Corona Virus

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Sodbuster

Minister of Fire
Sep 22, 2012
1,454
Michigan
It took my daughter 14 days to get her results, she self quarantined while she was waiting, and will continue to do so since her company is not considered vital, and she can work from home via her computer.
 
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mcdougy

Feeling the Heat
Apr 15, 2014
435
ontario
I know for a fact here, there are many hospitalized that are sick with covid19, but since the test results aren't back, the govt is not including them. Presumed cases and confirmed cases is causing delayed numbers. Again here ,to the tune of 5 days or more delayed. Which is concerning as the numbers seem to double in that same time frame or as little as 3 days.
10000 confirmed probably means 20000 actual. And when you here 20000 you very well couldd be sitting at 40000 actual. Very different play on numbers.
 
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begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
82,916
South Puget Sound, WA
Son's GF is recovering at home. Docs say she will be on oxygen for another two weeks. That is good news, but unfortunately she heard last night that her dad (in Arkansas) is in intensive care, testing positive. His bible study group ignored warnings. Now 5 of them are in the hospital. The disease is in the heartland.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
82,916
South Puget Sound, WA
In more positive news, the Mercedes F1 team modified a CPAP machine and delivered a work breathing assist device in 100hrs. We need this kind of turn around here. Now.
 
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SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
4,312
Downeast Maine
Several C19 patients are turning up in auto accidents and other emergencies which leads to more infections as well. Folks are dying and finding out days later the deceased actually had C19. This is clearly a terrible virus that is quantitatively killing thousands of people. In some places patients are being diagnosed with "viral bronchitis" instead of C19 to allow for more leeway on therapeutics.
 

NickW

Member
Oct 16, 2019
200
SE WI
Here in WI it is spreading away from the population centers. My county has the fairgrounds right across the highway from the largest hospital. I hope they turn that into the Covid home base...
 

CaptSpiff

Feeling the Heat
Jan 13, 2014
482
Long Island, NY
In the USA, it is 2500 dead out of 7000 completed cases, so a mortality rate of 36%.
Statistics are just numbers until you place them into meaningful context.

For me, I want to know two stats:
1. The number of people who present for critical care with positive corvid-19, vs the number who died from C-19 complications, as a percentage.
2. The best guess or range of the total number infected, vs the number who died from C-19 complications, as a percentage.

The first should be pretty accurate (and maybe close to Ashful's), the second will be a range that gets tighter with every week (with more testing).

The diversity of complications, even within families is amazing. I now heard many stories like one spouse feeling near death, the other experiencing nothing, and the kid with mild flu-like symptoms. None of the 3 presented to critical care, so outside of most stats.
I'm starting to side with the early experts who predicted Cor-19 would be similar to the seasonal flu with the disadvantage of zero pre-vaccinated.
Remember that USA regular seasonal flu complications leading to death range from 15,000 to 25,000 per year. It also mostly affects the old and in-firmed. The wide range is because the uncertainty of who to count (ex. cancer patient with 3-month to live gets flu and passes).
 
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Sodbuster

Minister of Fire
Sep 22, 2012
1,454
Michigan
In many of the news articles I'm reading, people with underlying conditions are at a much higher risk. If it's been mentioned already, I apologize, but I'm sure you country music fans have heard about the death of Joe Diffie. It was in several articles I've read that he died from complications from Covid. If you look at recent pictures of Joe, he was a big fellow, and at a much higher risk for Type 2 diabetes, and high blood pressure. If he had these complications Covid simply made his death come sooner. I'm seeing more and more people dying from complications of Covid, like opportunistic Pneumonia, weakened immune systems etc. Maybe those with more medical knowledge can flesh this out a bit more. Young, healthy people with no co-morbidities, stand the best chance of beating this, but it's certainly no guarantee.
 

mcdougy

Feeling the Heat
Apr 15, 2014
435
ontario
No specific time line to the new test, the only thing I have read is that Illinois governor has directed the company to not ship any out of the state until it is in all there required hands. I'm sure a rule allowed under the state of emergency rules....
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
82,916
South Puget Sound, WA
Then there are countries like Brazil where the president refuses to accept the danger of this virus. He will not put any common-sense distancing rules in place and has called governors that are doing so, criminals. He has told churches to remain open and even has warned the national health minister to not speak out against him in public or he will be fired. Bolsonaro needs to have a chat with this virus. He will be responsible for thousands of deaths in his country. Looks like Belarus's leader may be taking the same tough-guy stance.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
82,916
South Puget Sound, WA
Does anyone have details to this new 5-15 minute C-19 test which is expected to be available this week?
Will it be available at the walk-in type clinics?
I am not sure, Abbott labs seems to have tight control over the testing through their network. But they are ramping up quickly and hopefully will be available soon. Locally, the UW which has a testing robot that they got permission to put into production testing has made a difference in controlling the spread. This and quick action by the governor and mayors has helped keep the spread rate much lower than what is happening on the east coast.

If we can maintain social distancing and get ramped up on ventilators this quickly, then hospital caseloads should be intense, but more manageable.
 
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mcdougy

Feeling the Heat
Apr 15, 2014
435
ontario

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
82,916
South Puget Sound, WA
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CaptSpiff

Feeling the Heat
Jan 13, 2014
482
Long Island, NY
I am not sure, Abbott labs seems to have tight control over the testing through their network. But they are ramping up quickly and hopefully will be available soon.
Here's a snip from the Abbott Labs article you posted:

The good news for availability of this test is that ID NOW, the hardware from Abbott that it runs on, already “holds the largest molecular point-of-care footprint in the U.S.,” and is “widely available” across doctor’s offices, urgent care clinics, emergency rooms and other medical facilities.

Sounds like great news.
 

SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
4,312
Downeast Maine
In many of the news articles I'm reading, people with underlying conditions are at a much higher risk. If it's been mentioned already, I apologize, but I'm sure you country music fans have heard about the death of Joe Diffie. It was in several articles I've read that he died from complications from Covid. If you look at recent pictures of Joe, he was a big fellow, and at a much higher risk for Type 2 diabetes, and high blood pressure. If he had these complications Covid simply made his death come sooner. I'm seeing more and more people dying from complications of Covid, like opportunistic Pneumonia, weakened immune systems etc. Maybe those with more medical knowledge can flesh this out a bit more. Young, healthy people with no co-morbidities, stand the best chance of beating this, but it's certainly no guarantee.
Doctors in NYC are saying the virus doesn't care about age, ethnicity, education, or income.
 

kennyp2339

Minister of Fire
Feb 16, 2014
4,913
07462
I don't want to start rumors here, but has anyone else heard that the virus affects people more that have type A blood? I read a couple small things about this when Italy was starting to go through hell, haven't heard much about it since, me having A+ blood has me ever so slightly concerned, but this also could be just a bunch of hogwash.
 

Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,000
Northern Indiana
Does anyone have details to this new 5-15 minute C-19 test which is expected to be available this week?
Will it be available at the walk-in type clinics?
it runs on the platform the flu tests run. It’s a tried and true test platform.

No specific time line to the new test, the only thing I have read is that Illinois governor has directed the company to not ship any out of the state until it is in all there required hands. I'm sure a rule allowed under the state of emergency rules....
Ours for the ambulance have shipped with a delivery of Thursday

I don't want to start rumors here, but has anyone else heard that the virus affects people more that have type A blood? I read a couple small things about this when Italy was starting to go through hell, haven't heard much about it since, me having A+ blood has me ever so slightly concerned, but this also could be just a bunch of hogwash.

I’ve seen something to that effect. It could be possible based on different autoimmune responses we know are present in different blood types.
 

kennyp2339

Minister of Fire
Feb 16, 2014
4,913
07462
Care to share your source for that statement?
I believe he made that comment based on Ashful's earlier comment. While I don't think that its a 1:3 ratio of people that succumb to this disease, I saw a headline on the news stating per the good doctor, "up to 200k US virus deaths, if we do things almost perfectly." That's alarming.
 

Ashful

Minister of Fire
Mar 7, 2012
15,727
Philadelphia
This is really serious, what this really means is that 1 in 3 people who develop symptoms will die.
not so fast there, Bus! Yes, the mortality rate taken from the current numbers is indeed 1 in 3, but I believe that reflects our enormous failure in testing, as much as anything else. I believe they were really only testing critical cases two weeks ago, which skews that population of completed cases in today’s data.

In other words, I expect the mortality rate calculated in this way will come down a lot over the next two weeks, as the denominator in that equation fills in with more “average” (not just critical) confirmed cases.
 

Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,000
Northern Indiana
not so fast there, Bus! Yes, the mortality rate taken from the current numbers is indeed 1 in 3, but I believe that reflects our enormous failure in testing, as much as anything else. Likely the number of confirmed cases in that population of completed cases, which would be people who contracted more than two weeks ago, reflects more critical cases than the population who are freshly confirmed but not yet terminated today.

In other words, I expect the mortality rate calculated in this way will come down a lot over the next two weeks, as the denominator in that equation fills in with more “average” (not just critical) confirmed cases.
And to further complicate that number the only people being tested to be in the recovered group are those that are still admitted to the hospital and tested on discharge. We will never have a concrete number until every single person has a test and an antigen test through a blood draw once this is all done. This is the reason the numbers for flu deaths in the US are listed as 25,000 to 62,000 for the season
 
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