Check out battery longevity.
Businesses aren’t going to care about the longevity the same as a general consumer will. We can cycle through vehicles every couple years and raise costs to compensate for increased payments.
NY natural gas ban update
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Businesses aren’t going to care about the longevity the same as a general consumer will. We can cycle through vehicles every couple years and raise costs to compensate for increased payments.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
It’s a consumable, cheap one at that. Well not for a Sprinter. ECU must be reprogrammed when you replace the battery. If it were a hybrid it would just use the HV battery. There I solved it! Or just blast the AC all the time. Wear a coat in the winter. Or will cranking the defrost keep it running? Buy a better battery. I wonder how smart alternator charging is effecting batteries. It purposely keeps the battery in a not full state so when you let off the gas and coast it charges at maximum rate. Por mans regen breaking.
Car are not made to run 20 years. They are made to be cheap as possible and get the through the warranty period. Consumers won’t pay the premium for a vehicle that will last 200k+ and 20+ years.
Not everyone can afford a new car. Think back when you were young and just starting out.
When I first got out of college I was making low 20s, 6mo later I had a house pmt… there wasn’t a budget for a new car. 150k+ mile vehicles was all that was available. Then comes a wife and kids. Heck, my wife has had new cars, I’m 49 and still haven’t! I’ve bought them 1 year old, but I don’t want to take the depreciation hit. The last vehicles I bought, both on the same day, both a year old. It was when vehicles weren’t selling during the shutdown. 1 year old trucks, no money down, like 26k out the door, lol. Now 1 of those has aged out, I’m driving the other. I don’t want to spend 50k+ on a depreciating asset. I’ll have to though. Once the body control module fails in an older vehicle and they aren’t stocking them anymore, it’s done!
Meanwhile my business partner, 2020 Chevy truck with a turbo 4 bought new, dumps a quart of oil in it every week. Only around 120k miles on it. These vehicles aren’t meant to last. Correction, I am on the title to that truck, so I guess I bought that too, lol.
When I first got out of college I was making low 20s, 6mo later I had a house pmt… there wasn’t a budget for a new car. 150k+ mile vehicles was all that was available. Then comes a wife and kids. Heck, my wife has had new cars, I’m 49 and still haven’t! I’ve bought them 1 year old, but I don’t want to take the depreciation hit. The last vehicles I bought, both on the same day, both a year old. It was when vehicles weren’t selling during the shutdown. 1 year old trucks, no money down, like 26k out the door, lol. Now 1 of those has aged out, I’m driving the other. I don’t want to spend 50k+ on a depreciating asset. I’ll have to though. Once the body control module fails in an older vehicle and they aren’t stocking them anymore, it’s done!
Meanwhile my business partner, 2020 Chevy truck with a turbo 4 bought new, dumps a quart of oil in it every week. Only around 120k miles on it. These vehicles aren’t meant to last. Correction, I am on the title to that truck, so I guess I bought that too, lol.
I bought my EV 3 years old at 40% of MSRP. What is your point again? You hypothesize (without evidence) that start-stop cars will blow out their 12V systems in a few years, despite them being warrantied for longer than that.
I'm no expert, but I think turning over a warm engine filled with warm oil is **different** from turning over a cold engine that has had all the oil drain out. Both in terms of strain on the battery/starter and wear on the engine.
I'm no expert, but I think turning over a warm engine filled with warm oil is **different** from turning over a cold engine that has had all the oil drain out. Both in terms of strain on the battery/starter and wear on the engine.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
Saying you can’t fix a BEV is inaccurate. The reality is that outside of the hvac system (with seem quite robust) a drive unit swap, or a battery swap are quicker than an engine change. Throw away cars mean there are plenty of used parts in good condition available.
The BCM may not be stocked but I bet you can get a used one or even have it repaired. But again these are not quick repairs. Downtime is money.
What options do we have as consumers? I absolutely believe we can have low emissions vehicles that are well built. The average consumer who keeps vehicle 5 years or less won’t pay the premium for them. Think of big fleet customers. They are not keeping light duty vehicles past the warranty period.
Burnin Since 1991
Feeling the Heat
I am curious, as I don't know. How long does an EV motor last? How long do EV batteries last? Or how many miles? How much does it cost to replace the motor and batteries in an EV?
After the warranty period, someone else buys the vehicle. Namely guys like me that can't afford to buy a new vehicle for 45-75k depending on the vehicle (I'm talking about a replacement for my Tacoma, below)
I'm driving a 2006 Toyota Tacoma V6 4.0 engine, Double Cab SR5 4WD, with a cap over the bed, with 40k miles, that I bought in 2014. I am the second owner. I looked for a while for a vehicle with lower miles that I could still afford. This was the best deal I could afford and it still cost me near 23k.
Let's recap to here. 8 year old truck, now 19 years old.
Currently my truck sits at about 120k miles and except for routine maintenance, I've had no issues.
I'm going to ask my mechanic how much it would cost, including labor to either rebuild my 4.0 or replace with used or a crate motor.
I thankfully only see him sporadically so when I go in January for my oil change, state mandated inspection sticker and a tire rotation, I will find out and let you know.
I guess where I'm going is that after 20 years I'm still running a vehicle with the original engine and I could probably get a couple hundred thousand more miles without an engine replacement.
How long will the EV motor and batteries last and if one of the throw away EV's (or any EV) made it to 20 years, how many times would the batteries need to be replaced? What does it cost to replace the electric motor and batteries?
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He said "in my new house."
It makes me laugh that people are OK with gov't telling you that if you build a new home, you can't get options you want. Their argument is always "no one is forcing you" or "it's just a couple of appliances".....not realizing that they will start small and before you know it force you into other regulations.
The motors (except for rare cases of defective designs) last forever. An ICE engine that lasts 200k miles should really be said to last about 8000 hours (at typical average driving speeds). That is pretty short compared to a lot of things we buy (LED bulbs, HVAC equipment, refrigerators), bc of all the tight sliding seals that an ICE requires and combustion product acids that need to be washed out and pH buffered by that oil. How long does the electric motor on your fridge work... 20 years might be 80000 run hours, 10x that of an ICE engine.
In comparison, an EV motor has a single rotating part with a single speed gearbox, bathed in something very similar to transmission oil for cooling and lubrication. Roller bearings. No combustion products. No oil changes. It lasts as long as you would expect a well engineered single speed transmission to last. And a 200 hp motor is about the size of a breadbox. My car has two, one front and one back.
The battery, that is a work in progress. Everyone thinks they are an expert on batteries, bc the cheapo $30 battery in their phone lasts 2-3 years. But the answer is that most batteries have a cycle life (>1000 cycles) and a shelf life (variable), whichever comes first more or less.
Phone batteries get killed by cycle life... with big swings (0 - 100% charge) those cheap batteries can be beat by <1000 cycles (which is ~3 years)
In a BEV, a 1000 cycle life with a 250 mile range is 250,000 miles. With careful charging (20-90% most of the time) a battery has a 2000 cycle life, that is 500k miles.
Phone batteries also get killed by HEAT, living in a warm pocket, getting charged quickly on a hot charger, etc. And are NOT engineered for long shelf life (bc they cost $30). BEV batteries are engineered for longer shelf life, live outdoors and in cool garages most of the time, and have a huge AC hooked up to them to keep them cool.
We don't know how long they will last. I think most will last 15 years in good shape, many will last 20.
What does a battery cost? Currently from the factory bare OEM costs are about $6-8k, and still falling fast. The materials in them cost more <$2k, so that is what they will likely cost <$3-4k in 10+ years. Keep in mind that the REST of the BEV is much cheaper than an ICE car (no ICE engine, no trannie, no exhaust system, etc), so replacing the battery once in a 30 year lifetime you are still ahead of the game (it will be like replacing an engine after 200k miles, possible if you want).
Let's say US north of the Mason Dixon line.
My parents in FL kept their cars in an AC garage.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
Your 06 Taco is probably the apex of Toyota reliability. Change that oil every 5k and trans fluid every 40k (unless it’s a manual) it will last a really long time. EVs….. it’s hard to judge Teslas with 200k are regular but the battery and drive units had 8 year warranties it’s hard to say how many 100% original cars made it to 200k miles. Batteries changed technology too. It’s going to be normal for an LFP pack to go lots of miles. Their energy storage batteries charge and discharge fully at least once a day. Warranty is 10 years. Call that a conservative life of 600k miles.
Actual drive units, the motor and gear box, coolant leaks ruin a lot of them. They have improved that design.
It’s also hard to say how other manufacturers are doing. The sample size is small for cars over 5-10 years old. If you told me you want a used EV now under $20k I could only recommend and LFP Model 3. And basic rules of used cars apply don’t buy any 2021-2023 when covid messed everything up.
What will make used EV shopping difficult is the some battery cells for a given model year were better than others and multiple types could have been used. The buyer needs to know.
Can you buy a decent EV for 20k yes. I’d get a Bolt with some warranty left in a heartbeat. under 15k. But I probably wouldn’t hold onto it much past the battery warranty. My Tesla is out of warranty. I got the drive unit replaced a month before the warranty expired because it had a coolant intrusion. It was still running but eventually it would have corroded the rotor. It’s a common issue in Teslas large drive units.
The real issue now is finding an independent repair shop to service them. That will keep improving in time. Every totaled EV with an un damaged battery means more used batteries on thr markets.
Actual drive units, the motor and gear box, coolant leaks ruin a lot of them. They have improved that design.
It’s also hard to say how other manufacturers are doing. The sample size is small for cars over 5-10 years old. If you told me you want a used EV now under $20k I could only recommend and LFP Model 3. And basic rules of used cars apply don’t buy any 2021-2023 when covid messed everything up.
What will make used EV shopping difficult is the some battery cells for a given model year were better than others and multiple types could have been used. The buyer needs to know.
Can you buy a decent EV for 20k yes. I’d get a Bolt with some warranty left in a heartbeat. under 15k. But I probably wouldn’t hold onto it much past the battery warranty. My Tesla is out of warranty. I got the drive unit replaced a month before the warranty expired because it had a coolant intrusion. It was still running but eventually it would have corroded the rotor. It’s a common issue in Teslas large drive units.
The real issue now is finding an independent repair shop to service them. That will keep improving in time. Every totaled EV with an un damaged battery means more used batteries on thr markets.
I'm gonna disagree, and think you are Tesla-centric.
I got a VERY nice Tesla-class few year old EV for $28k. Bolts are under $20k, but a used Bolt at $18k and a used real EV for $10k more... the Bolt is a decent second car, and the other EV could be an 'only car'.
And I have not taken any of my EVs to a dealer in 10 years, always shade tree mechanics and tire shops only.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
I’m data limited. I know what I know. Teach me what I don’t.
What 5-10 year old EVs are one market besides Tesla that you would use to judge long term reliability from and recommend? I can’t recommend a used 5 year old plus Leaf as a first EV. Bolt maybe, as they recalled all the batteries. That’s it for options over 5 years old that I’m aware of. There are a lot of used options in that $25k+ range now.
The used market will see big changes in a year or two as all the EVs leased in 23-25 come off lease and maybe the new Bolt does well. I’d certainly get rid of my Tesla for one. We’re needing 6 seats less now the oldest is in high school.
Every year I call and call and nobody want to work on the X. I get it it’s low volume complicated vehicle. Most shops tell me they can’t get parts. Currently it’s in need of front struts and other suspension possibly steering related, charge port door, seatbelt work
Just to throw it out there, I can buy a new engine for my jeep for less than 3000. A new transmission is 2500. Those are prices for me to install them, but since it’s a straight 6, there’s plenty of room to do it. I don’t have any emissions equipment on it other than a PCV valve, so there isn’t much to disconnect. I imagine I could pull it out in a few hours.
I don’t see that happening with any new, non commercial vehicle.
I don’t see that happening with any new, non commercial vehicle.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
Battery longevity on modern EVs is quite good to excellent. For a used car it will depend somewhat on how the previous owner treated it. This can be tested before purchase.
This thread has drifted a long ways away from natural gas. Here's a graphic comparison of the resources necessary for renewables vs fossil fuels. Note the left side is on a 25 yr time scale and the right side pertaining to fossil fuels is for one year.
![[Hearth.com] NY natural gas ban update](https://www.hearth.com/talk/data/attachments/342/342569-03301365a0e91e3324e6a833a9a4b97a.jpg?hash=Qk_Uh2Uhyd "[Hearth.com] NY natural gas ban update")
I can't support an outright ban on gas in new construction unless something is done to make our electrical grid much more dependable. Outages in our area have become more common, and I don't see where this is likely to improve given current plans for data centers and high-level efforts to restrict the development of renewable energy sources.
On the other hand, I fully support restricting the use of ventless appliances such as gas stovetops and heaters. Carbon monoxide, benzene, and large volumes of water vapor have no place in a modern home. I've experienced firsthand the danger and effects of combustion byproducts released directly into our home. I was ignorant and put my family at risk.
I appreciate personal freedom, but sometimes we have a duty to protect consumers from their own ignorance. 'Common sense' is often not good enough, as this forum has taught me. Burning treated wood for indoor heating, running generators indoors, and tossing live wood stove ash outdoors come to mind.
On the other hand, I fully support restricting the use of ventless appliances such as gas stovetops and heaters. Carbon monoxide, benzene, and large volumes of water vapor have no place in a modern home. I've experienced firsthand the danger and effects of combustion byproducts released directly into our home. I was ignorant and put my family at risk.
I appreciate personal freedom, but sometimes we have a duty to protect consumers from their own ignorance. 'Common sense' is often not good enough, as this forum has taught me. Burning treated wood for indoor heating, running generators indoors, and tossing live wood stove ash outdoors come to mind.
Short answer. If the gas company spent a huge amount of money to run the gas main to the new apartment complex, and can never make that money from you (bc you ripped it out 3 years later), then that expense gets passed onto existing customer to pay!
Basically, the ban is saying that for the gas company to spend a pile of $$$ extending its leaky grid to new construction is likely a malinvestment. As in they will never clear enough profit on those new customers for long enough to recoup their investment. And since all utilities malinvestment losses get passed to customers... THEN the govt cares.
The graphic is misleading.
The amount of earth/rock that needs to be moved for mining and energy extraction are very different. For fossils, coal beds are dense, and oil and gas only require a drilled hole. Each mass of metal is present as a small fraction in a large volume/mass of ore.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
What evidence do you have that it is undependable? Large data centers will require reliable power. Unless they get priority status (which they might) I don’t think an ultimatum company could say yes we will have that capacity by then and let reliability drop.
My data points are Texas where lack of regulation led generating stations unable to operate at low temperatures that were predictable within the life time of that equipment based on climatology. During this time many natural gas customers we affected by low pressure due to increased demand. Then they lost power. Just because you haven’t experienced this doesn’t mean it is a not an issue. It must be supplied with some pump.
And California whose large scale deployment of solar and batteries has increased their reliability.
And North Carolina Christmas Day. 2023. Link here
Making sure infrastructure is capable of cold weather operation is not affected by demand changes. This a utilities obligation with oversight from regulators.
If I was in charge data centers would be on the top of load shedding list. With appropriate planing data loads could be shifted to other parts of the country.
