NY natural gas ban update

[semipro]

What evidence do you have that it is undependable? Large data centers will require reliable power. Unless they get priority status (which they might) I don’t think an ultimatum company could say yes we will have that capacity by then and let reliability drop.

My data points are Texas where lack of regulation led generating stations unable to operate at low temperatures that were predictable within the life time of that equipment based on climatology. During this time many natural gas customers we affected by low pressure due to increased demand. Then they lost power. Just because you haven’t experienced this doesn’t mean it is a not an issue. It must be supplied with some pump.

And California whose large scale deployment of solar and batteries has increased their reliability.

And North Carolina Christmas Day. 2023. Link here

Making sure infrastructure is capable of cold weather operation is not affected by demand changes. This a utilities obligation with oversight from regulators.

If I was in charge data centers would be on the top of load shedding list. With appropriate planing data loads could be shifted to other parts of the country.

Assuming what's shown below is based on good data... This is for outages that affect 50k customers or more. Given that trees falling on lines is a major cause of outages, I'd posit that rates in rural (especially wooded) areas where fewer customers are served would be even higher.



To be honest, I was just basing it on my anecdotal observations where we live. We've had like 5 outages this year already.
Things are not looking good in my home state of Virginia. We just became a net importer of grid energy earlier this year, and many large data centers are planned. From a project I recently worked on, I can tell you that many of the DoD facilities located in VA are very concerned about grid reliability and are investigating alternatives. Many of those planning data centers are considering generating their own power on-site for reliability. (One such solution involving former 747 engines) As much as small modular reactors (SMRs) are touted, my sources say that their implementation is still likely 10 years out.

Interesting side note: when our grid does go down, our backup power, comprising solar PV and battery switches over so quickly that we often don't notice. A text from our power provider is usually our first indication. I typically follow up by sticking my head out the back door to see if I hear my neighbors' whole-house generator running.

 

[begreen]

The graphic is misleading.

The amount of earth/rock that needs to be moved for mining and energy extraction are very different. For fossils, coal beds are dense, and oil and gas only require a drilled hole. Each mass of metal is present as a small fraction in a large volume/mass of ore.

Yes, it simplifies, but the gap is still huge. There are additional costs to drilling or fracking, fluid management, transport, refining, transport again, etc. for gas and oil too that may not be included.

 

[Tonty]

Car are not made to run 20 years. They are made to be cheap as possible and get the through the warranty period. Consumers won’t pay the premium for a vehicle that will last 200k+ and 20+ years.

Old thread, I know. I finally logged in after months of being away. This is the problem I have with new car technology. There are six vehicles on our yard (well, seven, but the seventh one doesn't count right now because it's going through a resto). The newest one is a 2015 and the oldest one is a 1990. The all have over 100,000 miles on, with the family daily driver having 330,000 miles. What is more, I am rebuilding an engine for the 330,000 miler so that I don't have to buy a different vehicle. I'm probably insane.

 

[begreen]

I agree, if anything it seems like many cars are lasting longer as long as they are properly maintained. I'm surprised at how many used cars are selling with >200,000 miles on them and they still look good.

 

[all night moe]

What is more, I am rebuilding an engine for the 330,000 miler so that I don't have to buy a different vehicle. I'm probably insane.

Nahhh.....

 

[DSSA]

I appreciate personal freedom, but sometimes we have a duty to protect consumers from their own ignorance. 'Common sense' is often not good enough, as this forum has taught me. Burning treated wood for indoor heating, running generators indoors, and tossing live wood stove ash outdoors come to mind.

There are going to be people who are dumb enough to still risk life and limb without knowing it, regardless of what 'rules' our overlords institute...

This whole thread has been an interesting read. Seeing where we were "the science has been decided" to now seeing some things change.

I guess I'm one of those "still open to either side" people who are waiting and weighing things as they progress and I can see independent data. The "proven to be coming" Ice Age everyone was screaming about in the late 70's turned into "Global Warming" that was 'scientifically proven fact' turned into "Climate Change", which we're also now seeing evidence that it was over-blown as to how much we, as a species contribute to it.

I've been involved in the automotive industry since 1996, so it's interesting to see where things are at, and where they are going. That being said, currently, my newest car in the family (13 cars currently on the property) is a 2016 (wife's) with 170K on it (4 cylinder crossover, AWD, with a POS CVT transmission). It's gutless, absolutely soulless to drive, but has decent room, is good in the snow, and gets 30mpg. The next newest is a 2003 4WD SUV with 103K. They start going back in time from there (oldest being a 1947 Lincoln Continental).

I am DREADING buying my wife a new car which is looming. We wouldn't buy new again (she wanted a *new* car the last two times, now she's over it). I've owned *1* new car in my lifetime (and have owned close to 100 cars at this point), which I purchased as a test mule/design platform for my company. I kept it for about a year and 1/2 and sold it with 3500 miles on it to a guy who races superbikes professionally.

I have almost *0* interest in newer cars (that I can afford), and can't stand all of the "driver aids" that they're loading into them. I still prefer a decent performing car with minimal input, and being mostly 'analog'. I'd consider an hybrid for my wife's decent commute each day, but am nowhere near willing to buy a full EV for her.

Car diatribe aside, I agree that *some* things need to be regulated (*SOME* being the key word), but I've also seen rampant stupidity happen via "well-meaning, government regulation". Anyone remember the ban on childrens ATVs and Motorcycles? You know, because the battery in the contain lead, and Little Johnnie may decide to disassemble the vehicle and then chew on the terminals.... What about the stupid non-venting gas caps that prevented gas vapors from escaping and harming the environment, but make you spill three times that amount whenever you use them to fill small equipment, and deform the gas cans themselves from heat and contraction? How about those great ethanol decisions? Just give the farmers subsidies if need be, but you're not helping the environment with all of the equipment that crap gas has ruined, and the carbon footprint of making all of the new equipment/repair parts, far outweighs the benefits.

I'd *LOVE* to go full solar to replace my relationship with the power company, and burn only wood to heat the property (I'm currently working on the latter, and researching the former). But, at my age (51), I realize that the window of making such investments and seeing any ROI are quickly diminishing. Generally, government insistence/policy, combined with the large corporations quickly capitalize on anything they can to make 'breaking up with them' an expensive proposition in any manner they can.

 

[EbS-P]

There are going to be people who are dumb enough to still risk life and limb without knowing it, regardless of what 'rules' our overlords institute...

This whole thread has been an interesting read. Seeing where we were "the science has been decided" to now seeing some things change.

I guess I'm one of those "still open to either side" people who are waiting and weighing things as they progress and I can see independent data. The "proven to be coming" Ice Age everyone was screaming about in the late 70's turned into "Global Warming" that was 'scientifically proven fact' turned into "Climate Change", which we're also now seeing evidence that it was over-blown as to how much we, as a species contribute to it.

I've been involved in the automotive industry since 1996, so it's interesting to see where things are at, and where they are going. That being said, currently, my newest car in the family (13 cars currently on the property) is a 2016 (wife's) with 170K on it (4 cylinder crossover, AWD, with a POS CVT transmission). It's gutless, absolutely soulless to drive, but has decent room, is good in the snow, and gets 30mpg. The next newest is a 2003 4WD SUV with 103K. They start going back in time from there (oldest being a 1947 Lincoln Continental).

I am DREADING buying my wife a new car which is looming. We wouldn't buy new again (she wanted a *new* car the last two times, now she's over it). I've owned *1* new car in my lifetime (and have owned close to 100 cars at this point), which I purchased as a test mule/design platform for my company. I kept it for about a year and 1/2 and sold it with 3500 miles on it to a guy who races superbikes professionally.

I have almost *0* interest in newer cars (that I can afford), and can't stand all of the "driver aids" that they're loading into them. I still prefer a decent performing car with minimal input, and being mostly 'analog'. I'd consider an hybrid for my wife's decent commute each day, but am nowhere near willing to buy a full EV for her.

Car diatribe aside, I agree that *some* things need to be regulated (*SOME* being the key word), but I've also seen rampant stupidity happen via "well-meaning, government regulation". Anyone remember the ban on childrens ATVs and Motorcycles? You know, because the battery in the contain lead, and Little Johnnie may decide to disassemble the vehicle and then chew on the terminals.... What about the stupid non-venting gas caps that prevented gas vapors from escaping and harming the environment, but make you spill three times that amount whenever you use them to fill small equipment, and deform the gas cans themselves from heat and contraction? How about those great ethanol decisions? Just give the farmers subsidies if need be, but you're not helping the environment with all of the equipment that crap gas has ruined, and the carbon footprint of making all of the new equipment/repair parts, far outweighs the benefits.

I'd *LOVE* to go full solar to replace my relationship with the power company, and burn only wood to heat the property (I'm currently working on the latter, and researching the former). But, at my age (51), I realize that the window of making such investments and seeing any ROI are quickly diminishing. Generally, government insistence/policy, combined with the large corporations quickly capitalize on anything they can to make 'breaking up with them' an expensive proposition in any manner they can.

I would absolutely buy any used Toyota hybrid without a turbo. Their planetary electronic CVT is practically bulletproof. It should’ve heralded as the best automotive innovation in the last 40 years. The 2026 Highlander is still using nickel metal hydride batteries. I also think in a multi car family there should be an EV.

 

[DSSA]

I would absolutely buy any used Toyota hybrid without a turbo. Their planetary electronic CVT is practically bulletproof. It should’ve heralded as the best automotive innovation in the last 40 years. The 2026 Highlander is still using nickel metal hydride batteries. I also think in a multi car family there should be an EV.

Were I to buy her a hybrid, I would be looking at buying a Toyota, despite the "Toyota" tax.

Her current car is a Mitsubishi with the crappy JATCO CVT used by Nissan and Mitsu. It started going bad at 90K, and despite working with Mitsubishi for going on 20 years, it happened RIGHT before the 100K mile warranty was up (91K), and RIGHT after Nissan dictated that they would be more *SELECTIVE* in CVT replacements. Their "benchmark" was that the trans computer had to kick troublecodes before they'd consider warranty. It would slip and indicate belt failure for the next 9K miles and at 101K it FINALLY kicked a trouble code when I drove it to the end of our long driveway for the tow truck to pick it up. At that point, it would barely move under its own power.

After a week or so of fighting with them, they agreed to cover the transmission, but not the labor. Luckily, I'm friendly with Parts and Service Director of the dealer group who owns the Mitsubishi dealer that I work with regularly, and they offered to do it (labor) for just the salary of the employee who was replacing it.

I now change the CVT fluid every other oil change (4500 miles, synthetic) to squeeze as much life out of this one that I can.

 

[semipro]

I've also seen rampant stupidity happen via "well-meaning, government regulation".

I'll add one to your list and take issue with another.
MTBE was added to gasoline to achieve cleaner exhaust emissions. We later found it to be a super polluter when introduced into groundwater via leaking underground storage tanks.

What about the stupid non-venting gas caps that prevented gas vapors from escaping and harming the environment, but make you spill three times that amount whenever you use them to fill small equipment, and deform the gas cans themselves from heat and contraction?

I fully support unvented gas cans because they help preserve the quality of the fuel I use in the at least 15 infernal combustion engines we have about our place. Vented cans allow the more volatile, lower molecular weight constituents in gasoline to evaporate away, leaving the heavier parts behind. Look in the bottom of any carb bowl that's been sitting a while to see what's left behind when the volatiles evaporate. Some refer to it as varnish. The lighter fuel portions are what enable your equipment to start in cold weather. For me, it's my wood splitter and chainsaws. I install cheap vents in the cans to aid with fueling, but close them for storage. (below)

 

[DBoon]

I now change the CVT fluid every other oil change (4500 miles, synthetic) to squeeze as much life out of this one that I can.

You are kind of making the case for an EV without realizing it

 

[woodgeek]

There are going to be people who are dumb enough to still risk life and limb without knowing it, regardless of what 'rules' our overlords institute...

This whole thread has been an interesting read. Seeing where we were "the science has been decided" to now seeing some things change.

I guess I'm one of those "still open to either side" people who are waiting and weighing things as they progress and I can see independent data. The "proven to be coming" Ice Age everyone was screaming about in the late 70's turned into "Global Warming" that was 'scientifically proven fact' turned into "Climate Change", which we're also now seeing evidence that it was over-blown as to how much we, as a species contribute to it.

I've been involved in the automotive industry since 1996, so it's interesting to see where things are at, and where they are going. That being said, currently, my newest car in the family (13 cars currently on the property) is a 2016 (wife's) with 170K on it (4 cylinder crossover, AWD, with a POS CVT transmission). It's gutless, absolutely soulless to drive, but has decent room, is good in the snow, and gets 30mpg. The next newest is a 2003 4WD SUV with 103K. They start going back in time from there (oldest being a 1947 Lincoln Continental).

I am DREADING buying my wife a new car which is looming. We wouldn't buy new again (she wanted a *new* car the last two times, now she's over it). I've owned *1* new car in my lifetime (and have owned close to 100 cars at this point), which I purchased as a test mule/design platform for my company. I kept it for about a year and 1/2 and sold it with 3500 miles on it to a guy who races superbikes professionally.

I have almost *0* interest in newer cars (that I can afford), and can't stand all of the "driver aids" that they're loading into them. I still prefer a decent performing car with minimal input, and being mostly 'analog'. I'd consider an hybrid for my wife's decent commute each day, but am nowhere near willing to buy a full EV for her.

Car diatribe aside, I agree that *some* things need to be regulated (*SOME* being the key word), but I've also seen rampant stupidity happen via "well-meaning, government regulation". Anyone remember the ban on childrens ATVs and Motorcycles? You know, because the battery in the contain lead, and Little Johnnie may decide to disassemble the vehicle and then chew on the terminals.... What about the stupid non-venting gas caps that prevented gas vapors from escaping and harming the environment, but make you spill three times that amount whenever you use them to fill small equipment, and deform the gas cans themselves from heat and contraction? How about those great ethanol decisions? Just give the farmers subsidies if need be, but you're not helping the environment with all of the equipment that crap gas has ruined, and the carbon footprint of making all of the new equipment/repair parts, far outweighs the benefits.

I'd *LOVE* to go full solar to replace my relationship with the power company, and burn only wood to heat the property (I'm currently working on the latter, and researching the former). But, at my age (51), I realize that the window of making such investments and seeing any ROI are quickly diminishing. Generally, government insistence/policy, combined with the large corporations quickly capitalize on anything they can to make 'breaking up with them' an expensive proposition in any manner they can.

Loads of fun, used EV crossovers out there nowadays at amazing prices. Instant torque, amazing 0-60 times. Easy startup and quick heat in cold weather. Your wife would love one. Happy wife happy life.

And given that the drivetrain is pretty bulletproof, all the maintenance on it you can do yourself easy peasy. You sound handy like you can install a cheap EVSE to keep the thing charged up.

Just test drive one, brother, before you decide. Look at MachE premium trim or the Volvo Recharge C40 or XC40

And 51... payback on solar is <10 years many places. If you can't see yourself living past 61 then you need to get in shape. Go for the solar (if it pencils out) and then let the wife drive on sunshine. 🌈

 

[DSSA]

Loads of fun, used EV crossovers out there nowadays at amazing prices. Instant torque, amazing 0-60 times. Easy startup and quick heat in cold weather. Your wife would love one. Happy wife happy life.

And given that the drivetrain is pretty bulletproof, all the maintenance on it you can do yourself easy peasy. You sound handy like you can install a cheap EVSE to keep the thing charged up.

Just test drive one, brother, before you decide. Look at MachE premium trim or the Volvo Recharge C40 or XC40

And 51... payback on solar is <10 years many places. If you can't see yourself living past 61 then you need to get in shape. Go for the solar (if it pencils out) and then let the wife drive on sunshine. 🌈

51 coming from a family where my father passed via his second major heart attack (after quad-bypass surgery and valve replacement @ 34), and having already had a stroke (finding that can be worse than the heart attack issue I expected). That, and a wife who wants to retire in the next 8-9 years and is talking about selling this property and moving to warmer climes, which I'm not certain I'm on board with (I like my wooded 10 acres and 7000+ sq/ft of garage/shop space), but I'll certainly entertain 'wintering' somewhere warmer.

I've driven many EVs and some hybrids, and rent them regularly when I head out to La Jolla, CA to visit family (for obvious fuel-pricing reasons). Yes, the instant torque and acceleration are impressive, but that gets boring quickly...just like most of the newer ICE cars have become to me. I absolutely HATE the digital BS aspect of them. It's not the same as the old timers talking about "that ther new-fangled Fuel Injection stuff", in that I can't work on it/find it confusing...I just don't like it.

Prime example, my holy-grail of cars is the 1987-1993 F-40. I've driven cars that would outperform it in almost every metric that could be measured via stopwatch or g-force meter, and it was a car that was built that almost went backwards in technology. It was raw, it was obnoxious...no bluetooth, you basically pull a cord to open the doors, there was no traction control, no yaw control, no ABS, no power steering, just the driver, and some good engineering. Many cars today would shame it in performance metrics, but there's a reason that it's commanding astronomical figures to purchase it.

Now, on the logic/economical side, with me being a curmudgeon in this realm and insisting on owning a plethora of older cars, when we buy her something new, it will probably have to also be used for travel trips (she'll balk at us taking my 400whp, 1992 Galant VR4, for example). While I could probably wire up a solar system to charge an EV, even in SoCal, I find them to be a PITA for the charging time. Chargers are all over the place (but at a premium, like everything else energy-related in CA), but I typically find myself charging it while at the local grocery store, come out, and find that if I want to charge it past 3/4, I'd have to sit there for another 30-45 minutes. I can't imagine the PITA it would be to drive one over a long trip, so that makes me lean more towards a hybrid. I'd probably push us towards looking at a newer Camry Hybrid w/ AWD (AWD is almost a neccesity for us), or a used Rav4 hybrid. *Economically* I love driving in electric mode, and then when it goes 'combined', I'm still getting 40-45 mpg, and the Camry hybrids I've driven (FWD only), haven't been all that bad.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I’m more FJ40 than F-40.

 

[woodgeek]

I've driven many EVs and some hybrids, and rent them regularly when I head out to La Jolla, CA to visit family (for obvious fuel-pricing reasons). Yes, the instant torque and acceleration are impressive, but that gets boring quickly...just like most of the newer ICE cars have become to me. I absolutely HATE the digital BS aspect of them. It's not the same as the old timers talking about "that ther new-fangled Fuel Injection stuff", in that I can't work on it/find it confusing...I just don't like it.

I'd probably push us towards looking at a newer Camry Hybrid w/ AWD (AWD is almost a neccesity for us), or a used Rav4 hybrid. *Economically* I love driving in electric mode, and then when it goes 'combined', I'm still getting 40-45 mpg, and the Camry hybrids I've driven (FWD only), haven't been all that bad.

How you started on EVs are boring and ended on Camry's are great?

I guess its all the use case. Different Strokes.

 

[EbS-P]

Prime example, my holy-grail of cars is the 1987-1993 F-40

I was taking cars with my very wealthy brother in law. He’s done the rich guy car thing. From hand built Italian to F650 to choppers now drives a Tesla X. he asked me what car he should “invest” in. F40 I said. His reply was that for 2 million he didn’t see the value . So I came back with GT3 RS (or what ever GT3 met your level of comfort). He thought that’s was a better choice.

 

[bholler]

Maybe because it's the green new scam? It's always been a scam. Hey, the big guy in Cali is still pushing it!

But why would we voluntarily give up our market share in a large growing market like that? It makes no sense at all.

 

[begreen]

Maybe because it's the green new scam? It's always been a scam. Hey, the big guy in Cali is still pushing it!

But why would we voluntarily give up our market share in a large growing market like that? It makes no sense at all.

Dumb Californians. Heaven forbid that we actually get cleaner air and less pollution. Why would anyone want that?

California's Love Of EVs Really Has Made Its Air Cleaner, Study Claims - Jalopnik

Using NASA satellite data, researchers studied 1,687 different "ZIP code tabulation areas" and found that EVs contributed to a drop in nitrogen dioxide levels.

www.jalopnik.com