Forecast Throught the Winter

[DriftWood]

NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071018_winteroutlook.html

“Even though December, January and February are likely to be milder than average for much of the country, people should still expect some typical winter weather this season,” said Halpert.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/images/djf08t_18oct07b.jpg

 

[jpl1nh]

Notice there are no likely to be colder than normal areas on the map. Heidi Cohan of the weather channel last night cited a statistic that atmospheric CO2 levels have increased at an average annual rate of 3.2% since 1999. Prior to 1999, the average rate was at a 1.9% pace. She pointed out that most projections for global warming have been based on the figures up to 1999. Yikes!!

 

[backpack09]

.... Please don't turn this into another Global warming is our fault rant....

The science doesn't make sense, and the statistics make less...

And it being 30% warmer means we will burn 30% less fuel producing 30% less emissions ... if that makes any sense to you.

Besides getting less of a return on my woodstove investment this year, I see a 30% warmer winter a good thing. Less money into heating, longer times for me to be out getting projects done before I get snowed in.

 

[Mike Wilson]

I don't care who caused global warming, if anyone. I just welcome it, and hope it prospers.

Now somebody Ash Can this thread so we can give it the proper beating that it deserves.

-- Mike

 

[BrotherBart]

The BroBart Weather Service predicts that if a government agency says we are going to have a warmer than normal winter then that means that there is a 100% chance that we are going to get hammered.

 

[jpl1nh]

.... Please don't turn this into another Global warming is our fault rant....

The science doesn't make sense, and the statistics make less...

And it being 30% warmer means we will burn 30% less fuel producing 30% less emissions ... if that makes any sense to you.

Besides getting less of a return on my woodstove investment this year, I see a 30% warmer winter a good thing. Less money into heating, longer times for me to be out getting projects done before I get snowed in.

Tough to talk weather without talking global warming. Seems on average thats where weather's going. I believe the biggest emissions issues are manufacturing and transportation, unfortunatly not heating. The science and statistics make enough sense that most every world leader including the recalcitrent G W feels we need to look at it. I personally agree with Mr. Gore that this is the greatest issue mankind has had to deal with (though nuclear war's pretty up there too) I think it keeps coming back to this discussion cause increasingly its every where around us. California's today's example.

 

[burntime]

What are we gonna call it in 10 or 20 years when the weather goes colder than normal? Global chilling? O no we put to little in the ozone??? ;~) Just do your part and thats all you can do. I personally do not put much faith in the guy who "invented the internet." I think he is the pawn spokesperson but hey, its good to believe in something...even if I do not agree it is still a worthy cause to fight for. We could probably all "clean up our act" a little more. Just my opinion...that and a buck will get you a cup of coffee. Good luck all.

 

[WarmGuy]

I don’t care who caused global warming, if anyone. I just welcome it, and hope it prospers.

I'm guessing you don't live in Southern California.

 

[jpl1nh]

What are we gonna call it in 10 or 20 years when the weather goes colder than normal? Global chilling?

Geeeze..you call it "ice age"! You know as strong as my concern is on this issue, there is a lot we don't know and IMHO ya have to have somekind of a sense of humor about it! I could use a cup of coffee about now. HEY DRIFTWOOD, now look what ya done!

 

[jpl1nh]

the adversary to global warming is global dimming wherein the particulates in the atmosphere block the sun's rays.

I'll bet you could draw a pretty strong correlation between the decrease in particulates from the reduction in use of pre EPA stoves and the resulting increase in average global temperatures.

 

[DiscoInferno]

The science doesn't make sense, and the statistics make less...

Quantum mechanics and Einstein's theory of special relativity both make no "sense", in the sense of being intuitive to the layman. Yet both have been exhaustively tested and confirmed. Science isn't conducted via plebiscite.

 

[karl]

enord, what was their conclusion? Is there a weblink about it?

 

[begreen]

Then we're all safe. There's no shortage of global dimming in the world today.

Karl, here's a link.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/

 

[wahoowad]

Government forecasters have called for worse than normal hurricane seasons the past 2 years. I think it has been the quietest 2 years in memory.

 

[BrotherBart]

Government forecasters have called for worse than normal hurricane seasons the past 2 years. I think it has been the quietest 2 years in memory.

It gets better. NOAA is calling for a warmer than normal winter while a few blocks over the Energy Department is calling for a colder than normal winter.

 

[jpl1nh]

Government forecasters have called for worse than normal hurricane seasons the past 2 years. I think it has been the quietest 2 years in memory.

Global warming predicts increased frequency and severity of hurricanes and storms in general but the Atlantic basin has not come thru with that in the last two years and the Pacific basin has been pretty quiet too. Weather events have a capricious randomness to them which confounds all of us. Even specific short term forecasts which really we are pretty good at for the most part still make fools of us some of the time. Longer term and broader statistical data shows trends but what do those mean? While we have lots of evidence and a correlation to theory, we've been down that road before and are wise to take our interpretations with a grain of salt. But in general while we make plenty of mistakes, our scientific methods more typically point us in the right direction. Statistical deviation is not unusual, only a small piece in a larger puzzle. Its not only NOAA or "government forecasts" that suggest this but private organizations such as Accuweather as well.

 

[DriftWood]

Additionally, the onset of La Niña means that drought will likely persist in the Mid Atlantic and the Southwest from Southern California into Arizona. In contrast, the drought forecast shows continued improvement for the Northeast and Great Lakes region, as well as the Northwest and northern Rockies.

Guess the wood pile will be wetter this year, That’s H²O not CO².

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/images/djf08p_18oct07b.jpg

 

[Corey]

Government forecasters have called for worse than normal hurricane seasons the past 2 years. I think it has been the quietest 2 years in memory.

I was just going to say - I hope this forecast is more accurate than the hurricane forecasts have been!

I think it just shows how much we really 'know' about the weather. It's hard as heck to predict 10 days into the future, much less a year or 50 years. I remember a time before the global warming scare when it was claimed that warmer weather would cause fewer hurricanes. Something about greater wind shear blowing the infant storms apart off the coast of Africa before they could ever become hurricanes.

I love burning the stove, but overall, I wish the weather would just be warmer!

Corey

 

[Dunadan]

Understand, often times when they say "warmer than normal" or "colder than normal" usually the difference is single digit difference.

For example, instead of the avg. temp being (just making something up) 32 degrees, a warmer than normal scenario would mean the avg. temp is a "blazing" 34 degrees.

 

[kalevi]

If they say we have 33% chance of being warmer than average, does that mean we have a 66% chance of it being colder?

 

[jpl1nh]

And for another perspective onthe winter forecast which really isn' all that different: http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp. My eyes glazed over a little reading it through the first time but it is quite interesting and informative.

 

[DriftWood]

And for another perspective onthe winter forecast which really isn' all that different: http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp. My eyes glazed over a little reading it through the first time but it is quite interesting and informative.

No thanks. I will take my weather forecasts add free. Besides I payed enough taxes to support the the guys in Boulder,CO to run those supper computer forecast programs. One of the few things, I get back from SAM The Tax Man.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service

http://www.weather.gov/

 

[jpl1nh]

And for another perspective onthe winter forecast which really isn' all that different: http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp. My eyes glazed over a little reading it through the first time but it is quite interesting and informative.

No thanks. I will take my weather forecasts add free. Besides I payed enough taxes to support the the guys in Boulder,CO to run those supper computer forecast programs. One of the few things, I get back from SAM The Tax Man.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service

http://www.weather.gov/

pop up blockers work wonders.

 

[DriftWood]

And for another perspective onthe winter forecast which really isn' all that different: http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp. My eyes glazed over a little reading it through the first time but it is quite interesting and informative.

No thanks. I will take my weather forecasts add free. Besides I payed enough taxes to support the the guys in Boulder,CO to run those supper computer forecast programs. One of the few things, I get back from SAM The Tax Man.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service

http://www.weather.gov/

pop up blockers work wonders.

The adds on the its page .

 

[DriftWood]

NCAR Celebrates the 2007 Nobel Prize for Peace

The director of NCAR, Tim Killeen, and president of UCAR, Rick Anthes, celebrate award of the 2007 Nobel Prize for Peace to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Albert Gore. Forty NCAR authors participated in the 2007 IPCC assessment report, along with computational, technical, and administrative staff from across NCAR and UCAR. http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/

http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/images_ncar/header_ncar2.jpg

Click to view one of NCAR's CCSM model animations for the IPCC.

http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/multimedia/movies/qt/ccsm_ipcc2.php