Whence Toyota?!?

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Looks like a new 4 gen Prius is about to be announced. Expectations are that the Prime will return, maybe with a larger battery for greater EV range?
Battery supply doesn’t seem to effect Tesla production. Might other manufacturers. But it certainly would increase cost. And if EV range was a buyers deciding factor why not buy a BEV. My dad wants a hybrid just for the range, but the hybrid Sienna I drove last month only got 35 mpg on the interstate. I don’t think but will pay too much more for a hybrid. They need compete with the Bolt. And then try a mid size SUV again. Then a compact hatchback.
 
And if EV range was a buyers deciding factor why not buy a BEV.

A lot of folks are nervous about their major purchases. They don't trust what they hear in the media, esp if they give even a shred credence to the wall of FUD out there about EVs.

Then when one of their friends gets an EV, and the wheels don't fall off, it gets real for them. We got our first BEV in 2014, and two other families we know got their BEVs in 2015. Both families have now graduated to Tesla M3s, and I haven't. Too cheap. :mad:

Lots of people see Teslas or know someone with them, and blanch at the price (or the weirdness of the interior). The legacy BEVs are advertising for all they are worth... but (1) the advertised models are largely not available yet and (2) the prices are not advertised. My GF and I were cracking up that all the commercials during the world series were for my car (a Chevy EV) or her phone (a Samsung Flip 4).

When my GF's Mom found out that I got a BEV, the only thing that surprised her was the price, about $35k then, now reduced. She had heard the FUD that all BEVs cost north of $60k and tuned right out.
 
Toyota is a behind Tesla’s manufacturing efficiency/profitability. Tesla just started dropping prices in China as demand slowed. How far can they drop model 3 prices? Can they make a less expensive model. Every design choice was an extreme exercise in cost cutting. They are no longer using radar. 130$ saved per car. Times a million cars. They just increased profits by 130 million a year. No buttons no gear stalk. This was not driven by customer focus groups.

It may be weird not to have a button focused console. But my drive in Sienna I was so tuned off by all the buttons. I just wanted to touch the screen just like my phone.

Subaru can’t be profitable given the US’s competitive labor market but Tesla can.
 
I've said this years before, but I still believe it - the legacy Japanese car companies are completely unprepared for the EV future because they are highly engineering driven companies that are in love with refining their existing technologies and making them very reliable. They are loathe to walk away from combustion engines because they are very good at engineering and producing them. Those engines (and other associated pieces of the drivetrain) are very reliable. The interrelationship of all the parts suppliers to the vehicle OEMs is also problematic - the OEMs would have a hard time just walking away from their suppliers and seeing many of them go bankrupt because they have ownership stakes in them and/or it is culturally not ok for them to do that anyways.

Couple that with the fact that employees are loathe to change companies and employers are loathe to lay off employees, along with a cultural preference for employees to work for an established company and you get an industry that becomes very inbred, resistant to big changes and not challenged by startups, at least in their home countries. Japanese companies are also not great at taking advice or input about market dynamics from their overseas subsidiaries - "father knows best" is basically how it goes (yes, there are exceptions, of course).

Like him and/or Tesla or not, Elon Musk did the US automakers a huge favor by disrupting business as usual and forcing US automakers (and then Europeans) to recognize the coming market shift. To me, it looks like Ford and GM will make the transition to BEVs. Likely Stellantis will not (my opinion). I'm in an industry that sells to the power conversion industry and at a recent technical conference/exposition focusing on drives and power electronics in Detroit, GM was very well represented with technologies, people, space, actual vehicles and technologies ready for market, Ford had about half the presence GM had, and Stellantis had a 10'x10' booth with no furnishings and the standard black and white booth sign you get for free and a pathetic truck frame showing some prototype for a hybrid EV/gas drive train - and they were trying to recruit engineering talent! Anyone who is not as far as GM is right now , or close to it, with designs, production plans, plants, people, labs, etc. is not going to make the transition to the BEV future, or if they do, they will be a lesser company than they were before. I'm in a technology industry, and you can't afford to miss a technology shift and expect to be the same company you were before. The auto industry is making the shift to something known and predictable into a higher technology industry, and Toyota is dragging their feet on making this change.

This link highlights a good example of the problem facing Toyota and Honda (and Nissan too, since I consider them the Chrysler of Japan, despite their earlier, but relatively lousy, foray into BEVs, given all the battery management issues with the Leaf) https://electrek.co/2022/11/30/drivers-are-ditching-toyota-honda-gas-cars-for-electric-vehicles/

Yeah, there will be Toyota and Honda fan-boys and fan-girls who will wait until whenever for those companies to get their BEV lineup designed, but there will be plenty who won't wait, and the trickle that started a year ago is going to start turning into a torrent. The trend is probably masked a bit by supply chain issues and the economy, but when market share and sentiment turns against Toyota and Honda it will turn quickly. I may be wrong, but I think Toyota's market also skews older, so they have a Cadillac-type problem where they are not only going to lose market share due to poor product choices but also due to declining (for them) addressable market. I honestly don't know very many 20-40 year-old people that I work with who are very excited by anything made by Toyota or Honda.

Will Toyota and Honda survive? Sure, probably. They won't be the same. It took a long time (30+ years?) for GM to go from 50% US market share to where they are today - gross mismanagement and poor quality over many years and not building the vehicles people wanted were all contributors. Hey Toyota, thanks for the Prius, now move on and get going on BEVs - the Prius is a pretty friggin' boring unexceptional driving experience compared to any BEV. I expect that Toyota's market share will start slipping a quarter percent a year and just keep slipping for many, many years.

Honda will become the small car/car production facility for GM's BEV drivetrains (they are licensing them, from what I recall), as GM seems to have no interest in building anything that weighs less than 5000 pounds and isn't called a truck or an SUV, and frankly, their marketing department seems to have no understanding how to market smaller vehicles anyways.

I predict that Nissan will be a footnote, maybe Mitsubishi, Subaru, Nissan, and all the European companies Nissan is associated with make a go of it together. Don't know - but for the US market if all those companies basically went away I don't think they would be missed much in ten years. Even Subaru's niche of AWD isn't such a big deal anymore (though I do think they do AWD better than most, and Subaru would certainly be missed more than most).

Hyundai seems to get it - they likely occupy the spot that Toyota and Honda have today in the US, and China companies probably enter the market as the low-cost supplier (as Hyundai and Kia were 30 or so years ago).

Just my two cents.
 
I'm no expert, but it seems that competition is heating up in China, the worlds largest car market (for the foreseeable future).

Since this summer, the adoption rate of EVs in China has reached 40%, in the EU its 20% and the US will pass 6% (close to the all time peak for hybrids 10 years ago).

In China, the market is dominated by Tesla and BYD, and a dozen other smaller startups (also Chinese). The Chinese govt has a stated goal of wanting to dominate the future GLOBAL car industry, and sees the EV transition as its opportunity to do that. That is why they have incentivized EVs hard (harder than the EU), developed so much lithium/battery infrastructure, and dumped in a TON of startup money.

Unsurprisingly, there is currently a PRICE WAR going on, and Tesla is doing something that it hasn't done outside China... it is slashing prices to compete/defend market share. The Shanghai built versions of the Model 3 and Y are much cheaper there than outside China (and have cheaper LFP batteries and slightly shorter range). Compared to the US market, the Chinese market cares less about long range, and more about the latest tech.

During this price war, Tesla is at that top of reliability and opinion surveys among EV rankings in China. The startups have poor reliability and poorer fit and finish. Tesla is aiming to be the 'Toyota' of China... and pulling it off so far. Their market share has been stable and their quality ratings strong.

Several legacy makers, (notably) VW and also Ford were also selling a lot in China. Their sales have tanked during the price war (and tech/feature war).

What is going on? As Uncle Warren says, when the tide goes out, you see who is swimming without any trunks on. In this case, its COST. COST in EVs is falling across the board, but some makers are further ahead on the learning curve than others. It would appear that BYD and Tesla are close on cost, and the leaders. The startups? Who knows, maybe they will go poof and their investors will be penniless. But the legacy makers are not interested in scaling sales at the current Chinese market prices. They are withdrawing... the conclusion is that at their production its too expensive to play, at least in 2022.

The survivors of the great Chinese EV price war will OWN the low cost space AND have the highest margins for the next few years while global sales soar. Their production volume will give them an even bigger lead on their rivals. A lot of money is on the line.

Meanwhile, BYD (and other chinese makers) have starting shipping volumes of BEV to the EU at low MSRP. The Chinese are coming after the German market now.

So, whence all the legacy makers?

In the US, tariffs and maybe the NTSB will keep the Chinese EVs out of the US for some time (but probably not forever). The chinese makers would also need to alter their products for US tastes and market (unless BYD decides to compete in the luxury US market?) GM and Ford will get the US market as their own sandbox to play in while they transition, even if they run a few years behind on the tech/cost curve. That plus fed bailouts (and domestic incentives like the IRA) will probably keep them afloat. This makes the IRA incentives for domestic production of EVs look quite timely as a defensive move.

In the EU, many fewer barriers exist, and costs for domestic german BEVs seems to be running high. Even Tesla has reported that its production costs at Giga-Berlin are higher than at any other plant, and are lagging production targets. China could leave a mark on the EU legacy makers, esp lower cost makers like Stellantis and VW. Probably some bailouts and tariffs will be imposed.

And then the Japanese makers look FAR less prepared to handle the Chinese challenge in super-low cost EVs. They literally tore up all their BEV plans for the next decade a few months back, saying that none of those products would be profitable at projected market prices. So they are back to square one, making paper plans for new, lower cost BEV architecture... while Tesla and BYD are shipping millions of BEVs at costs lower than Toyota currently knows how to design! No bueno Toyoda.
 
Tesla is offering a $3xxx discount on the 3 and Y to move unit’s before 2023. Teslas profit margins being much much larger than Toyotas and the direct to consumer sales will allow quicker selling off of inventory if needed and allowing greater flexibility if price wars erupt.

Toyota know exactly how teslas are being manufactured. They can reverse engineer any component they choose (for a price) but the software will more difficult.

Teslas Cyber truck was confirmed to have 1MW charging. Same as the semi. GM has missed the mark with their EV truck. Ford did it right IMO. And Tesla will out sell both combined. Toyota better have a good looking rabbit and a hat.
 
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Tesla is offering a $3xxx discount on the 3 and Y to move unit’s before 2023. Teslas profit margins being much much larger than Toyotas and the direct to consumer sales will allow quicker selling off of inventory if needed and allowing greater flexibility if price wars erupt.

Toyota know exactly how teslas are being manufactured. They can reverse engineer any component they choose (for a price) but the software will more difficult.

Teslas Cyber truck was confirmed to have 1MW charging. Same as the semi. GM has missed the mark with their EV truck. Ford did it right IMO. And Tesla will out sell both combined. Toyota better have a good looking rabbit and a hat.
I am sure that makers all do teardowns of their competitors (or have someone else do it for them). But knowing about some manufacturing tech being used in a competitor is not the same as being able to find a contractor or tool that allows you to do the same manufacturing step, nor does it tell you how they achieved a lower cost doing it, necessarily.
 
I am sure that makers all do teardowns of their competitors (or have someone else do it for them). But knowing about some manufacturing tech being used in a competitor is not the same as being able to find a contractor or tool that allows you to do the same manufacturing step, nor does it tell you how they achieved a lower cost doing it, necessarily.
I read that other manufacturers have adopted some of Teslas manufacturing innovative techniques like single-piece castings.
Other car companies are just cherry picking design cues. Changan Automobile in China has just about cloned the Model 3, albeit in a better looking package.
 
Toyota has announced a new generation Prius. It has an available AWD version and the Prime version has doubled the EV only range up to around 50 miles (TBD in real world testing). It sports about 100 more horsepower, more cargo area, 58 miles combined range, and .... (drum roll please) it looks good. I predict that this is going to be a winner for them, especially if they tune the suspension so that it's not boring and has become fun to drive. I don't think Toyota is out of the game yet. This one looks like a winner for them.

 
I read that other manufacturers have adopted some of Teslas manufacturing innovative techniques like single-piece castings.
Other car companies are just cherry picking design cues. Changan Automobile in China has just about cloned the Model 3, albeit in a better looking package.
Looks like a Model 3 crossed with a RAV4 to me.
 
Toyota has announced a new generation Prius. It has an available AWD version and the Prime version has doubled the EV only range up to around 50 miles (TBD in real world testing). It sports about 100 more horsepower, more cargo area, 58 miles combined range, and .... (drum roll please) it looks good. I predict that this is going to be a winner for them, especially if they tune the suspension so that it's not boring and has become fun to drive. I don't think Toyota is out of the game yet. This one looks like a winner for them.

That does look much better than the older models.
 
That does look much better than the older models.
Looks the the Kia EV6 from the front and the back is still Prius. Glass roof like the Tesla Y. New glass roof experience to share. We have a perforated/mesh sun shade. Driving in the cool morning 5 people in the car. Defrost on for a minute off for 5. Water stars running down the inside of the windshield. That didn’t make any Tesla or Toyota commercials. I’d it was a flat roof it would have been dripping on us.
 
Looks the the Kia EV6 from the front and the back is still Prius. Glass roof like the Tesla Y. New glass roof experience to share. We have a perforated/mesh sun shade. Driving in the cool morning 5 people in the car. Defrost on for a minute off for 5. Water stars running down the inside of the windshield. That didn’t make any Tesla or Toyota commercials. I’d it was a flat roof it would have been dripping on us.
Yes, I can see a little resemblance in front but the back looks nothing like previous Priuses. It's the first time it's gotten a horizontal tail light treatment.
 
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I didn't like the looks of the original Prius. But I did think it looked a bit futuristic. Of course the future has surpassed that look now. I do wonder how much of the aesthetic dislike is from "now" and was not present when they came on the market.

Of course it never was meant for the cocky 21 year old market.