Ukraine and Russia

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webbie said:
Not looking to get into a political back and forth here, but just an observation that this could be a much bigger deal than anything we've dealt with in many decades. We are talking about two nuclear armed countries and forces (Putin and the Russian oligarchs) who will likely stop at nothing to assure that Ukraine remains part of their sphere.

I suspect BG here know more (visited there?), but this should be on the radar of those who care about foreign affairs and long-term tendencies toward democracy and freedom.

As I commented to my Dad in FL last week, the biggest PR job ever done was "the cold war is over"...not to say we should start up that craziness again, but it would be foolish not to see that Russia seems to most always be on the "other" side of most issues (Iran/Syria, etc. etc.) than we do.

I hope it settles down. Even if the result is less than perfect.
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The sad part is that it isn't going to settle down until Putin gets what he wants.
 
He just asked and received permission from the Russian parliament to militarily take over the Crimea. Folks in Poland and the Baltics are more than a little concerned.
 
iceguy4 said:
After watching the news I became more aware things were escalating... doesn't look good does it..?
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Russia just approved the use of military force there. That pretty much says it all.

Let's game it out.......

Some chit happens. The UN and NATO seek to avoid total conflict, so they suggest a cease fire.

Ukraine gets broken up into a sphere for Russia and one for the Ukraine.

Is that feasible?
 
Retired Guy said:
I'm wondering how many millions Putin will exterminate rebuilding the empire.
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I don't think it will come to that. Then again, I'm an optimist...

I guess it all works in all directions. We can't claim the "we never did stuff like that" attitude now, and Putin sure can't claim it. With MAD, it doesn't matter whether we spend 10X as much as Putin on the military. He has more than enough to do what he wants.

Well, I guess the only thing to do is watch. As with everything else, we all have shifting opinions and very little input into what actually goes down. The world is a big place now and highly developed...different than the old days.
 
not much we can do. just like other countries watching us interfere in the Southern Hemisphere for years so too will Russia flex its muscle and meddle with its neighbors to advance and protect their interests.

the Chinese will do it too in Asia. let them have it because there is nothing we can do about it.

now if a nuke goes off or goes missing, well then we have a problem. but i doubt Putin will be that careless. he is a control freak and will surely secure those first if he didn't control them already.

it is sad for the people caught up in the turmoil of the ethnic fighting.
 
webbie said:
Russia just approved the use of military force there. That pretty much says it all.

Let's game it out.......

Some chit happens. The UN and NATO seek to avoid total conflict, so they suggest a cease fire.

Ukraine gets broken up into a sphere for Russia and one for the Ukraine.

Is that feasible?
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The Crimea was Russian up until when Khrushev "gave" it to Ukraine. This is about the Russian Fleet and the strategic purpose of their warm water port. All your base are belong to us. If they go beyond the Crimea then the western world has a situation on hand that is much more serious.

Still, there's not much the US can do given our recent transgressions in Iraq. We set a policy of "we'll do what we want" and now have been checkmated after our last move. All we can do is reassure neighbors of our support. Georgia in particular is very seriously concerned and with good reason.
 
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Yeah Vlad, you can't invade a soverign country. Oh wait...
 
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I see this going the route of Syria......we threaten and draw lines in the sand, but nothing is done.

In the end Russia will get its way, and it will be a no issue for us.
 
I read an op-ed piece somewhere that if revolution/conflict occurs in Ukraine it may spread to other republics on the border of Russia that have significant ethnic disparities in their populations.
 
Hopefully this blows over... for some reason current events have me checking the batteries in my geiger counter.


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Retired Guy said:
There were quite a few candidates that understood what Putin had in mind.
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If I were Putin, I'd be pretty pissed at all the Republicans giving Obama credit for the invasion of Ukraine.

Andy Borowitz
 
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I assume the Budapest Memorandum will be disregarded here...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html

A treaty signed in 1994 by the US and Britain could pull both countries into a war to protect Ukraine if President Putin's troops cross into the country.
Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma – the then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine - agreed to the The Budapest Memorandum as part of the denuclearization of former Soviet republics after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Technically it means that if Russia has invaded Ukraine then it would be difficult for the US and Britain to avoid going to war.
 
Treacherous said:
I assume the Budapest Memorandum will be disregarded here...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html

A treaty signed in 1994 by the US and Britain could pull both countries into a war to protect Ukraine if President Putin's troops cross into the country.
Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma – the then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine - agreed to the The Budapest Memorandum as part of the denuclearization of former Soviet republics after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Technically it means that if Russia has invaded Ukraine then it would be difficult for the US and Britain to avoid going to war.
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practically, me thinks they will just forget about this treaty or find some way around it.

whether Ukraine is invaded by Russia or not is not a core interest to the U.S.

it makes Poland and Germany nervous but that is what NATO is for.

the mistake would be for the U.S. to make more out of this than it needs to be. this is the biggest dog in that part of the world flexing its muscle. let it due that and let it control its Sphere of Influence.

it is just another Neo-Con fantasy to believe otherwise.
 
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