Massachusetts passes sweeping climate law

[peakbagger]

BTW, I never can find that NEEP site when I look for it, this is the URL https://ashp.neep.org/#!/product_list/

Contrary to the recent article in the Maine papers, I hear a lot of real world complaints about very cold weather performance of cold climate minisplits. No doubt the output does not match the heating demand at very cold temps for many installations including my own.

 

[woodgeek]

You guys are making my point for me. Massachusetts is trying very hard to be green, which is laudable, but the 2X cost of electricity is a huge albatross around its neck.

Southern New England not having a lot of Heat Pumps is not a tech issue or a culture issue... its a cost issue!
Folks cross shopping a Prius versus a BEV get a whole different answer relative to the rest of the lower 48... the Prius is cheaper!

And thus two big things that need to be done on the road to electrifying the country... both are a full stop.

Silver lining of $$$ kWh... it makes more sense to do rooftop solar (esp with incentives). But rooftop solar is not super scalable to a final net zero grid, more of a niche contribution by a small subset of customers that can afford it. And there is little pricing pressure (I would guess) with such good incentives, so the final systems are probably rather expensive compared to utility/grid solar.

And how many people put in a small solar system to fit their annual usage, without a heat pump or an EV?

And while the rest of the country is heated by Heat Pump, Nat gas or propane, Massachusetts is still locked into HHO, with >50% higher CO2 emissions per delivered BTU of nat gas.

I wonder how many of those MA houses will solar on the roof are still heating with oil?

 

[gthomas785]

I wonder how many of those MA houses will solar on the roof are still heating with oil?

My guess would be most of them. Even if you have "free" electricity, there's a cost to convert and most of the boilers / hydronic systems still have plenty of life in them.

It seems like the trend is that a lot of people who went solar in the last ~5 years also got a mini split or 2 at the same time hoping it would help with the heat. But the reality is that cold climate mini splits don't heat in the winter. Dec-Feb you run into either a capacity or operating cost issue. Oil by contrast is a well understood and reliable heat source no matter how cold it gets.
I have 2 mini spilts, they are great for supplementing the central / wood heat in the fall and spring, but nobody is running their heatpump year round. Once December comes it's time to fire up whatever heating system you already had, and for most people that's oil.

 

[stoveliker]

I do the same. South of MA. I added solar, then minisplits a year later. I heat with them in shoulder season (as in possibly for the first time today; still very gusty and only 52 outside). The oil is still there - but I use wood, of course. It's a kind of insurance. I can run the oil boiler (hydronic heat) with my portable generator if for some reason both the power and the wood stove are out of order.

 

[Garbanzo62]

I am guessing that the Used Car Dealerships are Salivating at this law. What will happen is people will buy a new car in CT, NH, RI or NY, Drive if for a few months and then sell it (probably at a profit) as used in MA. Demand for Gas powered vehicles will skyrocket. Also, be prepared for a new Mileage Tax or increase in tolls. If the gas tax income drops due to increased EV usage, the money will have to come from someplace. Hence you will probably have to pay per mile driven. Would love to see the court fight on that as people will claim that the miles were not driven in State and therefore should not be taxed.

 

[EbS-P]

I’m not at all sold that mini splits are the single cheapest answer for heating but if they carry 75% of the heating load that a really big change in energy consumption.

And to be honest I think the insulation retrofit industry should really come up with some better products. I just listened to a podcast where a new construction house 4200 sq ft, built to be a net zero house, uses a 2 ton air sourced heat pump and has disabled the heat strips. Yep 2100 sq ft per ton. Old inefficient housing stock is an issue.

 

[tlc1976]

Also, be prepared for a new Mileage Tax or increase in tolls. If the gas tax income drops due to increased EV usage, the money will have to come from someplace. Hence you will probably have to pay per mile driven. Would love to see the court fight on that as people will claim that the miles were not driven in State and therefore should not be taxed.

I’m wondering how that will work as EVs get more popular. Currently only the gas powered vehicles are paying the road tax (at least here), but there aren’t enough EVs to make a dent. Using home power to charge an EV is basically the same as putting home heating oil in your diesel tank, which is illegal because it’s not taxed the same.

 

[woodgeek]

My guess would be most of them. Even if you have "free" electricity, there's a cost to convert and most of the boilers / hydronic systems still have plenty of life in them.

It seems like the trend is that a lot of people who went solar in the last ~5 years also got a mini split or 2 at the same time hoping it would help with the heat. But the reality is that cold climate mini splits don't heat in the winter. Dec-Feb you run into either a capacity or operating cost issue. Oil by contrast is a well understood and reliable heat source no matter how cold it gets.
I have 2 mini spilts, they are great for supplementing the central / wood heat in the fall and spring, but nobody is running their heatpump year round. Once December comes it's time to fire up whatever heating system you already had, and for most people that's oil.

I hear you. I have a properly sized 4 ton, old-tech, single speed ASHP heating my 2400 sq ft house in a climate only a few degrees colder than Boston, and if I burn no wood, I use about 10,000 kWh per year. At my 12 cents per kWh, this is a very reasonable $1200 per year. I tore out my boiler years ago, but I would've probably needed about 500 gallons per year for heat. So my HP cost the same as $2.40/gal oil.

And yeah, a minisplit would not heat my place. Too small and crappy distribution.

IOW, in my climate, electrifying my heat and scrapping my boiler was no bigs, back in 2010! And the difference between us is not that HPs don't work, its just that your electricity costs 2x mine. That is all.

I looked at the latest, inverter drive 4 ton split systems (same tech as cold weather minis), and figured they would probably heat my place for 6000-7000 kWh, a considerable savings. But not worth upgrading a $10k+ system to save $400 per year.

Fun fact, half of that $1200 bill is in January, bc that is when I call backup strips. I burned about a face-cord of ash last January on colder days, and saved at least 2000 kWh.

The new tech HP system would not call the strips at all in my climate.

 

[woodgeek]

I’m wondering how that will work as EVs get more popular. Currently only the gas powered vehicles are paying the road tax (at least here), but there aren’t enough EVs to make a dent. Using home power to charge an EV is basically the same as putting home heating oil in your diesel tank, which is illegal because it’s not taxed the same.

The fact is that the much hated gas tax is in fact too small to pay for road and bridge maintenance. Infrastructure gets paid out of the state general budget and gets periodic bailouts from the Feds. This is one reason why our infrastructure is in poor repair.

 

[woodgeek]

I’m not at all sold that mini splits are the single cheapest answer for heating but if they carry 75% of the heating load that a really big change in energy consumption.

And to be honest I think the insulation retrofit industry should really come up with some better products. I just listened to a podcast where a new construction house 4200 sq ft, built to be a net zero house, uses a 2 ton air sourced heat pump and has disabled the heat strips. Yep 2100 sq ft per ton. Old inefficient housing stock is an issue.

THIS. Getting to net zero is not possible with our existing housing stock (without serious retrofitting), vehicles and rooftop solar. With electric heat, I use 15,000 kWh per year in my all-electric house, and that array wouldn't fit on my roof, even if I didn't have a 100% shady lot.

The actual solution will require a nearly carbon free grid and electrifying everything AND a price comparable to my current price (10-15cents plus inflation) to make it attractive. Solar and wind generation are already under a nickel per kWh, so that is not the problem.

But in Mass, as long as the electricity is expensive as it is, no one is gonna electrify anything. And their rooftop solar is gonna be a drop in the bucket.

The big question here is why is not more renewable generation being developed in New England? Given the high retail prices and the low cost f solar and wind, it seems that investors would be minting money. One can talk about intermittency... but that is not a problem until 20% solar+wind at least, which MA is nowhere near. THAT I expect is more a political and cultural issue than a technical one.

 

[stoveliker]

But in Mass, as long as the electricity is expensive as it is, no one is gonna electrify anything. And their rooftop solar is gonna be a drop in the bucket.

For the grid, possibly. For the individual, it makes a lot larger dent than a drop in a bucket. With net metering it can completely fill the bucket.
Long Island is not cheap either per kWh. And that makes rooftop solar so attractive here. MA may be even better (or worse, depending on which side of the kWh $$ you are looking from).

 

[EbS-P]

I hear you. I have a properly sized 4 ton, old-tech, single speed ASHP heating my 2400 sq ft house in a climate only a few degrees colder than Boston, and if I burn no wood, I use about 10,000 kWh per year. At my 12 cents per kWh, this is a very reasonable $1200 per year. I tore out my boiler years ago, but I would've probably needed about 500 gallons per year for heat. So my HP cost the same as $2.40/gal oil.

And yeah, a minisplit would not heat my place. Too small and crappy distribution.

IOW, in my climate, electrifying my heat and scrapping my boiler was no bigs, back in 2010! And the difference between us is not that HPs don't work, its just that your electricity costs 2x mine. That is all.

I looked at the latest, inverter drive 4 ton split systems (same tech as cold weather minis), and figured they would probably heat my place for 6000-7000 kWh, a considerable savings. But not worth upgrading a $10k+ system to save $400 per year.

Fun fact, half of that $1200 bill is in January, bc that is when I call backup strips. I burned about a face-cord of ash last January on colder days, and saved at least 2000 kWh.

The new tech HP system would not call the strips at all in my climate.

Living in colder ( or hotter) climates is just going to be more expensive and our greener solutions may intact cost more than fossil fuel alternatives. We all need to put a value on that cost for our own actions and be prepared for regulations to assign that cost

 

[woodgeek]

For the grid, possibly. For the individual, it makes a lot larger dent than a drop in a bucket. With net metering it can completely fill the bucket.
Long Island is not cheap either per kWh. And that makes rooftop solar so attractive here. MA may be even better (or worse, depending on which side of the kWh $$ you are looking from).

I haven't seen many cases of folks managing all their electricity, space heating and vehicle EV miles in a single rooftop array on top of old construction housing.

And yeah, when I looked up kWh rates, I saw that LI looked like New England... I am now lumping the two together in my brain.

I guess my point is that I think NE+LI is stuck in a 'energy is expensive, so renewable energy will be even more expensive' mindset. Like in 2005 or something. And 'Renewables are so expensive ofc they need subsidies and tax breaks'. And that electrfying everything looks impossible. Again, like 2005.

But I still haven't gotten a straight answer why electricity in NE+LI NEEDS to be so expensive. OK, not enough gas pipelines to bring cheap gas in from PA? We knew that 10 years ago, why weren't more built? We know the gas pipelines were run way below capacity for years... has that been fixed? We know that utility solar is waaaay cheaper than MA retail, why is more not being built? And we know that MA has a great offshore wind resource... and after the Kennedys got done, the next deal was negotiated for a 30 cent/kWh price and got killed by a whistleblower.

The answer always seems to be a utility exec, and a politician pointing the finger at each other or the famous NIMBY.

Meanwhile, the generators and utilities are raking it in. Very Suss.

And now the MA politicos are passing a new climate bill... I don't want to be cynical but I can't wait until they use THAT as justification for hiking MA power even more.

And all the while folks will keep buying ICE cars and installing oil burners... bc the other options don't make financial sense (despite making sense in the rest of the country).

 

[woodgeek]

Living in colder ( or hotter) climates is just going to be more expensive and our greener solutions may intact cost more than fossil fuel alternatives. We all need to put a value on that cost for our own actions and be prepared for regulations to assign that cost

I disagree. Now that solar and wind are cheap, and Heat Pumps are getting better, and EVs are getting better and cheaper... I reject the idea that a green solution HAS to be more expensive than a fossil one.

The fossil cos have been feeding us that malarckey for decades, and saying being green is something for rich people to do. Not any more.

 

[stoveliker]

I haven't seen many cases of folks managing all their electricity, space heating and vehicle EV miles in a single rooftop array on top of old construction housing.

I do. (no EV though, yet). No battery. Net metering. So not (!) off the grid. Using grid power at night. But producing (more than) all kWhs that I use in a year. (And so have room for an EV in the future.)
My heating is not full time electric though: minisplit in shoulder season (started heating today)+stove (when it's T<40F for t>24 hrs).

But I still haven't gotten a straight answer why electricity in NE+LI NEEDS to be so expensive.

Don't we all want to know...

 

[gthomas785]

a few degrees colder than Boston

Just a note that Boston is significantly (5-10 degrees) warmer than most of New England in the winter due to its maritime location

 

[peakbagger]

Prior to my plug in Prime I was covering all my electric demand with extra to run a minisplit with about 4.6 KW of panels. That would definitely fit on my roof. I have an oversized solar hot water system that is occupying a lot of space on the roof so that would probably need to go or one of two panels removed as it generates far more hot water than I will ever use. The plug in Rav 4 would probably cut into my minisplit use to keep me neutral. I think it would be a big challenge to deal with a full EV unless it is for someone like a retired person who does not have a daily commute, then again I have helped someone building a near net zero ranch with a 60 foot long by 20 foot deep roof on the south exposure so he could pack a lot of panels (Definitely was a big job to cover it with shingles). I think most full EV owners end up adding an array on a garage roof, a ground mount or a carport like structure they can use for cover and storage with PV on the roof. That only works in the suburbs (without HOAs) Big cities near the coast will probably have to reply on offshore wind (currently 10 years out in most of New England) to supplement solar.

If you look at typical EU new building standards, they are far stricter than the US as energy was expensive long before Ukraine got in the news. Cheap houses generally are not built, land and taxes are expensive so in most cases middle income folks live in apartments.

 

[stoveliker]

I don't think one can describe "Europe" like that. Building standards are far stricter, but home types vary far too much to result in a meaningful average. I was surprised by that statement (given what I know from my old country), so I looked it up.

This is the most popular type of home in Europe right now

Research shines a light on housing across the European Union. A majority live in houses rather than flats – but there’s an underlying housing crisis going on.

www.weforum.org

 

[woodgeek]

Just a note that Boston is significantly (5-10 degrees) warmer than most of New England in the winter due to its maritime location

Of course, but on a population weighted basis, not as much as you would think. Many people live near the coast.

 

[gthomas785]

Of course, but on a population weighted basis, not as much as you would think. Many people live near the coast.

Okay but those locations also have natural gas

 

[woodgeek]

Okay but those locations also have natural gas

Not where I grew up, or where any of my siblings have lived.

 

[tlc1976]

The fact is that the much hated gas tax is in fact too small to pay for road and bridge maintenance. Infrastructure gets paid out of the state general budget and gets periodic bailouts from the Feds. This is one reason why our infrastructure is in poor repair.

That’s true. The only way we got any roads fixed was to adopt local millages.

 

[woodgeek]

I really don't mean to beat up on Mass or New England folks. I think folks there are trying to do the right (and affordable) thing given some real chit choices by their utilities and their utility regulators, who have made some rather bad (or corrupt?) decisions historically. And painted the industry there into a corner that is rather far from the electrification direction that the US needs to go in.

I mostly think its sad, and fear the result is that Mass will ultimately bring up the rear on green tech.

 

[woodgeek]

...I think most full EV owners end up adding an array on a garage roof, a ground mount or a carport like structure they can use for cover and storage with PV on the roof. That only works in the suburbs (without HOAs) Big cities near the coast will probably have to reply on offshore wind (currently 10 years out in most of New England) to supplement solar.

Of course, utility solar is far cheaper than rooftop, so if there is not enough roof space, any open land in the exurbs will do as well. Offshore wind will be helpful for winter electrification needs, but I expect that will get developed off DE, NJ and LI before it comes to Mass at scale. But I'd be happy to be wrong about that.

 

[ABMax24]

I disagree. Now that solar and wind are cheap, and Heat Pumps are getting better, and EVs are getting better and cheaper... I reject the idea that a green solution HAS to be more expensive than a fossil one.

The fossil cos have been feeding us that malarckey for decades, and saying being green is something for rich people to do. Not any more.

Find me a renewable energy system that can heat my house cheaper than natural gas can, I will buy it right now.