My Predictions

[elkimmeg]

The demand on inserts will equal or pass last year's run. Pellet supply and high pricing. will lessen the demand for pellet stoves

Coal stoves interest will increase in the Penn area or near the coal source. Corn / pellet might peak interest in the corn belt areas of our country. Economically corn is not priced for an option in the Northeast. Gas stoves will still maintain the same
market presence as last year

 

[webbie]

The demand on inserts will equal or pass last year's run. Pettet supply and high pricing. will lessen the demand for pellet stoves

Coal stoves interest will increase in the PEnn area or near the coal sourse. Corn / pellet might peak interest in the corn belt areas of our country. Ecomonically corn is not priced for an option in the Northeast. Gas stoves will still manitain the same
market presence as last year

Interesting that actual numbers and accurate pricing of certain fuels may not be what sways the market. After all, Natural gas has tanked big time, and at wholesale is by far the lowest price fuel available. Now if the utilities were just good enough to lower their price (I think they locked in a high prices and now we are sunk).

The biggest selling space heaters of all are electric ones - with the highest fuel cost! So there are a lot of factors driving the market.

It's always hard to put a finger on the industry because it is so regional. When I was in NJ and selling mostly wood, a trip up into NY State showed me they were all asking for Pellets - and right in the middle of the biggest forest on the entire Northeast! Why? well, turns out the local shops were spending a lot of money on advertising and billboards and really driving the market.

Head down south and you will find stores that don't even sell anything except gas - same for California.

Look at the difference in fuel prices...our local paper shows hardwood for $140 a cord - I could probably do better if I shopped around. Yet in the Pacific Northwest, hardwood is over $300 a cord. Natural gas is 1/2 the price there as in new england - again, I think because our utilities made a bad bet.

That is one thing I have learned about the industry - you can't stand in one place and see what is happening in another. Harman Stoves, for instance, was selling coal stoves back at a time when everyone else was making jokes about them - laughing at how ugly their stoves were and how stupid the customers must have been. Well, look at them now....building a 250,000 Sq. Ft addition to the factory complete with foundry and 10 laser cutters! Turns out they knew their market, which back then was only withing 300 miles of Central Pa.

The industry has vastly more capacity than during the last big runs. Customers also seem willing to spend big bucks on stoves and installations. This means you are likely to see good supply...although getting a particularly popular model without backorders might be tough.

Obviously, the best advice for anyone thinking of a stove is to go out and buy now. The actual big selling season starts in August and that is not too far away...and, with this weather (in the north), you might even get to burn it in June!

 

[stuart]

i agree pellet stove's will drop in sales due to high price and low supply

 

[begreen]

Last fall, the story was that there was an adequate supply of pellets, but the eastern pellet manufacturers were already committed to contracts for orders in Scandanavia. Was this just urban legend or is there some truth to this? What are the eastern pellet manufacturers doing different this year to meet the US demand? Any pellet makers on the board that can shed some light here?

 

[Shane]

I agree with Craig. If you're thinking of buying a stove get it now. And yes NG is a rather in expensive way to heat your hacienda, right now. NG has a magical knack for increasing in price around October. I say buy now for two reasons, 1.) supply is good any stove you want is easily obtained right now. 2.) Stove prices are climbing. 5-10% increase in March-May and now I just recieved a letter from one of my major manufacturers warning of another 3% as of July. Steel prices have done nothing but go up since 2003 and will continue. Most manufacturers offset their costs & lessen the impact of the price increases by raising price across the board even on cast products. Another factor that has increased consumer stove cost by about 10% is shipping cost. Last year at this time I was paying 45-55 to get a stove here from SLC or Denver now I am paying 65-100. Most manufacturers and distributors are suspending freight programs or greatly increasing cost. I used to be able to order a stove and have a hearth pad "thrown on the pallet" for no extra charge. Now I pay an increased freight program cost for the stove and full freight for the hearth pad. (Eg. Ordered an outdoor firepit, a small gas fireplace and a hearth pad the other day. Last year that would have cost me 90 to ship the whole thing. Now it costs me 165.
I agree with Elk in that pellet stoves will decline in popularity this year. I think wood will take over a percentage of my market but NG stoves will continue to sell well. Didn't sell alot of propane stoves last year but NG held fairly steady.

 

[ourhouse]

When I bought my new woodstove, the dealer was telling me that it was good I had bought that model and at that time because they had it in stock at the old price. Had I chosen a different model that wasn't in stock and they had to order it, the price would have been much higher because Quadrafire increased their prices. I asked them if it was that way across the board with the pellet stoves as well. And was told that yes, in fact they increased ALL of their prices and the pellet stoves were already flying off the shelves even at the higher prices.

 

[Eric Johnson]

The one pellet manufacturer I am aware of, New England Wood Pellet of Jaffrey, NH, is building a new plant in Skylar, New York that will double their production capacity. Other expansions are on the drawing board, as I understand it.

 

[MountainStoveGuy]

I local situation on pellet stoves, here in granola boulder colorado, alot of people buy pellet stoves because of the green aspects of burning pellets. If i can get stoves, i think i will sell them.

 

[stuart]

yes i agree with shane me owing a pellet stove it will help me if pellet sales drop ,that will mean i will have a abundt suppy of pellets if it goes that way

 

[begreen]

MSG, do you get any temperature inversions in the winter in the Boulder/Denver area? If yes, pellet stoves are a blessing. When we're in a bad lingering inversion, you can smell a woodstove a mile away. Not so with the pellet stove. If one is in an urban area, they can be a much more neighbor friendly stove.

 

[HarryBack]

I think its a fairly safe bet to say that pellet stove sales will decrease from last years' SUPER sales year, for whatever reason, be it Katrina, the high oil price, etc, alot of fence-sitters fell off the fence and bought last year. I still believe it'll be a good year for the pellet stoves as well. Im being stalled badly by the corn supply dilemma here in New England. Have been talking to a few customers tho, and as soon as they hear ANYTHING in bulk that needs to be screened, and hauled, and shoveled, and stowed, they seem to lose interest. Bagged corn is a maybe, but im not convinced its much of a better choice, given the possible rodent issue. Im sure in farm country, like the corn belt, corn is a great idea tho!

 

[tradergordo]

I'm sure you already know about it, but I really like the hearth.com fuel cost comparison calculator. You can plug in any numbers that apply to your local area to see how much every alternative would cost. You can even plug in different efficiency rates for each heating appliance.

If you are in the business, you could post a printout in your store or give copies to potential customers.