It's climate change, but what are the actual causes?

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kennyp2339

Minister of Fire
Feb 16, 2014
6,102
07462
So I saw a small little blip of a report a while back, I actually totally forgot about it for a bit but I then saw a short online video of Nicolaus Copernicus, that 1500's era scientist that made the theory of the earth revolving around the sun and the basic solar system / universe theory.
This got my wheels in my head turning, mainly when I'm doing an mindless tasks like mowing the lawn, (we all think about different things, its human nature) I was thinking about how the earth revolves around the sun predictably, and how time is a measurement of distance, but then I started thinking about climate change, I agree that humans have contributed to climate change, but its unfathomable to exactly understand how much damage we caused vs what happens in cycles of nature, like volcanos, asteroid impacts, sun flares and such.
What I was wondering and I hope someone much smarter adds insight to my question, is are we just experiencing bad timing? Like, as the earth revolves around the sun, is the orbit track just in a cycle that is closer, allowing for our winters to be slightly warmer which then cascades to faster springtime melts and plants the seeds for a warmer summer in general?
What I'm thinking while on my lawn mower, is that even possible to happen? how would one measure of plot the actual orbitational paths and match that to the past 10,000 years to get a better handle on patterns to match up to soil / ice samples that are being pulled to see how the past climate was? Should I sell my house and get a smaller yard so I dont think these things?
 

EatenByLimestone

Minister of Fire
Bad on you for independent thinking! Eat your peas!





I believe we will find out the sun is the root of all global warming.
 
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stoveliker

Minister of Fire
Nov 17, 2019
1,924
Long Island NY
We know it's not the orbit of the earth. The year has not gotten half a day shorter... (Think figure skating, arms wide,
rotate, arms close, rotate faster.)

It's not sun cycle; periodicity does not reflect in long term warming trend.

It's not sun illumination; we know precisely how many photons from the sun hit the earth. (Easy to measure.)

And CO2 is not a new idea. Arrhenius already had thought about this way before any of the political driving forces that influence today's debate existed.
 
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stoveliker

Minister of Fire
Nov 17, 2019
1,924
Long Island NY
Very good, down to earth piece linked to above.
 

EatenByLimestone

Minister of Fire
Let me ask a question:


Is there any scenario where there is global warming without the sun?
 

stoveliker

Minister of Fire
Nov 17, 2019
1,924
Long Island NY
No. It's always the sun. The energy in our geo system comes from the sun (and radioactive decay inside our planet).

The point is not that we warm the planet, but that we changed the heat exchange equations by having the atmosphere absorb more heat from the sun. (And all the caveats with humidity, clouds etc etc, which don't change the conclusion written above even if they do have an effect - similar to the discussion in that article linked to above.)

I.e. it's not the burning (heat production) that is the root cause. It's the changing atmosphere that is a consequence of burning carbon fuels that were not made from carbon recently extracted from the atmosphere.
 

SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
6,260
Downeast Maine
It's easy to say it's the sun, or some other natural factor when the end result is not changing the status quo. Think about that when ever you see some problem that has a solution of changing nothing.
 

fire_man

Minister of Fire
Feb 6, 2009
2,534
North Eastern MA
These graphs show a strong correlaton between CO2 and Temperature.

Correllation does not imply causation but dangit they sure overlap pretty well over 800,000 years.



screenshot_929.jpg




screenshot_930.jpg
 

Qvist

Burning Hunk
Mar 5, 2019
141
WV
The change in the orbit of the earth and it's tilt etc is all in the Milakovitch orbital cycles. The earth should be very slowly cooling based on them I believe. They match with the geologic record. The sun's intensity is based on sun spot numbers more sunspots more intensity and they have actually been falling lately all while the climate warms.
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2948/milankovitch-orbital-cycles-and-their-role-in-earths-climate/

 
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osagebow

Minister of Fire
Jan 29, 2012
1,682
Shenandoah Valley, VA
Experts on this have shown without a shadow of a doubt how human activity has caused this. Sifting through mountains of evidence to find a few scientists or ideas that suggest otherwise, without the corresponding weight of evidence, is akin to going to 500 different doctors to find one that says garlic cures cancer.
"Well, he IS a Doctor, isn't he?"