Drop in Oil

[begreen]

Renewables and conservation. We can go a very long way towards independence by reducing waste and being more efficient. Just look at a nighttime satellite image of the Bakken oil fields. S. Dakota has gone from dark to lit up at night due to flaring off gas.

 

[dougstove]

I am no expert of middle east politics or cultures, but I know that if we wanted to get to oil independence via fracking, it would cost another ~$1-2T up front, and would last 5-10 years or so.

The only long-term solution to the oil problem is renewables. $1-2T would buy a lot of renewables and grid infrastructure and EV incentives.

I agree; I should have written 'energy independence'.

Unfortunately for Canada, I think we are going to be stuck with alot of low value hydrocarbons, and alot of melted muskeg that is useless for forestry or cropping, because I think the Saudi's, Iraqi's, Iranians and Russians will more or less run out the end of bulk international oil demand, before the tarsands are ever really needed.

Maybe we could get into industrial scale Moose farming as the boreal forest moves north.

 

[jebatty]

Would you call mining tar sands from the boreal forest an event of deforestation? In MN the interests that want to cut down the forests call it a "land use decision," not deforestation. I guess developed countries make land use decisions while for 3rd world or undeveloped countries the word is deforestation.

 

[dougstove]

I would call the tarsands deforestation.
But, to be fair, the loss of forest in Northern Alberta is small compared to the piece by piece conversion of forest and farm to parking lots around Toronto or Calgary. Our zoning and building code decisions are having big cumulative impacts on land use and embedding future energy use into infrastructure building.
Nobody wants to be told not to pave their drive way, or to install insulation rather than granite counter tops. But our individual decisions add up.

 

[iamlucky13]

The tarsands mining requires completely deforesting the area being mined, but it's a far smaller area than most people realize, or than than the media portrays. There's a map of the current development here:
http://www.oilsands.alberta.ca/reclamation.html

The yellowish patch is the currently disturbed area, and the brown the expected future mining area. The tan is deeper deposits expected to be extracted by an underground steam heating method.(Wikipedia article here). This doesn't require nearly as much disturbance of the surface. They clear a work area for the large drill rigs and steam plants, and do horizontal bores through the deposits.

It will also take a long time to remove that much oil. I think they're currently extracting about 1.3 million barrels per day. The high end of the estimates 2030 production is 3.3 million barrels per day. At that rate, it will take roughly 150 years to extract all that is estimated to be retrievable with the current technology.

Where the land is deforested, the government is requiring them to recontour the ground to a roughly natural state as they replace the soil that has had oil removed from it, cap it with the organic-rich soil that originally formed the top layer they remove to access the tar sands, and replant it. It will obviously take decades before it is covered with mature trees again, and full recovery to the level of diversity that was there before will take longer, but it will be done.

Land use decisions and deforestation are not exclusive terms. But if a private landowner is going to do something with their land other than leave it as forest or manage it for timber, it generally means deforesting it. That's just something we need to accept unless we're going to as a society stop pretending to respect private property rights.

 

[jebatty]

Deforestation, changes in land use, loss of forest lands, impacts on ground and surface water, impacts on habitat -- and private property rights -- all are big issues in Minnesota. It's probably correct that virtually no one is opposed to private property rights. The issue usually is the intersection of the exercise of private property rights by one person which take away the private property rights of another person (or the general public). I have no desire to turn this thread into a discussion of private property rights. Thanks for the information on the tar sands mining and required restoration/reclamation as the mining ends. I hope the follow through to restore/reclaim in fact occurs.

 

[dougstove]

Not to argue property rights (a big ball of wax), but NIMBY drives me nuts.
A parking lot full of SUV at an anti-fracking rally.
Some one in a 3000 sq ft. monster house in a no-transit suburb who oppose a pipeline....

 

[jebatty]

NIMBY is irksome, but really presents two different issues. For example, the issue of fracking, go or no go, is different from the issue of the SUV's. About four different ways to decide that. I think the problem is one person perceiving that another person is not living well enough the values that other person appears to be advancing. But IMO they each need to be decided on their own merits and not tied together. As to fracking and the SUV, what if the person who opposes fracking instead rides a bicycle or always uses public transportation, but takes an annual flight to Bali for a winter vacation. How to judge? Best not to judge at all but again, decide each issue on its merits.

After all, not one of us is good enough on whatever value he or she espouses. A person can always do more, a person can never do enough, no matter how hard a person tries. So, NIMBY always applies

 

[dougstove]

Fair enough.

 

[JustWood]

Thanks for the information on the tar sands mining and required restoration/reclamation as the mining ends. I hope the follow through to restore/reclaim in fact occurs.

If Canada enviro law is anything like US is. It will be .
A gravel mining permit here must be bonded to ensure its reclaimed. Last figure I heard from a friend it was around $6K/acre.

 

[vinny11950]

Here is an article on oil prices

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...unge-to-20-and-this-might-be-the-end-of-opec-

Despite the recent price surge in oil, I keep seeing calls for it to fall again to around $30. Not sure if analysts who are late to the party of calling a bottom, are trying to cover their short positions, or if they really believe it. Only time will tell.

One point is obvious, oil producers and oil producing countries overall (excluding the bad ones - like Venezuela) have become incredibly efficient at getting the stuff. Too good for their own good.