So, what is the vote, ?, Do we want to see them fail?
I don't want to see anyone fail. I am sure the Japanese are going to develop BEVs at some point, perhaps a few years late and with a govt bailout, and PR being what it is, will claim to be leading the others with better tech, when they are bringing up the rear.
The essential point is that no one is saying we have to go all EVs in 2023, or 2025. The usual figure is 2035-ish. In my mind, the transition is going to be slow and organic and require changing a lot of minds and building out a lot of infrastructure. The generational change (younger people are more on board with EVs) is already on its way. This is NOT as easy as swapping out incandescent bulbs for LED ones.
But remember, production of light ICE vehicles peaked in 2017! https://www.hearth.com/talk/threads/the-rise-of-evs-some-data.193584/
This is not some foolish politician (insert your favorite) deciding EVs are good and laying out a foolish and impossible mandate. That is a cartoon of how public policy is decided. In reality, experts and academics, often in consultation with corporations and makers try to predict future market trends... and then design that public policy (like an incentive) around the projection.
So we shouldn't be surprised when there is consensus. The US makers, the pols in different countries and different states are all looking at the same 2035 projection and planning their product lines and factory rework to that. Which of course still involves building a decade's worth of new ICE vehicles while ramping down.
The EU and China makers are working with a slightly faster timeline... bc they are a few years ahead of us on adoption for a variety of reasons.
And against this backdrop, we have a rather monolithic set of makers in Japan, that are saying the other projections are just wrong. Without providing any real modeling or data other than the usual talking points and FUD. This happens with fat and happy incumbents sometimes... they just stick their fingers in their ears and say 'No' we don't HAVE to do that, and they throw their PR and lobbying money at the politicians to block and slow and delay the existing public policy path (which is science and math driven).
This is no different than fossil energy incumbents blocking anything Renewable in the fed and state govts. Delay Delay Dealy while they make a few more years of fat profits. And making a cloud of PR and FUD that those bought pols can point to as (fake) science to justify their bad policy directions.
This is no different than Tobacco companies doing fake science and blocking anti-smoking campaigns.
The Japanese makers LIKE the status quo (they are on top, after all), and think that delaying and fake policy arguments and FUD is just fine.
And the irony is that tobacco and fossil companies can't really switch to other substitute products.
Legacy car makers CAN switch to EVs... but there is a problem. The revenue and profits associated with the new vehicles will be much lower. The vehicles have far fewer moving parts. Maintenance will be lower. The dealers and repair people and spare parts makers will all get much smaller.
So even as the volume of vehicles grows, the total revenue of the car industry is going to shrink. Not everyone can survive at their current scale.