Federal Solar Tax Credit Ticking down to zero

[peakbagger]

The year 2020 credit is 26% (down from 30%) Next year (2021) it goes down to 22% and then its gone.

Solar has gone down in price so much its not really needed but why look at a gift horse in the mouth.

 

[NoGoodAtScreenNames]

The scheduled removal has kicked me into doing it. I’m a customer of a municipal company where the net metering is pretty bad, but they are also offering an incentive of $1.20 per watt that will expire this year. Even with both the tax credit and the rebate it will be a longer payoff for me than most people. But I don’t think I can count on incentives like these forever. I figured if I’m ever going to do it I should do it now.

 

[peakbagger]

The scheduled removal has kicked me into doing it. I’m a customer of a municipal company where the net metering is pretty bad, but they are also offering an incentive of $1.20 per watt that will expire this year. Even with both the tax credit and the rebate it will be a longer payoff for me than most people. But I don’t think I can count on incentives like these forever. I figured if I’m ever going to do it I should do it now.

My initial guess is you might want to look at a battery to shift your power use. That is done in some California utilities that have too much renewables during the day but need the power in the evening. What the system does is charge up the battery during the day with solar and then use it at night without exporting to the grid. Its called load shifting. Tesla has this capability built into their Powerwall systems but I am not sure if you can buy them outright as they used to only want to do creative financing in order for them to grab the tax benefits and utility incentives. Be aware their salesman have the reputation of doing anything to get their foot in the door. Sunrun also claims to do batteries, like Tesla I expect they will want to get into creative financing but ask up front if they will do a straight sale. Make sure you call Sunrun on the phone and make it clear that you have no interest in getting bombarded with robocalls as I noticed that if you go their website and inquire by clicking on a link it defaults to giving permission for robocalls. Solar City that was bought by Tesla actually sold product with this capability (coincidentally I have Solar City inverter getting delivered this week, I do not plan to use a battery but the price is right as its branded as Solar City unit and expect the manufacture got stuck with it when Solar City shut down).

Note Mass has lot of incentives in addition to federal credit. I think they have a $1000 state tax credit and if you can get into their SMART which pays you for the power produced over 10 years. The program is in transition but here is link to some info https://www.mass.gov/info-details/solar-massachusetts-renewable-target-smart-program . Mass has other incentives programs that are just being rolled out for dispatching battery based power for grid support but not sure if they are in place yet or will extend down to home systems. These programs, like Clean Peak https://www.mass.gov/service-details/clean-peak-energy-standard will pay you to borrow (AKA dispatch) your battery capacity during times when the power demand in Mass is very high. The smart program is probably independent of your utility but not sure if Clean Peak will.

Lithium based batteries tied to PV are just coming into the market and since most areas have net metering they are not common. Several firms like Enphase have announced systems rolling out this year but they market them for backup power in place of generator rather than load shifting.

I would suggest doing the research now and wait until Fall to see how the market grows. The salesmen are going to be pushy as they usually work on commissions and want them now. I just caution you that they are going to aggressively push creative financing options. I do independent power generation partially for a living and even I would have tough time figuring out how badly I will be screwed by signing a PPA/lease with these firms.

 

[NoGoodAtScreenNames]

Since I’m in municipal light district a lot of the incentives in Mass don’t apply. I will get the $1,000 state tax credit, but I’m ineligible for the SMART program. The rebate I’m using is through the DOER in partnership with the municipal light dept. The program runs until June and there are limited funds, so it’s a first come first serve basis.

The biggest downside I have is the “net metering”. There really isn’t anything “net” about it. The muni will pay me the wholesale rate for any electric I send back to the grid. However, it’s metered minute by minute. So there is no using the excess production during the day to offset the night, much less rolling it all up at the end of the billing cycle.

You are right about the battery, but when we looked at it with the installer I still couldn’t justify it. We pay $0.16 per kWh from the grid which isn’t too expensive, especially compared to California time of use rates. I will sell back at $0.04 per kWh. Batteries are still expensive - my installer uses Tesla and that would be $10k after the tax credit. For me that’s about 7-8years of electric bills without solar. That just kills my solar payback calculations. I live in an area where outages are very rare and never very long. So the only real benefit to a battery is to deal with the less than ideal net metering. My thinking on that is that I could finance a battery or I could “rent” a battery from the grid for the differential between the consumer rate and the wholesale rate. We couldn’t really make the numbers work with the battery. Also, if the muni ever improves their net metering plan then the battery would be a sunk cost.

Under the current plan they are encouraging me to use electricity during the day. I have the choice of paying nothing during the day or paying $0.12 at night ($0.16- 0.04). That goes against their efforts for customers to shift their use to the night. I can choose to run my pool pump, a/c, charge a car, run the dishwasher etc. during the day as much I can. I’d also like to get a heat pump I can run instead of / supplement to the oil boiler that would run higher during the afternoon to preheat the house for the night. I hope eventually they will figure this out and adjust the net metering rules. The local solar companies have been pushing them. Hopefully I’m timing it right to get the rebate and the tax incentives before they move to a more favorable arrangement. If not, battery prices will hopefully continue to decrease and at some point in the future it may make sense.

 

[peakbagger]

I was messing with Peabody Mass several years ago and it was not fun. They got to ignore a lot of state rules that applied to the big companies I don't understand your statement that you would pay nothing during the day for power?.

Net Metering is most likely not going to get better, it was carrot to get folks to install solar when it was far more expensive. With the low cost for solar is really just a subsidy.

About your only option is a small solar system sized to match your daytime loads with a diversion controller dumping power to a opportunity load in the summer. If you look at solar generation most production is from March to September with far less September to March so you need to size system to offset reliable summertime daytime loads and have diversion controller going to an opportunity load like an electric car. Off grid folks do the same thing, they charge up the batteries in the AM and then once the batteries are topped off they run their opportunity loads.

 

[NoGoodAtScreenNames]

“Paying nothing during the day” meant that if my daytime usage is less than the output of the system then it’s free watts. Depending on how you account for things you could either think of it as free or costing $0.04.

If I turned off everything in the house the utility would pay me $0.04. If I turn on something non-discretionary during the day it’s “free” since it’s pulled from the array.

For discretionary things I have a choice. Use the power during the day and forgo $0.04 in income or shift it to night and pay $0.12 ($0.16 utility rate - 0.04 of income I got from the day by delaying the use).

You are right about finding some power sinks to use during the day. That will be my plan, it’s just that a battery didn’t make sense. I’m sizing based on my current demand. This won’t account for a plug in we’ll get later this year and an EV after that, replacing my ac with a combined heat pump / ac units and manually shifting some use to the daytime when possible (washers, water heater).

Even if we don’t go to a full net metering where I can use credits from the summer to offset winter any improvement is welcome. My utility is harsher than most others and they are beginning to realize it. Also Mass has gone all in on being carbon neutral, so hopefully it will be a more conducive environment. This will still pay for itself, it will just take longer than other people (10 years by my calculations). If not or it’s longer, then I made a little donation to mother Earth. I’m ok with that too.

 

[peakbagger]

Even though I am in NH, I make my living on Mass efforts and I thank the ratepayers for subsidizing it . Sixteen MWs of CHP installed and counting. I personally installed my first array in NH with almost an infinitely long payback, I did it to learn solar and eventually it got me a job for the last 14 years so the crappy payback was worth it. My newer arrays definitely had much better payback. Five years and no power bill except for the standard fee and SREC sales usually cover them.

 

[Brian26]

I’d also like to get a heat pump I can run instead of / supplement to the oil boiler that would run higher during the afternoon to preheat the house for the night.

This is exactly what I do. Basically crank my mini splits and use my house as giant heat sink during the day. A bonus is the run much more efficient during the higher daytime temps.

Here is a live current shot of my my solar production and both my mini splits running off the solar. I have net metering and mainly use this method to take advantage of the boost in efficiency.

 

[vap0rtranz]

Our PV panels are going up as I type this. It was suppose to be online by EOY ... but installers ran into several problems (fall rains turned the ground mount site into a swamp ...

... rant: Wisconsin had the largest precipitation in 2019 on record -- ever. These "the weather & climate aren't changing" people have their heads stuck in the sand. The State and Fed already rewrote the flood maps here b/c of heavy rain & snow in the past decade. Give it 50 years -- people living on Lake Michigan shores will be raising their houses on stilts like the Hurricane States are already doing. ... end rant)

Net Metering was indeed the carrot, but wasn't our motivation for getting solar. It's the energy offset.

Yup, energy usage offset. I'm not some tree hunging moron that thinks Americans will be like the Germans and build solar on every rooftop, or that batteries and PV are a panacea. But we have to start somewhere. A PV panel thats manufactured -- sure with rare resources -- but built once and then lasts 20-30years beats ALL fuel sources that go up in flames and out the smokestack in a matter of hours. aka. it beats all other sources of fuel because solar panels don't require being constantly "fed" oil, gas, coal, or even wood. Americans who say otherwise boggle the mind.

Our goal with the onsite PV is to _offset_ combustion -- so wood, petro -- with solar. Use that onsite generation to power appliances that don't combust: so we have minisplits, we have a PHEV car, etc. Sure the EV car has batteries, and sure the minisplits have refrigerant; but those appliances beat out all the combustion appliances on how often we have to "drill" down into our country's natural resources.

Americans gotta start somewhere. I'm trying to spread the word that the Sun is a natural resource too, like our natural gas wells, our coal mines, and our forests, etc. The only difference is we don't own the Sun -- but we own the property it shines on

 

[begreen]

This is exactly what I do. Basically crank my mini splits and use my house as giant heat sink during the day. A bonus is the run much more efficient during the higher daytime temps.

Likewise. I started buying wood a few years ago. We now use the heat pump a lot more. It is cheap comparably and we are starting to see some good solar days that are win-win. They warm the house and create power. It's not like April to September yet, but getting better.

Our original 2.5K panels are now 10 yrs old and old tech. The 2.5K second phase panels are much newer. I am wondering if our old panels have any market value and if we should replace them.

 

[peakbagger]

Unless your older panels are defective, they are most likely merrily cranking out more than 90% of the original nameplate. Various studies on older PV panels have been done and rarely do the degrade as much as predicted. Even the orginal quadlam "crispy critters" still are being used and put out power. Hard to lock in a real output value as you need a a standard light source. Your inverter is probably getting old, you will not gain much changing it out prematurely but i could die. I am confused that the older panels are "old tech" unless they are CIGs, they are either mono crystalline or polycrystaline. Sure older panels are marginally less efficient but unless you are limited on roof space, that really does not make a lot of difference. Your inverter is getting old, they usually work or they dont so there is no big efficiency gain in replacing it. My original inverter made it 18 years and I replaced it with microinverters. I just picked up a spare inverter for my other two arrays. I paid less for a new in box inverter with dual MPPT inputs that will cover both of my arrays for far less than I paid for the originals.

 

[begreen]

I paid less for a new in box inverter with dual MPPT inputs that will cover both of my arrays for far less than I paid for the originals.

You're right, our original panels are rated at 195W, but they are an odd design. Our inverter is the gating factor. It caps at 4.5kW which means we don't see peak capacity. It's also dual MPPT. What inverter did you get and what is the maximum wattage between the two arrays?

 

[vap0rtranz]

Our installer put in Enphase IQ7+ microinverters, each connected to 320W REC panels (limit is 440W), partly b/c I specifically asked to be future proofed for a battery setup, even if only for backup.

Many Tesla fan(atic)s say their house batteries still aren't delivered (backordered). Not that Enphase is much better -- their new house batteries are pre-order only in the US. (If we lived in Australia, evidently the new Enphase batteries could already be installed!?) Our installer is keeping us in the loop on when US customers could expect delivery.

 

[peakbagger]

You're right, our original panels are rated at 195W, but they are an odd design. Our inverter is the gating factor. It caps at 4.5kW which means we don't see peak capacity. It's also dual MPPT. What inverter did you get and what is the maximum wattage between the two arrays?

What I rolled the dice on is Solar City labeled Delta Inverter rated for 6 KW.

Grid-Tied Inverter Delta H6 6000W NEW Battery-less Backup UL1741 Rule 21 2MPPT | eBay

This inverter was originally made for TESLA POWERWALLS! + 6000W Max AC output DO NOT MAX THE INVERTER OUT OVER 6KW, IT DRASTICALLY SHORTENS THE LIFESPAN OF THE INVERTER. We've recently found that this inverter can support up to 6kW of power when used off-grid with no battery bank attached.

www.ebay.com

Its an orphan and expect there is no warranty support but I havent heard of any significant solar city inverter failures. It has lot of features that I dont need and probably would need it to be connected to the Tesla to enable them. Its set up for the early version of RSD and the roof box is available which would be nice upgrade to my roof system. My wall system now has microinverters which are exempt and my other array is a pole mount that is also exempt. If and when my utility offers incentives for remote dispatch I would investigate if it made sense to add a Powerwall but expect most of the benefits would end up in Tesla's pocket. It also is supposed to be able to be able to operate grid independent with a Powerwall attached which is the holy grail for some but my grid is very reliable so it would be hard to justify spending the money to buy a Powerwall for that function. My SREC sales are manually reported monthly and my original array doesnt have remote reporting so all I really need is a "plain jane" inverter. My original array has a Fronius that is clipping in cold weather with snow on the ground due the panels (11 year old Evergreens) putting out over nameplate so I will get a minor increase in going to a larger inverter.

The state PUC has allowed a battery dispatch trial for one of the other utilities in the state. If that is successful maybe it will be extended to my utility and I will investigate a battery addition if it happens.

So its a $700 gamble. I will probably install it and take my two Fronius Inverters off line and store them as backups. I installed a electric "gutter" for inverters and my main panel so its not that hard to reconfigure my systems. If its NFG, I will go after the vendor for refund for defective equipment. Generally with power electronics they either work out of the box of they do not.

 

[Dmurph2016]

The scheduled removal has kicked me into doing it. I’m a customer of a municipal company where the net metering is pretty bad, but they are also offering an incentive of $1.20 per watt that will expire this year. Even with both the tax credit and the rebate it will be a longer payoff for me than most people. But I don’t think I can count on incentives like these forever. I figured if I’m ever going to do it I should do it now.

Since I’m in municipal light district a lot of the incentives in Mass don’t apply. I will get the $1,000 state tax credit, but I’m ineligible for the SMART program. The rebate I’m using is through the DOER in partnership with the municipal light dept. The program runs until June and there are limited funds, so it’s a first come first serve basis.

The biggest downside I have is the “net metering”. There really isn’t anything “net” about it. The muni will pay me the wholesale rate for any electric I send back to the grid. However, it’s metered minute by minute. So there is no using the excess production during the day to offset the night, much less rolling it all up at the end of the billing cycle.

You are right about the battery, but when we looked at it with the installer I still couldn’t justify it. We pay $0.16 per kWh from the grid which isn’t too expensive, especially compared to California time of use rates. I will sell back at $0.04 per kWh. Batteries are still expensive - my installer uses Tesla and that would be $10k after the tax credit. For me that’s about 7-8years of electric bills without solar. That just kills my solar payback calculations. I live in an area where outages are very rare and never very long. So the only real benefit to a battery is to deal with the less than ideal net metering. My thinking on that is that I could finance a battery or I could “rent” a battery from the grid for the differential between the consumer rate and the wholesale rate. We couldn’t really make the numbers work with the battery. Also, if the muni ever improves their net metering plan then the battery would be a sunk cost.

Under the current plan they are encouraging me to use electricity during the day. I have the choice of paying nothing during the day or paying $0.12 at night ($0.16- 0.04). That goes against their efforts for customers to shift their use to the night. I can choose to run my pool pump, a/c, charge a car, run the dishwasher etc. during the day as much I can. I’d also like to get a heat pump I can run instead of / supplement to the oil boiler that would run higher during the afternoon to preheat the house for the night. I hope eventually they will figure this out and adjust the net metering rules. The local solar companies have been pushing them. Hopefully I’m timing it right to get the rebate and the tax incentives before they move to a more favorable arrangement. If not, battery prices will hopefully continue to decrease and at some point in the future it may make sense.

What part of mass are you from?

 

[Brian26]

What part of mass are you from?

Looks like Taunton according to this list and they have the states best muncipal incentive. Looks like a max of a 4 kwh system with a $4500 rebate. Thats a pretty generous incentive. That would knock a 4kw system cost way way down at an statewide average $3 watt cost to install.

4000 kwh ×$3.00 = $12k
-$4500 Taunton rebate $7.5
-1000 State tax Credit $6.5
26% tax credit -$1690

Total cost $4810 or $1.20 a watt.

Also, Tesla now sells systems at fixed set prices in 4 sizes. The small is a 3.8 kw system. I put a small system in on their website to see what it would cost in Taunton. It shows the price as being $2234.

 

[NoGoodAtScreenNames]

Looks like Taunton according to this list and they have the states best muncipal incentive.

Nope. We have Reading Municipal

The incentives we have are:

- Federal credit 26%
- State credit $1,000
- MA Dept of energy / RMLD credit of $1.20 per watt for systems up to 25 kw up to 50% of the installed cost. This program expires in a few months.
- Net metering sell back at $0.04 (wholesale rate). No use shifting from daytime to night, summer to winter etc. Basically, use what you generate immediately or sell it back to the utility.