What happens after El Nino winter?

[warno]

This winter has been a joke for us the midwest states. I'm just curious what happens in the years following El Nino? Should next winter be more wintery?

 

[EatenByLimestone]

El Papa comes back and freezes your arse off.

 

[firefighterjake]

My memory is pretty bad, but I think I recall a winter similar to this one a few years back when it was very mild temp wise and snow wise . . . back in 2009 or so I think . . . I remember I had to trailer the sleds all winter long. The next year was similar . . . but not quite so "bad" as it was colder and we had more snow as I was able to do some local riding -- but not as much as normal.

 

[begreen]

The off cycle is often call LaNina. Things have tended to be cyclical in the past, but that's no guarantee for the future as we continue to break global record temps.

 

[warno]

So there's no definite next winter will have more snow and cold weather?

 

[begreen]

Definite, no.

 

[AmbDrvr253]

Weather forecasting is the only profession where you can be wrong 100% of the time and maintain employment. "Its the weather stupid"

 

[BrotherBart]

The weather forecasts are phenomenal these days compared to before. They told us a week ahead of time that we were going to have the three feet of snow blizzard we had this year. A few years ago they told us two weeks ahead of time and nobody listened and it happened right on schedule.

Forecasting a year ahead is Old Farmer's Almanac brand of BS.

 

[begreen]

The US finally is about to catch up with the European forecasting systems (that got Sandy right) with bringing online two new Cray supercomputers. Let's just hope that politics don't get in the way.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-national-weather-services-new.html

 

[billb3]

What happens after El Nino winter?

Spring.

 

[warno]

Yep, can't argue with that fact.

 

[johneh]

Spring

Or sometimes we just go straight to summer

 

[kennyp2339]

Forecasting a year ahead is Old Farmer's Almanac brand of BS.

Yup, but your cat was spot on this year.

 

[begreen]

All long range forecasts expected the PNW to be drier with el Nino dumping the rains south in CA. Well, it's March now and we have set record rainfalls for every month since October. Wettest winter I have ever experienced. So much for long range forecasting.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

Winter already long gone around here. 60s and 70s forcast. Cant believe winter is over already,one of the warmest winters i can remember.
Usually burn 5-6 tons of solid fuel a year ,this year between 2-3 ton so far and it look like little to no heat needed going forward this spring.

 

[sportbikerider78]

50's and 60's here this week. 2 years ago, I had snow on the ground in the woods in May

I love summer...bring it on

 

[firefighterjake]

We had a coating of snow today . . . it was actually kind of pretty coming down . . . it will not stick around though as warmer temps are in the forecast.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

All long range forecasts expected the PNW to be drier with el Nino dumping the rains south in CA. Well, it's March now and we have set record rainfalls for every month since October. Wettest winter I have ever experienced. So much for long range forecasting.

nino typically brings in high moisture, this year different as it has moved into the northwest as well as the south.. nina will dry out again. think winter was warm, this summer will push records everywhere as la nina is forecast( there's that word again) to grow rapidly.my go to J Bastardi saying 16 hurricane season gonna be a bad one. everything you need to know. la nina-el nino (broken link removed to http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/ensofaq.html)

 

[Doug MacIVER]

The US finally is about to catch up with the European forecasting systems (that got Sandy right) with bringing online two new Cray supercomputers. Let's just hope that politics don't get in the way.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/02/the-national-weather-services-new.html

here is the skill grades for the two forecast systems, via r. maue twitter

 

[Doug MacIVER]

last 135 years

 

[Doug MacIVER]

short term forescast for another problem?
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 25m25 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA


California above normal precip likely to continue into May.. Implications good, then bad, as it may mean big wildfire season, extra fuel

 

[Doug MacIVER]

stolen from twitter
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1h1 hour ago

Ryan Maue Retweeted Los Angeles Times

fastest reservoir recharge in history

predicted because of el nino

 

[begreen]

Seattle has broken rainfall records 5 months in a row now and likely will for March as well. Record warming is putting a lot of moisture into the atmosphere.
http://mashable.com/2016/03/14/record-warm-february-five-implications/#RyzjCiImHPqX

 

[kennyp2339]

short term forescast for another problem?
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 25m25 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA


California above normal precip likely to continue into May.. Implications good, then bad, as it may mean big wildfire season, extra fuel

You are absolutely correct, I do believe in climate change and I believe that whole area is turning into more of an arid climate because of it. Wild land fires are not something to laugh at, they create there own micro climates and alter weather patterns, very powerful stuff.

 

[sportbikerider78]

....as has been happening since the beginning of time.....