In my case, the PA resource is pretty good, say >1200 hours of peak output per year (for PV). During the 5 mos where I need real heating, I might have 400 hours of peak output resource. For PV, those partly cloudy and hazy days still contribute to those 400 hours. For thermal, a 50% cloud cover will hurt the eff a lot, so I will get less than 50% rated heat out. On the other hand, during a lot of that time, my outdoor temps are higher than Gary's, then my eff might be a tad higher.
So, if I assume I still get 400 hours of peak output per heating season, then that is 1.575 kW * 400 hours * 3414 BTU/kWh = 2 Million BTU/season.
My wind-powered BTUs from my heat pump cost me ~$15 /MMBTU (an estimate, they will be more expensive on colder cloudy days and at night), so a 4'x8' would save me ~$30/yr, for a 7 year payback at a $200 upfront cost (costing my 'hobby' labor at $0). The panel would offset 3% of my ~65 MMBTU annual heating load, or save me 1/10th cord of wood equivalent.
In contrast, a few weekends with $300 of weatherstripping, caulk and foamboard netted me a reduction of ~30 MMBTU/season, 15x what I would get from building a panel, and with a 150% annual ROI (on material cost).
Hi,
There is the common advice to work on the basics like insulation and sealing and you will get the greatest return, and I tell people the same thing all the time.
But, I've kept track of all the projects we have done around the house to save energy and estimated cost, energy saving, carbon saving, and return on investment (ROI) on each one -- they are all listed here:
http://www.builditsolar.com/References/Half/ProjectCharts.htm
The last chart is the ROI one.
Each project and the calculations are described here:
http://www.builditsolar.com/References/Half/Projects.htm
I'll be the first to admit that some of these energy and cost calculations are very hard to do accurately, but I decided I would attempt a calculation for every project.
If you look at the ROIs for the different projects, the insulation ones do generally do well, but some of the DIY solar thermal projects do as well or better. And, some of the oddball ones like the electric mattress pad heaters do even better.
The message for me is that nothing is cast in concrete, you have to try to estimate the cost and saving for each project and let stand on its own merits -- you might be surprised.
Some insulation projects can be quite expensive depending on what the current insulation level is and how hard it is to add more. We are having our roof redone, and part of the house has a cathedral ceiling that is hard to add insulation to except on top of the roof deck before the new shingles go on. The current ceiling is insulted to R38 with FG, and I was just not able to make adding insulation on top the roof deck pay at all.
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I'll see if I can find a more accurate way of estimating the seasonal heat output of the air collector -- I think you may be on the low side.
One rule of thumb that is rough, but is used a lot is 1 gallon of oil per sqft of collector. That would give about 4.5 million BTU per year for a 32 sqft collector.
For $2 propane (which is what we use) in an 80% efficient furnace, this would be $130 a year for a 1.5 year payback -- not counting any state rebates. The MT $1000 tax credit would actually pay for 5 collectors.
Agree that one 4 by 8 collector is not going to revolutionize anyone's heating bill in a cold climate. More area is definitely better, and its easy to build bigger -- south walls are made for space heating collectors.
Not sure how low the sun gets under cloudy conditions (probably varies a lot), but at half sun (500 w/sm) with 40F ambient and 100F collector outlet temperature, a well designed collector will still have about 40% efficiency -- still pretty good. But, I suspect that cloudy days are typically well under the 500 w/sm.
http://www.builditsolar.com/References/Calculators/Collector/ColEfic.htm
When I look at the power output on my Enpase PV system, the output on cloudy days is pretty bad. It does still produce a little power, but my impression just looking at the graphs is that the bulk of our PV power comes from sunny days. I wish I had saved some of the winter graphs, but did not. The next time we get an honest cloudy day, I'll keep track of it.
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My reservation about heat pumps is that for most people with typical fossil fuel generated electricity the carbon emissions including generation are about the same as if you heat with natural gas in an efficient furnace. To me the carbon emissions are as important as reducing costs.
In MT, each KWH comes with a 1.6 lbs of CO2 emissions even with some hydro and wind in our power mix.
There is also the eventual compressor replacement cost.
It looks like you have (or buy?) wind power, so the carbon is not an issue for you.
Also possible to put in enough PV to run the heat pump, but, to me, that seems like a lot of cost and complication compared to a simple solar thermal system.
Lots of trades to consider.
Gary