political reasons). Once they shut down NY will be in the same life boat as VT, burning oil and gas or buying power from Canada. Not a if but when. The proposed pipelines to supliment the lost generation from Indian Point would require it passing through NYC or just north of it. It would take an act of God at this point to get the necessary permissions to build it. I think what will happen is PA build more gas plants and sell NY power.

 

[georgepds]

....
That's not why VY closed. Politics and the public's perception can make or break a nuclear plant......

That's not what the owner said:

"On August 28, 2013, Entergy announced that due to economic factors, notably the lower cost of electricity provided by competing natural gas-fired power plants, it would cease operations and schedule the plant's decommissioning in the fourth quarter of 2014.["

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermont_Yankee_Nuclear_Power_Plant

 

[peakbagger]

Entergy has been looking to dump the liability of old nuclear plants for a couple of years. They tried to sell their plants to a dummy corporation to shed liability but it wouldnt fly. The amount of money they set aside is inadequate to decommission VT and their "plan" is to let it sit for as long as 50 years while the money set aside and grows. The latest gambit is get a special purpose company with limited assets to buy the plant and decommission it using their experience in managing other projects. They claim to be able to do it cheaper and they will make a profit on the money already set aside. Sounds great except that if they run over, there are no assets to attach to finish the work.

The major natural gas line that the region was banking on was going to run through western mass and then run just south of the Mass/NH border. They did a poor job with PR and didnt tell the locals they were sending out surveyors to lay out the line until the surveyors were knocking on doors. The project came out in the press and the locals went wild. They then tried to run it through southern NH and that stirred similar sentiments. Some firm gas customers came up with reasons why they weren't going to sign a contract so the developer elected to cancel the project. PNGTS has a potential upgrade on their line from Quebec to Portland maine that has been looking for contracts for firm gas for a couple of years with no takers. The new england governors association had talked about signing contracts that would backstop the developers so they didnt loose money if the demand wasnt there but when push cam to shove no state wants to sign it as it ties them into a potentially messy fight over right of way and exposes the states to millions of dollars of costs if the demand isnt there during the rest of the year.

Given whats going on I wouldn't be surprised if LNG doesnt come back in the picture as away of getting gas in the market.

 

[georgepds]

..... Given whats going on I wouldn't be surprised if LNG doesnt come back in the picture as away of getting gas in the market.

It is very scary watching a big tanker enter Boston harbor. I didn't know if any have come in for a while,but the Everett terminal is still active, and has been upgraded. Not sure if I ever saw it, but I think they have to go under the Mystic bridge to enter the terminal

I'm not the only one who thinks this way

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/2010/06/28/safe-harbor/

'Why is Boston the only major city with an LNG terminal? Because nobody else wants one. '


But, it's still being used.... "Built in 1971, the Everett LNG terminal in Boston, USA, joins the Group in 2000. As the largest LNG terminal in the country, it provides 20% of regional market demand for natural gas."

"The terminal now receives LNG from a number of different countries, and in 2010 received its 1,000th LNG carrier to set a new US record." I remember when Libya was the source ( back when Quadaffi was still around)

https://www.engie.com/en/news/50-years-of-lng-everett-terminal/

 

[peakbagger]

The worldwide demand for LNG rarely makes it competitive in New England except for times when there is a gas shortage.

 

[woodgeek]

My history teacher at BC HIgh would opine that those tanks in Dorchester (the ones with Ho Chi Minh painted on them) would flatten the city if they ever went up.

And then he would go on about the Great Molasses Flood of 1919. What a way for 21 souls to go.

I always hated History Class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Molasses_Flood

 

[Marshy]

"The trouble for New Yorkers - and for everyone in New England by extension - is that, as I reported back in April, Gov. Cuomo has spent his entire term in office demonizing natural gas. Not only did his administration take the extraordinary, completely unwarranted action of outlawing hydraulic fracturing operations in the state, the Governor himself has made a point of personally working to obstruct the building of much-needed new pipeline capacity to bring natural gas from the Marcellus Shale into the state from Pennsylvania and West Virginia, whose residents and state governments are profiting immensely from oil and gas operations."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidb...obstruction-is-costing-new-englanders-dearly/

 

[Marshy]

My history teacher at BC HIgh would opine that those tanks in Dorchester (the ones with Ho Chi Minh painted on them) would flatten the city if they ever went up.

And then he would go on about the Great Molasses Flood of 1919. What a way for 21 souls to go.

I always hated History Class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Molasses_Flood

I read about this disaster during my engineering studies. Lots of changes were made because of it.