Massachusetts passes sweeping climate law

[stoveliker]

I was surprised by that number of 25%, but I get the same. (Since I googled, I thought to not let that go to waste).

If I do the math using google data, I get this:
-we use 135 billion gallons of gasoline a year in the US (www.eia.gov)
-a gallon of gasoline is 120000 BTU
-that equates to 135E9 * 120E3 = 1.6E16 BTUs in energy from gasoline.
-Using 3412 BTU for a kWh, this equates to 4.7E12kWh.

Googling the total amount of kWhs that the US uses in electricity per year as
3.9E12 kWh. (United Nations statistics division, per google).

That is indeed about 21%.

Adding 25% load to a grid that sometimes already has capacity issues indeed depends a lot on the timing of when that's added. Ideally it'll fill the valleys in the variable load curve during a 24 hr period.

I wonder how much the people will listen to "pls charge at night only", because if they don't, there'll be much more brown-outs.

 

[SpaceBus]

I was surprised by that number of 25%, but I get the same. (Since I googled, I thought to not let that go to waste).

If I do the math using google data, I get this:
-we use 135 billion gallons of gasoline a year in the US (www.eia.gov)
-a gallon of gasoline is 120000 BTU
-that equates to 135E9 * 120E3 = 1.6E16 BTUs in energy from gasoline.
-Using 3412 BTU for a kWh, this equates to 4.7E12kWh.

Googling the total amount of kWhs that the US uses in electricity per year as
3.9E12 kWh. (United Nations statistics division, per google).

That is indeed about 21%.

Adding 25% load to a grid that sometimes already has capacity issues indeed depends a lot on the timing of when that's added. Ideally it'll fill the valleys in the variable load curve during a 24 hr period.

I wonder how much the people will listen to "pls charge at night only", because if they don't, there'll be much more brown-outs.

Most people are at work all day, so I don't think it will be a big ask.

 

[stoveliker]

The largest load on the grid is between 4-9 pm (at least in warmer climates), precisely when people come home from work with an empty battery...

 

[Ashful]

Adding 25% load to a grid that sometimes already has capacity issues indeed depends a lot on the timing of when that's added.

Let's also remember that the average age of a vehicle on America's roads was 11 years, before the pandemic. I fully expect the new stat to be noticeably higher, based on the number of people who have transitioned away from a daily commute, in various forms.

In any case, that means that even if 100% of new vehicle sales were EV's (they're not... by a long shot), it will be at least years to see a 50% change in that 25% load... or 12.5%. Plenty of time to adjust to any new demand, as it develops.

 

[Ashful]

The largest load on the grid is between 4-9 pm (at least in warmer climates), precisely when people come home from work with an empty battery...

I think that programming a charger to kick on at 2am is a pretty low technical bar for auto manufacturers to leap. Heck, even my grandparents had timers on their lights and sprinklers, circa WW2.

 

[peakbagger]

The local utility has told our town that there is 2 million in local distribution upgrades before a supercharger station could be installed. Our town has 3 run of the river hydro electric dams and the region is a net renewable producer (so much that we can not export it.

 

[stoveliker]

I think that programming a charger to kick on at 2am is a pretty low technical bar for auto manufacturers to leap. Heck, even my grandparents had timers on their lights and sprinklers, circa WW2.

And yet that doesn't seem to be used consistently as of now, despite being technically easy. (See CA.)
It would make sense any day to charge after midnight, even when it's not needed as last week in CA. But evidently that's not how people are operating.

 

[woodgeek]

I was surprised by that number of 25%, but I get the same. (Since I googled, I thought to not let that go to waste).

If I do the math using google data, I get this:
-we use 135 billion gallons of gasoline a year in the US (www.eia.gov)
-a gallon of gasoline is 120000 BTU
-that equates to 135E9 * 120E3 = 1.6E16 BTUs in energy from gasoline.
-Using 3412 BTU for a kWh, this equates to 4.7E12kWh.

Googling the total amount of kWhs that the US uses in electricity per year as
3.9E12 kWh. (United Nations statistics division, per google).

That is indeed about 21%.

Adding 25% load to a grid that sometimes already has capacity issues indeed depends a lot on the timing of when that's added. Ideally it'll fill the valleys in the variable load curve during a 24 hr period.

I wonder how much the people will listen to "pls charge at night only", because if they don't, there'll be much more brown-outs.

You forgot that EV drive trains are 3X as efficient (80% versus 20-25%), so your numbers imply 5-6%. You are comparing primary energy, not motive energy.

What's the issue... the 25% figure is global, not US. My guess is the US grid is higher kWh per capita, relative to our gasoline usage, than the global figure.

 

[woodgeek]

I think that programming a charger to kick on at 2am is a pretty low technical bar for auto manufacturers to leap. Heck, even my grandparents had timers on their lights and sprinklers, circa WW2.

Dudes, most EVs already have this. The 'timer' in my car works back from when I want it to be done, and is geofenced to my garage.

 

[begreen]

Yes, both the Gen 1 and Gen 2 Volts have this feature.

 

[stoveliker]

I'd be surprised by that; the US drives sooooo much, as compared to most of the worlds population.



What this means is that the US uses even more kWhs per Capita. And that is true, if I compare with households in the old country in Europe.


Regarding the timer, evidently people are not using this to charge, see CAs request last week. That may be a human-machine interaction issue (is it accessible, easy, etc.)

 

[begreen]

Regarding the timer, evidently people are not using this to charge, see CAs request last week. That may be a human-machine interaction issue (is it accessible, easy, etc.)

Yes, it probably is a lack of reading the manual. Common issue these days. Chevy has made it pretty easy.

 

[begreen]

I'd be surprised by that; the US drives sooooo much, as compared to most of the worlds population.

We've had generations of promotion for the open road. The US is way behind the world in building high-speed rail which could carry a lot of people instead of cars. I know we'd use it to visit Vancouver or Portland.

 

[FramerJ]

The operative word is "commonly deployed". Common construction by many spec contractors has lots of flaws including inadequate insulation, poor sealing, cheap windows, cheap ZC fireplaces, etc. Add a cheap heat pump system to this and yes, you have a poor setup. Just as poor-performing HP units should not be used, so shouldn't these construction practices.

Yep mostly cheap features are used in new homes and yet the cost of a house keeps going up. What will installing (or mandating that they are to be installed by code) items such as geothermal heat pumps, rooftop solar, open cell foam insulation, good windows, ERVs, etc. do to the cost? Most people just want granite countertops, huge walk-in closets, huge showers w multiple heads and 3 car garages and still park their 60K car outside. One thing I don't see mentioned very much is the SIZE of the houses we are trying to heat and cool. Maybe that's part of the problem too.

 

[stoveliker]

Size: yes, very much so.

 

[woodgeek]

The US also has far more square footage of retail space per capita than any other country, which is a huge power hog.

 

[woodgeek]

Regarding the timer, evidently people are not using this to charge, see CAs request last week. That may be a human-machine interaction issue (is it accessible, easy, etc.)

The utility request is hardly evidence. CA has widely used TOU discounts and high retail costs per kWh. The EV fora talk about TOU charging extensively.

 

[woodgeek]

Yep mostly cheap features are used in new homes and yet the cost of a house keeps going up. What will installing (or mandating that they are to be installed by code) items such as geothermal heat pumps, rooftop solar, open cell foam insulation, good windows, ERVs, etc. do to the cost?

Nearly all of the energy codes and efficient appliance mandates are tested against a lower total cost of ownership basis, on a reasonable time horizon.

 

[FramerJ]

Nearly all of the energy codes and efficient appliance mandates are tested against a lower total cost of ownership basis, on a reasonable time horizon.

You are way, way more intelligent then I am so I tend to believe (or try to understand) what you are saying. I just know that down on the micro level, if the city of Kansas City were to adopt an energy code that requires all exterior walls are to be 2x6, not the usual 2x4, me being a framing carpenter, I will be passing the cost of extra labor onto the builder. The builder will then pass that cost, along with the additional material costs onto the buyer. Also, FWIW, there is a huuuuge cost difference between builder grade windows (that meet the minimum energy star requirements) and actual energy efficient windows. Somebody has to pay for these things.

Im not saying that I am against these things, far from it. I would love to have a geothermal heat pump for instance-- I would just never get the ROI. I want to be energy efficient and I think most people do, but I also need to be financially efficient.

 

[stoveliker]

The utility request is hardly evidence. CA has widely used TOU discounts and high retail costs per kWh. The EV fora talk about TOU charging extensively.

And yet they had to ask. (They could simply have jacked up the price when using tou billing...)

 

[SpaceBus]

I'm also betting the utilities put out the message preemptively, before there was an issue. Now people will probably just get into the habit of charging the car while they sleep. Especially if there is a monetary incentive.

 

[begreen]

Size: yes, very much so.

And a lot of waste space in the form of cathedral ceilings and along with them excess glazing.

 

[Ashful]

Nearly all of the energy codes and efficient appliance mandates are tested against a lower total cost of ownership basis, on a reasonable time horizon.

As I was noticing my three under-counter garage refrigerators are starting to cycle more frequently (all three installed new ca.2015), I was thinking about this, with regard more to total environmental impact... if such a thing could be easily quantified. It's not unrelated to this thread, as by mandating reductions in the amount of refrigerant used, they have:

1. Decreased the number of years over which the appliance operates efficiently, and increased the number of years in which it will be inefficiently operating in a critically-low refrigerant charge state.

2. Decreased the temperature range at which efficient operation is achieved, increasing the days and nights when it will be operating inefficiently, if installed anywhere outside a home kept near 70F all day/night.

3. Decreased the overall lifespan of the product, causing each of us to landfill them 3x to 8x faster than our parents.

4. Increased manufacturing and transportation energy usage and pollution, due to increased replacement and disposal frequency.

I could go on... but at some point, you need to wonder if perhaps a few ounces more refrigerant is less harmful to the environment, than the solution mandated today.

 

[begreen]

Sounds like maybe they were not made for efficiency. Our 2012 energy star GE refrig is doing great. FWIW, our parents didn't have 3 under the counter refrigerators in the garage.

 

[Ashful]

Sounds like maybe they were not made for efficiency. Our 2012 energy star GE refrig is doing great. FWIW, our parents didn't have 3 under the counter refrigerators in the garage.

I think you missed the point of the post, about mandates affecting the total energy usage over the lifetime of a product, but they are all energy star certified.

And FWIW, my parents had a huge old 1953 GE refrigerator in the garage, still running there when we sold the house in 1999, and very likely still running in that same garage today. Next to that, was a similarly-ancient freezer chest into which you could pack a half steer or up to three deer, just like every other house in the neighborhood. They surely pulled 10x the power of my three little under-counter collegiate-sized cabinets.

By what measure is your 2012 unit "doing great"? Have you actually monitored its energy usage over time?