NY natural gas ban update

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What evidence do you have that it is undependable? Large data centers will require reliable power. Unless they get priority status (which they might) I don’t think an ultimatum company could say yes we will have that capacity by then and let reliability drop.

My data points are Texas where lack of regulation led generating stations unable to operate at low temperatures that were predictable within the life time of that equipment based on climatology. During this time many natural gas customers we affected by low pressure due to increased demand. Then they lost power. Just because you haven’t experienced this doesn’t mean it is a not an issue. It must be supplied with some pump.

And California whose large scale deployment of solar and batteries has increased their reliability.

And North Carolina Christmas Day. 2023. Link here

Making sure infrastructure is capable of cold weather operation is not affected by demand changes. This a utilities obligation with oversight from regulators.

If I was in charge data centers would be on the top of load shedding list. With appropriate planing data loads could be shifted to other parts of the country.

Assuming what's shown below is based on good data... This is for outages that affect 50k customers or more. Given that trees falling on lines is a major cause of outages, I'd posit that rates in rural (especially wooded) areas where fewer customers are served would be even higher.



To be honest, I was just basing it on my anecdotal observations where we live. We've had like 5 outages this year already.
Things are not looking good in my home state of Virginia. We just became a net importer of grid energy earlier this year, and many large data centers are planned. From a project I recently worked on, I can tell you that many of the DoD facilities located in VA are very concerned about grid reliability and are investigating alternatives. Many of those planning data centers are considering generating their own power on-site for reliability. (One such solution involving former 747 engines) As much as small modular reactors (SMRs) are touted, my sources say that their implementation is still likely 10 years out.

Interesting side note: when our grid does go down, our backup power, comprising solar PV and battery switches over so quickly that we often don't notice. A text from our power provider is usually our first indication. I typically follow up by sticking my head out the back door to see if I hear my neighbors' whole-house generator running.

 

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The graphic is misleading.

The amount of earth/rock that needs to be moved for mining and energy extraction are very different. For fossils, coal beds are dense, and oil and gas only require a drilled hole. Each mass of metal is present as a small fraction in a large volume/mass of ore.

Yes, it simplifies, but the gap is still huge. There are additional costs to drilling or fracking, fluid management, transport, etc. for gas and oil too that may not be included.