The rise of EVs.... some data.

[woodgeek]

We have been discussing the EV revolution a bit around here lately, and talking about issues around charging infrastructure, grid reliability and mineral availability.

Several outfits do large modeling efforts to generate forecasts. Not unlike the old Exxon 'World Energy Outlooks' that always featured fossil demand increasing until 2100. LOL.

One of these is Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). They dropped a nice report on the rise of EVs. The executive summary is free. It does ask you for your contact info to access parts of the slide deck, but I think you can enter garbage into the form and it will take it.

EVO Report 2024 | BloombergNEF | Bloomberg Finance LP

The Electric Vehicle Outlook is our annual long-term publication looking at how electrification, shared mobility, autonomous driving and other factors will impact road transport in the coming decades.

about.bnef.com

Scroll down to the bottom for the slide deck.

What did I learn?

Past:
-- Production of new ICE vehicles peaked globally in 2017 (!!) and is now in 'terminal decline'.

Current (2022):
-- EVs are 9% share of new passenger car sales on a global basis. There are 16M on the road, about 1.5 % of cars in service. Note: less than 20% of these vehicles have a Tesla badge.
-- EVs are 44% share of new bus sales on a global basis. There are 680,000 on the road. This is 18% of in service buses globally.
-- EVs are 42% of 2 and 3 wheeled vehicles sold globally. There are 250M in service (!!). 40% of in service 3-wheelers in India are already EVs.
-- For EV cars, China and the EU's EV adoption curves (similar) are about ~4 years ahead of the US, Canada and S. Korea (who are similar). Driven by their heavier subsidies.
-- Japan and Australia are about 3 years behind the US/Canada/Korea. This might be why Toyota/Honda are laggards on EV offerings, or those companies being laggards could explain the slower adoption curves.
-- EVs currently offset 1.5 M barrels of oil per day. Of this, most is due to 2/3 wheelers. EV cars only offset about 200,000 Barrels a day currently.
-- Global oil demand from passenger cars, buses and 2/3 wheelers has already peaked... commercial vehicles are propping up demand.

Forecast (before 2030):
-- EV cars are expected to reach 40% of new sales in China/EU in 2025. The 40% figure in the US/Canada/Korea is predicted for 2029.
-- Peak demand for gasoline/oil for global road transport is projected to form a broad peak in 2027/2028, using conservative estimates for commercial vehicle adoption.
-- High mineral costs due to surging demand will likely push the cost parity between EVs and ICE vehicles to the late 2020s, versus early 2020s as predicted earlier. Note: this is being factored into all forecasts.

Forecast (after 2030):
-- Complete electrification of road transport will NOT occur by 2050 with current incentives.
-- In a business as usual (BAU) model (assume market forces and current incentives continue but are not expanded), global oil demand for road transport falls from 44 M barrels/day to 34 M barrels/day by 2040 and 21 M barrels/day by 2050.
-- The BAU model predicts that EVs increase global electricity demand by 3% in 2030, 10% in 2040 and 15% in 2050.
-- Complete electrification of road transport would require slightly more than currently estimated global reserves of Lithium, assuming no recycling and current battery chemistry formulations. The situation for Cobalt is only slightly better.
-- Assuming recycling and newer battery formulations, complete electrification of road transport needs about 40% of currently known Lithium reserves and 20% of Cobalt reserves. Of course, more minerals are usually found when demands occurs, but development takes more than a decade.
-- Complete electrification would increase 2050 grid loads by only 21%.

Bonus: For a survey of the green energy and EV mineral issue, Dave Roberts has a post (or a podcast if you prefer):

The minerals used by clean-energy technologies

For the second post in my clean-energy minerals series, I take a somewhat technical detour into specifics. To wit: which technologies use which minerals, and which mineral markets are expected to grow most? (Spoiler: bet big on aluminum and graphite.)

www.volts.wtf

 

[SpaceBus]

I'm 100% certain recycling infrastructure will develop.

 

[Dan Freeman]

LOL. Is that before the country goes down the tubes? Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[SpaceBus]

LOL. Is that before the country goes down the tubes? Sorry, couldn't resist.

Find a news broadcast from any year, the country is always going down the tubes. It sells ad spaces.

 

[Ashful]

Find a news broadcast from any year, the country is always going down the tubes. It sells ad spaces.

For an entertaining look at this, read some of the correspondence between Adams and Jefferson, in their later years. Summary: "kids, these days."

-- High mineral costs due to surging demand will likely push the cost parity between EVs and ICE vehicles to the late 2020s, versus early 2020s as predicted earlier.

This is the single most important point, IMO. Although the current trends are impressive, the masses vote and buy on their wallets.

 

[begreen]

I'm 100% certain recycling infrastructure will develop.

Agreed, it's a necessity of design in Europe. I have already invested in one company laying the groundwork for this. There are several and more are bound to arise.

In other news, in Switzerland this year they are testing bidirectional charging with cars as a power bank in a 50 EV project.
(broken link removed to https://switzerlandtimes.ch/business/mobility-is-testing-dozens-of-electric-cars-as-power-banks/)

 

[brenndatomu]

Nothing like plugging the car in to top off for a trip and then come out only to find the tank instead empty becuase the utility needed mo powah!

 

[stoveliker]

I think that that is a non-issue. Or at least it should be.
1. I would expect a notification when the utility wants power.
2. I think one should (will!) have a "veto" for cases when the utility wants power. Obviously this could have financial consequences (reduced pay-out, not only because less kWhs are delivered, but also because - well, because as a utility I would set up a contract like that).

I think the system will be "mo powah" and money to the owner of the battery, as they can (should be able to) override what the utility requests.

 

[brenndatomu]

I would also expect to be able to veto their request...but knowing how busy things get right before a trip...I could see forgetting to toggle that feature off (if its normally on) too

 

[begreen]

Nothing like plugging the car in to top off for a trip and then come out only to find the tank instead empty becuase the utility needed mo powah!

Why would it work that way? It's not automatic. The user opts in for this to happen and programs when the car needs to be fully charged to make whatever journey is next planned, be it heading home from work, or off on a trip. If concerned that day, just don't plugin to a bi-directional charger.

 

[semipro]

In other news, in Switzerland this year they are testing bidirectional charging with cars as a power bank in a 50 EV project.
(broken link removed to https://switzerlandtimes.ch/business/mobility-is-testing-dozens-of-electric-cars-as-power-banks/)

After reading the summary provided by @woodgeek (thanks for doing that BTW) I wondered how distributed renewable generation, and in particular, residential PV would play into the projections cited. I think that those driving EVs will be more inclined to generate power at home.

There seems to be a disconnect between producing power at home during the day and driving an EV to work where charging infrastructure is likely very limited and potentially expensive when compared to at-home generation. The alternative is to buy an EV with sufficient range to get you to work and then home again and to charge at night when the sun isn't shining.

It seems to me that real gains on both PV and EV implementation will likely be dependent upon either:
a) Available workplace charging debited against home generation production (rather than paying retail) I don't see the financial incentive for this BTW.
b) Grid storage (which we all know is sorely needed). Home storage would also work but is an expensive alternative.
c) or some hybrid of both

I love where we're headed in general with EVs and other electric adoption (e.g off-road equipment), but I'm still skeptical that advancement of the infrastructure and methods required to support the growth some want will progress enough to prevent some big problems and maybe even an outright rejection of the technologies by the masses.

 

[begreen]

I would also expect to be able to veto their request...but knowing how busy things get right before a trip...I could see forgetting to toggle that feature off (if its normally on) too

With high amperage DC chargers coming online, the biggest inconvenience might be having to charge up for 15 minutes at the nearest DC charge station, hopefully one along the route.

 

[peakbagger]

The utility pays out money to power producers for "capacity". The producer guarantees that if the utility calls, the power plant can produce a certain capacity of power, if they can not, they have to pay the utility to go out and buy the power on the open market at the time of the power demand. Therefore the plants that accept their annual capacity payments take a big risk if they can not live up to their commitment. This also helps a developer to build a plant as they can count on capacity. One of the big differences with the Texas power market is there are no capacity payments and thus no penalty for non delivery of power. If the freeze up they miss a high grid price but no penalty.

So why not give the EV driver the same incentive/penalty? Pay them a fee to have their battery capacity available for grid support. When a grid demand event is declared, they can veto the grid injection from the EV but they get to pay a penalty to the utility. I guarantee most consumers will gladly take the money and then raise heck when they have to pay a penalty (reminds me of the recent news on the utility out west that took control of thermostats during a demand issue, great headlines but they were getting paid for that possibility)

 

[Ashful]

I'm still skeptical that advancement of the infrastructure and methods required to support the growth some want will progress enough to prevent some big problems and maybe even an outright rejection of the technologies by the masses.

Ignoring a likely 2020 blip from COVID (and because I don't have that data), US household energy usage has been on a steady decline, since peaking in 2010. Thank LED lighting, HPWH's, and increased efficiency from many 1990's appliances due for replacement about that time. Point is... expectation of infrastructure growth requirements for EV's should be at least somewhat tempered by otherwise-decreasing usage per capita.

 

[EbS-P]

Thanks for posting. the 2/3 wheel segment just isn’t here (did see one battery cycle fly past a while ago.)

 

[Ashful]

Thanks for posting. the 2/3 wheel segment just isn’t here (did see one battery cycle fly past a while ago.)

They're going to be a tough sell to that "until your friends see you," crowd.

 

[begreen]

I saw someone on an electric unicycle yesterday on the way home. Strange, but cool. I see some of them are quite sophisticated.

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[SpaceBus]

I want an electric motorcycle. The cost of ownership would be so low, and the fun/$ ratio would be enormous. Probably too fast for me and I would get into trouble, so I'll need something like a Ural 2WD EV conversion.

 

[stoveliker]

In German cities battery powered scooters sometimes dominate the landscape. Bicycles are a second. (In The Netherlands this is the other way around.)

That is the "2 wheel segment" in Europe.
I am ambivalent about these as most of this transportation was either walking or bus (for the scooter, and the buses being electric to a large degree too), or human powered bicycling. I.e. this large 2-wheel segment has a large *additional energy usage* component. This is *not* good for energy use and environmental concerns.

 

[stoveliker]

So why not give the EV driver the same incentive/penalty? Pay they a fee to have their battery capacity available for grid support. If when a grid demand event is declared, they can veto the grid injection from the EV but they get to pay a penalty to the utility.

Precisely that is what I meant above.

 

[woodgeek]

After reading the summary provided by @woodgeek (thanks for doing that BTW) I wondered how distributed renewable generation, and in particular, residential PV would play into the projections cited. I think that those driving EVs will be more inclined to generate power at home.

There seems to be a disconnect between producing power at home during the day and driving an EV to work where charging infrastructure is likely very limited and potentially expensive when compared to at-home generation. The alternative is to buy an EV with sufficient range to get you to work and then home again and to charge at night when the sun isn't shining.

It seems to me that real gains on both PV and EV implementation will likely be dependent upon either:
a) Available workplace charging debited against home generation production (rather than paying retail) I don't see the financial incentive for this BTW.
b) Grid storage (which we all know is sorely needed). Home storage would also work but is an expensive alternative.
c) or some hybrid of both

I love where we're headed in general with EVs and other electric adoption (e.g off-road equipment), but I'm still skeptical that advancement of the infrastructure and methods required to support the growth some want will progress enough to prevent some big problems and maybe even an outright rejection of the technologies by the masses.

You are 100% correct that the current rooftop solar and net metering system relies upon a 'grid battery' that does not exist, except for accounting purposes. Rooftop PV and net metering can provide some percentage of supply, but it does NOT scale to a 100% renewable system, as it neither handles (nor accounts for) diurnal variation or seasonal variations. Adding some EVs with fancy V2G capability will not fix that basic problem.

But the main conclusion here is not that we should be skeptical that a highly renewable energy system is possible. Instead, we can conclude that rooftop solar without storage is not going to be a big player in that future renewable energy system. Rather, it is a bunch of homeowners deciding to make a long-term, low return, low risk investment and collect some subsidies. And that is all it is.

Now that PV tech is so cheap, large scale installations by investors are already outpacing rooftop installs and outcompeting them on prices. Many estimates of solar installed on the grid don't even bother to include rooftop solar, or just add a small estimated %. So in many favorable locations utility scale solar has already blown past rooftop, and THAT will race up to the point where grid mgmt becomes an issue.

Then, installing new solar without storage (other than rooftop with grandfathered rules) will be less economical due to saturation during high production periods. Three things can happen... (1) the investor in the large scale solar installation can add storage and sell power off-peak, (2) the utility can just add storage by itself or (3) the utility can pay homeowners to help out by using their EVs for storage or offer TOU rates for load mgmt.

(1) and (2) are using the same battery tech at the same scale. Presumably BOTH will happen, depending on whether the utility can be bothered (and is allowed by local rules) to install storage. (3) will happen or NOT happen depending on its cost relative to (1) and (2).

My first guess is that EV owners will use TOU rates to charge cheaply, providing a very valuable demand management resource for the utility, and they will pass those savings onto the EV owner. IOW, just what is happening in most EV-heavy markets today. I can buy kWh for under 5 cents delivered for my EV.

As you point out Andy, in the future, the cheap rates are likely to be when the sun is shining, versus when the legacy nukes are cranking with low demand (midnight to 6 AM as now). Will EV owners then use their work-provided TOU chargers to save a few bucks, versus charging at home? Some probably will. Some won't be bothered. But none of that issue exists for grid storage (1) and (2). If EV based storage is not enough by itself (and I have never heard anyone predict it would be).. it doesn't matter. Grid storage will cover it.

Bottom line: With most tech, you can do something yourself, requiring you buy a lot of equipment and at the cost of your attention OR you can pay a company to do it all for you, at a cost to them that is lower (bc of scale) than doing it yourself, with them netting a fair profit.

Example: You CAN make all your own electricity at home, but its $$$ upfront, a lot of work to maintain and costs 3X what the utility charges.

A future renewable-heavy grid is not going to be rooftop + EVs + Tesla powerwalls in every home, and you figuring out what to do if your EV is at work while the sun is shining. It is all going to be utility scale, and 90+% of users are just gonna plug their stuff in, flip a switch and pay their bills. Just like today.

 

[EbS-P]

it’s not a single solution problem. If I could install a a small, say 2-3kw, solar with 5-10 kWh storage as an off grid system to run a 1-2 ton mini split. (So I have not done any calculation I’m just guessing here.) the EV could be a dump and charged from off grid system. Stands to reason this type of system could cut peak residential demand substantially without even being managed by a utility. If I am running 270 kWh a month to my BEV a My guess is a 2 Kw solar install would be about the right size. Go to 3 kw and add a heatpump. Or just grid tie.

 

[Poindexter]

Can I put in a prop for the working poor here please? My copy of "Solar Power for Dummies" just got here yesterday. I also got some gas today, just for the data point.

On the one hand, I pumped 11.703 gallons (of 90 octane Chevron) in 1 minute, 15.71 seconds, today, at pump #3 at the Chevron station closest to my office. This doesn't include feeding my VISA card to the pump head or fooling with the hoses, just pump time. I am not sure how many amps that would be on a 220v charging circuit, and I am not going to figure it out tonight, but I bet it is more or less equal to (or greater than) the 100 amp 220volt service that feeds my entire house.

Now picture an ideal case among the working poor. Picture say a 2 year old and a 4 year old child. One of the two parents could have earned a bachelors in say accounting, the other could have gone to VoTech to become say an ASE certified mechanic. Instead of going on welfare this couple has chosen to stay together, raise their children together, dad is working two fulltime jobs at or near minimum wage, plus a weekend gig, mom is working one full time job (night shift) and grandma is roped in to childcare at shift changes instead of being the grandma she hoped to be. If your home state did not opt in for the MedicAid expansion under president Barak this family is screwed. If your home state did opt in, they are one motor vehicle accident away from financial catastrophe.

A few years from today this family is going to have a bottom feeder EV and they are going to have to charge it. They haven't had more than 1/4 tank of gas in their ratty ICE vehicle since 2007. If the EV cannot be charged at one or another of the parent's four jobs, game over; the vehicle is simply not at home long enough to be charged at home. They are renting housing, if there is a PV system on the roof they are not benefitting from it.

I don't mean to open a can of worms here, but how can we logically and compassionately include the folks that are already busting their collective humps in this inevitable transition? It is far too late to invoke Acts chapter 15, Elvis left the building four years ago (qv).

 

[woodgeek]

@Poindexter, two things:

I don't want to go down the rabbit hole here.... your concern is admirable, but contrary to popular opinion/intuition, the transition will lower costs to people across the income/wealth distribution. And it will bring health benefits.

It is very easy for us to spin all kinds of scenarios. We can imagine coal miners thrown out of work. We can imagine welfare queens driving cadillacs that never work a day. We can imagine millions of new permanent jobs building solar farms. But all those are just stories that don't hold up to actual demographics. The number of coal miners in the US is less than the number of people working for JC Penney. There never were any welfare queens. And building solar farms doesn't create any long-term jobs, except for sheep to graze under the panels.

My knowledge of people with lower incomes (friends and myself when I was younger) is that cars ARE a large part of their budget. And they are not one car accident away from disaster, they live in fear of a major car REPAIR surprise bringing financial disaster. Current long range, low cost EVs like the Bolt or the Volt are already lower total cost of ownership TCO than similar vintage and size ICE sedans. And are much more reliable and lower maintenance.

The new tax rebates on new EVs will push down the cost of new EVs and their resale price, and the used EV rebate will further reduce the purchase price on those cheaper used EVs. These are still rare in the used market (bc the sales volumes were so much smaller 5-10 years ago). The used EV rebate has no requirement for 'made in America', it's all EVs.

There is also the issue of environmental justice. The poor are also living in neighborhoods with much higher pollution, and working jobs with much higher exposure to toxic compounds. Would you want to live (with your small children) a block downwind of a gas station or a mile downwind of a chemical refinery? If I go to an urban gas station, I can find a bunch of families doing just that. Those folks will have 1.5 to 2x the lifetime cancer risk if they live there awhile. The poor have a much lower life expectancy than the average, due to many different reasons, but air pollution is one. Look at asthma rates sometime.

I will tell a true story of a friend of mine, a schoolteacher who owns her own small home in a working class neighborhood, and drives a paid off 15 yo Volvo wagon with close to 200k miles. She earns a good living, nice benes, and pays all her bills. But is worried the Volvo is gonna crap out, and she'll have to scramble to pay a giant bill, or get a new (used) car with a fat payment. And then gas was crazy this summer, and she was paying $125 to fill up that tank. And spending a lot of time at BJ's waiting in line for gas to save a bit.

So after I got my new 22 EV in May, I lent her my 2015 Volt. I had a 100' 12 AWG extension cord and a spare L1 EVSE in my garage. She and I set her up with that in 15 minutes, so she could charge at home. We later got a $50 adapter to share a 240V dryer outlet so she can charge at 3 kW L2 with the same rig. She says she's saving $200/mo just on gas, probably $150 now that gas is down. And not having to sit in line at BJs every other week.

Before the recent run up in used cars, the Volt was worth about $10k on the used market in 2020. Not $60k. I think its up to $12k now for who knows how long. The new $4k rebate on used EVs would make the volt purchase cost $8k in 2023. That would be well within her budget if she wanted to buy one as her next car.

 

[woodgeek]

I would also expect to be able to veto their request...but knowing how busy things get right before a trip...I could see forgetting to toggle that feature off (if its normally on) too

Absolutely. My 22 Bolt is set to only charge midnight to 6AM (during a lower demand period, I might switch to TOU rates after I get more billing data) AND to only charge to 80% (to extend battery life).

Before a road trip, I have to hit the 'override' button to charge to 100%. And I have to remember to do so the day before I leave. If I forget, it costs me an extra 15 minutes fast charging on the road (bc my EV has 'slow' 55 kW faster charging). With newer EVs, the difference would be closer to 5-7 minutes.