Ashful
Minister of Fire
Are you sure about this? I assume the published recovered number was an estimate of confirmed cases minus deaths on a two week delay.
Corona Virus
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Medic21
Minister of Fire
My wife had read about the type A blood as well. The other thing she is hearing is not many people placed on a vent are recovering. The vents are delaying. A good friend of mines 64 year old brother has just passed from C19. He was relatively healthy , nothing overweight, slight diabetes (pill and diet control) He returned from Mexico holiday March 6th, put on a ventilator March 12th, passed today March 30. His wife and a nephew have it as well, showing little symptoms.
I also have a 68yr aunt who has a presumed case, recovering at home with brutal symptoms. The hospital asked her to go home and self isolate, and return if she came to the point she couldn't say 4 words consecutively. She has been 2 weeks at home and starting to feel better.
I also have a 68yr aunt who has a presumed case, recovering at home with brutal symptoms. The hospital asked her to go home and self isolate, and return if she came to the point she couldn't say 4 words consecutively. She has been 2 weeks at home and starting to feel better.
Medic21
Minister of Fire
Sorry for your loss.
any viral pneumonia is brutal. The good thing is it’s not very common normally. I’ve had many many intubated transfers over the years with viral pneumonia and we have taken these PPE precautions for all of them. It’s very scary stuff.
In England, the Telegraph is reporting that one quarter of their doctors are infected.
Yes, that came out of post-infection research in China. I think I posted about this early on in this thread. And yes, my whole family is type A neg.
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AlbergSteve
Minister of Fire
Just spoke to a friend of mine who's an RT at our local hospital. Said it was eerily quiet in emerg and ambulatory care. It serves about 85k people and there's no one there. MIL going in for emergency surgery this morning too.
Medic21
Minister of Fire
EMS runs are way down right now. There are services in the US that are giving pay cuts and layoffs because run volume is so low revenue is not coming in.
Sounds like an Italian doctor's description of the calm before the storm. They too were wondering if they had overreacted. A week later they were completely overwhelmed. Get rest now while you can.
Medic21
Minister of Fire
That’s our thought right now. But, our thoughts are also we will transport these pts from facility to facility more than see them on 911.
Helpful lesson from an old Mythbusters episode for this time.
This is a longish, but very informative family zoomchat with a NYC pulmonary doctor telling his family what to do regarding Covid-19. Good info! The second part is Q&A
Today's update from our community situation awareness team:
- Public Health Seattle King County reports as of March 30th that there are 2,330 confirmed COVID-19 cases, this is an increase of 502 from Friday and represents 13.3% of the 17,465 county-wide tests reported. There have been a total of 149 reported deaths in King County, an increase of 24 from Friday and represents 6.4% of the positive tests.
- Washington State Department of Health reports that as of 11:59 pm March 29th, 93% of tests statewide have been negative for the virus (total of 60,566 negatives), there are 4,896 positive tests statewide. There have been a statewide total 195 deaths, 4% of the positive cases.
Ashful
Minister of Fire
Sad news. But again, publishing deaths as a fractional amount of people who may have tested positive as recently as this weekend really means nothing in relation to the fatality of this disease, when the median time from contraction to death is still listed as 14 days. Why even bother giving a percentage of deaths to total cases? It gives people the wrong impression, as if 94% to 96% of those tested had positive outcomes, which is not true.
Sawset
Minister of Fire
One of our manufacturing plants here was closed last night after "an employee had contact outside of work with an individual that tested positive for Covid 19. A professional service was contracted to clean and disinfect the facility". 2nd shift sent home, 3rd shift cancelled, reopened this morning.
Hmm, and this is SE WI, kind of a minimal area so far. But we only have 8 cases here - very few are testing, that's what the case is.
Hmm, and this is SE WI, kind of a minimal area so far. But we only have 8 cases here - very few are testing, that's what the case is.
Sawset
Minister of Fire
A visual guide to the plagues of history:
www.visualcapitalist.com
Visualizing the History of Pandemics
The history of pandemics, from the Antonine Plague to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) event, ranked by their impact on human life.
www.visualcapitalist.com
Not sure what will evolve here, but in Europe many deaths in nursing homes are not being evaluated or counted for Covid-19.
Nursing homes have too few body bags, many uncounted dead
PARIS (AP) — One by one, elderly residents of French nursing homes are going into forced isolation into their rooms. Their caregivers are walling themselves in as well.
apnews.com
One distortion of this kind of illustration is that it does not represent the mortalities as a percent of the population. There's a big difference between a pandemic that wipes out 25% of humanity and 3% even though the body count is the same. The Justinian plague wiped out ~40-50 million out of a world population estimate of 200 million at that time. According to the graph the Spanish Flu wiped out 40-50 million at a time when the world population was 1.8 billion.A visual guide to the plagues of history:
Visualizing the History of Pandemics
The history of pandemics, from the Antonine Plague to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) event, ranked by their impact on human life.
All data for Covid-19 is preliminary. It's a work in progress.
PS: One major thing missing is the incredibly large number of people that died in the new world as a result of exposure to Eurasian diseases. They caused the deaths of an estimated 30-45 million native people in North and South America or more. The actual number is unknown because the sizes of native populations were grossly underestimated in many cases.
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No doubt. That black death was probably a huge percentage of humanity. As terrible as this is and we still have a long way to go, we are still way under 1%... How long before we will know how effective the isolation is being? I've heard that this won't peak in WI until late April or even May... It seems like reported cases are slowing, but who knows how much testing is being done here. I assume most test kits are going to the hardest hit areas.
Ashful
Minister of Fire
The good news is the number of critical cases to total cases is only 3900/167k = 2.3%, which will put a heck of a dent in the current 3400/9700 = 35% mortality rate of completed cases in the US.
Our understanding of the bubonic plague is rapidly changing in recent years, due to many scientific and archeological advancements. It appears the former estimates of 50% - 66% of the population were low. In all places where data exists, the number is higher. In fact, it can be said as a general rule that the better the quality of the data from a given town, the higher the number. The most accurate local records mostly put the deaths above 70% of the population.
With good social distancing the tested cases will slow down, but not the numbers. It helps reduce the spike and spreads the numbers over a longer period of time. So far there is no evidence to support the hope that this will decline with warmer weather. Unlike the Spanish flu which was an influenza virus, Covid-19 is a SARS type coronavirus and more like the common cold virus.
As NYC Nears 1,000 COVID-19 Deaths, How Does Pandemic Compare to Typical Flu Season?
Over the course of just 31 days, COVID-19 killed more than 1,500 people in the tri-state, the vast majority of which were in New York, and has proven thus far to be deadlier than the seasonal flu
www.nbcnewyork.com
Sawset
Minister of Fire
Ashful
Minister of Fire
You can say that, again.
I went back to fix one of my sentences, but the forum no longer allows edits past two hours. I should have said that new information shows the death toll was higher than former estimates in all places where it was hit and not controlled, rather than just saying everywhere.
A few places, most notably Madrid, did manage to keep it out completely. There is another story, although I can’t remember which town, in which the sole family to bring it to town were bricked up in their house, and it ended right there.
There are some obvious uncomfortable or unpopular parallels that can made to today, in all of that.
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Sawset
Minister of Fire
The closure, extensive cleaning, and reopen at one of our facilities was because someone was consciously careless, nonchalant, felt it didn't matter. Very seriously taken out of their hands.
AlbergSteve
Minister of Fire
I potentially avoided a similar situation at work last week. Our yacht club has been shut down for a couple of weeks, deep cleaned and locked. The same was done to my office. Members still allowed to come and go from their boats, but nothing else. I can't tell you how many groups of people still get together and hang out on their boats every day drinking and BS'ing. They just don't get the seriousness of the risk that they present to themselves and others -keep in mind the average age of the membership is over 70. A couple of guys from that irresponsible group sit on the executive and have access to my office. I discovered that they had been in my office for no particular reason so I asked my boss if I could change the locks. She approved and also got approval from the Commodore. Chit hit the fan - you'd think we had just taken toys from a five year old. These two guys ranted and raved about how you can't restrict their access, they even tried to get other members to back them up. These are the same guys a couple of weeks ago whined and complained when the Provincial government shut down bars and restaurants. They felt that because we were a private club that we didn't have to follow the rules. Fortunately I have 99.8% of the membership on my side. The point is, I'm still gobsmacked at the number of people that aren't take this seriously.
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