Pellet Stove and other trends - by Google

[webbie]

WOW,

Google has a new feature called trends, and it can give you the history of any particular search term as well as the news cycle which relates to that particular item. See the enclosed chart, for instance, for some data on Pellet Stoves.

Notice how before Katrina there was almost no action - nor news stories. Look a the fall after Katrina, and then the downslope to the present day.

Look at the places (bottom) that search for that term most often.

A valuable tool for anyone who wants to spot the trend - and, as they say, "the trend is your friend".

 

[BrotherBart]

"Wood stoves" tracks right with it almost exactly. Most articles probably mentioned both.

 

[restorer]

I find it interesting the searching is so much higher in Ireland. I realize that heating alternatives are an issue, but it surprises me that Ireland would be so much more active. Were you able to get actual numbers, or are the bar graphs all. It would be impressive to see the number of searches actually made.

That also says something about the use of computers to do research in Ireland. It would be interesting to know the er captia use numbers in Ireland vs. USA/Canada.

 

[Jabberwocky]

what's the connection to Katrina? Actual power outage victims? Why would residents of LA and MS give a hoot about heating? Or was it people responding to the spike in oil and NG prices as a result of Katrina?

 

[wg_bent]

I'm responsible for those curves. They coincide with my searching for a wood stove perfectly. Next look at the trends for Wood fired ovens, and you'll find that I get the itch every year about this time.

 

[BrotherBart]

what's the connection to Katrina? Actual power outage victims? Why would residents of LA and MS give a hoot about heating? Or was it people responding to the spike in oil and NG prices as a result of Katrina?

As I marched to the rifle range in the snow in South Louisiana when I was in the Army I did a lot of thinking about heating.

 

[webbie]

what's the connection to Katrina? Actual power outage victims? Why would residents of LA and MS give a hoot about heating? Or was it people responding to the spike in oil and NG prices as a result of Katrina?

The weeks after Katrina were responsible for a rise in energy costs which fueled a new boom in Pellet stove sales and Wood Stove sales and interest. The media picked up on this - this is when I had the 3 page spread done on me in Kiplingers. Traffic to Hearth.com in Oct, 2005 remains our record-setter with about 450,000 readers that month alone.

 

[DaveR]

what's the connection to Katrina? Actual power outage victims? Why would residents of LA and MS give a hoot about heating? Or was it people responding to the spike in oil and NG prices as a result of Katrina?

The weeks after Katrina were responsible for a rise in energy costs which fueled a new boom in Pellet stove sales and Wood Stove sales and interest. The media picked up on this - this is when I had the 3 page spread done on me in Kiplingers. Traffic to Hearth.com in Oct, 2005 remains our record-setter with about 450,000 readers that month alone.

What is interesting is that direct combustion of biomass has greater acceptance in many European countries and Canada resulting from their commitments to the Kyoto Protocol and higher traditional energy costs. Residential and Commercial space heating was given some greater focus over converting biomass into liquid fuels or electric generation compared to U.S. policy which has focused mainly on liquid biofuels. It is interesting to compare per capita use of Direct Combustion Appliances for residential and commercial space heating between the U.S. and leading European nations. There is a substantial gap evident in markets as a global market for pelletized biomass emerges in energy markets and international trade grows. For a transition to renewable energy to be successful in free markets and democratic societies, average consumers and citizens must find some reason to embrace the technology. In the U.S. the technology has been embraced over the past several years as traditional energy costs for electricity, propane, heating oil, kerosene, and natural gas have dramatically increased and grown more volatile offering significant cost savings for many consumers choosing to use direct combustion appliances. Based upon the market penetration of direct combustion appliances in these European markets, growing concern over carbon dioxide emissions, increasingly stringent Federal and State EPA regulations and community ordinances on particulate emissions from fireplace and stove use, and continued volatility in global energy markets I would think trends would continue to benefit direct combustion appliances and especially multifuel pellet appliances capable of burning wood pellets, corn, or other renewable fuels.

While many complain about higher prices for wood pellets, corn, and other biomass fuels, costs for these fuels also increase with higher traditional energy costs because production and distribution costs for these renewable energy sources are somewhat dependent on traditional energy sources. Dynamic price comparisons are critical because static models looking back at prices for biomass 5 or 10 years ago neglect the real effect of higher energy costs on the cost of production and distribution. A static focus on prices for pellets and corn that does not reflect rising cost of traditional energy and maintain a dynamic cost comparison is less than accurate. Compared to Electric-resistance, propane, heating oil, and kerosene wood pellets and corn can still provide better value for residential heating applications. Natural Gas is the most competitive traditional energy source but is under increasing pressure from demand and supply curves and more volatile in present energy markets. Based upon global energy markets and domestic U.S. energy markets greatly affected by and vulnerable to hurricane activity along the Gulf Coast I would suspect sales of multifuel pellet stoves has good potential to grow at the expense of traditional wood burning appliances which likely will face increasing regulation and restrictions on particulate emmissions.

Active hurricane season again predicted for the U.S. and we may not be so fortunate to dodge the bullet again this year following the virtually nonexistant hurricane season last year. Oil prices projected by some to reach $70-$80/barrel increasing the cost of heating oil and propane for next heating season. Electric rates climbing ever higher around the country and especially in some Midwestern states all seem to favor the competiveness of multifuel pellet appliances capable of burning wood pellets and corn. Even with higher market prices for these renewable energy fuels used in direct combustion appliances, consumers can still find substantial savings on energy costs for residential heating. The industry needs to become more proactive in developing supply of acceptable fuels and promoting the cost savings and environmental benefits for millions of American homes who do not have access to natural gas for residential space heating.

The savings are still there when energy costs are compared from a dynamic rather than static perspective. Americans need to decide where they would prefer the benefit of their energy dollars to go. The free market is offering new choices in renewable energy. Energy dollars can be spent to benefit Foreign Energy Cartels, Tyrants and Dictators, Big Oil, America's Adversaries or with renewable energy initiatives like direct combustion of biomass American's can spend energy dollars to benefit independent American Companies, American Farmers, and Rural American Economies where most wood pellets, corn, and other biomass originates while saving on their own energy costs. Renewable Energy Alternatives have real potential to contribute to a Rural Renaissance across America with direct combustion technology for use in residential and commercial space heating offering maybe the greatest benefit because the benefits are more direct between energy producers and consumers. The choice is ours.

 

[webbie]

Sounds like a separate thread.....but:

1. Selling or pushing corn or pellet appliances at the expense of traditional wood stoves is, in my opinion, not a good thing...for many reasons.
2. You say "Compared to Electric-resistance, propane, heating oil, and kerosene wood pellets and corn can still provide better value for residential heating applications." I'm glad you use the word CAN in that sentence, since an actual direct BTU to BTU or total cost (upfront, maintaining, product life, etc.) is likely to be different in many cases.
3. The argument about supporting independent American companies will not go far - notice where just about everything else is made these days. People vote with their dollars based on the value received. I have no way of knowing whether the Pellet or lumber mill I buy from is owned by a tryrant, a wife beater or a bunch of nice guys from the Middle East.
4. So far we have largely dodged the bullet since I bought my first gallon of home heating oil for .1499 about 35 years ago. Given the odds, I don't think people will be scared into change.

Human nature being what it is, I don't expect that waving the flag will cause us to move en mass to biomass. It will take reliable units, coupled with reliable fuel supplies at reasonable prices. Anything else is just a fad. Look at those charts or even at Pellet Stove sales from 1990 to 2004 and you will see that they flat line when conditions are not right.

While I agree that some people will use biomass at almost ANY price, this represents a tiny part of who might use it at the RIGHT price.

Europeans, as you probably know, tend to think in a very green fashion...even the middle class and wealthy. It is somewhat of a mindset there, but not here. We see that it is starting to enter the public consciousness here, but the general attitude here is that we don't care to look at where our "stuff" comes from nor where it goes afterwards. We could call that "selfish" or we could call it uninformed, or we could call it uncaring....but it is still true. Having been beating my head against the wall since the late 70's with renewable energy (stoves/solar), I can say that in that time period (1979 to 2007), there has been little change. We went backwards for many years, and now we might start catching up to where we were in the late 70's.

The typical scenario is that we all build up these industries and then get the rug pulled out from underneath us when as soon as the Saudis and others sense some threat or competition. They can lower the price of oil to $15. a barrel and still make money, since it costs them well less than $5. to get it from the ground.

I see the "tipping points" as pellets over $295 a ton and as oil under $50 a barrel.....as long as neither of these are reached, the market should be at least decent (but not great). If oil stays over 75 with similar NG increases, and pellets/corn can stay under $250...that would bode well for a expanding market.

 

[Jabberwocky]

Sounds like a separate thread.....but:

I see the "tipping points" as pellets over $295 a ton and as oil under $50 a barrel.....as long as neither of these are reached, the market should be at least decent (but not great).

What's the tipping point for cord wood?

 

[Sandor]

The switch away from NG, propane or oil heating will not happen en mass until the product becomes unavailable, period.

The guy on the couch that heats his house with a flick of switch will join the lynch mob when the local heating oil company has no product to sell or the pressure in the NG lines reaches zero. Oh, and imagine what will happen to the grid when everyone runs out to buy a trunk load of electric space heaters so they can watch the ball game in a pair of shorts in their McMansion vacation home.

Or, he will consider viable options, and a pellet stove may fit the bill.

Most people fail to think ahead. They think the govt will somehow heat their 2900 sq/ft home on a North facing hill somewhere in VT. They think that fuel oil truck will be right over with 500 gallons while they watch a coup in Saudi Arabia unfold on CNN.

We would expect the Pellet Stove/Woodstove Google search hits to steadily increase in the face of excalating fossil fuel prices. Expect chaos if the flow of oil (or NG) is interrupted heading into winter.

The energy situation for the US is precarious, to say the least.

Ok, ok, rant over. (Your right Craig, maybe should have been another thread)

Now, I will call your new Google tool (for pellet/wood stoves) the shortsighted meter. If oil prices remain high at the end of summer, I would expect to see a gradual increase in searches. But, I think it will spike when the first sub freezing cold snap hits the NE and fuel oil is over 2 bucks a gallon.

Hmmm, the Heating Oil future contract for Nov 07 is 2.04/gallon.

 

[webbie]

What's the tipping point for cord wood?

These is none for those who collect their own, although use would decline if oil was cheap - say under $1.75 a gallon.

But for fuel wood I would say about $150-175 cord . That is the equiv of about $100 a ton if it were good hardwood, or $150 a ton for softwood.

Again, lots will still sell at higher prices, but this will be for the 1 cord a year crowd or luxury/recreational users. You will have vastly less folks buying and using 3-6 cords.

This is not speculation. It has already happened a couple times over my career with wood stoves. When fuel oil and NG were cheap, wood stoves almost ceased to exist - the sales figures went into the dumper.....if it wasn't for gas stoves and gas logs, our shop would have went out of business in the 1990s.

The Y2K scare saved wood stoves and brought them back into the public eye. Then we had a bump in fuel prices a couple years later. Then we had Katrina. If it was not for those events, we would not have the numbers and selection we have today.

 

[webbie]

Now, I will call your new Google tool (for pellet/wood stoves) the shortsighted meter. If oil prices remain high at the end of summer, I would expect to see a gradual increase in searches. But, I think it will spike when the first sub freezing cold snap hits the NE and fuel oil is over 2 bucks a gallon.

Hmmm, the Heating Oil future contract for Nov 07 is 2.04/gallon.

No doubt you are correct - the Google thing just shows what already happened! That is a Trend.

$2.04 is not bad....but since that is for a contract, I assume that would mean $2.50 for a low heating oil price?

That is about the same as Pellet Heat at $279. a ton, more or less....given newer efficient appliances in each case.

 

[DaveR]

Sounds like a separate thread.....but:

1. Selling or pushing corn or pellet appliances at the expense of traditional wood stoves is, in my opinion, not a good thing...for many reasons.

I see the "tipping points" as pellets over $295 a ton and as oil under $50 a barrel.....as long as neither of these are reached, the market should be at least decent (but not great). If oil stays over 75 with similar NG increases, and pellets/corn can stay under $250...that would bode well for a expanding market.

No one is selling or pushing corn or pellet appliances at the expense of tradtional wood stoves but strategic market trends may lead one to consider the potential for multifuel pellet appliances with emergency power backup to gain market advantage. Coming from a family who has relied on cordwood appliances for years as a backup heating source I can see opportunity for a natural market progression toward pellet appliances. Living in a rural community in the Midwest there is increasing concern for smoke and particulate emissions during the Fall and Winter months. Leaf burning is increasingly banned during the Fall and letters to the editor in local papers increasingly complain about smoke from fireplaces, stoves, and outdoor burners during the Fall and Winter. This in a community with a population of 4000 with no cities larger than 200,000 within a 50 mile radius. Regulations restricting burning of fireplaces and wood stoves enacted in larger metropolitan areas are filtering down into smaller markets. That is a fact. Market demographics with an aging population would lead one to conclude that there will be a trend in consumers looking for greater convenience and less heavy labor in fuel sources associated with cordwood. My parents now retired are increasingly interested in replacing their cordwood appliance with a pellet appliance for this reason. Convenience and reliability of appliances with two-wage earning families away from home unable to tend cordwood appliances during the day is another market trend favoring multifuel pellet appliances that can typically be fueled once a day. This is a leading factor in families purchase of pellet appliances who would not have purchased wood stoves otherwise. Cutting your own cordwood becomes increasingly difficult unless you own or a family memember owns their own timber and cordwood sellers are often sold out in my area of the country by January with additional supply hit and miss through the remainder of the winter.

Ultimately cost savings with reliable performance is the real driver behind the growth and sustainability of a market for pellet appliances. The market is not likely to be driven from savings when compared to Natural Gas. The real market potential is with millions of homes currently relying on Electric-Resistance, Propane, and Heating Oil with more limited alternatives that offer better value than pellet or cordwood appliances. Natural Gas will likely stay pretty competitive but prone to sharp price spikes and more vulnerable to natural or manmade disasters because of its dependence on a vast network of pipelines to reach consumers. The entire upper Midwest is vulnerable to disruption of natural gas flow should a major earthquake occur along the New Madrid Fault. With over 70-80% of residential consumers relying on natural gas throughout most states in the upper Midwest this is an extreme disaster waiting to happen especially if the event comes during the dead of winter. These same consumers are vulnerable along with heating oil customers to disruptions of oil and natural gas production and distribution along the Gulf Coast from hurricanes' greater affect on energy prices in tight global energy markets. When one considers that energy demand from China and India alone is likely to grow dramatically over the next decade, traditional energy supplies like oil and natural gas are likely to remain tight and prices higher and more volatile than past decades. The southern half of China alone traditionally has been restricted from having residential heating for winter. Economic growth and expectations for improved living conditions in China is increasing demand for residential heat in these regions experiencing some of the greatest economic growth and is likely to add tremendous new demand for energy in already tight global energy markets.

Market trends favor growth but do not guarantee growth. Value in appliance price, quality, and performance along with a reliable abundant supply of consistent fuel at a competitve value is critical to the growth in the market. There is much work to do to sieze the opportunity. But the world is changing and too many Americans as always are more reactionary than visionary when considering alternatives to growing energy challenges. The challenges are real and traditional energy costs are not likely to reverse current trends for at least a decade and only then with government policy more favorable to aggressive unapologetic energy development.

Just one humble perspective of relevant market trends from fly over country. Google reflects the reactionary trend without consideration or anticipation of the greater trends driving interest in the technology. Once the trend is reflected as sustainable on Google, the market has most likely already set sail.

 

[begreen]

The ultimate difference between pellet heating in Scandinavia, other parts of Europe and North America is convenience. Until American production shifts out of the massively wasteful, single bag, vinyl packaging and into bulk delivery, I think pellet stoves are going to remain a niche market here. Bulk delivery, storage and feeding makes pellet heating much more cost effective, competitive and convenient.

A pellet stove is like having a small furnace in the room. The flame is not that attractive and there is unwanted noise. However, placed in the basement or utility room as a boiler or furnace, it makes much more sense. We loved our pellet stove, but they're not for everybody.

 

[biggins08]

I would also have to say that wood stoves are not for everybody as well. I tell everyone how much I love my stove and then I tell them about the amount of work that goes into heating with wood and the conversaton ends there. We are a very lazy people!

 

[GVA]

The ultimate difference between pellet heating in Scandinavia, other parts of Europe and North America is convenience. Until American production shifts out of the massively wasteful, single bag, vinyl packaging and into bulk delivery, I think pellet stoves are going to remain a niche market here. Bulk delivery, storage and feeding makes pellet heating much more cost effective, competitive and convenient.

A pellet stove is like having a small furnace in the room. The flame is not that attractive and there is unwanted noise. However, placed in the basement or utility room as a boiler or furnace, it makes much more sense. We loved our pellet stove, but they're not for everybody.

Well there are some pellet stoves out there that don't look like a blast furnace when running
I would love to have bulk delivery here, but the Mrs doesn't want the silo next to the house.
I wouldn't call the single bags wasteful I would call that convenience, which makes it more appealing to people.. also they are in LDPE bags which recycle....

 

[webbie]

There are big markets even in small niches. But here is the wild card. Taking advantage of such niche markets requires MARKETING....usually talented marketing. For some reason, most of the hearth industry companies spend all their marketing dollars on trying to appeal to dealers as opposed to customers. They rely on word of mouth, the press (as we can see in the google trends) and plain old luck (world events) to get the product moving. That is why when those factors change, sales go into the pits.

The hearth industry in general does very little advertising....which, in my opinion does not help matters.

Exactly what happens with the Pellet and corn trend is still up in the air in my opinion. There are too many variables and...well, problems! The guy who cleaned my carpets last week told me a story of how he bought a name brand Pellet stove about 3 years ago, and how he replaced the auger three times, and then it was out of warranty, and then insult was added to injury when he had to pay $300 for a ton this year. Then he said the fire and noise was not romantic anyway, so he pulled it out and installed a wood stove. This was a completely random story that I did not coax out of him. But you can bet he won't be telling his friends to buy pellets stoves (and he had a big mouth!).

Of course, that is one story - but the point is that I bet the industry has never done a real study on the consumer satisfaction (long term) or disposition of stoves and such things. For instance, how many pellet stove owners....after 2 or 3 years...would put another pellet stove somewhere else in their home - a new addition, for instance? Not asking for an answer, but this is what the industry needs to know in order to see how this whole thing will turn out. Will a large % of Pellet and Corn stove users buy another one when the existing one wears out (or needs excessive repair) in 10 years?
Again, these are not questions to answer or debate here, but part of the marketing that the industry should be doing. I fear they are not asking these questions.

In this sense, BeGreen may be correct that a lot of the dead serious future of biofuels will be with central heating, fed from a bin or silo....totally automatic, clean heat. There are already a number of pellet boilers and furnaces and I know these are big in Europe.

The industry, as it is now, worries about either selling too many (can't make 'em) stoves or else too few (bummer) stoves - but I don't think they are doing all they could to assure their successful future.

 

[restorer]

The ultimate difference between pellet heating in Scandinavia, other parts of Europe and North America is convenience. Until American production shifts out of the massively wasteful, single bag, vinyl packaging and into bulk delivery, I think pellet stoves are going to remain a niche market here. Bulk delivery, storage and feeding makes pellet heating much more cost effective, competitive and convenient.

A pellet stove is like having a small furnace in the room. The flame is not that attractive and there is unwanted noise. However, placed in the basement or utility room as a boiler or furnace, it makes much more sense. We loved our pellet stove, but they're not for everybody.

Well there are some pellet stoves out there that don't look like a blast furnace when running
I would love to have bulk delivery here, but the Mrs doesn't want the silo next to the house.
I wouldn't call the single bags wasteful I would call that convenience, which makes it more appealing to people.. also they are in LDPE bags which recycle....

I think the issues raised have merit, but we are uniquely different from Europe. Our supply sources and delivery methods are completely different from Europe. I will not disclose my age, but many will guess. I do remember the coal truck delivery, and the oil tank truck delivery. They still do, but here most heat with natural gas, and there the black pipe is gone and the flexible plastics have replaced them. Our homes are not designed for bulk delivery, we have many on this forum that can't figure out how to store the bagged stuff, let alone how to deal with a couple of tons dropped off in bulk. Some have the experience of living on farms and ranches, but many more think firewood comes from the front of the 7-11 and grows in neat plastic shrink wrap.

Pellets are packaged in bags similar to the other bulk products we buy. Dog food, Cat Litter, cracked corn for the birds, grass seed, fertilizer, etc. We have a bagged mind-set and it works, as well as the equipment to bag and seal are readily available and reasonably prices. Equipment for bulk delivery and storage is expensive. I think most of us who burn pellets use less than 4 ton, many less than 2 ton. That means for a seasons worth of burning you need a space less than 256 cu.ft. That's roughly the space a volkswagon bug takes up in the garage. Speaking as one who years ago unloaded fertilizer from rail freight cars to go to college, those 40lbs. bags are about right.

Speaking about the fire, I can tweak my stove if I want a lazy fire with casual flames, or I can make it almost white hot flames. The efficiency of heating my house is most important. If I want a nice looking fire, I'll down load a nice vid, and burn it to a CD. I have three stoves, One is almost silent, one is about as noisy as a desk top fan, and the third can get irritating, but all are not irritating enough to shut them of if I'm in the room, or requiring turning the sound up on the TV or Stereo.