Winter 2024

[Ashful]

It was warm here yesterday afternoon, as well. If you said mid-40's or higher, I'd believe it, although I didn't check myself. We had enough snow that everything is still covered, despite the warm weather, though. Today is also heading above freezing, but wicked windy, and trees are snapping under the added snow load, with the wind.

 

[ABMax24]

We've had the mildest winter I can remember, almost no precipitation, outside of one freak rain storm in January and anytime we get snow it almost immediately melts.

I'm an avid snowmobiler, and I haven't even thought about starting mine yet, and probably won't now this year. The mountains normally always have snow, but not enough this year. The first 10 miles of the trail in is just gravel, last 15 miles is ice. I've made it out every year for the last 18 years, but the weather is going to break that streak this year.

We have no appreciable mountain snowpack thus far, and this follows one of the driest summers on record and the most intense forest fire season on record. Looking like stream flows will be at all time lows, water use restrictions will likely last a significant portion of the summer for some communities, and hydro dams will have to curtail output and be supplemented by fossil generation.

We need a 3ft dump of March snow in the worst way, or some very heavy spring rains that never seem to come anymore.

 

[fbelec]

yes that storm that was supposed to happen this past tuesday was a flop. we were on a 9 to 12+ forcast monday night and was supposed to start about 4 am it started snowing here about 7am and right now there is a 1 inch of snow coving the lawn nothing on the street or walkway. they screwed it up again. i used to plow commercially from 2009 to 2015 when i quit 2015 i had to get up on the roof and shovel it off. it was deep enough that it was falling into my pockets on my pants but now nothing. which is good in the sense that i don't have to get on the roof again but back in 2015 we had 3 three foot storms about every 3 to 4 days i had enough and quit. now i'm glad that i don't have equipment to sell off.

 

[Ashful]

we were on a 9 to 12+ forcast monday night and was supposed to start about 4 am it started snowing here about 7am and right now there is a 1 inch of snow coving the lawn nothing on the street or walkway. they screwed it up again.

Are you sure they "screwed up"? I'm becoming more and more convinced that the primary goal of weather forecasts is to sell advertising to eyeballs, and not predict the weather. I'm pretty certain advertised forecasts were about 400x more accurate 20 years ago, than today.

 

[stoveliker]

I think they did not screw up in any way.
Why? If you *read* the forecast, they said already 3 days in advance that this would be a relatively narrow band where quite some snow would fall - and that how far N/S it would go was still in flux.

So, they (NWS) gave the proper "safety margins" of their forecast.
Moreover, forecasts are probabilities (think hurricane cone), not certainties.

It went a bit farther South than they initially thought was most likely (emphasis on "most likely").

People have a hard time understanding probabilities ("90% chance of rain and it was all dry here" ...).

And yes, *tv* weather items are meant to get eyeballs for advertising, so they dramatize everything into a [whatever weather phenomenon]-mageddon hype.

Just read the official, dry, bare bones forecasts. The NWS is good at providing those. Maybe others are too.

(For hurricane forecasts I always go to the tropicaltidbits youtube channel; very dry, but very informational/educational.)

 

[EbS-P]

I think they did not screw up in any way.
Why? If you *read* the forecast, they said already 3 days in advance that this would be a relatively narrow band where quite some snow would fall - and that how far N/S it would go was still in flux.

So, they (NWS) gave the proper "safety margins" of their forecast.
Moreover, forecasts are probabilities (think hurricane cone), not certainties.

It went a bit farther South than they initially thought was most likely (emphasis on "most likely").

People have a hard time understanding probabilities ("90% chance of rain and it was all dry here" ...).

And yes, *tv* weather items are meant to get eyeballs for advertising, so they dramatize everything into a [whatever weather phenomenon]-mageddon hype.

Just read the official, dry, bare bones forecasts. The NWS is good at providing those. Maybe others are too.

(For hurricane forecasts I always go to the tropicaltidbits youtube channel; very dry, but very informational/educational.)

I still don’t understand why TV “weathermen” still have jobs in this internet age. No private entity could ever compete with the government when it comes to forecast modeling from just a computer perspective.

The forecasts have improved significantly in the last 10 years. Snow accumulation is still hard to predict as 2 degrees and a different of 2000 feet can make a very large impact snow vs rain.

Anyway after this weekend I’m calling enter over for SE NC. We might get a frost Saturday. Flowers are up here. Cold enough nighttime lows to light the stove if we are home in the morning but temps by noon time warm enough to run the heatpump.

 

[mellow]

I am loving this weather, no snow here so far, will see what we get this weekend as they are calling for 1-2".

It has been great being able to play pickleball out on the courts even in 32 degree weather last night, just gotta keep moving.

 

[stoveliker]

Very nice here the last two days; sunny, crisp around freezing during th day (initially a bit windy).
But the solar panels are not doing much; two rows on each half of the roof. The top row is still half covered with snow, and the covering layer is too opaque, so even those panels don't do much. 0.3 kWh per day produced...

Too high to get it off; snow rakes are up to 20 ft I see, and the panels are on the second story, and the home is on a "hill" (yard sloping away), leading to me needing 40 ft or so to rake any snow off. (And no, I'm not going on a ladder up there, with snow, and little space to stand at the edges even if there is no snow...)

 

[mellow]

Too high to get it off; snow rakes are up to 20 ft I see, and the panels are on the second story, and the home is on a "hill" (yard sloping away), leading to me needing 40 ft or so to rake any snow off. (And no, I'm not going on a ladder up there, with snow, and little space to stand at the edges even if there is no snow...)

Got a drone sitting around?

 

[stoveliker]

Too late; the bottom 2" of what was initially 6" is now ice. It was not as powdery anyway, but thick wet snow to start with.

And the one I have is a bit too small for 20 panels. But nice idea indeed.

 

[Ashful]

Anyway after this weekend I’m calling enter over for SE NC. We might get a frost Saturday. Flowers are up here. Cold enough nighttime lows to light the stove if we are home in the morning but temps by noon time warm enough to run the heatpump.

It was 19F at the school bus stop this morning, and I think will be similar tomorrow. We're not exactly Fairbanks Alaska, but then again... we might be colder than them, this year!

 

[EbS-P]

It was 19F at the school bus stop this morning, and I think will be similar tomorrow. We're not exactly Fairbanks Alaska, but then again... we might be colder than them, this year!

They lost multiple roofs this year to excessive snow load. Probably not the best comparison.

 

[Ashful]

They lost multiple roofs this year to excessive snow load. Probably not the best comparison.

Wow. Somehow I thought they'd been also caught up in the "atmospheric river" that was bringing such warm weather to the rest of the west coast. But I'd believe "warm" for Fairbanks can still bring plenty of snow and sub-freezing temperatures, when they're used to seeing -40F nights in winter.

This winter has been much warmer than average here, but we have had a few cold spells. Last winter was worse, total lack of any precipitation or cold weather.

 

[stoveliker]

Another 3.5" on top of the icy mess that was left of the previous 5". My solar panels won't produce anytime soon.given that there will be thawing later today but there is an ice dam at the bottom of the panels (so any new stuff won't slide off), and tonight will be 20 F so any wet stuff will get frozen solid...

 

[DonTee]

We got about 6” here over the last couple days. Next week there are highs in the 30’s and 40’s. Maybe that will take care of some of it.

Before this last snowfall almost all of the old snow had melted. Just the pile from the roof shedding was left. We have a metal roof and when it unloads it can be pretty dramatic

 

[EbS-P]

Another 3.5" on top of the icy mess that was left of the previous 5". My solar panels won't produce anytime soon.given that there will be thawing later today but there is an ice dam at the bottom of the panels (so any new stuff won't slide off), and tonight will be 20 F so any wet stuff will get frozen solid...

I saw somewhere they were integrating solar panels (for thermal collection) and heatpumps. No reason that that system could not be used to melt snow and ice. I wonder how the cost vs production would work out during those times.

 

[joop]

50%chance of a cloudy day 50% chance of a sunny day. 50% chance of wind coming from somewere 1 to 80 mph.i'm practicing to be a weather person .see and hr doesn't have to worry i'm already trained

 

[stoveliker]

I saw somewhere they were integrating solar panels (for thermal collection) and heatpumps. No reason that that system could not be used to melt snow and ice. I wonder how the cost vs production would work out during those times.

That's a nice idea.
Cooling the pv panels in summer and being able to warm them up in summer.

There are panel heating systems. Even the kWhs spent on that would be worth it; I missed out on a few crisp and bright days.

On the other hand, missing 60 kWhs made is a small cost, likely far too little to justify an electric heating system (in my climate).

 

[fbelec]

that forcast for 9 to 12+ was the night before. the next day while it was happening they down graded it to 1to 3 inches. we had 1 inch on the deck and grass. i have more confidence in the national guys than the local people. the national guys have the ads but are better forcasters than the local guys with no ads

 

[mellow]

You got more than we ended up with, barely a dusting on the ground. Ended up being in the high 30's. I am OK with not having to touch the snow blower in the shed, it can stay there for all I care.

 

[joop]

sad excuse for a winter,but i'll take it

 

[Ashful]

sad excuse for a winter,but i'll take it

Our November was colder than average, then December and January were stupid-warm. But February has been remarkably normal, here.

 

[joop]

dropping to -17 tonight, thursday +5 and going up with rain

 

[joop]

i know it's nuts

 

[fbelec]

you got to look at the snow blower as a insurance plan that gets no snow i think i used my snow blower 2 times a years for the past 3 years. i bought a ariens 3 years ago now and last year just used it once for a short time so didn't even change the clean and see thru oil