Redox explained it all better than I could....
After using a run of the mill, current vintage air-source HP, I am convinced that the payback of a GSHP relative to an air-source is going to start taking longer and longer in most applications and climates in the lower 48. Unless elec gets a lot more $$ than it is currently, I think air source HPs are going to slowly chase the geos to the canadian border (for new installations).
When I was figuring out what to do about my potentially $4k/yr oil bill last summer in my 'no gas option' house I was thinking geo, and worried about financing the install, or getting some 'bleeding edge' tech, cold-climate heat pump that I was worried was untested (low volume) vapor-ware that shows up on 'green' websites. After looking around, I found that the bottom of the line, standard air-source HP used all over (Goodman) looked on paper like it could handle my application. A lot of folks on the 'net dis the Goodman's, but as I read more, the picture Redox painted became clear--the core hardware units are much the same under the hood, Goodman has got its build quality up (as its sales volume became very large), and it all comes down to proper installation--I watched that poor HVAC guy like a hawk.
Since I wanted CAC and needed to install ducting anyway, it was a low activation ($$) barrier to get the HP. My neighbors with the same house had CAC with small high velocity ducting put in for ~$2k less than my install. The small ducting is not forward compatible with a HP if they just want to replace their compressor in the future....and the company that installed their CAC is also their oil distributor. Hmmmm.
Let's talk frost--I couldn't get good info online, so I've had to experiment. The Goodmans have 'primitive' defrost that just does a defrost cycle every 30, 60 or 120 minutes of run time, whenever the outdoor coil temp is below 40F. Sounds like a big waste, right? The more I think about it the less I worry. Although it sounds like a timer is non-adaptive, the system actually IS adaptive, as the defrost cycle runs until the coil temp gets above ~40F. IF there is no frost, that takes like 2-3 minutes, given the low thermal mass of the coil itself, and then its done, maybe ~2,000 BTUs, and just a couple cents of elec on my aux every 60 minute cycle. While the defrost takes longer when needed (maybe 7-8 minutes during snow or sleet), those conditions are a small fraction of total time. I find typical defrosts at 25F for dry conditions are still only ~4 minutes/hr. Think of it this way--if the outdoor coil is big enough (and the BTU has dropped off) then the coil can bottom out above the dew point during dry weather and have minimal frosting. In the end, I think I average ~15-20kWh/day for defrost. Definitely a significant cost of the air-source, but not worth losing sleep over.
In the end, I rationalized getting the cheapest air-source HP I could (given that it specs to cover >80% of my heating demand). As with computers, I think the technology, efficiency and value of these HPs are rapidly maturing so it doesn't make sense to get a top of the line ($$) compressor. It makes more sense to get one that will do the job now, and just replace it when the tech gets better in a few years (or 10), rather than trying to get a tank and keep it going for 25 years.
Sorry about the dew-point confusion. I was simply trying to say that I have completely validated the data in that table in my own 'field' trials. The only deviations have been during high RH, when the output and elec usage both increase, b/c the coil is running a little below the dew point, rather than 20F below ambient air temp. For dewpoints above freezing, the system runs less often at higher BTU/hr and similar COP. For dewpoints below freezing, the defrosting goes up, but I think the total system BTU/hr is still comparable to dry conditions b/c of higher output between defrost cycles (assuming it doesn't get choked off).
cheers,
geek (science-type, not woodworker or eater of weird objects)