I wrote this in Dec 2006 to our children. Disregard the focus only on oil (although it may be true, we face many other challenges of equal importance and with probable similar effect). This lays out a change very consistent with "10 acres is enough."
This is not the usual e-mail. I don't regard this as silly. If as you read this you think I am being too dark or dismal, skip to the last paragraph and then go back and finish reading what I have to say.
A couple of weeks ago I attended a conference on "green" design sponsored by two Minnesota quasi-governmental agencies. I was particularly challenged by the topic presented by luncheon speaker, James Howard Kunstler, who presented a petroleum-depletion paradigm (along with other issues) which is not only plausible but also probable, in my opinion. I also ordered and now have read one of his books, "The Long Emergency." I will be very brief on the paradigm laid out by Mr. Kuntsler. I find his paradigm to be more probable than not, at least sufficient to begin now to develop a plan to "hedge" the future. Everything that follows is greatly simplified. I encourage you to read the book if this intrigues you.
His chief thesis is that the world now is or very soon will be at the "petroleum peak," defined as the point at which one-half of world oil reserves will bave been depleted. While one-half yet remains, the key fact is that the first one-half represented the cheap, easy to extract, and high quaility petroleum and natural gas, while the second one-half is just the opposite on a cascading scale of rising extraction cost and diminishing quality. He then argues that the world has no viable, economical energy replacement. Nuclear power represents the best option, but the United States is woefully behind in development of this option, and nuclear/electric power will not meet every energy need. Other energy options, such as hydrogen, solar, and biomass, are either petroleum dependent for their production, technologially illusory and extremely costly, and/or cannot provide sufficient energy to replace petroleum. Coal is a viable option for some energy needs, but the environmental cost will be great, available supplies may be exaggerated, and distribution limitations will not make coal a viable option at all locations.
While the play-out of the oil depletion paradigm is complex, suffice it to say that the results will include 1) the substantial end of automobile transportation (due to lack of fuel), 2) great down-sizing of nearly all industries (with consequent loss of employment) due to their oil dependence, 3) collapse of suburban and sprawled develoment, which depend upon the auto for their existence, 4) collapse of large cities because little productive work can be maintained in these cities without a petroleum based economy, 5) collapse of the financial markets (which may be the first to occur as the prospect of wealth loss appears likely), and 6) great social upheaval.
He argues that future life (future begining now and probably fully realized within about 15 years) will nead to be based upon small, largely self-sufficient and sustainable communities with these attributes: 1) located on or very near to current or potential hydroelectric waterways (a source of power), 2) located on or very near to rail and/or barge/ship waterway infrastructure (source of needed supplies and using petroleum/coal efficiently), 3) located near productive agricultural lands (souce of food), and 4) currently vital with small businesses able to meet essential needs and provide community support (and not likely to be sites of big box development such as Target, Walmart, Home Depot, etc.). Essentially, this is the picture of America before the mid-1950's.
Things I have tentatively concluded and would encourage you to think about and act on, at least as a hedge of the future:
1) Gain productive skills, trades, crafts which can provide a livlihood and assist in providing for your families in an oil-depleted future. In this regard, recreation and entertainment based industries may not have much of a future; medicine seems likely to have a future, but the drug and medical technology industries are very petroleum intensive, so "family practice" or nursing type medicine skills may have the best future; and most education-intensive and service-type professions do not have much of a future. Employment which will have a future will be that which truly is productive (converting a resource into a usable and needed product or maintaining a needed product).
2) Locate or plan now for living arrangements compatible with the preferred community description above. There is a high probability of suburbia collapse, collapse of large portions of the housing market, and consequent loss of value of suburban homes. We may be seeing the start of this now. When maintaining a suburban existence, renting would be better than owning, and keeping a high mortgage balance would be better than accelerating payments to build an equity which may disappear (use available funds to finance the hedge). A rented home may be easily left, and a high mortgage/leveraged home may be abandoned to foreclosure with minimal loss.
3) Move investment possibilities away from stocks, bonds, and probably even bank accounts (social upheaval may mimic the financial collapse of 1929 and loss of bank deposit assets). Consider agriculturally productive land or possibly forest productive land; a small, economical home in a small community of the type described above (rent out now and move in when needed); a small production business of a highly needed, basic product and which has good possibility of nearby available resources to maintain production in the face of supply disruption; other resource-based, hard assets (coal, lignite, peat, as energy sources, and essential minerals).
Things I would encourage you to avoid or resist include: Any further suburbanization of your lifestyle. Risk of loss is high and probability of risk realizaiton is high.
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