NYTimes: Solar and Wind Energy Start to Win on Price vs. Conventional Fuels

[Redbarn]

This is interesting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/24/b...rt-to-win-on-price-vs-conventional-fuels.html

The cost of electricity from wind and solar power plants has plummeted, making it in some places cheaper than coal or natural gas.

 

[woodgeek]

the wind power I buy has been a penny/kWh cheaper than my conventional choice for 22 months and counting....

 

[Dune]

This is awesome.
Batten down the internet hatches, I am going live with this one.

 

[vinny11950]

make sure you contact your congress people and ask them to fight to renewable energy tax credits. there is a big fight brewing over all sorts of tax breaks and wind is being cut out.

i know renewables are becoming less dependent on tax credits, but every little helps. can't have enough energy from diversified sources.

and conservation credits too would be nice.

 

[Where2]

The cost of electricity from wind and solar power plants has plummeted, making it in some places cheaper than coal or natural gas.

Probably explains why my utility wants to add 110MW of additional solar to their generation facilities. Then after their lobbyists cripple net metering, they'll continue to collect fuel costs on delivering a product with no fuel cost.

The irony of this article hitting the news is that I bought my panels for $0.78/W in December 2011. Prices have not drastically shifted downward in the interim. Cell efficiencies have increased a few percentage points, but not enough to sell what I have on CL and buy new.

As for tax credits, I'm sure my utility will get a hefty one for installing solar. Me, not so much...

 

[vinny11950]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/william...ctricity-renewable-energys-ticking-time-bomb/

This article above attempts to throw some cold water on the Times article arguing that the way they compare the MWh is not accurate because energy generation is so different between renewables and traditional power plants. It points out that power plants make mucho bucks during peak load times where renewables don't.

Seems to me the argument holds some water but also doesn't account for the ability of people to modify their behavior to the options available. Given enough time and options, consumers will change how they use energy if it means savings, independence and reliability.

Again, I am not saying baseload power plants don't have a place, they do, a very big one, but so do renewables, and we should treat them all as our basket of options to power our needs. Diversity is key. Once you commit to one option the owners of that option have all the pricing power over you. No good.

 

[woodgeek]

Color me skeptical. Rates peak during summer AC periods just when local PV is peaking too. As more people switch to elec heat, we can expect winter peak loads to go up, usually during a cold wave when wind power is a maximum.

Many baseload plants run 24/7 w/o throttle....guess what they get....the average price.

The flip side of this logic is that a subset of generators, mostly with inefficient natgas fired, rapidly throttled equipment are currently making plenty of profit at the margins of the elec market, by charging ridiculously high fees for short periods. Grid-tie solar is disproportionately hurting these folks (because the 20% capacity factor of PV consistently hits their peaks), and so the peakers are leading the anti-solar charge.

I think the article has the logic reversed.

 

[Dune]

W

Color me skeptical. Rates peak during summer AC periods just when local PV is peaking too. As more people switch to elec heat, we can expect winter peak loads to go up, usually during a cold wave when wind power is a maximum.

Many baseload plants run 24/7 w/o throttle....guess what they get....the average price.

The flip side of this logic is that a subset of generators, mostly with inefficient natgas fired, rapidly throttled equipment are currently making plenty of profit at the margins of the elec market, by charging ridiculously high fees for short periods. Grid-tie solar is disproportionately hurting these folks (because the 20% capacity factor of PV consistently hits their peaks), and so the peakers are leading the anti-solar charge.

I think the article has the logic reversed.

Why are people switching to electric heat? In New England the switch has been away from electric heat for decades.

 

[woodgeek]

New England, Upstate NY and the Upper Midwest are exceptional. Everywhere else in the US 'heat' basically means natural gas or a heat pump. With the improvement in heat pump technology over the last decade, ASHP penetration have been creeping northwards, and making major inroads to places without gas service.

Bottom line: its a lot cheaper to operate than oil or propane.
Also: in regions where people 'expect' central AC....builders find it easy/cheap to put in an ASHP instead of an AC + furnace.

 

[Dune]

New England, Upstate NY and the Upper Midwest are exceptional. Everywhere else in the US 'heat' basically means natural gas or a heat pump. With the improvement in heat pump technology over the last decade, ASHP penetration have been creeping northwards, and making major inroads to places without gas service.

Bottom line: its a lot cheaper to operate than oil or propane.
Also: in regions where people 'expect' central AC....builders find it easy/cheap to put in an ASHP instead of an AC + furnace.

I had an apartment building with electric heat only.
I could never get tenants to stay a second year after they got the first winter's heat bills.
Even with my brother being a gasfitter and myself in the HVAC trades it was cheaper to sell than retro-fit.

 

[woodgeek]

Before 200o or so, a lot of the push to (mostly resistance) electric heat was regional, with winter discounts by utilities that had a heavy nuke fraction. Gotta run them to amortize the huge nuke investment, can't throttle them on a daily basis....need more loads in the night and winter.

 

[vinny11950]

Here's an article by Amory Lovins making the point that renewables and efficiency are kicking ass!

http://energyblog.nationalgeographi...-renewables-disruption-of-electric-utilities/

And another article on misinformation:

http://energyblog.nationalgeographi...the-renewable-energy-disinformation-campaign/

The first article talks about utilities making bad investments and how they should not be subsidized for making mistakes by foiling better emerging technologies.