Like the EIA the IEA has a very poor record or forecasting the (past) exponential growth in green energy. They are not allowed to use exponential or economic forecasting methods, and tend to project linear growth forward in time, and then to plateau those sources when future hypothetical 'limits' are reached. IOW, super-conservative.
If we look at the NREL and EIA historical data in wikipedia...we see that Utility Scale Solar continues its remarkable growth, likely to be close to 2% of electrical energy (not BS capacity) on an entire US basis. Distributed (i.e. rooftop) is up to about 1%.
Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_States
So, while all the doomsayers are doomsaying, solar's exponential growth in the US continues unabated, having doubled in the last couple years, and is now up to
3% of US electricity.
In comparison, our green friends in Germany are cruising at
7% solar electricity in 2018, with a slow linear growth rate.
Source:
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/solar-power-germany-output-business-perspectives
I predict the US will pass Germany in solar % production within three years. 2021. We will hit 10% before they do.
BTW, my bro on Cape Cod just did a big install on his retirement home. His computed simple payback time...3 years.
Of course, we can wonder what the California numbers look like....
in 2017 CA was at 11.2% Solar energy (50% higher than Germany), extrapolation suggests it is 12-13% in 2018.
The current cost of a 4kW PV system in CA is just $12.5k
before incentives.
And all new homes have a PV installation mandate.
(Source:
https://news.energysage.com/compare-solar-panel-prices-california/)
In case you think the US figure is driven by those nutty Californians...the share of US solar power in CA has dropped to about 40%, so a back of the envelope would suggest that the US -ex CA would also be over 1.5% solar energy production!
Rock on dudes. Watch this space.
Meanwhile....wind power is cruising at 7%, more than hydro.