Oil Prices Now

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vinny11950

vinny11950

Minister of Fire
Hearth Supporter
May 17, 2010
1,798
Eastern Long Island, NY
As many of you probably noticed, yesterday oil prices took a dive. The below article has a good explanation on the geopolitical reasons of why that happened.

nationalinterest.org

The Great Oil War of 2020 Has Begun. Can Russia Win?

After the latest round of U.S. sanctions against Russia was signed into law last year, Russian president Vladimir Putin warned that Russia would retaliate at a time and place of its own choosing. Wrecking the OPEC-Plus arrangement and provoking a demolition-derby price war with Saudi Arabia may...
nationalinterest.org nationalinterest.org
 
There are lot of long term discussions that with AGW, the price of oil the commodity is on a long term downward trend. The world can not afford to tap the proven reserves without a major increase in atmospheric carbon so the oil will be taxed to the point where only the lowest cost producers can make a buck. Last thing I knew the gulf states can still produce for less than a buck a barrel, the rest of the cost is the cost to prop up their governments so the people do not riot. Sure the Russians can drive out short term oil production in the US but only in the short term, if the price goes up the rigs will go back out in the field it will just take a year or so.
 
peakbagger said:
There are lot of long term discussions that with AGW, the price of oil the commodity is on a long term downward trend. The world can not afford to tap the proven reserves without a major increase in atmospheric carbon so the oil will be taxed to the point where only the lowest cost producers can make a buck. Last thing I knew the gulf states can still produce for less than a buck a barrel, the rest of the cost is the cost to prop up their governments so the people do not riot. Sure the Russians can drive out short term oil production in the US but only in the short term, if the price goes up the rigs will go back out in the field it will just take a year or so.
Click to expand...

I am not sure the fracking rigs in the US will all come back when oil prices rebound. A lot of those companies are small with a lot of debt. Debt has made it possible for them to stay in business, but if the lenders begin to think oil is on a downward trend, then they may not want to invest/lend them money, or at least not lend money to some of them, which puts them out of business. The other option is for the majors to buy them up, but they are also having issues.

Like the article says, Russia is doing this to gain a strategic advantage over the US. However, if the global economy slows down too much, oil prices could keep going down to levels that even the Russians can't bear.
 
1.79 at Murphy USA in Nixa, Mo. America needs to invest heavily in all forms of renewables to negate Russian antics. Help people convert to electric, solar, wind etc and put gas in the rear view. Sadly lower gas prices are going to encourage the same old status quo I think. If the government would do more to help lower costs associated with solar installations and people buying evs it would go a long way to help the growth of business's in the field and help the movement spread. I'm just a dumb country boy so forgive me if I'm out of line and don't have a clue what I'm talking about but that's my belief.
 
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We could have put some stiff sanctions on the two bad players. In other times, congress would be demanding it.

Time to stop the corporate welfare subsidies for the fossil fuel industry to equalize the playing field and get renewables online.
 
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Well oil keeps taking the express elevator down. Now around $22.

I saw a headline of an oil deal breaking up because the investors were walking away.
 
They won't need subsidies soon, oil just keeps falling through the floor. Opec and Russia are going to produce as much as they want. I heard on NPR that OPEC can produce oil at $1/barrel before shipping costs, so they won't stop until everyone is bankrupt I guess. Things look pretty wild.
 
These times are going to be a milestone in human history. I hope most communities learn to be more resilient and greatly reduce dependencies on long supply lines.
 
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SpaceBus said:
They won't need subsidies soon, oil just keeps falling through the floor. Opec and Russia are going to produce as much as they want. I heard on NPR that OPEC can produce oil at $1/barrel before shipping costs, so they won't stop until everyone is bankrupt I guess. Things look pretty wild.
Click to expand...

Some of this has already begun, oil companies here have slashed billions of dollars in capital spending in the last week, most companies have seen their stock prices halve or worse. We sell WCS (Western Canadian Select) oil, today the price was about $11USD/barrel, no company in this area that I'm aware of can operate at those prices.

I work for a construction company that builds the oil and gas processing facilities for these oil companies. Today I was given notice that Monday would be my last day at work. Sad part is I am just one of tens of thousands that will be laid off up here in the coming months.
 
ABMax24 said:
Some of this has already begun, oil companies here have slashed billions of dollars in capital spending in the last week, most companies have seen their stock prices halve or worse. We sell WCS (Western Canadian Select) oil, today the price was about $11USD/barrel, no company in this area that I'm aware of can operate at those prices.

I work for a construction company that builds the oil and gas processing facilities for these oil companies. Today I was given notice that Monday would be my last day at work. Sad part is I am just one of tens of thousands that will be laid off up here in the coming months.
Click to expand...
It's going to be rough for a lot of industries. Very few sectors will make any money.
 
ABMax24 said:
Some of this has already begun, oil companies here have slashed billions of dollars in capital spending in the last week, most companies have seen their stock prices halve or worse. We sell WCS (Western Canadian Select) oil, today the price was about $11USD/barrel, no company in this area that I'm aware of can operate at those prices.

I work for a construction company that builds the oil and gas processing facilities for these oil companies. Today I was given notice that Monday would be my last day at work. Sad part is I am just one of tens of thousands that will be laid off up here in the coming months.
Click to expand...

Sorry you are getting laid off. All the best.
 
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ABMax24 said:
This is very true. My fear is the current economic downturn will make 2008 look like a small blip in comparison.
Click to expand...
There is a distinct possibility of this with world economies on the brink. I hope you can translate your construction experience into other gainful employment.
 
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begreen said:
There is a distinct possibility of this with world economies on the brink. I hope you can translate your construction experience into other gainful employment.
Click to expand...

I'm sure I'll find something, there are a few other competing companies out there with some work still. We are fairly prepared for this, this industry is cyclic by nature and we have planned our finances accordingly.
 
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ABMax24 said:
I'm sure I'll find something, there are a few other competing companies out there with some work still. We are fairly prepared for this, this industry is cyclic by nature and we have planned our finances accordingly.
Click to expand...


Very wise of you. You'd be amazed at those that work in cyclical industry and live paycheck to pay check.

Good luck to you and the family.
 
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vinny11950 said:
Crazy price action in the oil futures markets. Some contracts ending this week have gone negative. hmmm
Click to expand...
Super tanker pulls up to home of options holder:
Capt yells down from bridge: Where would you like me to unload your 100000 barrels?
Options holder: (silence with bulging eyes)
Capt yells down from bridge: And will that be cash or charge?

That's what I think when I hear the price of options going negative. ::-)
 
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I heard this morning on the radio that oil bounced off $12 a barrel today, but did not catch which market this was. The oil industry is tanking. It holds the majority of US corporate debt. Apparently the whole fracking industry is fueled by debt. Word is that banks are ready to foreclose some fields.
www.nytimes.com

Opinion | Coronavirus May Kill Our Fracking Fever Dream (Published 2020)

America’s energy independence was an illusion created by cheap debt. All that’s left to tally is the damage.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
Last edited:
begreen said:
I heard this morning on the radio that oil bounced off $12 a barrel today, but did not catch which market this was. The oil industry is tanking. It holds the majority of US corporate debt. Apparently the whole fracking industry is fueled by debt. Word is that banks are ready to foreclose some fields.
www.nytimes.com

Opinion | Coronavirus May Kill Our Fracking Fever Dream (Published 2020)

America’s energy independence was an illusion created by cheap debt. All that’s left to tally is the damage.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...
What will they do with the fields?
 
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