Our Stove Shop's Business Has Come To A Screeching Halt

[BrotherBart]

Was in the stove shop here to pick up something today and chat. Seems that here in early November when their stove business is usually booming it is totally dead.

One interesting thing was that back in early July a fellow had come down from Maine with a trailer and bought five Harman pellet stoves for five different people and hauled them back. Even after being told that warranty was out of the question. From Maine to Virginia is a real long drive for stoves. 700 miles one way.

 

[jtp10181]

We are hopping still. Lots of interest in gas, wood, and pellet. Interest in pellet is slowly increasing. Seems wood is about the same as last year for now, but we put in more wood units over the summer than we ever have.

 

[fossil]

It's interesting to contrast what you two describe. I've no idea what, if anything, to make of it, but I find it interesting. If that regional disparity persists, it'll be even more interesting. Rick

 

[WidowMaker]

It's no mystery, look at the price of crude...People are as concernrd (scared) as they were...

 

[Rockey]

Local stove shops here are bustling! They didn't even want to talk to me for a simple little wall thimble, except the busiest place of all which is a true mom and pop shop that cares.

 

[chad3]

And with the cost of oil coming down those people that were going to scramble to burn what ever they can get their hands of this year will again be paying for oil again.
Peters out with the decline. Good for me, not as good for the stove guys, saw guys, and wood guys.

 

[BJ64]

In NE Oklahoma LP gas has dropped 23 cents in the last 30 days from 2.25 to 2.02 per gallon. That is still expensive considering it is easy to use 100 gallons per month from December to March. I was using much more that that but my household crazyness is non typical.

There is no shortage of wood here yet I have not heard many chainsaws running. There is a good supply of stoves to buy, even some EPA exempt units for people with a limited budget. Still few are selling according to friends that work at TSC and other similar outlets.

Pellet stoves are moving and some folks are buying a pallet of pellets at a time. This leads me to think either the wives are being picky about having a smokey stove in the house or the men are getting lazy towards cutting wood. Go figure.

 

[bmwloco]

Just wait. Fuel prices are going to bounce, and bounce high.

Plan on the greedos in the oil and gas industry to try to take one big last haul before the next administration takes office.

I'd be willin' to lay wagers on it.

 

[BJ64]

Just wait. Fuel prices are going to bounce, and bounce high.

Plan on the greedos in the oil and gas industry to try to take one big last haul before the next administration takes office.

I'd be willin' to lay wagers on it.

I was putting gas in Deb's rover and was thinking the same thing.

 

[bren582]

Opec will cut production, Iran will flex its muscle in the staight of hormuz, Oil rigs will topple over in the gulf of mexico and a 100 other reasons I can think of to get us right back to $4 per gallon..

 

[chad3]

Agree, but those that are doing this as on "hey, I'm going to save money" will step down. It is work, even if you like it (I don't think of my time as cash and I spend a lot of time cutting and splitting). People other than us are going to weigh this different than most on here. Saw sales will go up, stove sales will go up, oil and gas prices will go up (all these are in moneys spent, not true dollars). After oil goes down, all others will go down as well. Those that truly burn will not be affected. We'll keep doing what we do and will keep saving cash.
It is a money balance. My cousin thinks that he works for his money so he will keep using the thermostat as money for him is better than work.
Hope that makes sense.
Chad

 

[pybyr]

Just wait. Fuel prices are going to bounce, and bounce high.

Plan on the greedos in the oil and gas industry to try to take one big last haul before the next administration takes office.

I'd be willin' to lay wagers on it.

OK, here we go with the launch of the "Hearth.com Boiler Room Oil Greed Futures Trading Exchange":

I'll wager the retail worth of a 30-rack of Pabst Blue Ribbon that the national average price of regular unleaded gas will be at least back over $3 a gallon before inauguration, and the retail worth of a 6 pack of microbrew that it will be over $3.50...

 

[spadafore]

As long as stocks stay in the basement so will the price of oil. The oil companies will still make theirs and then some. Hold on it's gonna get worse before better.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

It will get worse, but if OPEC cuts production too far they will shoot themselves in the other foot. They did the first time by putting the world into a recession with the cost of a barrel of oil. By trying to raise it back up they are only going to drag the recession out longer.

Matt

 

[woodconvert]

Interesting. I've not been to my stove shop in some time so I don't know how business is but I will say this....there is plenty of wood to purchase around here. I think the warm weather has made people put off getting their stash. I have noticed a lot of guys cutting wood (..for next year..I hope) but most of the local suppliers still have most if not all of their supply.

If money is tight odds are you are not going to spend it on big ticket items...i'd say a stove with all the fixin's and a supply of wood maybe would fall in that category.

 

[joustinghill]

At the absolutely outrageous prices being asked around here for a cord of "seasoned" wood ($300-$350), it's far cheaper to burn oil right now than to burn wood, unless you have a free/cheap source of wood.

I was going to pick up next year's wood soon-ish but I refuse to even consider it until the price of wood comes back in line with reality. Unfortunately I can't chop/split my own right at the moment.

 

[btj1031]

At the absolutely outrageous prices being asked around here for a cord of "seasoned" wood ($300-$350), it's far cheaper to burn oil right now than to burn wood, unless you have a free/cheap source of wood.

I was going to pick up next year's wood soon-ish but I refuse to even consider it until the price of wood comes back in line with reality. Unfortunately I can't chop/split my own right at the moment.

I can't quite figure out why the wood sellers in NH haven't come back down. Must be related to other aspects of the logging industry. I bought green last april for $160 when oil was ~$4.00 gal. Now oil is way lower and you still can't get green wood for under $200 delivered....which is odd since anyone buying green now should be using it next winter.

 

[d.n.f.]

Do you guys know that OPEC has very little pricing power these days due to non-compliance members and exporting countries with huge reserves that do not belong to OPEC?
Did you know Canada supplies more oil to the US than Saudia Arabia?

What OPEC says and does is not taken too seriously by the markets these days.

 

[daveswoodhauler]

Do you guys know that OPEC has very little pricing power these days due to non-compliance members and exporting countries with huge reserves that do not belong to OPEC?
Did you know Canada supplies more oil to the US than Saudia Arabia?

What OPEC says and does is not taken too seriously by the markets these days.

I was surprised when I read this same a few months back. It was a pretty good spreadheet (wish I still had it)...showed each country and where we get our oil from....Canada was number one.....funny, always hear politicians/press bitching about OPEC and Middle East Oil.....never here them say anything about that "Canadian Oil" though.

Opps, gotta run...I hear Sonny BC around the corner

 

[webbie]

Stove shops will, IMHO, have a difficult year in 2009.

There is no money out there, and oil is likely to stay cheap because of that. Two strikes! Add in the high cost of pellets, biobricks and cord wood, and we are likely to see a big decline.
Of course, this is regional in nature - the folks who are really good at the business end will easily survive and possibly even prosper.

 

[BrotherBart]

The interesting thing with stove sales being slower than normal here is that very little oil is used for home heating around here. This time of year people are usually buying stoves just because this is the time of year that they buy stoves.

The press about long lead times and stove shortages may just be keeping them out of the market. And as Craig said, lack of money to spend on them.

 

[BJN644]

Wood prices are crazy around here, I've been trying to find a deal on a truck load of tree lenght firewood. The best I have found so far is $130 a cord. One year ago it was $90 a cord and diesel fuel is getting cheaper by the day. At these prices for firewood and with heating oil getting close to $2.50 a gallon the thermostat is going to start looking good again for many.

 

[fossil]

...I'll wager the retail worth of a 30-rack of Pabst Blue Ribbon...

Whoa...don't stick your neck out! %-P Rick

 

[InTheRockies]

Well, it's not just the stove shops that are hurting. There's an interesting article in today's NY Times about the precipitous plunge in consumer spending in October. Almost all retailers reported significant drops in consumer spending--we're talking double digit percentages. Consumer confidence is tapped out due to multiple factors that we're all too painfully familiar with--the impact of high inflation on food and energy prices (OPEC and commodities markets bear blame--OPEC wrongly assumed that a failing US economy wouldn't impact the world economy, ignoring the fact that booming Asian markets were mainly selling goods to US consumers since the EU import laws aren't quit as open as ours), the deflating housing bubble; very high job losses. I think there's a real chance we're going to see another phenomenon that we haven't experienced since the oil embargo of the 70's--stagflation, where you have the presence of inflation (I'm talking real inflation that factors in energy and food prices, not the term "core inflation" that was developed by the Nixon administration to artificially keep the calculation of the CPI low so annual cost-of-living increases to entitlement programs could be reigned in), high unemployment, and slow economic growth. I worry that OPEC's influence will expand, not contract. Russia is clearly making overtures to march in lock step with respect to quotas. Clearly, economic woes will reduce demand and have an impact on oil producers' efforts to control the market, but they can keep inflation too high. I wish Americans would give some thought to the national security implications of the fact that 75% of our GDP is now comprised of consumer spending. It reflects a reality that politicians from both sides of the isle don't want to admit--that over the past several decades they have catered to the wishes of multi-national corporations and have allowed them to move our manufacturing base (and more importantly, well-paying jobs) overseas. God help us if there's another big war, especially one involving China. We don't have the cash (and might not have the time) to build new factories.

 

[bmwloco]

I sell VWs. "TDI" Diesel demand has been high. Up until about 3 months ago, anyone wanting a diesel would buy a used one before the engine cooled off.

The last week has been DOA dead. We have several TDI sitting. Great rates, low miles and no buyers.

At least I have plenty of firewood, a stocked fridge, and enough bambi's running around if the need arises.