Tesla House Battery / Utility Scale Battery

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jebatty

Minister of Fire
Hearth Supporter
Jan 1, 2008
5,796
Northern MN
The net is abuz about a battery announcement coming from Tesla on April 30. One post quoted a possible price for a 10kw house battery at $1.30/watt. Haven't seen a smart control system that would grid-tie this well to charge as the PV system had excess current available and discharge to the house when the PV system had insufficient energy, but it would seem this needs to be a part of the deal.
 
I seriously doubt that Tesla will be selling these units to anyone. They will include it as an option to sell more Solar City leases. Selling a battery is one time profit. By using it as a cachet to lease more PV systems, there is ongoing revenue stream from the lease. There is also most likely some fine print that allows tesla to manage the battery pack. By communicating to the battery pack to sell power during high demand periods they most likely can get additional long term intermittent revenue stream and most likely will be able to sell the capacity for short terms sales as another revenue stream. Folks don't realize that the Tesla cars are sold at a loss and the cost is made up by Tesla selling the zero emissions attributes to other car companies that aren't selling enough of their own.
 
Warren Buffet is helping to underwrite China's BYD foray into a 'Gigafactory' to rival and maybe even outclass the Tesla/Panasonic collaboration.
There's going to be a glut of lithium-ion cells which ( the plan is) to lower costs and increase sales. The current solar/power industry will have to embrace this storage medium somehow. Either storing it themselves and maintaining SREC and net-metering or home-owners will embrace just one more investment themselves for the net savings.
It will be an interesting shake-out. However the shake-out proceeds, the poor will be the very last to benefit, if at all.
 
Lower prices are not going to happen soon. Announcements are happening all the time but Tesla's factory is only partially built and it will be another 2 yrs before production is at levels to bring prices down to levels some of us might be able to stomach.

IMHO, power storage will be like PV & computers, what you are buying is older technology that they are getting rid of to bring in the better stuff.
 
However the shake-out proceeds, the poor will be the very last to benefit, if at all.
This is open to discussion. Do the "poor" benefit from my solar? I would say yes:

1) My excess kwh are daytime, times of load management of peak loads by the utility and service interruptions. I am adding capacity which will reduce the utility need for load management, which will result in less service interruptions and less need for the utility to buy expensive peak power, which should reduce rates for everyone.

2) My PV is adding efficiency to the grid. I doubt that my excess kwh even make it a mile down the road before they are used by other consumers. Line loss of such short distances is minimal, compared to 10-20% on grid supplied power. Increasing efficiency also translates to more kwh at reduced cost to the benefit of everyone.

3) My PV is a capital investment in long term power, paid by me privately, thus relieving the utility of need to add generating capacity at huge cost with cost recover through rate increases. Once again, reducing utility costs and more kwh to everyone without additional capital cost and rate increases.

4) This is nearly a ditto of (3). Distributed power means less need for long distance transmission lines, and avoidance of another large capital cost recovery by the utility through rate structure and rate increases. If distributed power is wisely planned, there also should be little need to add short distance transmission capacity which in any event is much less disruptive than long distance transmission lines.

5) Hard to conclude that those installing PV are really benefiting directly. Rather, they are benefiting generally as are other rate payers and the public. They may be receiving a reduction in current charges at the cost of a substantial capital investment and cost recovery which, in my case, is nearly 20 years into the future. And I am bearing the future risk rather than the utility and its rate paying customers. Many including me would conclude that residential PV is really more costly than grid electricity, unless the other non-reimbursed indirect costs of grid electricity are paid to the PV investor. But may main reason for investing in PV was because "it is the right thing to do, something which my utility is not doing."

6) I will package the social and environmental benefits in one bundle. Estimates are that these costs likely are in the range of at least equal to or more than the current charges for electricity. Everyone benefits with clean, safe, power and a healthier environment, reduced illnesses, etc.

PV, like most other innovations, is driven by the wealthy, the early adopters, those that set the future trends. Same with automobile, electronics, and the list goes on forever. In the long term costs drop to the great benefit of everyone; meanwhile some have also benefited hugely. PV is not unusual or an exception in this regard. It is capitalism and free enterprise at work. Let PV compete on a level playing field rather than continuing to give government sponsored and enforced monoply control to large utilities.

Lastly, most utilities are investor owned. Do you doubt for a moment that these investors are profiting at the expense of the poor from the current system?
 
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I still think when the dust on storage settles, the utilities will be owning nearly all the batteries.

The utilities are getting scared re grid management and falling profits, and affordable grid storage with be a hallelujah.
 
I agree that utilities or utility scale batteries will be a major player. I also would not be surprised if there is more movement to off-grid with more affordable battery packs, more competition, even potentially less regulation.
 
agreed. But if I can buy RE off the grid for less than I can get it from my own off-grid system, I, like many will stay on grid.
 
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Might a fit for the battery for those with PV, even with grid RE, be to supply electricity to the home/farm when solar is not producing or under producing and where full credit for excess kwh supplied to the grid is not compensated to the PV producer? For example, our general service electric on average is about 400 kwh/month, or about 13 kwh/day. Our PV roughly on average supplies 20% of that usage with 80% from the grid. Our heavy usage is during non-sun times. On average a 10 kwh battery, with direct use PV, would meet 100% of our general service home electric usage -- meaning now solar would be providing 100% of daily usage.

As to the remaining excess solar to grid, it would not take much load control to shift DHW heating from current timed service from the utility (between 11pm and 7am) to daytime periods when excess solar is being produced. On average that would be an additional 3 kwh/day. Similarly, during periods when we use electric supplemental heat in our lower level (Nov - Apr generally), rather than baseboard, we could use a ceramic electric storage unit to charge on excess solar and then provide the heat when needed. Electric heat from Nov - Apr averages 20-30 kwh/day. That still leaves May-Sept when there would be excess solar produced which I likely will not be able to capture, but on the other hand this is AC season and the utility may want the excess solar to meet demand for AC.

The point I am making is that PV with some home battery storage could substantially even out PV surges to the grid and provide a return to the PV homeowner that might not otherwise be available due to net metering restrictions, charges or unavailability, depending on the utility. Utility scale storage could offer the same benefits to the utility to even out PV supply, but there may be an advantage, cost or otherwise, to smaller scale storage as well.
 
Further as to home battery storage, might this be a market for the utility to lease the batteries to homeowners?
 
I see on Amazon 4 - 4ah 18650 li-ion batteries at $13.69, or $3.40 each. 2500 of these batteries would be 10 kwh of storage at a price of $8,500. A 10 kwh battery pack with charge/discharge control, and probably a higher quality battery, likely would cost more, but ballpark pricing could be in this range.
 
Lithium chemistry is the wrong choice for a home battery system. Lithium's big benefit is watts/pound and fast charge and discharge capacity. It also uses a lot of high value materials. A household battery does not need to be particularly lightweight so other battery chemistry's are more appropriate. The deal for a home battery is $/watt. Tesla has made a huge bet on Lithium technology and the only way they can win it is to mass produce the batterys to drive the cost down. If they can have multiple channels to sell (or lease) them, its a way of ensuring that they hit the volume they need.

There are couple of other reasons to sell lithium house batteries. When lithium batteries are made there are inevitably going to be some low grade cells. Many of the cells for sale on Ebay and Amazon are "seconds", generally there is nothing wrong with them except that their charge density (watts per pound) is low so they are not great for a car. Tesla can sort the batteries at the plant and divert the seconds to the home battery line. Lithium batteries also wear out due the hard demands placed on them in automotive application. At some point the battery pack loses charge density. Its still a good battery pack but not good for an auto. Rather than scrap the batteries, they can get several more years of life by reconfiguring them as house batteries. This delays the inevitable costs to recycle the batteries as I expect that the government is to force recycling of dead batteries rather than generating a new toxic waste stream.

Some of the battery technologies currently better suited for house use are the Aquion batteries, GE Durathon batteries, good old lead acid, and possibly some new variation of Edison's favorite nickel/iron. They all have their pluses and minuses but they are lower cost per watt. This battery battle has been going on for years in the off grid community and to date lead acid seems to be the winner. Sure folks try other battery chemistry's but when they have to write the check to replace a battery bank they usually write it for lead acid.
 
Not promoting li-ion, but the idea of house batteries seems to be very feasible, practical, and in the end competitive.
 
Let's crunch some numbers....

Let's say you can get your home battery for $200/kWh, just a quarter of what you are supposing. If I can only get 1000 cycles out of them (full capacity cycles, or equivalently 2000 50% DOD cycles, 5000 20% cycles, etc), then my cost of energy from the batteries is $200/1000 = 20 cents/kWh. If the battery engineers can get the cycle costs to 2000 cycles, its still a 10 cent per kWh up charge for storage, which is pretty steep.

For Li-ion, I think the (closely guarded) numbers for EV batteries are closer to $250-300/kWh in 2015, and the cycle numbers are in the 1000-1500 range.

E.g. my LEAF can do 85 miles on a charge, and the battery will be pretty beat by the time the car gets to 85,000 miles (1000 cycles). If a replacement/trade-in battery is $5500 for 24 kWh, that is 5500/24*1000 = $0.23/kWh for the privilege of having the juice in a moving vehicle!

Some off-grid folks could estimate better, but it seems cheap Lead-acid batteries are ~$100/kWh (to 80% DOD). I think nice AGW batts are $200-300/kWh, and can do ~1000 cycles (2000 = 7 years at 50% DOD), corresponding to a $0.25-$0.30/kWh battery premium for off-grid applications.

The real action as peakbagger noted is in batteries with other chemistries, like the Aquion battery. http://www.aquionenergy.com/
These need to get the cost down below 5-10 cents per kWh delivered, and both Li-ion and Lead acid are still 4-5x that today.

It'll happen and be huge, but not at scale on April 30th.
 
The net is abuz about a battery announcement coming from Tesla on April 30. One post quoted a possible price for a 10kw house battery at $1.30/watt. Haven't seen a smart control system that would grid-tie this well to charge as the PV system had excess current available and discharge to the house when the PV system had insufficient energy, but it would seem this needs to be a part of the deal.
That seems expensive. 10Kw is fairly small for average house usage without a lot of energy management say for a week long cloudy spell. Used lithium car batteries still have a lot of life left, especially for this application. A new 16Kw Volt battery is about $4500 I think. Used are less than half that.
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...old-chevy-volt-battery-into-a-whole-house-ups
 
http://www.businessinsider.com/here-comes-teslas-missing-piece-battery-announcement-2015-4

Lots of details still missing. In particular I want to know how it is proposed to backup grid-tied solar.

http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

Sounds like it would act like a battery back-up, when the power goes out it would power the home. Details will be coming. But the few times some people lose power it would be better used to size a solar system smaller and charge the battery during the day and use it at night to power the home...if you didn't get enough sun and the battery got low you could draw from the grid. This is a game changer if people could use their imagination and aren't limited by Krouch Brothers $$'s and regulations.
Personally I will be thinking of going completely off grid in 5 years or so if the price drops a little more and or how my system actually produces just because I could. Although, the current draw specs make me wonder if you could power a welder with this while off grid completely.

I love the times we live in now, so many advancement's in technology!
 
It will be sold to installers for $3,500 for 10kWh, and $3,000 for 7kWh. Deliveries will begin in late Summer.
The controller technology could be as simple as a timer, if the battery is used for night charging at low utility rates and then supplying electricity to the home for the morning coffee and evening dinner, and maybe some AC during the day. Or with a sensor monitoring PV output and house demand, when PV exceeds demand, charge the battery. In my case, typical daily kwh usage is 10-15 kwh total (not including electric heat). A photocell sunlight sensor could switch charging on and off during the day from PV, and except for densely cloudy days, my system produces enough kwh to meet daytime demand and/or charge the battery and the battery would meet demand from sunset to sunrise.

Not to get bogged down on the details of the controller possibilities, the real big thing is an inexpensive battery that combined either with charging from low rate utility supply or PV, or both, real economies may be on the doorstep, including fully off grid for many more PV users.
 
At current rates.. I don't believe there's a battery system out there that can be maintained for 10 dollars a month. That's what my utility is charging me to be my 'battery' This battery lasts 12 months on a charge (I must use excess credits within a rolling 12 month calendar)

Now, eventually they might try to discriminate against solar powered homes and make different 'minimum connect fees' but for now.. I won't be interested in battery tech.

JP
 
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I wonder how useful it would be as a stand alone for people on a smart meter. You could draw all your energy from the grid at the low evening rates and then use that power during the day.

That alone could save a bundle. 10 year warranty... maybe good for 15?
 
I have been paying a monthly fee to be hooked to the grid for about 4 years and run a net credit on my power usage. There is no off peak sell back program with my utility. My utility has no current interest in energy storage. The utility charges another monthly fee for off peak power and since I don't buy power, I don't see why I would voluntarily pay my utility even more. My backup generator has never been used since if was purchased in the year 2000. So what rational justification would I have to buy a battery bank? There is the geek factor, the keeping up with the Jones factor but I drive cheap econo boxes into the ground and have never owned anything made by Apple, so neither one really applies. On the other hand there are plenty of lemmings that could care less about reality and get on the wait list. I will be curious how much the homeowners coverage goes up in a few years.

I expect a lot of folks will be upset when they find out that the pricing is based on subsidies that may not exist with their utility.
 
How useful is a 10kw battery? How do I calculate how long that will run, a 60 watt light bulb? Is it as simple as a kilowatt is 1000 watts so you are looking at 10,000 watts? 10000/60=166 hours? Obviously if the battery has limitations such as don't discharge below xx% that would shorten the amount of hours.
 
Local utility rates will vary, individual motivations will vary, available incentives will vary, and state laws will vary. If an analysis is made on kwh usage and having a battery that can charge when PV is available or when the grid has excess capacity, then a much different picture of energy supply and cost starts to form, as well as a much different picture of environmental impact of energy usage. Imagine most houses having a 10kw battery and businesses larger kwh batteries, grid tied to draw from and possibly even supply to the grid - micro distributed power which would even out grid supply/demand, possibly eliminate or greatly reduce the need for peak generating capacity, and add a level of emergency energy security. Imagine greatly reduced carbon emissions, cleaner and healthier air, water and soil - an environment that sustains rather than depletes life.

I give great credit to people like Elon Musk and Tesla. People like him in various areas imagine a better world while most of us barely can get past a cup of morning coffee and the last installment of Survivor. We need more of and need to celebrate the great thinkers, great entrepreneurs, and great risk takers. Without those that came before we still would be wearing loin cloths and using a rock for a hammer.

As to the reality of the geek factor related to PV and battery storage, so what? My neighbor drives a big honker pickup truck ($40,000), one person in the vehicle, rarely hauls anything in the bed -- just because he can. Another neighbor has a 6000 sq ft home -- just because he can. Another neighbor is a bejeweled fashionista -- just because he can. Not one of these has any payback, let alone an economic payback. So what? Our lives are full of geek factors, culturally induced behaviors, and shaped by big bucks media advertising. PV has real value beyond the geek factor.
 
First off, whomever found an 18650 LiIon cell with a 4Ah capacity - give me a link!!! Most of the ones Ive seen (we use them in hobby applications) are 2.6Ah... sometimes 3.

But that doesn't matter, since 18650 are very small format cells - they are laptop battery cells. For a large off grid battery it would be better to use larger format individual cells so you dont have to string as many of them together. Trying to make a many kilowatt pack out of little cells you end up having a large % of the mass, volume and cost of it go to the metal in the cell cans , packaging and interconnect wiring... a waste.


Furthermore, as folks have mentioned, Lithium Ion in general is a waste for fixed applications. Its big benefit is energy density by mass meaning its great for vehicles, but there are so many cheaper options for a battery that wont move. Like mentioned above lead acid. Which also is currently more recyclable and made with materials that are far more abundant in nature than any lithium technology. Off grid folks use lead batteries for that reason. And they dont put 10,000 little flashlight batteries together, they use a few big ones like so :)

[Hearth.com] Tesla House Battery / Utility Scale Battery

(these cells are made up to 2000+Ah per)

As far as cycle lives go, I'd be really impressed with a LiIon that actually manages 1000+ cycles. When used hard, LiIon is more like a couple hundred until noticeable capacity loss is evident - Im sure we have all experienced laptops and cell phones that wont hold a charge in as little as 1-2 years. A123 Lithium Iron Phosphate's are probably the leader in this regard, doing an honest 1000+ at very hard discharge rates, but they are very expensive, even compared to already expensive LiIon. Again, Lead Acid is still the value leader here, good cells can manage close to 1000 cycles but it comes at the cost of low discharges -even for good flooded deep cycle off grid batteries like the Rolls Surette pictured above reaching those numbers means limiting to 40% discharge depth. If you go for 80% the life cuts in half.


As regards nickel iron... yes Ive heard some discussion to bring them back but I dont see it ever getting big. They have one large benefit - a lifespan measure in decades unaffected by discharge depth... Telco's like them for phone backups for that reason. OTOH, they have lower recharge efficiency than most other types, even lower energy density than lead acid, and they tend to self discharge like all nickel chemistries.
 
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