Oil Prices Now

[ABMax24]

Even in Canada it will be hard to switch crops, we're 2.5 months out from planting season but the seed and inputs have already been bought, a few farmers might be able to, but not a significant portion.

Maybe Australia can help make up the difference when they plant later in the year.

I know it's a tough decision to make, especially given current oil prices, but it might make sense to shutdown some or all of the ethanol plants in the US. Reducing the size of the cattle herds would help too.

 

[Jan Pijpelink]

Crude oil pricing is based on (among other things):

1. Supply and demand.
2. Availability of tankers.
3. Politics in the country of origin.
4. Unrest in the country of origin. Civil war or civil unrest drives up the price.
5. Security. If the source of crude and personnel needs to be protected, like in Nigeria and Kazakhstan, the price goes up.
6. Weather. If a US refinery orders crude in July for delivery in October, the tanker crosses the Atlantic Ocean during the hurricane season. This means that the insurance company of the tanker increases the insurance premium.
7. Politics in the country of destination.
8. Crude quality.
9. Competition of OPEC suppliers vs non-OPEC suppliers.
10. And other factors.

 

[EbS-P]

Even in Canada it will be hard to switch crops, we're 2.5 months out from planting season but the seed and inputs have already been bought, a few farmers might be able to, but not a significant portion.

Maybe Australia can help make up the difference when they plant later in the year.

I know it's a tough decision to make, especially given current oil prices, but it might make sense to shutdown some or all of the ethanol plants in the US. Reducing the size of the cattle herds would help too.

The US Renewable Fuel Standard is due to be updated this year. Jason from EE has a decent probably slanted take that agrees with my perception. 2 % carbon reduction “WHO CARES!!” Increase mileage standards done. I don’t see any big changes unless the EPA started taking a more progressive position and I still think we are in baby step territory.

 

[peakbagger]

The current oil market is also reflecting payback. The US became a player on the worldwide supply market after decades of being a buyer. The US refused to play ball with OPEC and OPEC Plus and depressed oil prices below what several economies needed to buy off their populations from revolting. Venezuela got where they are now because they could not afford to buy off the poor with revenue from the low price of oil. Several of the middle eastern countries had the same problem, their budgets were set up for a higher price of oil than the market would pay as the US was screwing up the price and driving it lower. Russia was just plain greedy as they just ignore their population. Nevertheless, the US drove prices down for several years until OPEC Plus said two can play the game and started flooding the market with oil. That drove the US producers into a mode where as their contracts ran out they could not afford to keep drilling. Many firms went bankrupt and their equipment was sold off. Once the US companies get signed contracts to sell oil at a profit they will head back into the field and 18 months to 2 years from now it will start flowing in quantity. The US strategic oil reserve is for short term glitches not long term events like this. It would have to be a hundred times larger to store enough volume to deal with a moderate term loss of worldwide supply.

So now when the US is asking for help, OPEC minus Russia is going to ask for a lot of behind the scenes deals and assurances that the US will play nice in the future. The only way the US gets off that backroom dealing is to cut fossil usage to the point where US production can cover the reduced demand at a reasonable cost per barrel. The problem is Opec Plus can generally in the short term flood the market with cheap oil at cost far lower than a US producer can drill for.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I'd like to see us supplying all of our own oil. I like cheap gas, but will gladly pay more for the security of supply.

Higher prices does curtail demand, that's a given. To a certain extent, it is what it is, and we will all have to suck it up or adjust our behavior.

We will survive.

 

[EbS-P]

I think we will be seeing a large increase in vehicle cost. Back to the whole supply chain issues shortages labor cost increases. the whole idea of dealer mark up may be a thing of the past soon. The biggest unknown is if/when/how China will enter the US automobile market. Ramping up EV sales in the sext 12 months could make a considerable impact on fuel demand but it’s like less than 5-10%. US buyers want big and flashy and by the looks of the marketing it’s EV trucks. I don’t get that one bit. If you have a 1/2 ton truck to take your kids to daycare/school and soccer why not just keep it in the road and get a smaller EV sedan. Best of all worlds.

Seems like oil price is stabling for the time being.

 

[festerw]

I think we will be seeing a large increase in vehicle cost. Back to the whole supply chain issues shortages labor cost increases. the whole idea of dealer mark up may be a thing of the past soon. The biggest unknown is if/when/how China will enter the US automobile market. Ramping up EV sales in the sext 12 months could make a considerable impact on fuel demand but it’s like less than 5-10%. US buyers want big and flashy and by the looks of the marketing it’s EV trucks. I don’t get that one bit. If you have a 1/2 ton truck to take your kids to daycare/school and soccer why not just keep it in the road and get a smaller EV sedan. Best of all worlds.

Seems like oil price is stabling for the time being.

I've been looking for a little bit and it seems really hard to beat the Toyota hybrids for a cost/benefit. Well equipped Corolla/Camry/Prius is under $30k and will net you around 50mpg.

Sure you've still got maintenance but it's still easy to take a road trip and not have to plan around charging. In my case to go electric I'd need to upgrade my panel and trench to the driveway to add an easily accessible outlet.

 

[EbS-P]

I've been looking for a little bit and it seems really hard to beat the Toyota hybrids for a cost/benefit. Well equipped Corolla/Camry/Prius is under $30k and will net you around 50mpg.

Sure you've still got maintenance but it's still easy to take a road trip and not have to plan around charging. In my case to go electric I'd need to upgrade my panel and trench to the driveway to add an easily accessible outlet.

20 amp 240V is enough for my around town needs. I was able swap in a tandem single pole to create an extra slot and then use an existing 20 amp run that removed the old well pump from.. 3.8kw charging. Got a 24’ cable on my charger. 12-2 outdoor wire was much cheaper than indoor romex. Pvc Conduit is 10$ a stick.

I wil probably always have a gas car for the next 15 years or longer. I think if you only have one vehicle hybrid makes sense. Plug in hybrid even more.

When I did the math before gas went way up. My 16.6 mpg van around town cost 220$ per 1000 miles gas and oil. I calculated EV cost at 60$ per 1000 miles. Roll the dice on maintenance cost. My Honda van has been really expensive to make all the repairs.

My electric rates can and will go up but nothing like gas. Might even look into a diy solar project.

 

[festerw]

20 amp 240V is enough for my around town needs. I was able swap in a tandem single pole to create an extra slot and then use an existing 20 amp run that removed the old well pump from.. 3.8kw charging. Got a 24’ cable on my charger. 12-2 outdoor wire was much cheaper than indoor romex. Pvc Conduit is 10$ a stick.

I wil probably always have a gas car for the next 15 years or longer. I think if you only have one vehicle hybrid makes sense. Plug in hybrid even more.

When I did the math before gas went way up. My 16.6 mpg van around town cost 220$ per 1000 miles gas and oil. I calculated EV cost at 60$ per 1000 miles. Roll the dice on maintenance cost. My Honda van has been really expensive to make all the repairs.

My electric rates can and will go up but nothing like gas. Might even look into a diy solar project.

I'm on a 100amp panel that's pretty much full up, we're planning a remodel in the next few years so it'll get changed at some point. So we'll have plenty of room later if things change.

Round trip for me to work is about 50 miles, I run 7.5-10k oil changes so oil itself is pretty much negligible and with ToyotaCare the first 2 years of service are free.

With gas around $4/gal per 1000 miles I'm about $200 with the Durango, $80 with a hybrid, and $20 with electric.

 

[peakbagger]

I get around 40 to 45 miles of plug in range on my Rav 4 Prime (less in winter). I have a 100 amp panel in the garage so I just put in a new 240 volt outlet with a combined arc fault and GFI breaker feeding it. NH does not have incentives for off peak charging so I went with a dumb EVSE cord. If they change, I have an ancient X-10 system in the house and I can add a module to switch it on and off instead of putting in an expensive version. I run a surplus with solar so charging is effectively "free".

 

[SpaceBus]

I get around 40 to 45 miles of plug in range on my Rav 4 Prime (less in winter). I have a 100 amp panel in the garage so I just put in a new 240 volt outlet with a combined arc fault and GFI breaker feeding it. NH does not have incentives for off peak charging so I went with a dumb EVSE cord. If they change, I have an ancient X-10 system in the house and I can add a module to switch it on and off instead of putting in an expensive version. I run a surplus with solar so charging is effectively "free".

We could probably do 90% of our driving on the electric range of a PHEV, but nowhere to charge right now.

 

[Rusty18]

Does the electric only mode still kick off above 25 mph?

 

[peakbagger]

On the Toyota Rav4 Prime, it can run battery only mode up to highway speeds but obviously cuts the range as aerodynamics kick in. There are "range geeks" on the forums that play games to maximize electric miles. Some of them have doubled the published electric range to over 90 miles. No doubt someone driving around a rural town with minimal traffic congestion and the range goes up.

 

[Rusty18]

Well now I want one. Y’all are worse than unlicensed pharmaceutical sales rep that work on the street corners...

If gas hits $5 a gallon maybe I can talk someone into getting one.

 

[begreen]

WTI crude fell below $100 today. Think you are going to see a dramatic drop at the pump or home anytime soon?

 

[Ashful]

WTI crude fell below $100 today. Think you are going to see a dramatic drop at the pump or home anytime soon?

Should've sold my Exxon a week ago.

 

[begreen]

Should've sold my Exxon a week ago.

No worries, the oil and gas industry is making record profits now and has for the past year. Nice if you are a shareholder or CEO, not so nice if you are a consumer.

 

[woodey]

. Think you are going to see a dramatic drop at the pump or home anytime soon?

 

[vinny11950]

WTI crude fell below $100 today. Think you are going to see a dramatic drop at the pump or home anytime soon?

What's the expression? Goes up like a rocket, falls like a feather. Something like that.

 

[ABMax24]

Russia/Ukraine aside the fundamentals still haven't changed, production has been stagnant and demand is increasing. I think $90-$110 oil is where we are going to sit for the next 18 months. If things really kick off in Ukraine, or if oil shipments to the west are slowed/stopped I think $150 is easily within reach, and who knows where from there, maybe $200.

 

[vinny11950]

Russia/Ukraine aside the fundamentals still haven't changed, production has been stagnant and demand is increasing. I think $90-$110 oil is where we are going to sit for the next 18 months. If things really kick off in Ukraine, or if oil shipments to the west are slowed/stopped I think $150 is easily within reach, and who knows where from there, maybe $200.

I agree, but a lot of the movements now is speculation. Economists are now cutting back on global GDP growth estimates, so traders are trying to price that in. Then you have the likely interest rate hikes from the Fed coming up, which will probably increase the strength of the dollar which should impact oil prices. And the wildcard is Ukraine. Anything from a collapse of the Russian offensive to a nuclear strike are on the table, sadly. You would have to have balls of steel to bet on oil prices now, either way.

 

[peakbagger]

I think shale can make a buck at $70 a barrel, rigs will go back in the field and the price will drift down.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I'll take $70/barrel.

 

[ABMax24]

I agree, but a lot of the movements now is speculation. Economists are now cutting back on global GDP growth estimates, so traders are trying to price that in. Then you have the likely interest rate hikes from the Fed coming up, which will probably increase the strength of the dollar which should impact oil prices. And the wildcard is Ukraine. Anything from a collapse of the Russian offensive to a nuclear strike are on the table, sadly. You would have to have balls of steel to bet on oil prices now, either way.

There's also the reluctance for many lenders to give money to oil and gas, the environmental movement of the last decade has been very successful in that regard.

75% of my portfolio is in O&G right now in various sectors, I don't plan on moving it anytime soon.

 

[Ashful]

No worries, the oil and gas industry is making record profits now and has for the past year. Nice if you are a shareholder or CEO, not so nice if you are a consumer.

Then become a shareholder! $81.88 full shares, at closing today. It was $55 just 6 months ago.