Covid-19 check in - How are you doing?

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SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
6,117
Downeast Maine
The study was a brief slice in time, early on. It can be and was misinterpreted by some. This can be the selective and sometimes misleading nature of statistics. This disease has been with us for less than a year. Looking back, objectively, some true patterns will emerge. Trivializing this disease is fallacious and insensitive.
Here is the October CDC mortality report. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain

Disinformation using statistics is one of the greatest threats to our lives right now :(
 

Sawset

Minister of Fire
Feb 14, 2015
1,200
Palmyra, WI
The study was a brief slice in time, early on. It can be and was misinterpreted by some. This can be the selective and sometimes misleading nature of statistics. This disease has been with us for less than a year. Looking back, objectively, some true patterns will emerge. Trivializing this disease is fallacious and insensitive.
Here is the October CDC mortality report. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain
And there could be 3 types of responses.
Buy it at face value, until the next statistic comes along. These are my principles, if you don't like them, I have others.
Or, consider it, with skeptisim and apply additional research. Kind of like how science looks at things.
Or, dismiss it out of hand, until something to my liking appears, then defend that till the end.
I happen to find articles like this intriguing, yet confusing. As in, there isn't a consensus yet on cause and effect. There are enough variables to muddy the water to keep us all guessing. I'll keep stuff like this in the back of my mind, and see if they pan out. But my day to day activities won't change, and probably won't for some time regardless of ideas to the contrary.​
 
Jan 9, 2017
135
Upstate NY
The study was a brief slice in time, early on. It can be and was misinterpreted by some. This can be the selective and sometimes misleading nature of statistics. This disease has been with us for less than a year. Looking back, objectively, some true patterns will emerge. Trivializing this disease is fallacious and insensitive.
Here is the October CDC mortality report. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain
What I see in that graph, is that at the end of September, we are headed to below AVERAGE deaths total.
We have a big spike of deaths in the spring, which is understandable as this is a NEW virus.
Deadly??? Yes, to the immune compromised. To everyone else, just a virus(nasty flu) that we have to get immune to.
What a lot of people dont know is, that your immune system gets stronger with use.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
89,533
South Puget Sound, WA
"Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. These results provide information about the degree to which COVID-19 deaths might be underascertained and inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as efforts to minimize disruptions to health care."

To compare >265,000+ confirmed Covid-19 deaths (and counting) to the 34,200 deaths last year from the flu in the US is disingenuous.
 

SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
6,117
Downeast Maine
What I see in that graph, is that at the end of September, we are headed to below AVERAGE deaths total.
We have a big spike of deaths in the spring, which is understandable as this is a NEW virus.
Deadly??? Yes, to the immune compromised. To everyone else, just a virus(nasty flu) that we have to get immune to.
What a lot of people dont know is, that your immune system gets stronger with use.


Who told you that part about the immune system? Rabies, HIV, Tetanus, and several other diseases beg to differ. Polio was a bit more recently stamped out since it was one of those diseases that tended to kill people. Small pox is another good example of diseases that don't leave you stronger. Covid19 is such a recent development there is no way to tell what the real long term effects will be for people of all age groups. So far the *first* people to die are those with complications and otherwise compromised immune systems. This just started and the infections have done nothing but go up. The large majority of people are taking this seriously and are trying to prevent spread, but a stubborn few have been determined to undermine the whole thing. The deaths were coming down, but have begun to rise. I understand that not everyone is paying as close of attention to this as I am, my immune system IS compromised. A quick internet search to the various CDC websites at the state and federal levels will show you that the case spike now is serious and real. The original death spike in the spring was really just NYC and Covid had not yet spread far and wide. Now there is spread nationwide at the county and even town level. The Easternmost part of the United States is having an outbreak. One of, if not the most, poor counties in the US is starting to have deaths as a result of folks giving up on social distancing back in the spring. Numerous churches across rural Maine have been spreading the virus.

The data is on a huge lag and there are countless statistics to fill the gaps in data, many of which are intentionally used to disinform people.

Many folks like to say there are people among us that are just "misinformed" which would be a benign, albeit unfortunate, circumstance. This is what happened in the spring. Now if people choose not to believe they have been "disinformed" which means a third party (ies) has been purposefully spreading falsehoods.
 
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stoveliker

Minister of Fire
Nov 17, 2019
1,502
Eastern Long Island NY
A mask alone certainly won't protect, it's more about the wearer and their choices. I have coworkers that wear masks in public, but they don't do anything else differently. They seem to think the mask makes them invulnerable. As mentioned with medical procedures even N95 won't save you, but this is a exposure time related thing. If you spend longer than five minutes in close proximity to a person, they better be from your household, because after that the risk is just screaming ever upwards and no mask or hazmat gear will be enough protection.

I'm not sure this (N95S remark) is correct. My wife worked in (medical) places where 75% or more got the virus between April and July. 50% or more died. Her work consists of being (hands-on-) near people for 45+ minutes per treatment.
She wore an N95 (and face shield and safety glasses and a gown and gloves, and was desinfected (sprayed off) after each patient).
If an N95 does not protect (save you) she surely would have gotten it, considering the hundreds of hours of less than armslength close contact she had -medically serving people that desperately needed serving.

While an N95 is not the cure-all (see other measures above, and a very strict behavioral mode of working she adheres to), it certainly provides a big decrease of risk contracting it. (And superfluous: the now ubiquitous surgical masks are more for protecting those around you than yourself, which is what an N95 is for.)

I admit this is anecdotal (rather than based on statistics). But it is consistent with what the masks claim to do.
 
Jan 9, 2017
135
Upstate NY
Who told you that part about the immune system? Rabies, HIV, Tetanus, and several other diseases beg to differ. Polio was a bit more recently stamped out since it was one of those diseases that tended to kill people. Small pox is another good example of diseases that don't leave you stronger. Covid19 is such a recent development there is no way to tell what the real long term effects will be for people of all age groups. So far the *first* people to die are those with complications and otherwise compromised immune systems. This just started and the infections have done nothing but go up. The large majority of people are taking this seriously and are trying to prevent spread, but a stubborn few have been determined to undermine the whole thing. The deaths were coming down, but have begun to rise. I understand that not everyone is paying as close of attention to this as I am, my immune system IS compromised. A quick internet search to the various CDC websites at the state and federal levels will show you that the case spike now is serious and real. The original death spike in the spring was really just NYC and Covid had not yet spread far and wide. Now there is spread nationwide at the county and even town level. The Easternmost part of the United States is having an outbreak. One of, if not the most, poor counties in the US is starting to have deaths as a result of folks giving up on social distancing back in the spring. Numerous churches across rural Maine have been spreading the virus.

The data is on a huge lag and there are countless statistics to fill the gaps in data, many of which are intentionally used to disinform people.

Many folks like to say there are people among us that are just "misinformed" which would be a benign, albeit unfortunate, circumstance. This is what happened in the spring. Now if people choose not to believe they have been "disinformed" which means a third party (ies) has been purposefully spreading falsehoods.
I f YOUR immune system is weak, I don't blame you for not wanting to get it.
To the otherwise healthy people, get on with your life....
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
89,533
South Puget Sound, WA
I f YOUR immune system is weak, I don't blame you for not wanting to get it.
To the otherwise healthy people, get on with your life....
A compromised immune system raises the odds, but there are lots of healthy people without a compromised immune system have gotten very ill from this disease. And many have died from it. Additionally, just because one has a minor case of Covid-19, that doesn't mean this person is not a spreader. We all know of people that have a vulnerability. Sometimes this is genetic, or a nutritional deficiency. It's only when we all take responsibility for each other that we can stop the spread.
 
Jan 9, 2017
135
Upstate NY
A compromised immune system raises the odds, but there are lots of healthy people without a compromised immune system have gotten very ill from this disease. And many have died from it. Additionally, just because one has a minor case of Covid-19, that doesn't mean this person is not a spreader. We all know of people that have a vulnerablilty. It's only when we all take responsibility for each other that we can stop the spread.
{ there are lots of healthy people without a compromised immune system have gotten very ill from this disease.}
I read the news articles claiming that HEALTHY people die from Covid.
If you get past the headline, it usually says, diabetic, obese, and is considered HEALTHY in America today.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
89,533
South Puget Sound, WA
These sad stories are in the papers daily somewhere in the country.
 

SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
Statistics and studies can be manipulated for the intended outcome.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
89,533
South Puget Sound, WA
So I am going to ask people to stop using this thread as an opinion sounding board. It is supposed to be a check-in only, on how folks are doing. I asked medic, because he is a frontline EMT and I am concerned about these folks. In some areas they are dropping from fatigue, which also can make them vulnerable. Local nurses, emts, doctors in the Seattle area are definitely feeling the stress. The numbers we are seeing now far exceed April's peak (over 5x so far). And this is where they think the disease first struck in the US.
 

Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,128
Northern Indiana
The study was a brief slice in time, early on. It can be and was misinterpreted by some. This can be the selective and sometimes misleading nature of statistics. This disease has been with us for less than a year. Looking back, objectively, some true patterns will emerge. Trivializing this disease is fallacious and insensitive.
Here is the October CDC mortality report. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain
The whole point of me posting that is that the number one killer in the United States, Heart Disease, must have been partially cured based on the numbers having a significant drop. The number of people that have died with Covid does not change. There has been a ton of misinformation, or a better term would be omitted information. It really begs the question as to whether a lot of these people would have died anyways. Yes I am educated and I understand comorbid factors. But, these numbers really do need a closer look and dissecting.
I believe that the study was taken down because it is partial and a good starting point.

There will never be a medical study that does not have an intended outcome prior to even starting that. NEVER treat one like gospel.

Sorry, Boss, return to regular programming now...
 
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Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,128
Northern Indiana
So I am going to ask people to stop using this thread as an opinion sounding board. It is supposed to be a check-in only, on how folks are doing. I asked medic, because he is a frontline EMT and I am concerned about these folks. In some areas they are dropping from fatigue, which also can make them vulnerable. Local nurses, emts, doctors in the Seattle area are definitely feeling the stress. The numbers we are seeing now far exceed April's peak (over 5x so far). And this is where they think the disease first struck in the US.
I believe the first Coronavirus that struck the Seattle area was a weaker form that had not mutated yet. The one the started East in NYC was the harsher, more aggressive, form and that is what your seeing on the west cost now. While originally there was immunity it is a cross immunity like the flu gives from strain to strain.

if anyone thinks this is going to get any better, no matter what we do, before a mass vaccine is available and distributed, I’ll gladly sell you some ocean front property I have here in Indiana.

Common sense will go a long way in the next few months.
 

Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,128
Northern Indiana
These sad stories are in the papers daily somewhere in the country.
There are many conditions this virus causes that can kill healthy people. The quickest, I’ve seen it and it’s f’in scary, is a Cytokine Storm which is an autoimmune response. Walking to dead in 4 hours without any previous medical hx and is working like hell in a loosing battle for life.

Another, had this pt a month ago is blood clots causing a PE. I’ve never seen the flu kill a 22 year old college senior with a PE.

Y’all need to relax, I’m not telling anyone to blow this off. Use your head and some common sense.
 

gggvan

Member
Dec 6, 2012
121
So I am going to ask people to stop using this thread as an opinion sounding board. It is supposed to be a check-in only, on how folks are doing. I asked medic, because he is a frontline EMT and I am concerned about these folks. In some areas they are dropping from fatigue, which also can make them vulnerable. Local nurses, emts, doctors in the Seattle area are definitely feeling the stress. The numbers we are seeing now far exceed April's peak (over 5x so far). And this is where they think the disease first struck in the US.

Thank you! We're def on the rise here in MA, and we just imposed a travel quarantine against VT, who just became a hotspot yesterday. Daughter's school went all remote last week. Looking to really hunker down for DEC-FEB. It's a shame, cause now we don't need to be any one place, but we can't travel either.
 
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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
So I am going to ask people to stop using this thread as an opinion sounding board. It is supposed to be a check-in only, on how folks are doing. I asked medic, because he is a frontline EMT and I am concerned about these folks. In some areas they are dropping from fatigue, which also can make them vulnerable. Local nurses, emts, doctors in the Seattle area are definitely feeling the stress. The numbers we are seeing now far exceed April's peak (over 5x so far). And this is where they think the disease first struck in the US.

\Works for me. In a nutshell, my wife and I are fine, Covid free (far as we can tell) and plan on staying that way until such time as we can get vaccinated.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
89,533
South Puget Sound, WA
\Works for me. In a nutshell, my wife and I are fine, Covid free (far as we can tell) and plan on staying that way until such time as we can get vaccinated.
Good plan. Same for my clan.
 

bholler

Chimney sweep
Staff member
Jan 14, 2014
25,477
central pa
{ there are lots of healthy people without a compromised immune system have gotten very ill from this disease.}
I read the news articles claiming that HEALTHY people die from Covid.
If you get past the headline, it usually says, diabetic, obese, and is considered HEALTHY in America today.
I just spent the last 3 days with an ICU nurse who works in a covid unit. While there she got notice that 2 of her patients died. One was 34 years old and while slightly over weight in good overall health. Don't believe everything you read this disease can take perfectly healthy people as well. There are also many unforeseen complications arising in recovered patients.

Are masks fool proof no course not but they help especially when used in combination with social distancing properly used gloves sanitizer etc. So why not use them?
 
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mcdougy

Minister of Fire
Apr 15, 2014
673
ontario
Its like wearing a seat belt in your vehicle.......or a helmet, or a fall restraint and all the things that can be put under the PPE umbrella. Most do it because they follow rules in general, some do it because they fear for their life without it, and even less people flip the bird to any rule or recommendations fhat they don't agree with or understand the validity.
Ring around the rosie, pocket full of posie.....somethings will never change....
 

stoveliker

Minister of Fire
Nov 17, 2019
1,502
Eastern Long Island NY
So I am going to ask people to stop using this thread as an opinion sounding board. It is supposed to be a check-in only, on how folks are doing. I asked medic, because he is a frontline EMT and I am concerned about these folks. In some areas they are dropping from fatigue, which also can make them vulnerable. Local nurses, emts, doctors in the Seattle area are definitely feeling the stress. The numbers we are seeing now far exceed April's peak (over 5x so far). And this is where they think the disease first struck in the US.

Yes sir. We are holding on, but it's not easy. However, there is nothing else to do as being prudent and taking care of what and who needs taking care of.

I can say that manually splitting wood is good for me, even more so in these circumstances.
 
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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
I just spent the last 3 days with an ICU nurse who works in a covid unit. While there she got notice that 2 of her patients died. One was 34 years old and while slightly over weight in good overall health. Don't believe everything you read this disease can take perfectly healthy people as well. There are also many unforeseen complications arising in recovered patients.

Are masks fool proof no course not but they help especially when used in combination with social distancing properly used gloves sanitizer etc. So why not use them?
Guy across the road got it and he has 'underlying' issues but he bested it. Problem is the long lasting effects. He's tired all the time, sleeps a lot and has little energy. Got it on a Elk hunt in Colorado, heck of a present to bring home and no He didn't bring home any elk either.

My wife and I do everything possible not to get it. IMO, all we can do we are doing.

I did not hunt at all this year which is highly unusual for me but I felt that going hunting might increase the likely hood of getting it so I didn't. Always next year
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
89,533
South Puget Sound, WA
Local town holiday events are starting to shut down instead of taking the risk of mass exposure. Same thing for recycling events I help out with. Our town has stayed low at about 2 cases/month average since April. We just jumped 10x to 20 cases in a week! Mostly this is family spread where one person traveling, commuting or at work brings it home to the family.
 
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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
Local town holiday events are starting to shut down instead of taking the risk of mass exposure. Same thing for recycling events I help out with. Our town has stayed low at about 2 cases/month average since April. We just jumped 10x to 20 cases in a week! Mostly this is family spread where one person traveling, commuting or at work brings it home to the family.
Very similar to the medium sized town east of us about 30 miles. We get their newspaper daily so we can observe new cases and who passed and who survived and they went positively bonkers about a week ago from maybe 15confirmed in a day to over 200 in a single day and deaths are averaging a couple per day now. Scratching my head over that. All I can attribute that to is the election. No other common denominator.

One of my very good friends who happens to be a retired doctor got it and so did his wife and she's not doing good. Both are early 70's and both were careful but both voted in person though they wore masks and social distanced. Called me and told me NOT to stop by because and I assured him I would not. Hopefully they come through it unscathed, great folks. I hate to see anyone get infected.

This year was my first flu shot ever. I've never got one but something told me I should, so I did. The 'old man's shot', double dose. Got a bit sick from it for 12 hours or so but so far, so good.

Get my nose swabbed on Monday morning. required for my upcoming procedure on Wednesday with 5 more after that so I suspect 5 more swabs as well or until I get vaccinated. I'm excited.... no biggie. I've had exams in every orifice I have and tubes down my nose too. A little swab isn't anything.
 
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