EV vs ICE

[begreen]

It depends on the car, refrigerant, and configuration. Most are good down to about 20ºF, but some, like Teslas work in Norway cold temps. Eventually though, the heat loss of the car body will exceed the output of the best systems. It's not a well insulated envelope and some cars have a lot of glass exposure.

 

[begreen]

It looks like a hyperheat style heatpump is used in vehicles such as the Tesla Model Y, Ford F-150 Lightning, Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6 and others. Rated good for sub- zero temps. I don't see a lot of winter mileage decline in our car and my wife likes it warm. In our 2018 Volt we would go from 70+ EV miles in summer to about 42 mile range in winter with its resistance heater.

Understanding heat pump systems in EVs and hybrids

Let's dive into what automotive heat pumps are, how they work, and cover concerns technicians need to be aware of when diagnosing them.

www.vehicleservicepros.com

 

[ABMax24]

It sounds like a new hybrid F150 is in the works. There is one for the upper trim 2025s already.

Note, a good EV uses a heatpump for primary cabin heat with a backup resistance coil. But I can see how the hybrid makes much more sense for your area, extreme cold weather, and distances driven.

They do have the Powerboost, which is based on the 3.5 ecoboost. An electrician friend has one, the onboard inverter is awesome for him, and gets good mileage in the summer. Unfortunately it's been towed out of his driveway a few times in the winter and brought to the dealer. Maybe the newer model years are better, as his was the first model year.

I have another friend with a Model 3, I should ask him if his has the heat pump and how well it works.

 

[DBoon]

Normal (whatever that may be) heat pumps may not cut it up there, especially when not much inefficiency (=heat) exists in the power train.

OK - the thread is fast filling with (always useful) anecdotes to make points. I'll add one with a bit of levity. Years ago (~1995) I traveled to Fort McMurray, Alberta (visit to Syncrude). It was about -35 degrees F when I arrived. I rented a car. The seats were normal foam filled but felt hard (frozen). The rental agency told me never to turn the car off unless I was parked overnight and plugged into a battery warmer. The engine produced enough waste heat to make it feel like it was about 40 degrees F in the car after about a 20 mile drive. Yeah, I can't imagine owning a BEV up there in the winter time.

 

[Turbo89]

I think the Ford Maverick Hybrid is a concept Ford needs to scale into their larger models, they did license the Toyota design after all. My parents have the Rav 4 hybrid, and it's a solid setup. My issue is a Maverick is too small for my needs. They'd have to move that package up to the F150 to suit me.

I love those trucks, and looked at them heavily; in the end it just couldn’t pull the trailer weight I needed. I tried to convince the wife to get one so I could drive it; butt the kiddos and 100lb dog made it a tough sell.

 

[EbS-P]

America’s infrastructure can’t support 100% EV adoption,

Sure it can. It’s supporting data centers. It’s not an over night thing. It’s something that utilities have time to plan for. I’m guessing in 25 years EVs will be over half but less than 3/4 registrations.

For those that live where it gets really cold there will be aftermarket solutions just like now. Would I install a diesel heater in an EV? Maybe. Once the market gets established cold climate package may include more than heated seats and wheel,

Amazing that emissions from mere gasoline production (not consumption) are the same as that of the kWh production for BEVs (current grid mix).

Makes since that fossil fuel extraction has roughly the same emissions oil Vs natural nat gas and coal.

 

[stoveliker]

For those that live where it gets really cold there will be aftermarket solutions just like now.

Just like block heaters now; ice engines don't do well out there without such things either...

Makes since that fossil fuel extraction has roughly the same emissions oil Vs natural nat gas and coal.

I think it's more the production of (pure) fuels rather than the extraction for oil and gas that carries their carbon budget.
Coal may be extraction.

Refineries use a TON of energy.

 

[begreen]

Sure it can. It’s supporting data centers. It’s not an over night thing. It’s something that utilities have time to plan for. I’m guessing in 25 years EVs will be over half but less than 3/4 registrations.

For those that live where it gets really cold there will be aftermarket solutions just like now. Would I install a diesel heater in an EV? Maybe. Once the market gets established cold climate package may include more than heated seats and wheel,

Makes since that fossil fuel extraction has roughly the same emissions oil Vs natural nat gas and coal.

Yes, I had a VW fastback years ago with an auxiliary Webasto heater. That thing would blast out heat instantly. I've installed a couple of Espars in sailboats for heat too.

 

[woodgeek]

Saw an interesting chart re global EV adoption:

source: https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/The-EV-leapfrog-PDF.pdf

While many in the US insist that they can't possibly afford EVs, or find a place to charge them, folks in Vietnam, Thailand and Uruguay are buying EVs at >3X the rate in the old USA. And Indians are buying more EVs than folks in Japan.

What's going on here? Countries with polities controlled by oil companies (US?) or legacy car companies (Japan?) are laggards. Same old story. I'm sure someone will offer that all those countries have warmer climates too.

Imagine (if these trends held over time) traveling to a 'third world country' in ten years time, and seeing electric cars zipping around everywhere, and then flying home and getting in your gas jalopy at the airport.

 

[stoveliker]

Another part of this is the barriers (whether safety standards or protectionism) for importing the cheaper EVs here.
They ARE more expensive here. Whether that is unaffordable or not is an individual decision.

 

[begreen]

Seems to be related to fossil fuel subsidies? This is the case in India where gas/diesel prices are kept low. However, outrageous urban air pollution is changing policy there. We continue to subsidize fossil fuels here bigly without a peep of outcry.

Gasoline Subsidies in Latin America: A Regional Disparity

The help governments give citizens through education, food, and unemployment subsidies does not cause as much of a stir as gasoline. Since 2022 some countries have tried to eliminate it from their social programs

latinamericanpost.com

 

[stoveliker]

here bigly without

Please. Not bigly.
🤣

 

[bogieb]

Looking at the EV trends in Latin America, most being sold are subcompact. I think it is pretty obvious that people in the USA prefer larger vehicles at this point in time (right, wrong or indifferent). The first SUV that appears on the list for Latin America is the #6.



Looking at other places in the world, it looks like they have reduced or eliminated import taxes/tariffs ( and/or or VATs) way below what other vehicles would be (1% versus 11% in Thailand's case) - which reduces the cost BIGLY

But, what I found most interesting was the first graph in the link just above. China is first in purchasing BEV and PHEV (not surprising), Europe is second and USA is third. The REST OF THE WORLD (including Latin America, Viet Nam, Uruguay etc) adds up to just slightly less than the USA.

 

[EbS-P]

But, what I found most interesting was the first graph in the link just above. China is first in purchasing BEV and PHEV (not surprising), Europe is second and USA is third. The REST OF THE WORLD (including Latin America, Viet Nam, Uruguay etc) adds up to just slightly less than the USA.

I wonder if we normalized to GDP if it would show anything interesting. China would have a lager score than the US, more interesting would be Latin America and India, and the Scandinavian countries.

 

[woodgeek]

Looking at the EV trends in Latin America, most being sold are subcompact. I think it is pretty obvious that people in the USA prefer larger vehicles at this point in time (right, wrong or indifferent). The first SUV that appears on the list for Latin America is the #6.

Looking at other places in the world, it looks like they have reduced or eliminated import taxes/tariffs ( and/or or VATs) way below what other vehicles would be (1% versus 11% in Thailand's case) - which reduces the cost BIGLY

But, what I found most interesting was the first graph in the link just above. China is first in purchasing BEV and PHEV (not surprising), Europe is second and USA is third. The REST OF THE WORLD (including Latin America, Viet Nam, Uruguay etc) adds up to just slightly less than the USA.

Ah, looking at this IEA report for EVs takes me back to the days of looking at their predictions for renewable energy 10 years ago.

Outlook for electric mobility – Global EV Outlook 2025 – Analysis - IEA

Global EV Outlook 2025 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

They predict that EU and China will be >50% and >80% EVs in new light vehicle sales in 2030. And they predict that US and Japan will be at 20%. For the US, that means a doubling of EV sales (fraction) and ~4X larger EV fleet component (still under 10%) in 2030.

This is derived from looking at 'stated policies' of the different countries. Under the Biden admin, the US was targeting 50% EV sales share in 2030, so I suppose that under the current regime that has to be revised down to minimal growth.

Ofc this post is mostly what the kids call 'cope'.

But the IEA has a clear history of underestimating growth (e.g. doing linear projections of exponential growth) in renewable energy: solar, wind and batteries. Especially during times when 'stated policies' were weak.

So I'd like to think that this IEA prediction will be no more accurate than those other ones from 10 years ago.

The report points out that their projection lat year was EVs would reach 50% sales in 2030, and they revised it down to 20% based upon policy announcements in Q1 2025. That's quite a revision!

Ofc, if the US decides to kill domestic production, and tariff (or outright ban) foreign models from the market, then ofc EV sales will be squat. Right now, the situation is not quite that bad (foreign brands have eluded most tariffs, domestic makers are still selling EVs)... so we shall see.

The biggest unknown is how long the current (EV) policies will last.

Here is the 2024 equivalent for comparison. Predicts US at 70% EV light vehicle sales in 2035.

Outlook for electric mobility – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA

Global EV Outlook 2024 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

 

[EbS-P]

The biggest unknown is how long the current (EV) policies will last.

At some point individuals just need to do what’s right. What does your conscious tell you should be doing. The case for EVs is still an easy one. They are cheaper to own even without government incentives. But doing the right thing may be more expensive. And that’s ok. When did we as a nation loose that collective consciousness?

Government policy is not the only way to direct people. And I think we can see now that backlash to policy by new policy is disruptive. I’d happily swap cars for a week for anyone wanting to try out an EV.

 

[woodgeek]

At some point individuals just need to do what’s right. What does your conscious tell you should be doing. The case for EVs is still an easy one. They are cheaper to own even without government incentives. But doing the right thing may be more expensive. And that’s ok. When did we as a nation loose that collective consciousness?

Government policy is not the only way to direct people. And I think we can see now that backlash to policy by new policy is disruptive. I’d happily swap cars for a week for anyone wanting to try out an EV.

I agree. I think the eco crowd and early adopters (and compliance cars) were driving adoption from 2010 up until about 2022. Since then I think the growth has been organic, and driven by people liking the driving experience, TCO and being OK with the fit for their use case. For every person that is EV curious, but gets cold feet worried about fast chargers, there is another that researches the matter for 10 minutes, and decides there are plenty of fast chargers for their needs and then gets an EV.

So I guess I didn't think that Biden could really pull the adoption curve forward more than a couple years. Neither do I think Trump can push it back more than a couple (short an outright or effective ban on sales, which has not happened).

I guess the IEA going from 50% in 2030 (under Biden), to 20% in 2030 (under Trump) might be nothing more than a 4 year swing. That 20% in 2030 could still be 50% in 2035.

 

[EbS-P]

Neither do I think Trump can push it back more than a couple

It will be interesting to see what happens to the manufacturing infrastructure that was initiated by the IRA and has now been written down as a loss.

Will they be sold off? Repurposed? Idled? For how long. The economic hit due to lack of consistency will have impacts beyond a couple years. I can envision an outcome that party control flips and the rebound goes further than the previous administration went. But industry now plans for inconsistency and will slow play any major investments in the US and puts more money into international investments where policy is more consistent.

 

[begreen]

At some point individuals just need to do what’s right. What does your conscious tell you should be doing. The case for EVs is still an easy one. They are cheaper to own even without government incentives. But doing the right thing may be more expensive. And that’s ok. When did we as a nation loose that collective consciousness?

Government policy is not the only way to direct people. And I think we can see now that backlash to policy by new policy is disruptive. I’d happily swap cars for a week for anyone wanting to try out an EV.

Item by item I have phased out fossil fueled devices from our household. The only one left is the garden tractor for which I have not found a strong and reliable substitute and our van, which is a secondary use vehicle primarily used for hauling stuff and camping. It gets less than 3000 miles a year of use. If KIA brings the PV5 to the US, that will replace the van. I await a commercial duty electric lawn tractor suitable for hilly terrain and field mowing.

 

[weee123]

I

Item by item I have phased out fossil fueled devices from our household. The only one left is the garden tractor for which I have not found a strong and reliable substitute and our van, which is a secondary use vehicle primarily used for hauling stuff and camping. It gets less than 3000 miles a year of use. If KIA brings the PV5 to the US, that will replace the van. I await a commercial duty electric lawn tractor suitable for hilly terrain and field mowing.

I believe cub cadet has some electric offerings for lawn tractors and zt’s. Not sure how reliable they are as I’ve never looked into them at all but there are options out there.

 

[begreen]

I

I believe cub cadet has some electric offerings for lawn tractors and zt’s. Not sure how reliable they are as I’ve never looked into them at all but there are options out there.

So far I am not impressed with their service record. Lots of failures compounded by dealers being clueless on fixing them. A ZT is not appropriate for our yard with little level area mowing. Ryobi and Greenworks commercial also have offerings. I've read that the newest Ryobis can work well but tend to burn out motor controllers when the the battery capacity (and voltage) is low and one is trying to go uphill for an extended period of time. Have not networked with Greenwork Commercial owners yet. These are $$ machines.

 

[EbS-P]

I await a commercial duty electric lawn tractor suitable for hilly terrain and field mowing.

I would find another way to offset those emissions. The hours of use for a homeowner probably would never justify the manufacturing emissions.

Used IdBuzz with under, 10k miles are now listing at $55k. But it could be an end of life product stateside. At some point the Kia vans will be available stateside

 

[EbS-P]

If KIA brings the PV5 to the US,

Did well here.

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[begreen]

That's important testing but so painful to watch.

Used IdBuzz with under, 10k miles are now listing at $55k. But it could be an end of life product stateside. At some point the Kia vans will be available stateside.

I like the size and flexibility of the PV5 better. A cargo version is what appeals to me. If they put the larger battery in it, then the range should also be better.

https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/kia/pv5

 

[EbS-P]

That's important testing but so painful to watch.

I like the size and flexibility of the PV5 better. A cargo version is what appeals to me. If they put the larger battery in it, then the range should also be better.

https://www.topgear.com/car-reviews/kia/pv5

It’s a good size. The eSprinter and eTransit are too big to be Priss an EV. Why no one is offering an electric cargo van in the US is beyond me. There for awhile Ford and Nissan were selling a good number of the smaller vans. Now it’s just the big ones.