EV sales just passed diesel sales in Europe

[begreen]

That happened faster than I thought it would considering most new cars there were diesel just a few years ago.

Battery electric car sales finally overtook the diesel institution in Europe

While electrified models passed diesels in 2020 in Europe, battery electric models alone just overtook diesels.

www.greencarreports.com

 

[peakbagger]

The various diesel gates probably helped and several major cites outright ban or make it very expensive to drive fossil vehicles in cities. European inspection standards are lot a lot tougher and that means cars tend to stay on the roads for shorter durations. Europe is also "smaller" in scale. Europeans always comment that when visiting the US that car trips are always a lot longer than they expected. My guess is car with 200 mile range in Europe is managable as an only car while in the US most would find that way too limiting.

As long as an EV has a small battery, the actual manufacturing cost is less than IC vehicles. Nio which has swappable battery pack is moving into Norway and one of their selling modes is to buy or lease the car without a battery and then just lease a charged battery when you need one. They can be charged at home for local use but when on trip they just pull into a station and swap out for fully charged battery.

 

[woodgeek]

After reading the article, it seems that EU policies on fuel prices are driving market choices. High gas taxes drives smaller cars and higher mpg. Subsidies for diesel drive large scale diesel adoption. Then removing diesel subsides, and the low price of electricity as a fuel (compared to gas or diesel) and people move to BEVs.

BEVs are already cheaper on a cost of ownership basis, but high gas taxes in the EU make that an even bigger effect.

 

[woodgeek]

Just looked up some numbers... to compare that 20% figure in the EU to the US.

Nominally, US EV sales in 2021 are only 4.4%, but looking deeper, the denominator is 3.3M autos and 11M 'light trucks' (SUVs and pickups).

US bought 300k EVs in 2020 and 300k more in the first half of 2021. If that translates to 600k on an annual basis, then 2021 implies 18% of autos bought in the US in 2021 were EVs. !!

Checking 4.4% of 14m total light vehicles is 630k EV sales in the US in 2021.

When I bought my LEAF in May 2014, a cumulative total of ~50k EVs had been sold in the US.

So the 'problem' of 'slow' EV adoption in the US relative to the EU is not range anxiety, its the lack of SUV and pickup EV models sold at scale and reasonable prices. Great EV sedans have been available for some time, but Americans don't buy sedans.

 

[NoGoodAtScreenNames]

Just looked up some numbers... to compare that 20% figure in the EU to the US.

Nominally, US EV sales in 2021 are only 4.4%, but looking deeper, the denominator is 3.3M autos and 11M 'light trucks' (SUVs and pickups).

US bought 300k EVs in 2020 and 300k more in the first half of 2021. If that translates to 600k on an annual basis, then 2021 implies 18% of autos bought in the US in 2021 were EVs. !!

Checking 4.4% of 14m total light vehicles is 630k EV sales in the US in 2021.

When I bought my LEAF in May 2014, a cumulative total of ~50k EVs had been sold in the US.

So the 'problem' of 'slow' EV adoption in the US relative to the EU is not range anxiety, its the lack of SUV and pickup EV models sold at scale and reasonable prices. Great EV sedans have been available for some time, but Americans don't buy sedans.

I find it funny when I see some Teslas or the Mach-e described as crossovers / compact SUVs. However, there are new options coming in that I think will appeal to Americans more. VW ID4, Hyundais Ioniq5, Kia EV6 not to mention the Ford Lightning should make a big splash for people who don’t want a Tesla or at least want something that still qualifies for the tax credit.

 

[Ashful]

So the 'problem' of 'slow' EV adoption in the US relative to the EU is not range anxiety, its the lack of SUV and pickup EV models sold at scale and reasonable prices. Great EV sedans have been available for some time, but Americans don't buy sedans.

I believe range anxiety is claimed more by people who have no interest in an EV anyway, than as the deal breaker for anyone with any interest in them. But the lack of reasonably priced full-size vehicles, especially SUV's, is a real problem. My wife would be driving a BEV or plug-in hybrid, rather than a big honkin 6 liter V8 today, if the prices on them weren't completely insane.

 

[peakbagger]

Lots of folks lined up for the F150 Lightning and dealers are gouging folks getting on the waiting list. My guess is they will be on the road in mass long before I see a lot of Tesla cyber trucks. Maybe folks will commute with them but wondering how many will go into commercial service?. I see them initially as a second or third image vehicle for folks who have to show off the latest toy. My area is flooded with out of state contractor trucks pulling their ATVs to towns in most cases the folks are doing 400 plus mile round trips on weekends (sometimes as day trips) so I dont see a lot of EV trucks making it to town with an EV in tow.

I do admit my Rav4 Prime battery hybrid SUV seems to be a low compromise way of going partially electric. Figure in the EV credit and they cost what a lot of gas SUVs run for with the same options. With the exception of plugging, it in and remembering to unplug it, the EV side of it is relatively transparent. Its got AWD and most of the goodies plus outrageous acceleration if wanted. If someone really wants soup to nuts goodies Toyota offers various XLE versions. No range anxiety and I really do not miss visiting the gas station as often. It really does not stick out and unless someone is looking for one, they probably would not notice the difference.

 

[woodgeek]

Indeed. I would say that my Bolt, which in pictures from its proportions looked like a tiny yaris or something was a cross-over...the cabin was way bigger and more roomy than any sedan or hatch I ever owned. The lack of a large engine compartment makes us misjudge. You have to climb in and/or measure cu ft of cabin/cargo.

That said, while battery prices have fallen to where 200-250 mile BEV sedans are affordable (like $40k nicely equipped), the price of the powertrain (battery) is still linearly proportional to the vehicle mass (and energy storage required). I am sure that the price of an ICE powertrain is sub-linear in its HP. IMHO, that sub-linear scaling is part of what makes them attractive to makers and buyers... I get TWICE the power/utility for 50% more money, and the maker is making more profit bc the larger drive train only costs 25% more to build. But the linear scaling forces the BEV 'crossovers' to be on the small side (not giant minivans or trucks) and/or they are gonna be nowhere near $40k at this time. IIRC the F150 truck and the model X SUV are both north of $100k.

Just have to wait for cell price to drop another 2X and production to scale another few times. Give it a year or three.

 

[peakbagger]

Not sure on the Bolt but hitting my head on the A pillar of a Volt got old when I rode in them. Yes I understand aerodramitics but darn that front windsheild was just several degrees slanted back that it should have been. Even my Rav4 takes getting to use to, I warn all my passengers.

 

[woodgeek]

The Bolt had more headroom (an arched roof) than any other car I've owned. I'm 6'1" and I could've worn a fedora in there. And I just brush my head sometimes on the doorway of my Volt.

It was built like one of those concept cars with a flat floor spanning whole cabin. I could also stretch my legs out fully in the front. Crazy.

 

[begreen]

After reading the article, it seems that EU policies on fuel prices are driving market choices. High gas taxes drives smaller cars and higher mpg. Subsidies for diesel drive large scale diesel adoption. Then removing diesel subsides, and the low price of electricity as a fuel (compared to gas or diesel) and people move to BEVs.

BEVs are already cheaper on a cost of ownership basis, but high gas taxes in the EU make that an even bigger effect.

Same thing needs to happen here. Drop fossil fuel industry subsidies to promote rapid change. But that would require commonsense and a commitment to future generations instead of shareholders.

 

[DBoon]

Yeah, my Bolt has a crazy amount of interior room - looks small but holds large. The backseat surprises everyone - it is very reasonable to fit three adults back there - plenty of room behind the front seats and no hump in the middle.

 

[begreen]

We upgraded to the gen 2 Volt and love it, but our next vehicle, if there is one, will be a pure EV. The 2023 Equinox EV looks interesting.