EV sales slowing, GM and Toyota see more hybrids now

[woodgeek]

That's the way it should be, but for some reason, the card readers mysteriously fail, pretty consistently. I am wondering if this is so that the company can avoid payments to the credit card companies? I mean, card readers on gas pumps have worked well for a long time so why are they so frequently failing on EV chargers?

I have used those CC readers exactly once and had my CC number stolen. So never again, I will only use the apps or RFID cards.

The CC readers are probably broken because criminals are trying to hack them to steal cards. Reddit is full of stories like mine.

I agree with @DBoon that the problems with EA are overblown re reliability, but the crowding issue is pretty dire (like >30 minutes everywhere at every EA charger all the time). They have started putting in idle charges and things like that, but my typical stop has been:

pull in, there are 8 stalls, 2 or 3 don't work. That leaves 5 or 6 stalls. One of those has a car parked in at 100%, no driver. Another one has a driver charging to >90%. The 3 or 4 (out of 8) remaining stalls are handling the load: there is a line of 4 people ahead of you waiting to use them.

Is this an EA problem, or a people problem? YES.

 

[begreen]

Interesting. I can honestly say in the 40? yrs getting gas with a credit card, this has not happened. But it is why I never use a debit card there.

 

[EbS-P]

Ford will be giving out NACS (Tesla) charging adapters for free. Probably won’t sell vehicles but might keep a Fire owner or two loyal to the brand when they make the switch.

 

[begreen]

Toyota and BMW see hyrogen fed fuel cell electric vehicles being a viable part of the mix in the future. Honda and Hyundai are also invested in this research and development. They cite the advantages of quick refuel and long range while remaining zero emissions. The vehicles can weigh less and have a lower environmental impact with no large batteries in them. Hydrogen refueling is close to the pump and go experience of modern ICE vehicle owners. Fuel cells also make heat which can be used for cabin warming instead of range stealing resistance and heatpump heating.

 

[ABMax24]

I'm pretty skeptical that EV's are the complete transportation solution of the future, but I'm even more skeptical of hydrogen. Not so much in the vehicle tech, I think that's reasonably achievable today.

Hydrogen production itself is highly energy intensive, and either requires a massive source of green electricity to produce or requires fossil fuels and some kind of carbon capture. Storage can be an issue, it's such a small molecule it wants to leak out of everything, and does really funky things to materials like steel at high pressures such as hydrogen embrittlement. Plus the round trip efficiency is at best 60%, but more like 50%. Significantly less than a standard EV battery.

 

[DBoon]

I thought that was how it was. I assumed pay at the pump so to speak.

The picture you paint is mildly disturbing, lol.

Yeah, theoretically it is pay at the pump. It all sounds good in theory. For non-Tesla drivers, imagine if your gas fill up experience is like this and you'll get the picture:

1. All the gas stations are unattended
2. You don't know where the gas stations are located, so you have to have an app on your mobile phone to tell you where all of the gas stations are.
3. Sometimes the app on your phone doesn't show you all the gas stations, just some of them (for some reason, probably because some gas stations don't want to pay to be put on the app)
4. The gas stations are not located for the convenience of the customers but near where pipelines run. This means they usually are a mile or two from highway exits, in the back of shopping centers, and other weird locations that don't make much sense.
5. The gas pumps are never covered, so when it is raining you have to stand in the rain to fill up.
6. You can't pay cash at the gas station. Most of the time you can't use a credit card either. Instead, every gas station has thoughtfully created a custom app that you have to use for payment, and each one requires a username, password, etc. to create an account and charge a credit card when you buy gas. This is especially nice when you go on a road trip and all the gas station brands are different so you have to download a ton more apps onto your phone to buy gas.
7. Two out of eight gas pumps are never working. Sometimes there are only four gas pumps and 1 (maybe 2) of them aren't working.
8. Sometimes you pull into a gas station and a pump is occupied with a car that has been filled with gas and the owner is nowhere to be found. They usually show up again about a half hour after their car has been filled full. You can't remove the gas spigot from their car - it is locked in place. Theseare the same people who leave put their clothes in a washer or dryer at a laundromat on a Saturday afternoon and come back three hours later and expect no one to have removed their clothes in the meantime.
9. The gas pumps only dispense about a quart of gas every two minutes to get the last gallon or two in your tank. Yet for some reason, some people insist on spending an extra 15 minutes connected to the gas pump to fill to 100% while others are waiting.
10. During times of low pipeline pressure, output of the gas pump is reduced to a trickle so you can only get about 1 gallon per minute.
11. Sometimes, for now reason, you just can't get the pump to dispense gas, no matter what you do.

Right now, you've got to have some patience and plan ahead. Is it getting better over time? Yes, there are more DC fast chargers now compared to five years ago, the newest ones take credit cards, the reliability is better than five years ago, etc., but it still mostly resembles what I describe above.

The "range anxiety" that is spoken of I don't believe is caused by real concern about mileage range of the vehicle but concern over the mostly horrible user experience of finding and using a fast charger. Tesla has been great in taking this off the table for their drivers.

If you are plan ahead, are mostly technically competent, confident, and not anxious, all of the above can be dealt with with a little planning and patience. I think the above is dumb and should all be fixed, but I can live with it (for now). Many others probably don't feel the same.

How did we get to this point? It's what happens when you let a bunch of young, technical people design the system in conjunction with bad marketing and business people who have a poor understanding of the market, beyond what they can see a year in front of themselves (my opinion and full disclosure: I am technical, marketing and business, but no longer young.

 

[begreen]

The "range anxiety" that is spoken of I don't believe is caused by real concern about mileage range of the vehicle but concern over the mostly horrible user experience of finding and using a fast charger. Tesla has been great in taking this off the table for their drivers.

Spot on. Another issue is that many of these charging stations are being placed next to malls or mini-malls with convenient eating and quick shopping. This is much like the service centers on major interstates. The problem is, people are encouraged to linger and shop while waiting for their car to charge up and they do, often forgetting or ignoring their car long past when it is charged, thus tying up stations. Imagine someone parking their car at a gas pump for a couple of hours.

 

[EbS-P]

Yeah, theoretically it is pay at the pump. It all sounds good in theory. For non-Tesla drivers, imagine if your gas fill up experience is like this and you'll get the picture:

1. All the gas stations are unattended
2. You don't know where the gas stations are located, so you have to have an app on your mobile phone to tell you where all of the gas stations are.
3. Sometimes the app on your phone doesn't show you all the gas stations, just some of them (for some reason, probably because some gas stations don't want to pay to be put on the app)
4. The gas stations are not located for the convenience of the customers but near where pipelines run. This means they usually are a mile or two from highway exits, in the back of shopping centers, and other weird locations that don't make much sense.
5. The gas pumps are never covered, so when it is raining you have to stand in the rain to fill up.
6. You can't pay cash at the gas station. Most of the time you can't use a credit card either. Instead, every gas station has thoughtfully created a custom app that you have to use for payment, and each one requires a username, password, etc. to create an account and charge a credit card when you buy gas. This is especially nice when you go on a road trip and all the gas station brands are different so you have to download a ton more apps onto your phone to buy gas.
7. Two out of eight gas pumps are never working. Sometimes there are only four gas pumps and 1 (maybe 2) of them aren't working.
8. Sometimes you pull into a gas station and a pump is occupied with a car that has been filled with gas and the owner is nowhere to be found. They usually show up again about a half hour after their car has been filled full. You can't remove the gas spigot from their car - it is locked in place. Theseare the same people who leave put their clothes in a washer or dryer at a laundromat on a Saturday afternoon and come back three hours later and expect no one to have removed their clothes in the meantime.
9. The gas pumps only dispense about a quart of gas every two minutes to get the last gallon or two in your tank. Yet for some reason, some people insist on spending an extra 15 minutes connected to the gas pump to fill to 100% while others are waiting.
10. During times of low pipeline pressure, output of the gas pump is reduced to a trickle so you can only get about 1 gallon per minute.
11. Sometimes, for now reason, you just can't get the pump to dispense gas, no matter what you do.

Right now, you've got to have some patience and plan ahead. Is it getting better over time? Yes, there are more DC fast chargers now compared to five years ago, the newest ones take credit cards, the reliability is better than five years ago, etc., but it still mostly resembles what I describe above.

The "range anxiety" that is spoken of I don't believe is caused by real concern about mileage range of the vehicle but concern over the mostly horrible user experience of finding and using a fast charger. Tesla has been great in taking this off the table for their drivers.

If you are plan ahead, are mostly technically competent, confident, and not anxious, all of the above can be dealt with with a little planning and patience. I think the above is dumb and should all be fixed, but I can live with it (for now). Many others probably don't feel the same.

How did we get to this point? It's what happens when you let a bunch of young, technical people design the system in conjunction with bad marketing and business people who have a poor understanding of the market, beyond what they can see a year in front of themselves (my opinion and full disclosure: I am technical, marketing and business, but no longer young.

It happened because the auto makers treated EVs as regular ICE products. Tesla didn’t. Tesla knew that if the chargers were not plentiful and operating they couldn’t sell the new EV “lifestyle”

It’s been a decade since the first coast to coast Tesla supercharger only trip. Not having god charging networks was and still is a failure of the manufactures to truly commit to a transition to EVs. Tesla will make lots of money of of their short sightedness.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/first-across-us-supercharger

 

[begreen]

The big 3 want the govt. to put in a charging network for them. Tesla perceived the need and did it. This is what market disruption looks like.

 

[woodgeek]

1. The gas stations are not located for the convenience of the customers but near where pipelines run. This means they usually are a mile or two from highway exits, in the back of shopping centers, and other weird locations that don't make much sense.

You nailed it, but I would amend this. Most turnpike operators _excluded_ companies from placing DCFC at their rest stops for years, bc commerce there is highly regulated. DCFC companies had to bid/compete to get access, and when they did, they put in pitiful numbers of stalls (decided by bureaucrats based upon old data and no growth projection). When those broke down (or the operator went bankrupt) other DCFC companies couldn't come in bc the previous company had an exclusive contract.

In shopping centers, the tenants were afraid that EV charging would occupy prime parking spaces near the entrances, and would deter business, so they forced the location to the far reaches of the parking lots.

That is how we got here.

Also, many EVs take 30-60 minutes to charge from 80-100%, and yet people still 'top off' their tank routinely, and then complain on social media that charging took 'two hours' when they were at 80% full in 20-40 minutes.

 

[begreen]

I'm surprised that we have not seen more enterprising independents adding EV charging at gas stations and convenience stores. Thinking some 7-11s, Pilot gas, etc. This is being done in Colorado with apparent success.

 

[woodgeek]

I'm surprised that we have not seen more enterprising independents adding EV charging at gas stations and convenience stores. Thinking some 7-11s, Pilot gas, etc. This is being done in Colorado with apparent success.

View attachment 324326

Until recently, the hardware costs have been astronomical. One of Tesla's tricks was to drive down the price of a stall by a good margin while they were rolling them out. Pads and transformers cost money too, but the units were all 6 figures, while Tesla's were a fraction of that.

As high power semiconductors continue to scale, and the price of DCFCs comes down, I think you will see a bit more organic growth.

 

[begreen]

We need more tricks like that.

 

[woodgeek]

We need more tricks like that.

As problematic as Elon's personal beliefs are, he is very good at figuring out the cost constraints of new tech, and figuring out how to drive them down continuously while scaling production. Or at least assembling teams of engineers that are then motivated to do just that. That is the 'secret' behind both both Tesla and SpaceX. IP not directed at some new tech working (which Elon considers easy), but at working while undercutting a falling cost curve ad meeting a rising production curve, folding in small innovations continuously.

 

[EbS-P]

Until recently, the hardware costs have been astronomical. One of Tesla's tricks was to drive down the price of a stall by a good margin while they were rolling them out. Pads and transformers cost money too, but the units were all 6 figures, while Tesla's were a fraction of that.

As high power semiconductors continue to scale, and the price of DCFCs comes down, I think you will see a bit more organic growth.

I’m not sure Tesla has any competition on the DCFC hardware front. They likely have suppliers lined up for volume manufacturing numbers that others can’t meet. Anyone can now add an NACS plug to their charger but that doesn’t even scratch the surface of what competition will look like in 5 years. Tesla probably has over 2000 charging locations with 8-10 (or more) stalls per location. I still fail to see if you were serious about a great EV experience you would choose anything else. Musk is a reason not to but his companies products are so solid I would never put my self through the awful experience of a non Tesla experience.

 

[begreen]

I still fail to see if you were serious about a great EV experience you would choose anything else. Musk is a reason not to but his companies products are so solid I would never put my self through the awful experience of a non Tesla experience.

There are a lot of other reasons, especially if one primarily charges at home.

 

[DBoon]

I'm surprised that we have not seen more enterprising independents adding EV charging at gas stations and convenience stores.

This is starting to happen in NY State (regions I travel through a lot and do a fair amount of DCFC in). For instance, there is a new DCFC at a Sheetz in State College, PA (and this chain has DCFCs at other locations in PA). Mirabito in Central and Southern Tier of NY State is adding DCFC - I charged at one in Binghamton a couple of weeks back.

 

[DBoon]

I still fail to see if you were serious about a great EV experience you would choose anything else.

I personally have no issue with Tesla vehicles, and have recommended them to others who will be road-tripping a lot or need a more seamless fast-charging experience.

Five years ago when I bought my Bolt, Tesla was just ramping up production of the Model 3 and had vapor-launched the Model Y (the hatchback style I prefer to own). The problem for me, at the time, was that I wanted a hatchback and Tesla didn't have it. Also, I'm not a big fan of rear-wheel drive in the snow, so I would have had to buy their all-wheel drive (dual motor) option, which adds
$10k or so. I don't prefer but could get over their touch-screen for everything console. Five years ago there were legitimate concerns as to whether Tesla might be around for the life of a vehicle purchased in December of 2018.

At the end of the day, to get something that I wanted from Tesla I would have had to wait 2 years and spend another $20k. Not worth it to me then. Plus, I figured the abysmal DCFC network from 5 years ago would be mostly better by today (and it mostly is - it's been a long time since I had to reduce my speed to 50 mph to limp the distance to the next DCFC, and hope that it would work when I got there). Today's non-Tesla DCFC network isn't what I would design, but I can make it work (some couldn't, and a majority probably worry they couldn't).

Today if I were in the market for a new BEV, I don't think I would consider a Tesla. Their cars still seem expensive, the build quality seems to have declined, and reliability is average. I've also heard enough nightmare stories of Tesla insurance costs to give me pause (my Bolt costs me $100 more to insure compared to the compact car it replaced). The Tesla DCFC experience is superior, but I can manage the alternative, and the alternative does continue to improve, and it doesn't kill me to wait a little longer at a DCFC. Do I love waiting an hour to DCFC my car (1-1/4 hours or maybe more in the winter)? Of course not, but that is just what purchasing early technology relegates me to, and it wasn't worth $20k (back then) to save 15 hours a year for 10 years, and any car I buy in the future will charge a lot faster anyways.

I give Tesla credit for actually building cars and not just SUVs and trucks. If the other automakers continue their singular focus on SUVs and trucks, I might be in a Tesla in 5 years or so, regardless. The new Volvo EX30 gives me hope that there will be something to buy in a smaller BEV in the future, though I don't love the idea of buying something made (and designed) in China (for reliability and quality reasons).

 

[EbS-P]

I'm surprised that we have not seen more enterprising independents adding EV charging at gas stations and convenience stores. Thinking some 7-11s, Pilot gas, etc. This is being done in Colorado with apparent success.

View attachment 324326

I wonder what financing looks like. Let’s say I own a shop. Could I get financing to install two DCFC that I would operate? Pay back seems like it might take a while. Now of course level 2 charging would be cheap to install. But I don’t see that as being a draw. Tesla did have optional dual on board chargers that let you chargers 72 amps. So that a dedicated 90 amp circuit. That option was short lived.

 

[woodgeek]

I'm warming to the idea of a Tesla, if they have decent offerings and value when my 2022 Bolt lease is up in Sept 2025.

I like smaller hatches, and also don't want RWD. I like the refresh on the Model 3 (Highland) from the reviews. If it has an LFP battery, and was cheap in FWD or AWD I would go for it. Maybe even the refreshed Y will be available then, who knows?

 

[EbS-P]

I'm warming to the idea of a Tesla, if they have decent offerings and value when my 2022 Bolt lease is up in Sept 2025.

I like smaller hatches, and also don't want RWD. I like the refresh on the Model 3 (Highland) from the reviews. If it has an LFP battery, and was cheap in FWD or AWD I would go for it. Maybe even the refreshed Y will be available then, who knows?

If you haven’t had the opportunity to pop the rear hatch and fold the seats down on a Model 3 you should. Take out the false floor and what you are left with is a cavernous space for the size of the vehicle. It’s not a true hatch but wow.

I’m not sure how useful the space is but I was impressed that all 5 of my kids could fit in it.

 

[EbS-P]

I personally have no issue with Tesla vehicles, and have recommended them to others who will be road-tripping a lot or need a more seamless fast-charging experience.

Five years ago when I bought my Bolt, Tesla was just ramping up production of the Model 3 and had vapor-launched the Model Y (the hatchback style I prefer to own). The problem for me, at the time, was that I wanted a hatchback and Tesla didn't have it. Also, I'm not a big fan of rear-wheel drive in the snow, so I would have had to buy their all-wheel drive (dual motor) option, which adds
$10k or so. I don't prefer but could get over their touch-screen for everything console. Five years ago there were legitimate concerns as to whether Tesla might be around for the life of a vehicle purchased in December of 2018.

At the end of the day, to get something that I wanted from Tesla I would have had to wait 2 years and spend another $20k. Not worth it to me then. Plus, I figured the abysmal DCFC network from 5 years ago would be mostly better by today (and it mostly is - it's been a long time since I had to reduce my speed to 50 mph to limp the distance to the next DCFC, and hope that it would work when I got there). Today's non-Tesla DCFC network isn't what I would design, but I can make it work (some couldn't, and a majority probably worry they couldn't).

Today if I were in the market for a new BEV, I don't think I would consider a Tesla. Their cars still seem expensive, the build quality seems to have declined, and reliability is average. I've also heard enough nightmare stories of Tesla insurance costs to give me pause (my Bolt costs me $100 more to insure compared to the compact car it replaced). The Tesla DCFC experience is superior, but I can manage the alternative, and the alternative does continue to improve, and it doesn't kill me to wait a little longer at a DCFC. Do I love waiting an hour to DCFC my car (1-1/4 hours or maybe more in the winter)? Of course not, but that is just what purchasing early technology relegates me to, and it wasn't worth $20k (back then) to save 15 hours a year for 10 years, and any car I buy in the future will charge a lot faster anyways.

I give Tesla credit for actually building cars and not just SUVs and trucks. If the other automakers continue their singular focus on SUVs and trucks, I might be in a Tesla in 5 years or so, regardless. The new Volvo EX30 gives me hope that there will be something to buy in a smaller BEV in the future, though I don't love the idea of buying something made (and designed) in China (for reliability and quality reasons).

Insurance is up across the board. Labor rates won’t go back down. Tesla Build quality is fine. Should be higher if you think they are luxury vehicles. I don’t. They latest reliability reports were very much dominated by the first years of production. They are not perfect but if they were all terrible we would know. I want to see a 5 year report on the ModelY. Then I think we would have some solid data that reflects current reliability tends. 2 years of ownership and nothing had needed replacing that wasn’t already broken when I got the X (axles) other than $300 to replace upper control arms. That’s the fix for squeaky ball joints to replace with new revision. Car is now over 7 years old.

 

[begreen]

Insurance is up across the board. Labor rates won’t go back down. Tesla Build quality is fine. Should be higher if you think they are luxury vehicles. I don’t. They latest reliability reports were very much dominated by the first years of production. They are not perfect but if they were all terrible we would know. I want to see a 5 year report on the ModelY. Then I think we would have some solid data that reflects current reliability tends. 2 years of ownership and nothing had needed replacing that wasn’t already broken when I got the X (axles) other than $300 to replace upper control arms. That’s the fix for squeaky ball joints to replace with new revision. Car is now over 7 years old.

And tires? At $1200-1600 a set, every 10k-12k miles, this adds up quickly.

 

[sneefy]

Tesla Build quality is fine.

Tesla Model Y Owners Find Cooling System Cobbled Together With Home Depot-Grade Fake Wood

The world's most valuable automaker, ladies and gentlemen.

www.thedrive.com

 

[EbS-P]

And tires? At $1200-1600 a set, every 10k-12k miles, this adds up quickly.

lol yeah. Most Teslas don’t have 750HP and 1000 ft lbs. admittedly I knew I picked a bad first set. This set will last longer. I have range mode (FWD bias) off and chill mode on which limits me to 275 HP and gentle torque curve.