New Transmission Line in Northern New England

[peakbagger]

It has taken a few tries but looks like there will finally be a new transmission line between Quebec and Northern New England

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...ns-transmission-infrastructure-301971701.html

The concept is that Quebec province has excess hydro capacity (at least in the short term) and New England hopes to have excess power from offshore wind farms. The hydro quebec hydros are mostly ponded storage so they can effectively be used as "batteries" like the Norwegian hydros in Europe are used. The offshore windfarms will be far more dispatchable than conventional onshore wind but there is no way to store wind so the power line with the capability of one modern new nuclear power plant will allow higher penetration of renewables into the region. Unlike a competing private line in Maine that is struggling along, the Twin States line will be operated by the ISO New England grid, hopefully for the benefit of the electric power consumers compared to the owner of the private line. Quebec has access to more hydro generation but its costly to develop and without a long term customer they have been reluctant to start the process. My guess is that since New England is also short of natural gas that some natural gas power generated with more available Canadian gas may end up on the line on occasion until the offshore wind resource is developed.

 

[Brian26]

It's crazy how cheap electricity is in Quebec compared to NY/Boston. 1000 kwh cost $76 Canadian dollars.

 

[DBoon]

I always love the comparisons to "New York". This (and almost all other comparisons) are to "New York City". If I had to buy electricity, I would pay about $120 for 1000 kWh here in Central NY, about what Vancouver pays and less than Miami. As you go more east and south in NY, rates get higher. When you are close to hydropower and nukes (Central and Western NY) rates are lower.

 

[peakbagger]

It looked good while it lasted, even though the US kicked in 1.2 billion

National Grid Pulls Plug On Twin States Energy Project Disappointing Sununu - InDepthNH.org

Gov. Chris Sununu said he is disappointed the plug has been pulled on a proposed 1,200 megawatt bi-directional transmission project which would have brought Canadian hydro power to New England through New Hampshire and Vermont.

indepthnh.org

As mentioned, Hydro Quebec has changed their tune lately regarding the availability of plenty of green hydro. One study is that they are going to be short of generation in five years. The transmission line through Maine is still approved and I think they will be restarting construction this year (after a couple of years of court cases). Unlike the line that was cancelled, Mass committed to long term contract to buy power off the Maine line so the owners are guaranteed a profit. Good for the owners not so good for the ratepayers.

Whenever you see broad claims that an area is running out of power or natural gas, keep in mind that most of the time those claims are not entirely true. It usually it comes down to that it not profitable enough to justify the risk to take care of the need.

 

[woodgeek]

Or you could be more cynical, and say that National Grid gets more profit (fixed percentage) on higher revenue selling more expensive kWh. And has captured the local polity.

I'm still waiting for Yankees to take up pitchforks and torches. But instead they seem to have drunk the Koolaid, and patiently explain to folks in the rest of the country about how electricity is just so darn expensive. My generation cost is under a dime per kWh. As is the national average minus New England.

 

[peakbagger]

It pretty simple, New England has bet on carbon taxes and have priced them in, the majority of the country has not. They would rather elect folks into power to delay the inevitable.

 

[woodgeek]

It pretty simple, New England has bet on carbon taxes and have priced them in, the majority of the country has not. They would rather elect folks into power to delay the inevitable.

I don't follow. How do you 'price in' taxes that haven't been levied yet, and that have no prospect of ever being levied?

I guess I meta-agree. There is an 'old school' take that says that RE will always be more expensive that fossils, and the climate crisis will require carbon taxes for the US, and cash payments to developing countries for them to deploy RE. And there is a 'new school' take that learning curves will (or have already) make RE cheaper than fossils, even with battery storage. So market forces are strong enough to get us most if not all of the way, and developing countries will get there on their own.

I think the transition between these two thinkings was about a decade ago.

So I can suppose that the eco mindset of New Englanders is a decade out of date...

But I still think the utilities there, which must know better bc they see the price info, and talk to their counterparts outside of New England, are being willfully ignorant of the 'new school' and exploiting the old ideas as yet another spaghetti against the wall justification for their absurd profit taking.

 

[peakbagger]

New England created the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (REGI). Its a carbon tax on electric power generation. The money collected goes back to the states which in theory are supposed to spend the money on programs to reduce energy usage.

Had the EPA Clean Power Plan not been voided by the prior administration, REGI states would have been in good shape while states with that are not switching away from Fossil would have seen significant increases in their cost for generation as they would need to come up with lot more renewable power. Lots of states that were coal generation heavy got a big carbon benefit from the transition to natural gas, most of New England shut down the majority of coal generation about a decade earlier during the "gas bubble" so the big easy carbon reduction benefit was already gone. The problem is natural gas generation will not cut it if the US wants to meet climate protocols so states that have not been building out the renewable portfolio at some point need to write a big check. The political aspect is to use the same approach currently being used with most long term issues is dont deal with it, blame the other side and dealy the inevitable.

 

[ABMax24]

The Province of Quebec is very difficult to deal with at the best of times, they don't play well with the rest of the Canadian Provinces either.

But I think they've finally realized that they can't roll out EVs en masse and keep selling their surplus electricity to the states, as that surplus will no longer exist.

The Province of BC had a similar realization 4 years ago. The Site C dam was a hotly contested election issue, and the winning (socialist) party did so in part on a promise to cancel the project. Well after the election some one showed them a little bit of math, showing Site C only made up a small fraction of the required new electricity supply to convert the province to EVs. 4 years later the dam is still over a year away from completion and demand has outpaced supply in the province.

 

[begreen]

Looks like they were surprised by the cryptominers.

Are Quebec's Crypto Mines Here to Stay? – The Rover

At the dawn of a new energy crisis, each cryptocurrency mine eats through enough electricity to power entire cities. PHOTO: Jay Walker Rue Raimbault is a

therover.ca

 

[woodgeek]

New England created the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (REGI). Its a carbon tax on electric power generation. The money collected goes back to the states which in theory are supposed to spend the money on programs to reduce energy usage.

Had the EPA Clean Power Plan not been voided by the prior administration, REGI states would have been in good shape while states with that are not switching away from Fossil would have seen significant increases in their cost for generation as they would need to come up with lot more renewable power. Lots of states that were coal generation heavy got a big carbon benefit from the transition to natural gas, most of New England shut down the majority of coal generation about a decade earlier during the "gas bubble" so the big easy carbon reduction benefit was already gone. The problem is natural gas generation will not cut it if the US wants to meet climate protocols so states that have not been building out the renewable portfolio at some point need to write a big check. The political aspect is to use the same approach currently being used with most long term issues is dont deal with it, blame the other side and dealy the inevitable.

Huh. Googling leads to info that claims that RGGI has lowered electricity prices in the RGGI states on average. And includes PA, DE, NJ and DE, which all have cheap electricity.

So RGGI is specifically penalizing the New England states? Bc they have a gas based infrastructure? I didn't think the other RGGI states used a lot of coal either.

 

[bogieb]

I always love the comparisons to "New York". This (and almost all other comparisons) are to "New York City". If I had to buy electricity, I would pay about $120 for 1000 kWh here in Central NY, about what Vancouver pays and less than Miami. As you go more east and south in NY, rates get higher. When you are close to hydropower and nukes (Central and Western NY) rates are lower.

1,000 kwh would cost about $192 here - and that doesn't add in the ~$14 for the monthly charge just to be a customer..

 

[peakbagger]

Northern New England has always been "energy poor" the geology is mostly granite and the fuel to generate power was imported. That fuel was coal but that is no longer a player and a lot of natural gas generation did get installed for various mostly political reasons, natural gas transmission lines did not get built or upgraded into the region, so the only choice left is import "green" power from Quebec hydro (Its actually a blend of hydro and relabeled gas generation) or try to generate locally via renewables and they come at a premium. If the US grid does truly get decarbonized in the time scale needed to impact global warming, then the strategy may turn out to be a good one.

 

[peakbagger]

Looks like they were surprised by the cryptominers.

Are Quebec's Crypto Mines Here to Stay? – The Rover

At the dawn of a new energy crisis, each cryptocurrency mine eats through enough electricity to power entire cities. PHOTO: Jay Walker Rue Raimbault is a

therover.ca

Between server farms and cryptominers, there is whole lot of generation that needs to go on line and its a lot easier to look for stranded fossil generation assets that can be run in the short term than go with renewable. Google just went the nuclear option https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/04/amazon_acquires_cumulus_nuclear_datacenter/

 

[woodgeek]

I am thinking that New England is already lagging RE adoption relative to the rest of the country, using outmoded development concepts (jack up prices to reduce consumption, carbon taxes and redistribution (or their equivalent), unbridled NIMBYism) and (my speculation) good old fashioned corruption at the utility and state regulator levels.

Innocent customers in New England will just vote with their pocketbooks... high kWh prices will stymie retirement of oil boilers and adoption of heat pumps for space heat or hot water. Asking folks to pay 2-3X as much per kWh, and then giving them a fat state rebate on HPWHs is not as good as just giving them cheap power and no rebate. Because they will get a gas HWH or stick with their oil boiler instead.

Same for EV adoption in New England when kWhs cost MORE than gasoline.

To me it feels like the population and the politicians and the utilities are stuck in a pre-Paris or Obama or Bush era approach to solving climate change.

What happens if the rest of the country builds out tons of solar wind and batteries, starts electrifying everything (ASHP and HPWH), and EVs sell like hotcakes (at least outside of low density rural areas), AND their electricity is still cheap?

I know. New England will now say that big bad New York State won't let there be any HV lines be built to bring that cheap RE into New England, and Yankee NIMBYs will get totally cranked about big govt wanting to take their AWD Subarus away and building 'unsightly' wind/solar farms. And their utilities will continue to laugh all the way to the bank.

 

[EbS-P]

Residential use makes up 35% the electricity used. If we assume rates scale the same for residential commercial and industrial customers across different regions, then logic says commercial and industrial customers pay a larger share of the rebates than residential customers. In the end costs are born by the people who live in the region. People will pay premiums to live in certain neighborhoods, communities, states and regions. The separation of population's based on ideology is already happening.

 

[sloeffle]

This article dovetails into this thread about how we aren't building enough transmission capacity. I live near Columbus, property values have skyrocketed due Google, Amazon, and MS buying up huge tracts of land on the east side to build more datacenters.

 

[begreen]

This article dovetails into this thread about how we aren't building enough transmission capacity. I live near Columbus, property values have skyrocketed due Google, Amazon, and MS buying up huge tracts of land on the east side to build more datacenters.

This is bound to create more serious issues in the future as AI and Quantum computer usage grows.

 

[stoveliker]

And crypto currency...

 

[joop]

It's crazy how cheap electricity is in Quebec compared to NY/Boston. 1000 kwh cost $76 Canadian dollars.

View attachment 318136

and we still groan,lol

 

[joop]

really,b***h to groan lol

 

[peakbagger]

This is bound to create more serious issues in the future as AI and Quantum computer usage grows.

And sets up a Matrix like situation. AI is dependent on electric power, if an AI becomes "sentient like", its going to act in its best interest to continue to grow and it will naturally elect to pull what triggers it can to keep the power coming and will actively fight attempts to reduce its power supply. At this point roll the Terminator credits.

 

[woodgeek]

And sets up a Matrix like situation. AI is dependent on electric power, if an AI becomes "sentient like", its going to act in its best interest to continue to grow and it will naturally elect to pull what triggers it can to keep the power coming and will actively fight attempts to reduce its power supply. At this point roll the Terminator credits.

A fun vision. But can't I argue that such an AI would understand that it is just as dependent on humans as electricity? And then would staunchly defend humans to ensure its survival and propagation?

 

[peakbagger]

If you remember the Matrix, AI was dependent on humans for their survival. It was just how they were dependent that I expect most would object to.

 

[DBoon]

natural gas transmission lines did not get built or upgraded into the region

Isn't this the real reason power prices are so high in New England? An overreliance on natural gas generation coupled with a lack of foresight and/or resistance to upgrade natural gas pipeline capacity into New England? Also, I recall reading that the way that utilities can bid for pipeline capacity and then not use it means that natural gas prices can be driven to artificially high levels during peak usage periods.