Whence Toyota?!?

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SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
7,086
Downeast Maine
First off, I never said I had a high strung engine. By burn the tires up, I mean replace them when needed, change the oil and that's it for my truck. Simply stating that I like my ICE just fine. What happens when everyone is driving and EV? Do you think all the trucks, planes, boats and construction equipment necessary will magically run on batteries? What about the politicians flying all over the place using jet fuel? Think they give a crap about your environment? I am with you that we need to be conscious of the environment and air quality, but nobody knows what the answer is exactly. My point is that i believe alot of this EV push will turn out to be a drop in the bucket when we look back at it many years from now. A balance with energy independence would be a good thing.
EVs are not a drop in the bucket, furthermore they will lead to more energy independence. Think about all the Saudi oil that is imported to fuel all the legacy ICEs in the US. Volvo is already testing plug in hybrid and battery electric heavy equipment, Case has a battery powered backhoe, and there are several other players in the low emissions heavy equipment sector. The times have already changed.

I apologize for misinterpreting your comments on "burn the tires up" and "suck the fuel". I used to do those things literally, I've had vehicles that did spit flames on throttle lift.
 

LogCabinFever

New Member
May 24, 2021
59
CT, USA
I think everyone is forgetting one thing: Toyota isn’t stupid. There’s a reason why they are one of the top dogs and have been for quite a while. Sure some of that in recent years has been run off of their reputation which came to light in the 80s and 90s, but they care more about their own skin than the environment. And honestly, most companies do. If they don’t see it as economically viable, they’re not gonna put all their eggs into EV. The majority of the public is not on board with EV, whether we like it or not. Toyota for sure knows this . It’ll be a long time before EVs are the big sellers over ICE. The Prius caught on because it wasn’t so much of a jump as ICE is to EV. There was very little downsides and people didn’t have to change their behaviors and so it was a natural adaptation. Hybrids still are natural adaptation. A survey was done recently, asking people what price gas would have to be per gallon for them to convert to and EV vehicle. I can’t remember the exact number but it was almost $10/gal. The survey asked why? The majority of people responded that it’s not about cost and the environment so much as it’s about the convenience. The public, particularly the American public cherishes convenience. EVs will catch when the infrastructure and range is more on par with that of ICE.

Are EVs the future? Perhaps. Car companies are going to do what sells, so long as they can sell it.

As I see it, it seems to me the government is pushing it before the infrastructure is there. I could be wrong though.

Again, Toyota will remain relevant for a while. Look at their sales globally. They’re going nowhere. Mazda might be a different situation. They’re smaller and so they might lack the funding for R&D. Who knows?
 

woodgeek

Minister of Fire
Jan 27, 2008
4,773
SE PA
I think everyone is forgetting one thing: Toyota isn’t stupid. There’s a reason why they are one of the top dogs and have been for quite a while. Sure some of that in recent years has been run off of their reputation which came to light in the 80s and 90s, but they care more about their own skin than the environment. And honestly, most companies do. If they don’t see it as economically viable, they’re not gonna put all their eggs into EV. The majority of the public is not on board with EV, whether we like it or not. Toyota for sure knows this . It’ll be a long time before EVs are the big sellers over ICE. The Prius caught on because it wasn’t so much of a jump as ICE is to EV. There was very little downsides and people didn’t have to change their behaviors and so it was a natural adaptation. Hybrids still are natural adaptation. A survey was done recently, asking people what price gas would have to be per gallon for them to convert to and EV vehicle. I can’t remember the exact number but it was almost $10/gal. The survey asked why? The majority of people responded that it’s not about cost and the environment so much as it’s about the convenience. The public, particularly the American public cherishes convenience. EVs will catch when the infrastructure and range is more on par with that of ICE.

Are EVs the future? Perhaps. Car companies are going to do what sells, so long as they can sell it.

As I see it, it seems to me the government is pushing it before the infrastructure is there. I could be wrong though.

Again, Toyota will remain relevant for a while. Look at their sales globally. They’re going nowhere. Mazda might be a different situation. They’re smaller and so they might lack the funding for R&D. Who knows?

I understand the argument. But I can turn it around.... all the other car makers aren't stupid either. And right now, the Japanese makers are outliers. All the other makers (outside Japan) ALSO know how to do global sales projections, and are making the huge investments to switch over in the next few years.

Also, hybrids never actually caught on... they got to 7-8% of sales in the US about 10 years ago, and have been declining ever since. This is due to the higher upfront cost, poor driving experience or both. Most of the folks who liked hybrids now have EVs or are planning to get one soon.

And to be clear, here EVs includes anything with a plug, both battery EVs BEVs and plug-in hybrids PHEVs. Charging a BEV in your house is very convenient. You can add that infrastructure to your garage in an afternoon. Even without DCFC stations, a lot of families will get a BEV as a second commuter car, or a PHEV as their only car. The low cost of operation is the incentive.

Currently, Toyota is running ads about how HEVs are better than PHEVs or BEVs, bc plugging in your car is just too darn hard!

Adoption of EVs varies, and may be more advanced than you think in 2022. Globally, EVs are 9% of the new car market. In China (which every maker saw as their future market) EV sales hit 30% this year. In Europe, it is 11%. In the US, EVs are 5% overall and 20% of new cars in California.

And EV sales are growing about 30-50% per year. Conservative projections have the US at 40% adoption in 2028-2029. And the EU there in 2025.

Japan is lagging EV adoption, and this thread is about the disinformation campaign that Toyota is running at home to suppress EV sales there.

Large companies get disrupted all the time. Think about Kodak. They were huge, and actually invented digital cameras. And as huge as they were... there was just less money in digital. Now we take 10X as many photos for 1% of the cost. And Kodak is GONE.

It seems pretty clear that EVs will get cheaper than ICE to buy, are already cheaper to operate, and will need a lot less maintenance bc they have far fewer moving parts. Charging are home is super cheap and easy. DCFC networks are getting expanded (to keep up with adoption), and the current generation of EVs fast charge at 150+ kW, or 200 miles of range in <15 minutes.

The first digital cameras were expensive and inferior to film cameras too, but that didn't last forever. And ad campaigns didn't save Kodak, and they won't save Toyota or any other maker that doesn't make the EV transition.
 
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bmwloco

Member
Jan 17, 2008
246
Asheville NC
I point this out to my Tacoma and Tundra driving friends. Toyota came out the Prius. 50+ mpg. While the Taco and Tundra get 20-23 on a good day with a tail wind.

Toyota sells Tacoma and Tundra like cord wood on a cold November day. Think they would adapt it from the Prius?

And... wait for it... biggest donor to the Republican Party. Ain't saying that's good or bad. You can make up your own mind.
 

stoveliker

Minister of Fire
Nov 17, 2019
6,202
Long Island NY
but you can't compare a truck with a prius...?
(Unless they would be able to do in a prius what they now do in their tacoma...)

I get a kick out of noting the following: I bought a new car 10 years ago. Pure ICE. Stick shift. I get 41 mpg.
And the car set me back $11 000 . New.
A 35k$ Prius might not be worth it if one only commutes, does groceries, or brings kids to school,

(Or highway driving - I've gone from TN to Long Island, from TN to Baton Rouge, from TN to Chicago numerous times in that thing.)
 

bmwloco

Member
Jan 17, 2008
246
Asheville NC
If Toyota doesn't have the engineering chops to adapt Prius parts to a Tocama.... Gawd help 'em as a design firm.

It's just plain lazy. And a money grab. Look at the money they make from Tocoma's and Tundra's. It's staggering.
 

woodgeek

Minister of Fire
Jan 27, 2008
4,773
SE PA
If Toyota doesn't have the engineering chops to adapt Prius parts to a Tocama.... Gawd help 'em as a design firm.

It's just plain lazy. And a money grab. Look at the money they make from Tocoma's and Tundra's. It's staggering.

More likely, they have decided that a hybrid truck would not sell well, or not sell well at a price with the same profit margin as the conventional ones.
 

SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
7,086
Downeast Maine
I point this out to my Tacoma and Tundra driving friends. Toyota came out the Prius. 50+ mpg. While the Taco and Tundra get 20-23 on a good day with a tail wind.

Toyota sells Tacoma and Tundra like cord wood on a cold November day. Think they would adapt it from the Prius?

And... wait for it... biggest donor to the Republican Party. Ain't saying that's good or bad. You can make up your own mind.
They do not sell them like cordwood. In 2018 Ford sold nearly ten times as many F150's as Toyota did Tundras. Toyota sales are statistically insignificant when compared to the entire truck market. Where Toyota really shines, or at least used to, was the sedan market with the Corolla and the Camry. For Toyota's best year in 2017 they sold 521,000 Hiluxes, which is a global market vehicle, compared to the F150 at 898,000 sales for the same year.
 

LogCabinFever

New Member
May 24, 2021
59
CT, USA
Do any of you guys follow the industry?

Lol. A thread for nothing.

Don’t get me wrong. It does look like the shift is to EVs. They just aren’t there yet. Sure, charging in your garage is convenient if it’s your daily commuter. But not for long distance or off grid travel. ICE still has the upper hand for now.

As far as cost to own, i’d have to research that. My guess is that EV is still more expensive. Our electric rates in NE are some of the highest in the country. On the home heating front, electric is far more expensive than fossil fuels with the exception of heat pumps. But yes, I do believe once the infrastructure is there and the technology has advanced, that will reverse. Regardless, every manufacture is convinced that some EV production is required to stay relevant.

By the way, Kodak is still alive (despite filing Chapter 11 years ago), they’re just in a different industry. My father-in-law is a current employee. They focus primarily on large scale corporate printing applications.
 

semipro

Minister of Fire
Jan 12, 2009
4,214
SW Virginia
And ofc the US grid is getting greener all the time. Since cars are going to be in use for 15-20 years, the calculation should be based upon what the grid looks like not now, but in 10 years. But that is a whole other projection.
Yep. Plus I can make electricity at home pretty easily so when supply chains fail and motor fuel is tight I can still get around in my EV while my Tacoma sits at home under our PV solar carport.
I see EVs as security - for my country, for me, and for my kids (energy, mobility, and environment, respectively).
 
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bmwloco

Member
Jan 17, 2008
246
Asheville NC
What I am saying is this:

Toyota could have made a hybrid pickup, if they wanted to; but they were making $$$$$ off old designs, so why bother? It's about MONEY kids, plain and simple.

Ford, Tesla, GM, they make Electric vehicles and people buy them all.

Toyota is loafing at best.
 

peakbagger

Minister of Fire
Jul 11, 2008
7,683
Northern NH
The new 2023 Tacoma is supposed to be offered as a hybrid. Tentatively it will have the solid state batteries that Toyota is betting on for longer battery range. Trucks typically have far longer redesign cycles than cars, the current body was redesigned in 2015, the prior version was on the market for11 years so the upcoming 2023 redesign is actually early. As someone noted, compared to full sized trucks, the Tacoma is not a huge market in the US and the world market is not clamoring for hybrids as base vehicles thus the numbers probably so not match to have two new distinct models one hybrid and one gas so its compromise. As I commented before, we are still waiting for an EV light truck designed from scratch and produced in volume, as Tesla has been proving its taking a lot longer than they promised.

BTW the old LJ based pickups from the 70s are still produced in the middle east and some are being converted to electric mining vehicles (some of them used in canadian mines)
 
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woodgeek

Minister of Fire
Jan 27, 2008
4,773
SE PA
Do any of you guys follow the industry?


Yes. The announcement is vaporware. Promises to spend (small) money to transition in 2030 or even later. LOL.

This is a real thing. The other makers played similar games for the last decade, making all kinds of promises just beyond the horizon, and not delivering on them. The difference is that the other makers have broken ground and are scaling production now, many years after making announcements like Toyota's in 2021.

The same Verge article points out that at the same time Toyota is making this empty announcement, they are still lobbying in the US against EV incentives in 2021!
 

SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
7,086
Downeast Maine
Yes. The announcement is vaporware. Promises to spend (small) money to transition in 2030 or even later. LOL.

This is a real thing. The other makers played similar games for the last decade, making all kinds of promises just beyond the horizon, and not delivering on them. The difference is that the other makers have broken ground and are scaling production now, many years after making announcements like Toyota's in 2021.

The same Verge article points out that at the same time Toyota is making this empty announcement, they are still lobbying in the US against EV incentives in 2021!
They really are a modern interpretation of 60's/70's GM in reaction to the Clean Air Act. Unbelievable that a company that got a foothold in the US auto market by capitalizing on changing markets is fighting this current change. It seems that VW and GM will fight for supremacy, but VAG has a leg up in BEV development.
 

SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
7,086
Downeast Maine
The new 2023 Tacoma is supposed to be offered as a hybrid. Tentatively it will have the solid state batteries that Toyota is betting on for longer battery range. Trucks typically have far longer redesign cycles than cars, the current body was redesigned in 2015, the prior version was on the market for11 years so the upcoming 2023 redesign is actually early. As someone noted, compared to full sized trucks, the Tacoma is not a huge market in the US and the world market is not clamoring for hybrids as base vehicles thus the numbers probably so not match to have two new distinct models one hybrid and one gas so its compromise. As I commented before, we are still waiting for an EV light truck designed from scratch and produced in volume, as Tesla has been proving its taking a lot longer than they promised.

BTW the old LJ based pickups from the 70s are still produced in the middle east and some are being converted to electric mining vehicles (some of them used in canadian mines)
Volvo is heavily investing in BEV and PHEV options for mining operations. I'll try and dig up the article.
 

EbS-P

Minister of Fire
Jan 19, 2019
3,518
SE North Carolina
What I am saying is this:

Toyota could have made a hybrid pickup, if they wanted to; but they were making $$$$$ off old designs, so why bother? It's about MONEY kids, plain and simple.

Ford, Tesla, GM, they make Electric vehicles and people buy them all.

Toyota is loafing at best.
They do They have a hybrid V6 for the sequoia.

89252035-4CBF-4346-A19B-B23509407F43.png
 
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begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
96,254
South Puget Sound, WA
Toyota does make reliable if bland cars. They know their market and getting 40-50mpg with a Camry Hybrid is a laudable accomplishment.

There was an interesting posting in the RAV4 Prime forum where a guy traded in his Mustang Mach-E for a RAV prime. Rather than interpret, I will include the entire posting here:

Having a totally electric car was on my "bucket list" as I've had many ICE vehicles and three hybrids and I'm also a "Ford" man so when the order banks opened up I ordered one not knowing anything about BEV cars. My Mach E was, and is lovely and I really liked it in the beginning. It was great to pass up gas stations selling gas at almost $5/gallon. Just plug it in in my garage with my Grizzl-E L2 charger and I was all set. The torque on the car is incredible and it is really fast off the line! Everybody oogled the car as it was so unique. Then the quirks of owning a totally electric car started to set in. It has a standard range battery with a 210 mile range with a 100% SOC. That distance isn't very far compared to the range on ICE vehicles and hybrid vehicles. This is known to cause "range anxiety" and I have it but my wife REALLY is anxious about it. To make matters worse, the battery loses 30-40% of its range in cold weather making it evermore of a problem (and less range yet if you run the heater). Then there is the problem of the electric grid and infrastructure. There are NOT enough DC fast chargers available and for us taking a long trip in it was out of the question. Sure, the die hards on the Mach E Forum drove their cars long distances but they really had to plan their routes and stay waiting 30-40 minutes at each charging EVSE to get to 80% SOC. I can fill my gas tank in 5 minutes. What drove me over the edge is that the high voltage junction box contactors in the battery were overheating and welding shut or open when they started arcing. Ford will NOT replace the HVJB's until they fail and I don't want to be stranded somewhere when mine fails (it's a question of when, not if). I feel like I'm driving a "time bomb" and it is no longer a reliable car in my eyes. My wife has been urging me to sell it also as she was never wild about a battery operated car in the first place (her range anxiety is far worse than mine). The RAV4 P plug-in hybrid seems like the logical choice and is far more practical than the Mach E is for us anyway. We still can drive electric around home and switch to hybrid for longer trips. The range of the RAV4 P is significantly further and we don't have to worry about finding a DC EVSE. Bottom line for me is that totally electric cars are not ready for "Prime" (get it 😅) time yet! I like not contributing to climate change but I am most definitely NOT a tree hugger! The PHEV helps with carbon emissions and the entire concept is just more practical for my wife and I. Thus we are selling it now while we can get a trade-in which is MORE than we paid for it originally, Ya have to strike while the fire is hot! I'm looking forward to the RAV4 as it is more like all our previous cars with knobs and switches, etc., instead of running everything on the huge tablet like interface in the Mach E (my fat fingers didn't help either). I'm 73 and my wife is 72 and the RAV4 will be a better fit for many reasons (most of which I have already commented on). BUT, if you want a nice totally electric car and are used to all the quirks of owning and rumnning one I can recommend it (as the newer models don't have the HVJB issues). I like it better than Tesla as I think it has a better fit and finish. Good luck finding one though; they are as scarce as a RAV4 Prime (maybe even mores). Mike
 

EbS-P

Minister of Fire
Jan 19, 2019
3,518
SE North Carolina
Has anyone see a tear down on the newest hybrid? Here is one for the 16-22. I don’t se how an electric traction motor and a charging motor and an ICE can be cheaper than a single drive unit that does regen.
 

woodgeek

Minister of Fire
Jan 27, 2008
4,773
SE PA
Toyota does make reliable if bland cars. They know their market and getting 40-50mpg with a Camry Hybrid is a laudable accomplishment.

There was an interesting posting in the RAV4 Prime forum where a guy traded in his Mustang Mach-E for a RAV prime. Rather than interpret, I will include the entire posting here:

Having a totally electric car was on my "bucket list" as I've had many ICE vehicles and three hybrids and I'm also a "Ford" man so when the order banks opened up I ordered one not knowing anything about BEV cars. My Mach E was, and is lovely and I really liked it in the beginning. It was great to pass up gas stations selling gas at almost $5/gallon. Just plug it in in my garage with my Grizzl-E L2 charger and I was all set. The torque on the car is incredible and it is really fast off the line! Everybody oogled the car as it was so unique. Then the quirks of owning a totally electric car started to set in. It has a standard range battery with a 210 mile range with a 100% SOC. That distance isn't very far compared to the range on ICE vehicles and hybrid vehicles. This is known to cause "range anxiety" and I have it but my wife REALLY is anxious about it. To make matters worse, the battery loses 30-40% of its range in cold weather making it evermore of a problem (and less range yet if you run the heater). Then there is the problem of the electric grid and infrastructure. There are NOT enough DC fast chargers available and for us taking a long trip in it was out of the question. Sure, the die hards on the Mach E Forum drove their cars long distances but they really had to plan their routes and stay waiting 30-40 minutes at each charging EVSE to get to 80% SOC. I can fill my gas tank in 5 minutes. What drove me over the edge is that the high voltage junction box contactors in the battery were overheating and welding shut or open when they started arcing. Ford will NOT replace the HVJB's until they fail and I don't want to be stranded somewhere when mine fails (it's a question of when, not if). I feel like I'm driving a "time bomb" and it is no longer a reliable car in my eyes. My wife has been urging me to sell it also as she was never wild about a battery operated car in the first place (her range anxiety is far worse than mine). The RAV4 P plug-in hybrid seems like the logical choice and is far more practical than the Mach E is for us anyway. We still can drive electric around home and switch to hybrid for longer trips. The range of the RAV4 P is significantly further and we don't have to worry about finding a DC EVSE. Bottom line for me is that totally electric cars are not ready for "Prime" (get it 😅) time yet! I like not contributing to climate change but I am most definitely NOT a tree hugger! The PHEV helps with carbon emissions and the entire concept is just more practical for my wife and I. Thus we are selling it now while we can get a trade-in which is MORE than we paid for it originally, Ya have to strike while the fire is hot! I'm looking forward to the RAV4 as it is more like all our previous cars with knobs and switches, etc., instead of running everything on the huge tablet like interface in the Mach E (my fat fingers didn't help either). I'm 73 and my wife is 72 and the RAV4 will be a better fit for many reasons (most of which I have already commented on). BUT, if you want a nice totally electric car and are used to all the quirks of owning and rumnning one I can recommend it (as the newer models don't have the HVJB issues). I like it better than Tesla as I think it has a better fit and finish. Good luck finding one though; they are as scarce as a RAV4 Prime (maybe even mores). Mike
I liked this post, bc it made perfect sense to me.

I owned and road-tripped in my 2014 (Gen 1) Nissan LEAF, with a '100 mile' range, back when NONE of the current EA or EVGo DCFCs existed. All I had was a couple 24 kW units between Philly and NYC, 100 miles away. On the highway in winter... range was less than 60 miles. Or about 50 minutes at highway speeds.

And the fact is, I would think twice about buying a BEV with a 210 mile EPA range in 2022, and I would never pay MachE prices for one (about $50k). I leased my 2022 Bolt EV, with an OK 260 mile range, for the equivalent of $27k MSRP, a little over half of the Ford. And even then, I kept my 2015 Volt in case I have to do a longer winter road trips (or give my kids a used car).

This works for me bc my major use cases beyond daily driving are a 200 mile beach trip and a 250 mile trip to family. The former requires no DCFC at all, the latter a single very short stop (like 20 minutes).

I fully expect the Bolt will get on my nerves a little with the low range in winter (probably 170-180 miles with winter tires), and the 50 kW DCFC will be a minor drag as well on longer road trips... but its a 3 year lease. I will get a much more capable car in 3 years for a similar or lower price.

What's my point? For all the hype, there IS a case to be made AGAINST buying a BEV in 2022. There are expensive EVs, and low range EVs, and people living in apartments, and folks with long distance use cases, etc.

Also, all the makers making EVs for the first time... there is gonna be a huge pile of kinks to work out. For example:
—The LEAF batteries were short life, esp in hot climates.
—The Gen 1 Tesla model S developed drive unit axle cracks, so many were replaced multiple times under warranty in the same vehicle.
—The Gen 1 Bolt batteries (actually mostly the 2019s) would burn up sometimes (as would the several Korean makes that used the same battery, but didn't get any press).
—Toyota's current first BEV has problems with the wheels falling off (LOL).
—The MachE has a defective main contactor (relay) that can leave people stranded or worse.
and many more...

Its certainly not a no-brainer to get an EV. Caveat Emptor.
 
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begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
96,254
South Puget Sound, WA
Yes, it's why we have the Volt for now. Its 65 mile range covers 90+% of all our driving, and the range extending generator eliminates range anxiety. Our next car, if there is one, will be a BEV, but that may not be for a few years. And we have the van so our needs are covered for now as battery tech and infrastructure improve.

There are some cases where BEVs are going to be a challenge, like extreme northern climates and rural areas of the west. I mean, how much infrastructure will be practical to put in for Wyoming or western Kansas, or Nebraska?
 
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SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
7,086
Downeast Maine
Yes, it's why we have the Volt for now. Its 65 mile range covers 90+% of all our driving, and the range extending generator eliminates range anxiety. Our next car, if there is one, will be a BEV, but that may not be for a few years. And we have the van so our needs are covered for now as battery tech and infrastructure improve.

There are some cases where BEVs are going to be a challenge, like extreme northern climates and rural areas of the west. I mean, how much infrastructure will be practical to put in for Wyoming or western Kansas, or Nebraska?
I like to think we will get a BEV, or at least PHEV, in the future, but realistically I'm not sure if we will ever *need* to buy a new car.
 
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begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
96,254
South Puget Sound, WA
True that, both of our cars were used on purchase. That's another advantage of waiting until low-mileage BEVs show up on the used market.