Hi,
I've not heard of evac tubes failing in low temperatures, but they do have the reputation for collecting ice/hard snow on the outside of the tubes which cannot easily be cleaned off without the risk of breaking the tubes. They take a much longer time to clear the ice themselves as the temperature of the glass envelope is low with the vacuum insulation.
I know this evacs vs flats gets debated and lot and people feel very strongly about one or the other, but I've not seen any hard data that says the evacs outperform the flats.
Some side by side comparisons here:
http://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/WaterHeating/water_heating.htm#Evacuated Tube
You can also use this calculator to compare a few sample flats and evacs at various temperatures:
http://www.builditsolar.com/References/Calculators/Collector/ColEfic.htm
For example, with an ambient temp of 0F, average collector temp of 110F, and full sun:
A Heliodyne Gobi gives: 45.8% efficiency
A Seido evac tube gives: 42.5%
This depends on the particular flat plate or evact tube that you choose -- while the flat plates don't vary much from brand to brand, there is a lot of variation in the efficiency curve between brands of evacs.
But, I think that unless you live in Fairbanks, 0F is awfully low to use for average winter performance. WeatherSpark.com is your friend in determining realistic average daily high temps for your area. I think its best to use the daily high temperature as this is fairly close to the temperature you will do the most collecting at -- or knock the daily high down a few degrees if you like.
The SRCC site has performance reports on every collector they have certified -- (broken link removed to http://www.solar-rating.org/ratings/index.html)
Just bare in mind that the collector output is given for the whole collector, so if the area of the two collectors you are comparing are different, than you have to correct for that.-- just divide the total panel output by the area of the panel to get the output per sqft.
Gary