Are we cooked?

[woodgeek]

There is a bit of chatter on the internet these days that EVs sales 'have collapsed', and that EVs are basically 'over'. I read it in the WSJ.

LOL.

So for your consideration here is a little video from Marques Brownlee

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It says that Xaiomi (basically, China's equivalent of Apple) makes a car now, and it is both remarkable and priced at $42k. Among its many features, it also does 0-60 in 2.6 seconds.
MB says it compares favorably with a Tesla model costing at least $10k more, and 'feels' like a $70k car.

Of course, this car has been banned in the US. That's right. There IS an actual car ban in the US. Not an ICE car ban, which is a right-wing fantasy talking point. The actual ban is the one that keeps you from buying this car.

The car WILL be sold in the EU. We will see what happens there in a few years with a little competition.

Before anyone says that $42k is a lot of money, the average new car sticker price in the US in 2025 is $48k. Importing these cars would improve affordability! And that would also mean I could buy one used for $25k in 2029.

 

[EbS-P]

At some point in the future we will import Chinese autos. The US has the most money and the largest market outside of china.

What will the US based manufacturers be offering and at what price point when this happens? Now a conflict with China will change everything. Will we be able to new get phones if this happens?

China needs our business now. As the African population explodes and India continues to modernize they may not need us. That’s a scary prospect. We should be drops trade barriers, while investing in our own manufacturing capabilities.


Anyone x-mas shopping for their kids can tell you current policy has increased prices 20-30%. Quality hasn’t improved selection has decreased. I expect the same in the automotive segment.

 

[woodgeek]

Yeah, everyone (including the car companies) knows that the US makers are going to have to adapt or die. This has been clear for many years now. I am confident that they can and will adapt, probably with some fat checks from US taxpayers at some point.

The previous guys policies were designed to help this process along in as orderly a way as possible.

The current guys 'policies' are designed to delay this process until the consequences of that delay no longer matter to him personally.

 

[EbS-P]

Yeah, everyone (including the car companies) knows that the US makers are going to have to adapt or die. This has been clear for many years now. I am confident that they can and will adapt, probably with some fat checks from US taxpayers at some point.

The previous guys policies were designed to help this process along in as orderly a way as possible.

The current guys 'policies' are designed to delay this process until it no longer matters to him personally.

Let’s assume today’s Luxury segment contains the tech and engineering for tomorrow’s volume/economy segment. What Luxury EVs from the traditional manufacturers are worth buying today? Bring back to the original video.

 

[stoveliker]

Question, I heard he's removing car mileage standards, and "this will allow 70s station wagons to come back".

I always liked station wagons in Europe..
Many still being made and driving there (with their efficiency standards). I thought they made sense; lots of cargo space and not the frontal air resistance profile of ann SUV.

So what's the 70s remark refer to?

 

[woodgeek]

Let’s assume today’s Luxury segment contains the tech and engineering for tomorrow’s volume/economy segment. What Luxury EVs from the traditional manufacturers are worth buying today? Bring back to the original video.

I think there are a lot of very nice EVs available in the US for more than $50k. Tesla's updated products (Y and 3) are much improved. I love my 2022 Volvo C40. Since I got it used for $28k I consider it an 'economy car'. Many nice offerings from German and Korean makers. I could note that Volvo is now 100% owned by Chinese EV maker Geely.

GM sells the Equinox EV (haven't checked it out) and some larger offerings in small volumes. I assume they are intentionally not 'techy'.
Ford says its discontinuing the Lightning. The MachE seems a bit stale (and a poorer value used than my Volvo).
Japanese makers are making similar choices to sit this out.

So Tesla is the only US maker really competing in the EV space. Their offerings in China (features and prices) are probably closer to the Xaiomi. We in the US currently get their oldest tech, bc we are the least competitive market for them.

 

[woodgeek]

Question, I heard he's removing car mileage standards, and "this will allow 70s station wagons to come back".

I always liked station wagons in Europe..
Many still being made and driving there (with their efficiency standards). I thought they made sense; lots of cargo space and not the frontal air resistance profile of ann SUV.

So what's the 70s remark refer to?

Huh. I've read about this a bit. Biden's CAFE requirements were ramping fleet mpgs up rapidly, to something like 50 mpg in a couple more years. And that would effectively force a decent fraction of EV sales from each maker to keep up. The new CAFE regs are not going back to 1970's levels, and are still slightly higher than new car fleet averages now. Basically stasis is allowed for the makers.... they will not have to increase EV sales or ICE car MPGs significantly to comply.

The station wagon comment was just some blather.

 

[Duds13]

There is a bit of chatter on the internet these days that EVs sales 'have collapsed', and that EVs are basically 'over'. I read it in the WSJ.

LOL.

So for your consideration here is a little video from Marques Brownlee

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

It says that Xaiomi (basically, China's equivalent of Apple) makes a car now, and it is both remarkable and priced at $42k. Among its many features, it also does 0-60 in 2.6 seconds.
MB says it compares favorably with a Tesla model costing at least $10k more, and 'feels' like a $70k car.

Of course, this car has been banned in the US. That's right. There IS an actual car ban in the US. Not an ICE car ban, which is a right-wing fantasy talking point. The actual ban is the one that keeps you from buying this car.

The car WILL be sold in the EU. We will see what happens there in a few years with a little competition.

Before anyone says that $42k is a lot of money, the average new car sticker price in the US in 2025 is $48k. Importing these cars would improve affordability! And that would also mean I could buy one used for $25k in 2029.

Wow, 0 to 60 in 2.6 seconds in boldface. We must import this car NOWWWWWWWWWWWWW!

 

[woodgeek]

Wow, 0 to 60 in 2.6 seconds in boldface. We must import this car NOWWWWWWWWWWWWW!

Did I mention the 10,000 lb tow rating?

 

[DBoon]

Yeah, everyone (including the car companies) knows that the US makers are going to have to adapt or die. This has been clear for many years now. I am confident that they can and will adapt, probably with some fat checks from US taxpayers at some point.

For some time now my prediction on this forum has been that two of the Big 3 US automakers will survive, and maybe two of the Japanese car makers will make the transition (now I am convinced maybe only one Japanese carmaker will transition successfully to EVs in 20 years time).

GM had invested early and will survive the transition to EVs despite everything they've done to screw it up (botched the battery technology rollout/startup, focused too much on big EVs too early when that market could care less about EVs), but they have a pretty solid lineup and can scale up from what they have if the accountants and the marketing team don't screw it up from here (as they usually do). The marketing team is off to a good start with screwing it up by deciding they won't support CarPlay anymore on new cars. But GM is rolling out some pretty decent EVs at good price points and doesn't seem to be bleeding money doing it, and if you count the Honda Prologue in their sales numbers (it is a rebadged GM EV) they were doing pretty well.

Ford - I dunno about them and am less confident now than I was 3 years ago that they are viable in 15-20 years. They scrambled with pieced together technology (MachE, Lightning truck) that were ok and looked "strategic" to dumb investors, but the reality is that they are very late to creating a battery and drive platform that could scale up (something GM committed to early, but stumbled with). Ford had some early EV sales success but lost a ton of money (due to pieced together technologies) and now their offering looks stale or has been discontinued.

Stellantis (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, RAM, other overseas brands) - These guys are toast. They are bankrupt in 5-10 years and Chinese companies will buy up Jeep and RAM and Chrysler/Dodge brands will be gone (Chrysler is pretty much dead as a brand now).

Korean automakers - have invested well in EVs and have competitive products. Will likely be continuing players.

Japanese automakers - Nissan is toast. I thought both Honda and Toyota would both survive, now I think it is lucky if just one of them survives given that China is not buying Japanese cars anymore and if the Japanese automakers don't move past their hydrogen pipe dreams and stop clinging to the ICE/EV hybrids forever, then the Korean and Chinese automakers will take at least half their share 20 years out.

German automakers - mostly seem to get it and have decent products, but BEVs seem to be resetting what is a luxury car and who the luxury brands are and this will hurt BMW and Mercedes. VW is bleeding cash right now and their EV lineup (my opinion) seems pretty uninspiring (at least in the states). When BYD eats VWs lunch in Europe, that could cause a steady decline that would be tough to recover from.

 

[Duds13]

Will this car stop working in 2 years like everything else from China?

 

[woodgeek]

Will this car stop working in 2 years like everything else from China?

Fair... might want to see how products from a brand new maker hold up.

I would refer your question to the US dealerships that sell these cars... oh wait.

 

[Duds13]

Fair... might want to see how products from a brand new maker hold up.

I would refer your question to the US dealerships that sell these cars... oh wait.

Maybe you should move to China?

 

[woodgeek]

Maybe you should move to China?

Naw. I'm too old to learn Mandarin, and their big cities are laid out poorly. And did you know their equivalent of the Social Security system is total cr@p?

But I'll keep working with my happy Chinese students who come here to work hard and find the land of opportunity.

 

[begreen]

Ford's CEO tried out an SU7 for 6 months. He ended up saying he didn't want to give it back.

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a62705480/ford-ceo-jim-farley-praises-xiaomi-su7-chinese-electric-car/

The Koreans are producing good evs. I'm pretty happy with the EV6. The range and charging speed are good, and it has most of the same features of the SU7.

 

[EbS-P]

But I'll keep working with my happy Chinese students who come here to work hard and find the land of opportunity.

My sister works for a boarding highschool in VA. Their incoming class is smaller because they were unable to replace Chinese students that didn’t materialize and are concerned about their long term financial viability if they can’t make up the revenue from the lost Chinese students.

I think there are a lot of very nice EVs available in the US for more than $50k.

I will agree. I’m going to say that the 3 and Y are not Luxury cars. Expensive yes. I will define a luxury vehicle as one with a price above $75k seating fewer than 9. (I gotta keep the ID Buzz and my Sprinter) out of the list. This leaves basically Tesla and GM. S,X, Cyber Truck, extended range Silverado and the Cadillac EVs. Mercedes has some EVs I’d count. BMW probably too. These are all going to be small volumes (the exception I see the the 2xx mile range Chevy. It could sell well if its software is good now the Ford Lightning has been discontinued. ).

The Jeep recall (all x4e products) pretty much means they do have not even a hybrid powertrain available.


We’re totally going to have to bail one or two out again!

 

[begreen]

Lucid, the larger Volvo EX90, Mercedes EQB300, and Porche Taycan are in that group too.

 

[EbS-P]

Lucid, the larger Volvo EX90, Mercedes EQB300, and Porche Taycan are in that group too.

I don’t think Lucid will make it. They have a well designed product but it takes more than that. The others certainly qualify but are not the BIG three. The MB EQS is eye catching. It didn’t sell well and they sent inventory back across the pond.

 

[begreen]

The "big three" will change over time though I agree that currently GM is best positioned. But their read on the market is not spot on. Their model is too large SUV driven. Coming from the Volt we had high hopes for the Equinox. After 5 minutes though, my wife didn't want anything to do with it. It was too big for her, only a couple inches shorter than the Blazer. Ford and Stellantis continue to lose money in the EV market. Lower volume, but Genesis and Audi are not snoozing either and the Kia EV9 sits above the $65k mark.

 

[bogieb]

Question, I heard he's removing car mileage standards, and "this will allow 70s station wagons to come back".

I always liked station wagons in Europe..
Many still being made and driving there (with their efficiency standards). I thought they made sense; lots of cargo space and not the frontal air resistance profile of ann SUV.

So what's the 70s remark refer to?

Apparently there is the thought that we are yearning for wood paneled vehicles, and that can only be done with a station wagon. IDK, ramblings of an OWG.

 

[bigealta]

That's a very impressive review of this car.
I'm a former BMW guy, now a CRV driver, and much prefer the simplicity of the CRV to the constant repair battles with the bmw's (2002, 316i, 318i, 318is, 323 wagon, & mom's X1 is Terrible suv)
That said if i go for a 2nd car in the future that car would be on the top of the list if available. Let's see how she holds up over time.

 

[DBoon]

Will this car stop working in 2 years like everything else from China?

I personally wouldn't buy a Chinese-branded EV for at least another 5, and more likely 10 years from now (and then I would assess again before purchase).

However, in general, Chinese products are quickly catching up to western standards for durability and quality and we should expect that customer perceptions will match this reality in the not-too-distant future (begreen has made this same point), and companies who don't recognize this reality will be in for a sorry state of affairs. Is improved Chinese quality true of everything you buy at a dollar store or Harbor Freight or WalMart ? No, it is not. Those companies beat cost (and quality, in the process) out of their Chinese vendors and therefore you get what you pay for.

My lived (work) experience is that 15 years ago Chinese vendors were just across the board notoriously bad with how they sourced components (lots of counterfeit parts, substitutions without validation) combined with poor/marginal design and testing. However, they have made a lot of strides in the last 15 years. My perception is still that Chinese quality is less than that of established western brands and I would not spend tens of thousands of dollars on any Chinese-branded product because it is too much of a risk (my belief). Others will think differently and Chinese brands will gain market share. The same has happened with Japanese car quality evolution and Korean car quality evolution. I would buy a Korean car today but would not have in 2000.

I would consider a Chinese-built EV that had western brand oversight (e.g., Volvo/Geely EVs) because I think the value the western brand adds is some additional oversight on design practices and validation because they need to protect the long-term value of their brand.

 

[DBoon]

though I agree that currently GM is best positioned. But their read on the market is not spot on. Their model is too large SUV driven.

Yeah, that's my point. They thought they would deploy everything into big SUVs and trucks and rake in the money in the process, but that market doesn't want EVs. Meanwhile, they discontinued the Bolt which was their only successful vehicle at that point. Baffling.

Ford and Stellantis continue to lose money in the EV market.

In October of 2022 I was at the Energy Conversion Congress and Exhibition in Detroit. All the big 3 automakers had a presence there. GM's booth was very impressive - they had the Hummer EV drivetrain and vehicle on display (expected to soon be released).

Ford had some reasonably impressive prototype displays but not actual vehicles. It was obvious that they were late to the game and hadn't yet envisioned a battery/drivetrain platform like GM had. But at least they had some type of ideas and strategy (just late and not well executed through today).

Stellantis (maybe not named that at the time) had a pathetic minimally sized booth with the standard show cardboard sign and drapery backdrop and were showing some type of concept for what could become a hybrid (electric assist) drivetrain for their gas trucks. The difference between Stellantis and GM/Ford was pretty shocking - it was clear that their was no strategy at all for EVs at Stellantis (at least at that time, and I think that basically continues today).

 

[weee123]

Ford is coming out with a new universal EV platform. Not sure why you guys think they are throwing in the towel on EV’s.

https://www.fromtheroad.ford.com/us/en/articles/2025/inside-new-ford-universal-ev-production-system

 

[begreen]

Ford is coming out with a new universal EV platform. Not sure why you guys think they are throwing in the towel on EV’s.

https://www.fromtheroad.ford.com/us/en/articles/2025/inside-new-ford-universal-ev-production-system

I didn't mean to imply they are quitting EVs. But they have been hunting and pecking for quite awhile and still haven't hit their stride. Stellantis appear to be mostly active in the European EV market though the have some hybrids in the US. The RAM pickup appears to use a Volt style drive system.

PS: The Chevy Bolt has not been abandoned. It is coming back as a 2026 with the Ultium battery system. It's still a subcompact. GM has no sedans or compact car segment now. We would have gladly stuck with them if they have a good car in that size range. Heck, I would even have liked a wagon like the Buick Velite 6sold in China.

Buick Velite 6 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org