The cost of renewables drops again

[begreen]

"The cost of renewable energy has tumbled even further over the past year, to the point where almost every source of green energy can now compete on cost with oil, coal and gas-fired power plants, according to new data released today."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2019/05/29/renewable-energy-costs-tumble/
Note that this is on a global basis.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Excellent! Since everything is level cost, we can get rid of all subsidies on petroleum and solar/wind/hydro, etc. Make it all equal!

 

[begreen]

Yes, right now we have climate change denial funded by our tax dollars via subsidies at about $21B a year. Globally these subsidies are estimated at $750B to $1Trillion. We are going backwards in spite of a glut of fuel and gas.

If this money was instead put into energy efficiency improvements, building retrofits and grid infrastructure updates we would be much farther ahead. The G20 recognized this in 2009 and committed to removing fossil fuel subsidies by 2020. The G7 committed to 2025 in 2016. Now the US is leading a charge in the reverse direction. But recently we have not been honoring commitments. Short term gain for long term pain.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

The free market will act on its own as renewable prices come down. Lots of money flying around out there looking for good investments. Without Govt interference and Govt subsidies. The Govt will only make things worse. AKA student loans ,healthcare,housing ect ect.

 

[semipro]

If this money was instead put into energy efficiency improvements, building retrofits and grid infrastructure updates we would be much farther ahead.

Those grid improvements should include storage since short term power storage is still a major impediment to RE reliability.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

Excellent! Since everything is level cost, we can get rid of all subsidies on petroleum and solar/wind/hydro, etc. Make it all equal!

Those grid improvements should include storage since short term power storage is still a major impediment to RE reliability.

Our Local power Co PPL is running commercials touting their new storage capabilities to do just that, improve grid reliability especially in area with frequent power outages. More of this to come with battery improvements.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

This should be interesting to follow the next few years?https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060616261

Too fast? From the article,"The bill would also require that all electricity generation come from carbon-free sources by 2040. A Climate Action Council would be established to ensure the state meets its targets."

For those folks that will be around come 2040, it should be an interesting time gauging success or failure.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Lol. It's Cuomo and his aspirations to become President. Other than his ability to pass a budget on time, he's a joke. He is fully aware that he won't be around to measure success on this, but will tout his achievement.

 

[peakbagger]

Storage generally takes care of hourly and daily demand variation like the infamous "duck curve" but unless its ponded hydro, not much can deal with weekly and seasonal variation. New England has two peaks, a winter peak and a summer peak. The summer peak usually is when its sunny with a temperature differential between the ocean and the land which normally leads to a fairly reliable off shore wind so an ideal system that is onshore PV and offshore wind along with a big extension cord run 1000 miles north to the Hydro Quebec dams (expanded substantially). This possible scenario can work in summer, unfortunately the winter peak is lot more problematical. The vast amount of PV generation is fixed mount shallow angle as the incentives are tied to installed KW not optimum production when needed. It also snows on occasion and in general New England tends to get long stretches of no sun in the winter. Off shore wind is less reliable as there are more winter storms and contrary to popular belief, wind farms do not deal well with high winds as the high winds usually come with lot of turbulence. On shore wind in the region is also not a great contributor as its also highly variable due to high winds, turbulence and icing restrictions. (many local wind farms have to shut down during icing conditions as they can throw large blocks of ice long distances if the conditions are right). Hydro Quebec can help but iced up lakes have to be pulled down very slowly or the rivers and turbines get clogged with ice blocks. About the only thing that works is base loading the grid with fossil, nuclear or to a small extent biomass when the weather gets cold. Storage can help out on the daily peaks to stretch out the load but barring new technology that can cost effectively store large blocks of renewable power for weeks if not months winter peaks are a problem that still has no good solution for long term storage of power that doesn't involve fossil.

The other big issue is one region of the country ends up at major economic disadvantage if that region bites the bullet and go for a "clean grid". Look at regions with clean gird aspirations and inevitably the power rates are high. One of the big drivers for businesses moving into or out of a region is cheap power and cheap dispatchable power is still fossil. The Clean Power Plan attempted to correct this imbalance in the US but even if it still existed, it doesn't do away with the worldwide imbalance. Things like steel and aluminum production goes to places where power is cheap and cheap power is usually mine mouth coal burned with little or no environmental regulations.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

From what i've read , it passed. A note of support from a higher legislator,https://www.politico.com/states/new...gressive-new-york-climate-change-bill-1025380 .
From my seat this will be fun to watch. Hope they are right, really hope they get it done without screwing up their state

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/...rgy-climate-targets-net-zero-oregon-cap-trade

 

[EatenByLimestone]

So, with a trend of higher energy consumption every year, how is NY going to replace roughly a third of its demanded power?

I have full faith they will cut energy consumption by increasing taxes and fees to the point people sit around in the dark. The median income for my county is $44k for a family of 4. How do they pay for food? Electricity? Heat in the winter? Most likely they are on some sort of assistance. If they planned to cut consumption by insulating these houses, I'd be all for it. I doubt they're going to do that though.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

This will all take care of itself as renewables close in on the cost of non renewables. Where theres money to be made the private sector will jump in and do the job efficiently,effectively and under budget, that Govt so pitifully can not do with any kind of efficiency anyway. Better if they just let the experts handle it. Last time i did a cost per million BTUs, heat pumps are getting so effecient they are already close if not on par with creating home heat with a coal stove. LED lighting keeps improving as well.

 

[SpaceBus]

So, with a trend of higher energy consumption every year, how is NY going to replace roughly a third of its demanded power?

I have full faith they will cut energy consumption by increasing taxes and fees to the point people sit around in the dark. The median income for my county is $44k for a family of 4. How do they pay for food? Electricity? Heat in the winter? Most likely they are on some sort of assistance. If they planned to cut consumption by insulating these houses, I'd be all for it. I doubt they're going to do that though.

You bring up a good point. The best way to spend the money would be in insulation and making structures more energy efficient in the first place. I think somewhere I read that for every one dollar spent on conservation six dollars are saved in the future. While I have no idea how accurate that is, I'm sure it still saves more energy to increase efficiency rather than increase production.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I wholeheartedly believe that number. In fact, depending on how it's spent on conservation, I'd bet it's conservative.

Again insulation... we just tore out 2700 sq ft of attic insulation for a customer who had raccoons living up there for years. We gave them the name of an insulation company to reinsulate that we often work with. They can do it way cheaper than we can. The company quoted $2900. I'm not sure how deep they wanted, but I'm sure they want it over the 2x12 joists, and for $1.07/sqft, that's a bargain!

That insulation will work summer and winter. Less AC, and heat, for the rest of that houses life. Maybe 100+ years.

Depending on how much thought you want to put into it, you can keep adding to savings. How much is saved in healthcare in a house kept at a comfortable temperature? We hear every summer and winter to check on the elderly not heating or cooling their house. A single ambulense ride/hospital visit costs more than that insulation.

Fire protection. Fire is going to have a harder time traveling through dense pack cellulose than an open stud bay. Lives saved? Less fire damage for insurance to pay for? Lower rates?

It's hard to quantify the savings.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

This will all take care of itself as renewables close in on the cost of non renewables. Where theres money to be made the private sector will jump in and do the job efficiently,effectively and under budget, that Govt so pitifully can not do with any kind of efficiency anyway. Better if they just let the experts handle it. Last time i did a cost per million BTUs, heat pumps are getting so effecient they are already close if not on par with creating home heat with a coal stove. LED lighting keeps improving as well.

I agree with this too! The private sector is built on the idea they can do a better job at a better value than that other guy.

 

[begreen]

This will all take care of itself as renewables close in on the cost of non renewables. Where theres money to be made the private sector will jump in and do the job efficiently,effectively and under budget, that Govt so pitifully can not do with any kind of efficiency anyway. Better if they just let the experts handle it. Last time i did a cost per million BTUs, heat pumps are getting so effecient they are already close if not on par with creating home heat with a coal stove. LED lighting keeps improving as well.

Except that the private sector is getting the biggest handout. The playing field is not even as long as the fossil fuel industry is heavily subsidized to the tune of about $20B/year. We're currently short-changing taxpayers while making oil and coal execs rich.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

So cut the subsidies, but make sure you cut them for renewables too.

 

[begreen]

So cut the subsidies, but make sure you cut them for renewables too.

Not the best plan when we want to accelerate their use and wean the country off of fossil fuels. This is not teat for tat, we need to shift gears dramatically.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

You just want to cut fossil subsidies but not renewable subsidies?


Isn't that the same system of govt telling the masses to shut up and eat their govt grown peas?

It's just the other way around.

That's not any better.

If the system is broken fix the system.

 

[begreen]

I might have agreed with that premise 20 yrs. ago, but now we are out of time. We need to transition rapidly away from our fossil fuel dependencies. This means boosting non-carbon producing energies like renewables and nuclear while cutting consumption.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Why are we out of time?

 

[Doug MacIVER]

BG explain the "quote subsidies", what is then the dif between the subs they get and my corp. gets? My corp. is subsidized, would not be here today if was not. The energy sector gets tax breaks the same as autos, hvy. equip.ect. If your are confused by the terminology, "depletion= reduction in inventory?(you know that). Special rules for corps.= jobs? The profit they make is well self explanatory.( love tweeter saves time for someone who hates to type}. if you think the bennies for Gas &oil are unfair to RN, use your knowledge and convince the non-believers.

I'll post this , even though you will find this author has an agenda?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/drilli...about-federal-oil-gas-subsidies/#381cfba16e1c. Oh geez, Forbes,used to be a registered Rep. in one of the 50 states!

 

[begreen]

Why are we out of time?

It will take time to segway away from a fossil fuel based economy. Estimates have been to 2050. This timeline has been based on certain assumptions that we have not stuck with. For example, global emissions of greenhouse gases are increasing, not leveling off. And apparently, we have been too conservative in estimating the rate of change in planetary systems.
https://www.iflscience.com/environm...ada-is-thawing-70-years-earlier-than-expected
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/449487-himalayan-glacier-melting-has-doubled-in-the-last-two-decades
It's the little things we are not paying enough attention to:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-019-0222-5

 

[bholler]

BG explain the "quote subsidies", what is then the dif between the subs they get and my corp. gets? My corp. is subsidized, would not be here today if was not. The energy sector gets tax breaks the same as autos, hvy. equip.ect. If your are confused by the terminology, "depletion= reduction in inventory?(you know that). Special rules for corps.= jobs? The profit they make is well self explanatory.( love tweeter saves time for someone who hates to type}. if you think the bennies for Gas &oil are unfair to RN, use your knowledge and convince the non-believers.

I'll post this , even though you will find this author has an agenda?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/drilli...about-federal-oil-gas-subsidies/#381cfba16e1c. Oh geez, Forbes,used to be a registered Rep. in one of the 50 states!

Why am i paying to keep your corporation afloat? I am fine with offering help to get startups etc off the ground to stimulate economic growth. But if a company needs constant govt subsidies to survive maybe it shouldn't survive.

Why are we giving tax breaks etc to companies like those in the oil and gas industry that are extremely profitable? It makes no sense at all.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

Why am i paying to keep your corporation afloat? I am fine with offering help to get startups etc off the ground to stimulate economic growth. But if a company needs constant govt subsidies to survive maybe it shouldn't survive.

Why are we giving tax breaks etc to companies like those in the oil and gas industry that are extremely profitable? It makes no sense at all.

Your questions runs the full gamut of business. From the little one man real estate office to a huge pharm operation. I would hate to rely on start ups for economic growth alone. The tax laws allow for recovery of capital for reinvestment promoting economic growth from all.

Sounds as though you would prefer a whole new Corp. tax system.

Here is an example that will really give you worms. Say your company has a customer that goes bankrupt. That company sticks you for $ 150k. The US gov't will reimburse your taxes going back 7 years. Why? The US Gov't considers Corp taxes a loan. My personal experience here is getting taxes back with a 70k loss in 1969 and a 95k loss in 1993. A corporation is also allowed the defer taxes with losses carrying forward. Those reimbursements allowed us to continue and start contributing back to the economy. My company is just one small example, I would bet it is one of tens of thousands.