Are we cooked?

[DBoon]

Not sure why you guys think they are throwing in the towel on EV’s.

I didn't say they were throwing in the towel on EVs - I said that they were very behind and at risk of not catching up, their position is worse now than it was 5-10 years ago, and that their early EVs had cost issues because they strategically didn't plan for them and scrambled to launch them with pieced together components and not an EV-specific platform.

What they announced that could happen in 2027 (or could be delayed - wouldn't be shocked if that happened as delays usually occur with big projects that are completely new). GM announced it's Ultium platform in 2020 and it took 5 years to scale it up and make it manufacturable. Tesla's new product and manufacturing rollouts are typically 2-3 years behind "schedule" (I use that word loosely for anything Elon Musk describes as the schedule). So it could be 2030 before Ford has cost-effective EVs. That may be ok, or it may not be ok - who knows. We'll find out.

 

[DBoon]

The RAM pickup appears to use a Volt style drive system.

This is most likely that is what I saw at ECCE a few years ago. It's not a dumb idea (battery assist for trucks) but doesn't show a lot of strategic thinking 10+ years out and the technology is probably short lived as BEV costs continue to fall and batteries get more energy dense (making a full EV truck more possible).

Look, I get that everyone still wants their big, gas or diesel powered truck for towing and what not today. I also believe that when that truck is available with the same range and the same price as a BEV with a fast charging speed and network that makes it equivalent to a gas fill up on a long trip then there will be a pretty rapid adoption curve.

 

[woodgeek]

I'd like to point out that the Big 3 are in a bind... and that is why they appear to keep stepping on rakes.

First, EV tech (mostly batteries) is rapidly evolving. If you build a battery plant over 2-3 years, then either by the time it opens the chemistry you are making has been obsolete for a year, OR you need to build the factory without knowing what chemistry you will be making when it opens.

Second, you need to manage a scaling product cycle... where you assume annual growth rates of >40%, as you double production, sales, parts, service, etc on an exponential curve for 5-8 years.

Nissan (and GM) have been bitten by the first problem... with big malinvestments in battery production lines that are not competitive.

None of the legacy makers have managed to gracefully scale their EV production, instead having massive delays, not updating the tech fast enough so model sales collapse, etc).

Both of these 'problems' are things that tech startups have to do as their bread and butter. Build and contract production before the tech is finalized, and scale. So folks from the tech industry do that better. Tesla has managed some good scaling/updating (outside the US, which is a backwater), and they partner/contract with battery makers (outside the US, within they build battery plants to comply with US regs).

What is my point? There are advantages to being late adopters, assuming you have captive customers. When the tech has settled down (or battery prices are low enough to only matter at the margins in cost/performance), the Big 3's current approach will likely work OK. And I think the makers actually know all of the above (at least after losing their shirts on battery factories and fancy platforms like Ultium), and are now (logically) dabbling for as long as they can.

When the time comes, the Big 3 will do some teardowns of top of the line EVs (tesla and chinese), recruit engineers from those companies, and build out big product lines. Doing that in a few years will make more sense than doing so now, and protectionism (and bailouts) will guarantee them at least moderate success.

TL/DR; Not cooked.