Oil Prices Now

[woodgeek]

While we see gas prices every day, transportation doesn’t use all the hydrocarbons. Plastics fertilizer ect. The price increases are going to be felt in many areas. Food prices are going to keep going up. Anyone looked at the price of wheat and soybeans? On the farm we burned 10,000 gallons of off road diesel in 3-4 weeks around summer harvest. Tracotor 300+ gallons a day. Combines 250 each. Fertilizer if you can find it is really high.

Correction: Oil is NOT used to make fertilizer. Natural gas and air are used to make fertilizer. CH4 to make Hydrogen, plus N2 to make Ammonia.

Oil producing countries usually have more nat gas than they know what to do with... so they use the cheap gas to make fertilizer, which is easier to store and ship.

Fertilizer prices are going up bc the world is embargoing Russian fertilizer, not bc oil prices are going up.

As with Russian oil, some countries will be buying the Russian fertilizer at a steep discount.

 

[woodgeek]

I've been looking for a little bit and it seems really hard to beat the Toyota hybrids for a cost/benefit. Well equipped Corolla/Camry/Prius is under $30k and will net you around 50mpg.

Sure you've still got maintenance but it's still easy to take a road trip and not have to plan around charging. In my case to go electric I'd need to upgrade my panel and trench to the driveway to add an easily accessible outlet.

My used volt ($15k) has a 35+ mile electric range, and gets 40 mpg highway at 70 mph. Since it covers my commute and shopping on electric, I am averaging over 70 mpg overall, and buy gas every couple months to fill the 8 gallon tank.

 

[mcdougy]

F150 wasn't quite empty (130litres)

 

[Ashful]

Fertilizer prices are going up bc the world is embargoing Russian fertilizer, not bc oil prices are going up.

Fertilizer with prodiamine has gone up 30% (wholesale prices) in the last two weeks, if you can even manage to get your hands on the stuff. I’ve been waiting 10 days for my wholesaler to spare me a pallet, and am in fact sitting at the loading yard waiting for a forklift to be loaded, as I type this.

 

[vinny11950]

Permian oil output forecast to hit record high in April -EIA

Oil output in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is due to rise 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.208 million bpd in April, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Monday.

www.reuters.com

 

[SpaceBus]

Permian oil output forecast to hit record high in April -EIA

Oil output in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is due to rise 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.208 million bpd in April, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report on Monday.

www.reuters.com

70,000 barrels is hardly noteworthy compared to the 5.2 million bpd they were already producing...

 

[Ashful]

Fertilizer with prodiamine has gone up 30% (wholesale prices) in the last two weeks, if you can even manage to get your hands on the stuff. I’ve been waiting 10 days for my wholesaler to spare me a pallet, and am in fact sitting at the loading yard waiting for a forklift to be loaded, as I type this.

Quoting myself, because I gave some inaccurate information. The fertilizer is indeed up 30% from the prices I paid last season. But it is not as much due to Russia and the last month's excitement, as I had assumed. I spoke with the account manager who informed me the prices have actually crept up gradually, over this entire year. We saw it in seed last year, this year it's fertilizer.

The mess in the near-east won't help matters at all, but it can't be blamed for the fertilizer prices we are seeing today... yet.

 

[woodey]

Fertilizer with prodiamine has gone up 30% (wholesale prices) in the last two weeks, if you can even manage to get your hands on the stuff. I’ve been waiting 10 days for my wholesaler to spare me a pallet, and am in fact sitting at the loading yard waiting for a forklift to be loaded, as I type this.

I assume that you’re not sitting there with your engine idling.😆

 

[begreen]

Oil suffers 'spectacular' collapse, enters bear market just 5 days after settling at nearly 14-year highs

U.S. and global benchmark crude oil entered a bear market on Tuesday, just five trading days after they settled at their highest prices since 2008.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[mcdougy]

Here, according to a reputable farmer I do business with, inputs this year are up 130% compared to last year. He was happy that he locked his fertilizer price in November/December at 100% increase. It's risen another 30% since then.

 

[vinny11950]

Big parts of China are back under Covid lockdowns. Their vaccines aren't as good as first thought. I think this will tame oil demand some.

At the same time, this will probably aggravate supply issues here in the US, causing more shortages and inflation pressure. On the bright side, it will make US manufacturing more appealing, so more US jobs. That's one way to bring jobs back to the US.

Also, both Iran and Venezuela have released western prisoners the past few weeks, a precursor, I would assume, to normalized relations with these countries so they can sell more oil in the world market.

 

[stoveliker]

I just emailed with someone in Xi'an. In many regions there are no strict lock downs. "Big parts" seems not to be correct.

The effect on oil may be correct though as it's Shenzhen (big fraction of GDP achieved there). Shanghai is close to locking down, and other coastal areas are at risk. But the majority of the country seems to be not affected.

 

[EbS-P]

Price is back to over 100$. Everyone in the know made some money off the spike. Supply will improve some. We may see gas tax holidays but that’s not a solution. that lost revenue will need to be accounted for some how. Current prices will boost EV sales but have you need one on car lot? Preorders are stopped on all most Ford EVs. Not sure about Kia/Hyundai right now. Tesla last I heard is about 6 months to delivery (unless you want plaid or performance). Oh and prices went up.
I don’t see the fasten seatbelt sign turning off any time soon.

 

[begreen]

My used volt ($15k) has a 35+ mile electric range, and gets 40 mpg highway at 70 mph. Since it covers my commute and shopping on electric, I am averaging over 70 mpg overall, and buy gas every couple months to fill the 8 gallon tank.

We love our Gen 2 Volt. Due to market demand, it's worth more now than when we bought it 2+ yrs ago. Winter electric range is 45mi and summer is 65 mi. That covers 90% of our driving. Overall mileage 132 mpg. During the pandemic, we had to run the car on gas once because the car was warning us the fuel was over 6 months old. Even in ICE mode, it gets 45-50 mpg. Wish they had leveraged this design to other vehicles.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I think they are. The Maverick base model is hybrid and gets 42mpg city.

 

[SpaceBus]

I paid $5.10/gal for diesel this morning to fill up for tomorrow. We have to pick up my MIL from the airport and the roads are too busted up to drive my wife's car. At least the dually averages 25+ MPG on these country back roads with no stops.

 

[peakbagger]

I paid $5.10/gal for diesel this morning to fill up for tomorrow. We have to pick up my MIL from the airport and the roads are too busted up to drive my wife's car. At least the dually averages 25+ MPG on these country back roads with no stops.

Mud season in Downeast Maine, few BEVs would survive long. "Bert and I" had some routines about mud season in Maine.

In order to get the range and fuel economy, the manufacturers usually go with low ground clearance and low profile tires. Both do not do well with soft roadbeds and enormous potholes. That is one of the reasons I waited for the Rav 4 Prime, its got reasonable ground clearance and slightly heavier suspension. It did have low profile tires with aluminum rims but when I went for my winter tires I went for smaller steel rims and slightly higher tire to get some pothole tolerance. They will stay on long past the snow until the back roads dry up. I find steel rims seem to survive pot holes better than aluminum. Hopefully the Ford Lightning will still have areal suspension but my guess is most the early production will never go on a dirt road.

Luckily the Unimogs do not get driven far so 10 MPG is not as painful.

 

[SpaceBus]

Mud season in Downeast Maine, few BEVs would survive long. "Bert and I" had some routines about mud season in Maine.

In order to get the range and fuel economy, the manufacturers usually go with low ground clearance and low profile tires. Both do not do well with soft roadbeds and enormous potholes. That is one of the reasons I waited for the Rav 4 Prime, its got reasonable ground clearance and slightly heavier suspension. It did have low profile tires with aluminum rims but when I went for my winter tires I went for smaller steel rims and slightly higher tire to get some pothole tolerance. They will stay on long past the snow until the back roads dry up. I find steel rims seem to survive pot holes better than aluminum. Hopefully the Ford Lightning will still have areal suspension but my guess is most the early production will never go on a dirt road.

Luckily the Unimogs do not get driven far so 10 MPG is not as painful.

The first thing I did when we moved here was remove the fancy forged 17" aluminum wheels from my wife's car in favor of 15" cast aluminum wheels that cost much less. Had to get a specific wheel to fit 15" barrels around the brakes and steering components on her Abarth, otherwise the would be steel for winter. I have a set for winter and summer, but the next winter tires will definite be studded. I just run MT's on the factory 17" for my truck year round, and I don't think smaller dually wheels will clear the brakes. When we finish our garage/shop I'm hoping there will be something like a Subaru Crosstrek or Outback with a BEV drivetrain. Ideally I would put a long travel rally suspension on what we get, but there aren't many cars with that kind of aftermarket.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I was driving a Tacoma today and was sinking in the mud pretty bad. Looked like I was a kid spinning in the mud and I never went past 5mph or lost traction. The ground is just soft!

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I just run MT's on the factory 17" for my truck year round, and I don't think smaller dually wheels will clear the brakes..

Mickey Thompsons? Sweeeeeet! It must really hook up!

 

[EbS-P]

Mud season in Downeast Maine, few BEVs would survive long. "Bert and I" had some routines about mud season in Maine.

In order to get the range and fuel economy, the manufacturers usually go with low ground clearance and low profile tires. Both do not do well with soft roadbeds and enormous potholes. That is one of the reasons I waited for the Rav 4 Prime, its got reasonable ground clearance and slightly heavier suspension. It did have low profile tires with aluminum rims but when I went for my winter tires I went for smaller steel rims and slightly higher tire to get some pothole tolerance. They will stay on long past the snow until the back roads dry up. I find steel rims seem to survive pot holes better than aluminum. Hopefully the Ford Lightning will still have areal suspension but my guess is most the early production will never go on a dirt road.

Luckily the Unimogs do not get driven far so 10 MPG is not as painful.

100 kWh battery pack is over 1000#. My guess is that it rides better than an empty regular F150. But I wonder what suspension changes will be. Big battery will mean stronger suspension.

One spring morning I walked out to our 5-7 year old Sentra. It was sitting kinda funny. Got in and something’s was rubbing. Broken front strut spring. Broke while parked. Ahh Maine roads. Don’t miss them.

The first thing I did when we moved here was remove the fancy forged 17" aluminum wheels from my wife's car in favor of 15" cast aluminum wheels that cost much less. Had to get a specific wheel to fit 15" barrels around the brakes and steering components on her Abarth, otherwise the would be steel for winter. I have a set for winter and summer, but the next winter tires will definite be studded. I just run MT's on the factory 17" for my truck year round, and I don't think smaller dually wheels will clear the brakes. When we finish our garage/shop I'm hoping there will be something like a Subaru Crosstrek or Outback with a BEV drivetrain. Ideally I would put a long travel rally suspension on what we get, but there aren't many cars with that kind of aftermarket.

Maine eats cars…. Doubtful long travel parts will take off for BEV unless an electric rally league takes off. That would be fun. But think of how much extra protection for the batteries they would need.

 

[peakbagger]

There was much publicized Tesla fire where a Tesla was out on the ice on Lake Champlain in winter and it burnt down to the ice. Luckily after it burned up they got the mess cleaned up before the ice melted. The owner reportedly had been beating on it elsewhere and knocked components lose to eventually cause the burn.

On a completely different note I was on an interesting conversation the other day with a major battery supplier for grid support (,5 to 5 MWhrs), they and other companies are rushing to switch to Lithium phosphate batteries away from the NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt) chemistry as quick as they can as LiPo batteries do not go into cascade failure. I still think NMC still has the best power density but NMCs are becoming a major liability along with strategic chemical sourcing issues.

 

[EbS-P]

There was much publicized Tesla fire where a Tesla was out on the ice on Lake Champlain in winter and it burnt down to the ice. Luckily after it burned up they got the mess cleaned up before the ice melted. The owner reportedly had been beating on it elsewhere and knocked components lose to eventually cause the burn.

On a completely different note I was on an interesting conversation the other day with a major battery supplier for grid support (,5 to 5 MWhrs), they and other companies are rushing to switch to Lithium phosphate batteries away from the NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt) chemistry as quick as they can as LiPo batteries do not go into cascade failure. I still think NMC still has the best power density but NMCs are becoming a major liability along with strategic chemical sourcing issues.

I read it was fraud, trying to cover his tracks. Either way fire is real but I hope survival time is longer in a BEV fire than a an ICEV. Musk made some statements sometime somewhere about fire risk I found believable.

The mystery of a Tesla found destroyed on a frozen lake is solved, and it's a wild story

The mystery of how a Tesla Model X was found burnt to almost nothing on a frozen lake in Vermont...

electrek.co

 

[begreen]

I think they are. The Maverick base model is hybrid and gets 42mpg city.

Well, that's a Ford, the Volt is a Chevy. The Maverick is only a traditional hybrid, the electric and gas engines are always working together. The gas engine is not supplementary. EV range is minimal, like the regular Prius.

 

[woodgeek]

There was much publicized Tesla fire where a Tesla was out on the ice on Lake Champlain in winter and it burnt down to the ice. Luckily after it burned up they got the mess cleaned up before the ice melted. The owner reportedly had been beating on it elsewhere and knocked components lose to eventually cause the burn.

On a completely different note I was on an interesting conversation the other day with a major battery supplier for grid support (,5 to 5 MWhrs), they and other companies are rushing to switch to Lithium phosphate batteries away from the NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt) chemistry as quick as they can as LiPo batteries do not go into cascade failure. I still think NMC still has the best power density but NMCs are becoming a major liability along with strategic chemical sourcing issues.

I think most of the Chinese EVs on the market use LiPo or another non-NMC chemistry. This keeps them a little cheaper and safer, but does reduce their range. For rich urban dwellers in China, not an issue.

While lithium, a uniquely small ion able to intercalate into other compounds is a real secret sauce to getting high charge density (coulombs per volume) and fast charge discharge (bc small ions diffuse faster), the range of electrode compounds you can run it with is vast. Saying 'lithium batteries' is kinda like saying 'electronic semiconductors', there are zillions of semiconductors that use electrons and holes as carriers, all unique. It is hardly surprising that optimizing for strategic minerals, mass density, cost per kWh or cycle life, etc will end up using different 'lithium' chemistries. And in each the mass fraction of lithium will come in at a few percent of the total.