I have a service contract and auto-delivery for oil. Last year I pulled the trigger a little early and locked in while some here called it pretty accurately. So whaddya think, when or at what price would you lock in your HHO?
Projected Fuel Oil Prices
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Oil is in a tight range now, 45-51. It will bounce around like this to the new year and then it's a new ball game. I would say there is a higher possibility of oil prices going up than down.
Here's a good article on Bloomberg on oil prices.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-low-40s-if-opec-deal-fails-as-odds-diminish
OPEC is having trouble controlling output so prices may slide down to $40.
However, you also have to take into account the weather in the Northeast which uses huge amounts of heating oil. If we get warm months early on, that will drive down demand and prices like last year. I haven't seen long range weather models for this winter, so I don't know, but it is definitely something to consider.
CNBC has a good article on home heating in 2016. The big takeaway is that last year oil prices crashed and we will not be seeing that again. But they are still low.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/13/youll-be-paying-more-to-heat-your-home-this-winter.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-low-40s-if-opec-deal-fails-as-odds-diminish
OPEC is having trouble controlling output so prices may slide down to $40.
However, you also have to take into account the weather in the Northeast which uses huge amounts of heating oil. If we get warm months early on, that will drive down demand and prices like last year. I haven't seen long range weather models for this winter, so I don't know, but it is definitely something to consider.
CNBC has a good article on home heating in 2016. The big takeaway is that last year oil prices crashed and we will not be seeing that again. But they are still low.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/13/youll-be-paying-more-to-heat-your-home-this-winter.html
True, the price per barrel doesn't always mirror the price at the pump. I don't follow or really understand the commodities markets but I'll read those articles and make a decision if I should lock-in. Thanks for the links.
If you don't mind me asking, what prices are they quoting you right now and how many gallons do you use in an average winter?
I am thinking of adding an oil boiler (I have electric baseboards and pellet stove now, no gas line available in my area). Right now the pellet stove works great, but I figure I would like to have a low maintenance heating option too. When I first got the house in 2010, in the coldest months of winter, the electric baseboard heaters cost like $700 a month for a cold 68 degrees. The pellet stove and added insulation has saved me tons of money since, but with oil prices so cheap now, an oil boiler makes sense for me.
I use 700-800g on avg. I have not called around to my oil company yet so not sure. When I first moved in the owner was using at least 1500g and most likely much much more. First thing I changed out were the non-programmable Honeywell yo-yo t-stats. Have done windows etc and added the stove since.
For reference the boiler is original to the house with separate (new-ish) oil fired hot water heater and the house is around 2800 sq/ft w/ two zones built late 60's w/ decent but not great attic insulation.
No gas here either. Hard to know sometimes what to do. Oil is cheap now but wasn't too long ago is was $4. Hard to beat the convenience of a central heating system though especially considering both me and my wife work so it's worth the expense. In my last house I installed a System 2000 which was a cold start boiler w/ water bank. Unlike my current boiler, during summer it was stone cold for the most part and drastically cut our consumption. I don't know about the long term durability though. Both houses had/have baseboard heat which is very comfortable and even when on. Thinking hydronic or forced air?
cableman
Minister of Fire
Wow i filled twice, sep 2015 for 133gal and april 2016 for 155 gal. I still have 3/4 left from april fill! Just around 550 bucks for over a year and will def make it to new year.
Last year was mild and I used about 650g but those 100 million or so BTU's gotta come from somewhere. I get about 25% of them from wood.
I have a 1250 sq ranch. Like I said, electric baseboard heat was costing a fortune with LI electric prices. The pellet stove has helped a lot, and is already paid for in savings. I think a paid $4000 altogether with pipes and install, including the work I had to do to it (OAK and different exhaust pipe system that would not leak), plus another $600 in parts here and there. So 6 years since pellet stove installed is $4600/6 = $766, plus 3 tons of pellets a year at an average price of $280, is $840. So around $1600 a year to heat the house. Though I don't include the electric to run the stove.
I was thinking of doing hydronic since I keep reading online that forced air is not as comfortable. And if I DIY parts of the project, like running the copper pipes and installing the baseboard heaters, and buying the boiler myself for around $2000, I dream of getting everything installed for $4000-$5000. But I am only in the planning stages now. I have to do some demo in the basement first and then figure out the best place for the boiler.
Thanks for the info.
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lml999
Minister of Fire
Cute
Me either!
Just wish the PO of our new (to us) house had put radiant floors in the master bath when they updated it a couple of years ago... Oh well!
Oil for me last and this year was just over 2usd a gallon deliverd.
what got me last year is (road tax)pump diesel was less then I paid for heating oil...
what got me last year is (road tax)pump diesel was less then I paid for heating oil...
Having grown up with a house with an oil furnace . . . and then post-college in a camp with an oil furnace . . . I would most definitely go with hot water baseboard heating or embedded in the floor/ceiling. The heat is much more even vs. hot air -- whenever I am at a home with an oil furnace instead of an oil boiler it seems as if I am roasting one minute and then freezing the next as the heat cycles on and off.
Most boilers and furnaces are over sized that is where a lot of the uncomfortableness ( yea I know not a word ) comes from with forced air. You might consider cast iron radiators before baseboard. If I had to do it over Id be heating my floors and have ducts for A/C. We went from baseboard heat to forced air heat with our geothermal system. No change in comfort but the geothermal system is staged so your not dumping 75k btu in the house when its 40F outside trying to maintain a temperature.
It has been warm the last couple of days in Long Island NY, but the temperature is supposed to drop by Friday. Too early to tell, but this winter sure seems to be setting up like last year's. I am still waiting for a good frost to stop the plants from making ragweed pollen.
https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/winterfuels.cfm
https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/winterfuels.cfm
I read that report Vinny, thanks. From what I gather generally sounds like HHO prices will be marginally higher than last year. Still haven't found anything with specific including current ppg and future projections. Calling @BrotherBart !
These two interruptions on the Colonial pipeline are gonna have an impact on supply for sure even though early inventory was good. That will be in the process of drawing down right now both because folks need to be filling starting the season and because some will order a load in reaction to the news.
Ashful
Minister of Fire
@vinny11950, you should definitely have some form of automatic central heating. What will your wife do, if something happens to you? Morbid thought, but having seen several men go at a younger age, something we can't ignore.
I keep two stoves going all winter, but also have my oil fired boiler and heat pumps going at the same time. 10 cords wood + 1000 gallons oil + $275/mo electric gets it done.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I keep two stoves going all winter, but also have my oil fired boiler and heat pumps going at the same time. 10 cords wood + 1000 gallons oil + $275/mo electric gets it done.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The gasoline pipeline ?
Personally I think locking into a contract price is a 50/50 gamble.
I've done the autodelivery from a shyster in town, paid thru the nose for the convenience and now just keep an eye on my tank and buy a hundred gallons from the local John Doe delivery guy when it is getting low or if I think prices are close to as low as they are going to be for a while - fill the tank. Pay cash for the cash price discount.
Friday's glut announcement sure has pulled the floor out on prices. Right back down to $1.73/gal here. Was $1.85 a month ago.
Colonial ships gasoline and distillate, heating oil and diesel, all through that pipe in batches.
No surprise that there is a glut at Cushing. With the Enterprise pipeline from there to the Gulf refineries still down and a finished product pipeline from those same refineries down refinery run rates have fallen big time. Nowhere for the crude to go but to pile up in the tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma.
So I pulled the trigger. The question for me was whether or not prices had bottomed out for the season and from what I could gather prices are expected to rise from now through the winter. We will see.
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