"Where the tire meets the pavement."
Many of us use that term to represent "reality"...actual, tangible reality.
I detected that the supply of pellets to New England (NE) was going to be an "issue" before I even ordered my stove mid-season. Due to not owning a truck, and expecting to move soon, I was never able to purchase pellet tonnage...just 6-10 bags at a time. THAT put me in a precarious position, and all my survival clairvoyance came to prove accurate.
This past Wednesday, Feb 26, 2014, I popped-over to Lowes to grab my ten-bags with my son along for the ride. Nothing there! "we've been out for days and don't know if we'll get any delivered for this season." Chill-in-spine...went to Walmart, across the parking lot. "Oh heck no....we've been out for days! Not getting any in either...gotta move in the Spring garden and lawn stuff." OH ship
I was not alone in either of these retail encounters either. There were other guys right on my heals and just ahead of me. I was beginning to see a bit of strong 'concern' on some faces.
I sat in the car and had Jr go to work on his iPhone. "Git calling all the Home Depots and Lowes in the area, and I'll concentrate on the non-chain dealers," I ordered. We both came-up with the same conclusion: NE has NO more pellets and replenishment is not likely...period. We also learned that if/when a trailer-load does arrive at any of the stores, there's a mad-dash-flurry that lasts about ten-seconds, and its all gone. Furthermore, you have to "know someone" who knows something about these intermittent and rare deliveries. You need someone to call you and tell you to "be at the Salem Home Depot at 2:00....there's a few pallets coming in." I can only imagine the Rally that ensues on the roads then!
I went to a stove dealer next to my favorite restaurant. The guy behind the counter wrote-down a phone number. "This guy is in town X...yesterday he had 150 tons." WOW! Goldmine! I called the gent like he was a cocaine connection: "someone tells me that you got something...?" "Yeah...you know where I'm at? Cash only...ten-bag limit." "OK...I'll stop at the bank and see ya" I replied. He said..."ONLY if you have to, I may run out...had 150-ton yesterday, got 50 left right now...so I would not delay if you really need pellets." So now Jr. learns the fundamentals of performance driving of a TDi Jetta.
When we got to this obscure, unmarked barn: There were 5 parties ahead of us, and an immediate 5 behind us. The gent was only commanding $6.00 per bag and and I fortunately had the cash. While Jr. loaded the wagon, I chatted-up the gent and learned that all he was seeing in the past two-days is "panic and fear." He teared-up when he recounted one elderly lady's visit that morning. She woke up in a 40deg-F house and KNEW she was facing certain death. Had it not been for this 'covert supply,' she explained that certain death, and gave the gent a big hug for "saving her life."
I looked around at other customers. Some were looking like fat-wallet yuppies...some soccer-moms, etc. But I saw a level of fear and bug-eyed panic that I've not seen since 9-11. My son noticed it too. At 15, he identified that very-dire look on faces as being dangerous or just extreme panic. It was really horrid to see.
As we drove our 10-bags home, we discussed the realities of supply & demand...production limits and their realities...preparedness and ... well... this. These pellets came from Canada, as virtually all of the local Northeast USA plants are at full production. I explained that "full production" means there is not any more product output possible...period!
We looked at demand: 1) People like us, who shifted to a new pellet stove mid-season as a required alternative to other fuels. These people are now buying as much as anyone else, but its a surprise to the producer's forecasting charts. Thus...a shortage-reason. 2) The established pellet stove users have ALL run out of pellets by now, as they purchased their tonnage before Winter, according to prior-use data. With this Winter being VERY extreme, BTU-spend went through the stratosphere. So THESE people are now out searching for more pellets. 3) There are the "Just-In-Time" users. That is: Those who buy their bags as needed due to cash-flow or storage limitations in their life. THOSE people are still out right now, searching for pellets. 4) And then there's the 40% increase in BTU demand due to this harsh weather. THAT increases demand across the board.
So the forecasts affect production rates and limits. Production is in fact finite, and we are seeing an honest-to-God, textbook example of "supply deficit." We are using more than can be supplied. We are seeing reactions and realities like: panic, threat to life, transportation-shifts (as-in right now, pellets are tending to stay wherever they are, due to local demand). We see mega-stores not willing, caring or geared to react/respond to this massive shift in demand. We see prices reacting very very little, and it may be out of 'ethics' or possibly 'market-oblivion.'
More importantly, for my son, we are seeing humanity tested. The "barn connection" gent rationed-out bags for the benefit of all in need. He did not price-gouge (the pellets were ultra-premium). He asked that people not return until they were close-to-out, so as to ensure greater distribution of life-saving heat. He saw how bad things can get in very short-order.
"Now imagine this is FOOD instead of heat!"
Many of us use that term to represent "reality"...actual, tangible reality.
I detected that the supply of pellets to New England (NE) was going to be an "issue" before I even ordered my stove mid-season. Due to not owning a truck, and expecting to move soon, I was never able to purchase pellet tonnage...just 6-10 bags at a time. THAT put me in a precarious position, and all my survival clairvoyance came to prove accurate.
This past Wednesday, Feb 26, 2014, I popped-over to Lowes to grab my ten-bags with my son along for the ride. Nothing there! "we've been out for days and don't know if we'll get any delivered for this season." Chill-in-spine...went to Walmart, across the parking lot. "Oh heck no....we've been out for days! Not getting any in either...gotta move in the Spring garden and lawn stuff." OH ship
I was not alone in either of these retail encounters either. There were other guys right on my heals and just ahead of me. I was beginning to see a bit of strong 'concern' on some faces.
I sat in the car and had Jr go to work on his iPhone. "Git calling all the Home Depots and Lowes in the area, and I'll concentrate on the non-chain dealers," I ordered. We both came-up with the same conclusion: NE has NO more pellets and replenishment is not likely...period. We also learned that if/when a trailer-load does arrive at any of the stores, there's a mad-dash-flurry that lasts about ten-seconds, and its all gone. Furthermore, you have to "know someone" who knows something about these intermittent and rare deliveries. You need someone to call you and tell you to "be at the Salem Home Depot at 2:00....there's a few pallets coming in." I can only imagine the Rally that ensues on the roads then!
I went to a stove dealer next to my favorite restaurant. The guy behind the counter wrote-down a phone number. "This guy is in town X...yesterday he had 150 tons." WOW! Goldmine! I called the gent like he was a cocaine connection: "someone tells me that you got something...?" "Yeah...you know where I'm at? Cash only...ten-bag limit." "OK...I'll stop at the bank and see ya" I replied. He said..."ONLY if you have to, I may run out...had 150-ton yesterday, got 50 left right now...so I would not delay if you really need pellets." So now Jr. learns the fundamentals of performance driving of a TDi Jetta.
When we got to this obscure, unmarked barn: There were 5 parties ahead of us, and an immediate 5 behind us. The gent was only commanding $6.00 per bag and and I fortunately had the cash. While Jr. loaded the wagon, I chatted-up the gent and learned that all he was seeing in the past two-days is "panic and fear." He teared-up when he recounted one elderly lady's visit that morning. She woke up in a 40deg-F house and KNEW she was facing certain death. Had it not been for this 'covert supply,' she explained that certain death, and gave the gent a big hug for "saving her life."
I looked around at other customers. Some were looking like fat-wallet yuppies...some soccer-moms, etc. But I saw a level of fear and bug-eyed panic that I've not seen since 9-11. My son noticed it too. At 15, he identified that very-dire look on faces as being dangerous or just extreme panic. It was really horrid to see.
As we drove our 10-bags home, we discussed the realities of supply & demand...production limits and their realities...preparedness and ... well... this. These pellets came from Canada, as virtually all of the local Northeast USA plants are at full production. I explained that "full production" means there is not any more product output possible...period!
We looked at demand: 1) People like us, who shifted to a new pellet stove mid-season as a required alternative to other fuels. These people are now buying as much as anyone else, but its a surprise to the producer's forecasting charts. Thus...a shortage-reason. 2) The established pellet stove users have ALL run out of pellets by now, as they purchased their tonnage before Winter, according to prior-use data. With this Winter being VERY extreme, BTU-spend went through the stratosphere. So THESE people are now out searching for more pellets. 3) There are the "Just-In-Time" users. That is: Those who buy their bags as needed due to cash-flow or storage limitations in their life. THOSE people are still out right now, searching for pellets. 4) And then there's the 40% increase in BTU demand due to this harsh weather. THAT increases demand across the board.
So the forecasts affect production rates and limits. Production is in fact finite, and we are seeing an honest-to-God, textbook example of "supply deficit." We are using more than can be supplied. We are seeing reactions and realities like: panic, threat to life, transportation-shifts (as-in right now, pellets are tending to stay wherever they are, due to local demand). We see mega-stores not willing, caring or geared to react/respond to this massive shift in demand. We see prices reacting very very little, and it may be out of 'ethics' or possibly 'market-oblivion.'
More importantly, for my son, we are seeing humanity tested. The "barn connection" gent rationed-out bags for the benefit of all in need. He did not price-gouge (the pellets were ultra-premium). He asked that people not return until they were close-to-out, so as to ensure greater distribution of life-saving heat. He saw how bad things can get in very short-order.
"Now imagine this is FOOD instead of heat!"
