Not buying pellets this spring.

[bogieb]

We went up now from 1.29 to 1.83 in two weeks. Midwest has gotten the worst hit. Nymex has went from .93 to 1.30. Most speculators think crude will get back into the 40's and probably stay there into 2017. Fracking can make money again with oil in the 40's so the market is thought that's the stabilizer.

$1.53 is the lowest I've seen and that was last Saturday at the cheapest place I know of in a 30 mile radius of my house. I'm ecstatic if it stays under $2, so not complaining.

 

[Bioburner]

I won't complain much if it stays under $2. Have a couple camping trips planned and pulling a trailer is not kind to mileage.

 

[TimfromMA]

I won't complain much if it stays under $2. Have a couple camping trips planned and pulling a trailer is not kind to mileage.

I hear that. I just bought my first camper. It's 36' long and weighs approximately 8000lbs when fully loaded. I'm hauling it 1300 miles to Florida in April.

 

[Bioburner]

Hope you get a tail wind. Your kind of backwards going south in the spring. I am going south to KY first week of April. Love the flea markets and all the spring flowers and Loratadine.

 

[TimfromMA]

Got school age kids so we have to work around school vacations.

 

[tiger]

and saved the space in the basement.

Not a small issue for me. I'm down to 1.5 pallets, probably going to finish the season at right around one pallet, and now need to decide whether to get one or two more for the next season (I have a high efficiency gas boiler). Pellets do take up a lot of cube in my small basement.

Oil will go up, go down, or stay the same -- so far I don't think anyone has successfully predicted it. I don't use heating oil but would not be surprised if gasoline stations stop posting their prices out front and just say "download the app" so they can change pricing every 45 minutes.

 

[PinetreePellets]

We went up now from 1.29 to 1.83 in two weeks. Midwest has gotten the worst hit. Nymex has went from .93 to 1.30. Most speculators think crude will get back into the 40's and probably stay there into 2017. Fracking can make money again with oil in the 40's so the market is thought that's the stabilizer.

Have you seen the number of oil rigs that have been pulled offline in the states? from a high of 1,600 down to around 400. And new drilling has pretty much come to a holt.

 

[Pete Zahria]

I'm hauling it 1300 miles to Florida in April.

Hope you get a tail wind. Your kind of backwards going south in the spring

Yeah but the trip down is a breeze. Looking at the map, it's all downhill.
It's that ride home that is the killer... all uphill!!


Dan

 

[TimfromMA]

Hope you get a tail wind. Your kind of backwards going south in the spring. I am going south to KY first week of April. Love the flea markets and all the spring flowers and Loratadine.

Looks like I'm in good company in the backwards department.

 

[Wessty]

I just purchased next years pellets, LG premium @ 3.99 CAD. at Rona Cambellford ON. That's 2.90 USD.

 

[MuchoBueno]

Gas prices are still going lower and lower. It's just unbelievable. Right over the border into Jersey a gallon of 87 is $1.45 How low can you go?! I saw diesel for $1.69 on the highway yesterday! It's just incredible. I waited until pellet prices went down and they did. $199 a ton both at Lowes and HD, except that these guys don't advertise it. This pricing is strictly for your eyes only at the stores it seems. I think oil prices will NOT go up for at least a couple more years. Maybe more but I really don't think less than a couple more years. So I think I want to buy my ton at $179 from now on. Looking at the tons after tons of unsold pallets at all of the stores including Walmart, I think soon these guys will liquidate this years stock at 2010-11 prices. We will see...

 

[PinetreePellets]

Gas prices are still going lower and lower.

Oil has jumped 30% in the last 11 trading days... I think we will see a slow but gradual increase in gas/oil prices in the next 2-3 weeks if not sooner...

 

[TimfromMA]

My cheapest tank of gas so far was at $1.59 per gallon.

It certainly feels nice to fill up my 22 gallon tank for less than $35.

 

[MuchoBueno]

Oil has jumped 30% in the last 11 trading days... I think we will see a slow but gradual increase in gas/oil prices in the next 2-3 weeks if not sooner...

You're looking at 11 days and I'm looking at 11 months. Daily or weekly it fluctuates. Up down up down. It has been doing that and gradually going lower and lower. The trend overall seems to be going lower. But hey what do I know.

 

[MuchoBueno]

Oil has jumped 30% in the last 11 trading days... I think we will see a slow but gradual increase in gas/oil prices in the next 2-3 weeks if not sooner...

You say it jumped 30% in the last 11 trading days then you say we might see an increase in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Isn't 30% already an increase? I would check those figures, if I cared enough but as of now I'll go with my very expertly unproven probable monumental gut feeling with this one.

 

[alternativeheat]

You say it jumped 30% in the last 11 trading days then you say we might see an increase in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Isn't 30% already an increase? I would check those figures, if I cared enough but as of now I'll go with my very expertly unproven probable monumental gut feeling with this one.

I think he meant crude, the barrel price. It's trending up because we cut production big time. But we cut production partly on that fact that we had reserves, when those deplete watch the pump price go up.

 

[Edsson]

Just ordered oil for $1.40. Once the big box stores get their mulch and fertilizer shipping dates they will want to get the pellets the hell out of there. that's when I may get a ton or 2, depends on the condition of the pellets.

 

[MuchoBueno]

I think he meant crude, the barrel price. It's trending up because we cut production big time. But we cut production partly on that fact that we had reserves, when those deplete watch the pump price go up.

Oh ic. Increase from the crude going up. Got it now

 

[English BoB]

I have 2 x 275 gl tanks, one just reached a quarter on one so I switched to the other, only use for insurance and background heat if the house drops under 55 deg. Lowest price here is $ 1.79 so Iam going to wait it out before filling, I only use at max 1/2 tank on a bad year like the last one. I can afford to wait a while.

bob

 

[3650]

gas was 1.49 last night and 1.79 today. The local box stores are out of pellets. I'll be just burning corn. Bought another wood burner for the main floor so trying to get it installed. I'm looking for coal burner now. By the time I'm done ill be able to burn pellets, corn, cherry pits, sun flower seeds, wheat, wood, coal, propane and oh, there was that time I burned 40 lbs of dog food.

 

[Peterfield]

Oil has jumped 30% in the last 11 trading days... I think we will see a slow but gradual increase in gas/oil prices in the next 2-3 weeks if not sooner...

Based on what exactly. Almost every industry analyst and oil futures broker disagrees with your "analysis."

 

[PinetreePellets]

Almost every industry analyst and oil futures broker disagrees with your "analysis."

umm ok

 

[bogieb]

Noticed a gas station I pass on the way to work was at $1.59 at 5 am yesterday. Going back home it was $1.63 around 4:30 pm. Wonder if it is heading back up (even a little), or just a blip.

I posted this yesterday and on the way home the price had gone up again. Didn't pay attention to it this morning but wouldn't be surprised if it increases again by the time I go home tonight.

 

[Peterfield]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/01/investing/us-oil-production-near-record-opec/

One or two day price swings will not be the salvation of pellet producers. Pellets are a commodity, just like oil. With the Chinese economy still tanking, Saudis trying to break the back of US production, and the Iranians about to flood the already saturated oil market with crude, oil is going to stay down for some time and no amount of "the sky will fall" rationalizing will prop up unreasonable price points on pellets. Doesn't mean I'm not going to burn pellets, but no way I'm spending $300 a ton for them. Guy down the road, a performance tire business, is selling pellets, too. Blackstone pellets out of CT for $200 a ton. Good pellet. Not losing money doing so. Yet, other vendors are selling the same pellets anywhere from $229 to $269 to $289 a ton. Who's kidding who. Buyers markets now and should remain so for some time. This season I've paid $250 for one ton and no more than $200 a ton for the rest I've bought.

 

[mass_burner]

Buy as much as you can and lock in for as much as you can because after the election is over we are in in for a good old fashioned XXXXXXX by the oil companies.

ETF: UHN, appears to have bottomed out at 9.75, now 11, was 35 last summer. Check it out.