Ontario and their Green expectations

[Lake Girl]

Some politicians figure they can wave a magic wand to grant their wishes... I am all for green initiatives but this plan goes to far. With our electric rates in this province, no one could afford this plan. Forget about manufacturing investment... Not sure where that leaves wood or pellet burners.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-climate-change-1.3584402

 

[jb6l6gc]

kathleen wynn is a piece of friggen work. I dont know who elected her but it wasn't me. Every time I see her or hear her speak I get this unbelievable feeling of disgust!

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Hey! Stop giving our Looney politicians ideas!

 

[woodgeek]

Has the plan been published yet?
Or have we just seen the critics?

No FF heating in new construction after 2030 is a little different from a 'ban'

 

[Lake Girl]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...sweeping-climate-change-plan/article30029081/

"Last December, the auditor general found rate payers coughed up $37 billion more than necessary because of Liberal decisions to ignore their own expert policy advisors. That includes paying more than market rates for green energy programs and cancelling gas-fired power plants already underway.

Now, amid already high and ever-growing energy rates, the Liberals are set to propose more Ontarians use ever-more-expensive electricity to heat their homes..."
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/c...ion-says-over-reported-7-billion-climate-plan

 

[woodgeek]

Assuming they accurately reported the leaked plan....which was not still under discussion.

1. All homes must have an energy audit upon sale....adds a $300-500 transaction cost. My house had a HUGE energy bill after I bought it ($5000/yr). I wish I had known beforehand.
2. Big EV rebates...$14k per car to jumpstart adoption....not the cheapest carbon savings available, but a lot of long term potential once mass adoption takes off (and the subsidy ends)....which is likely after 2020.
3. An energy bank to finance energy retrofits....lots of US states have those, or equivalent....seem like a reasonable thing. You are paying in slowly to a fund. It makes sense for you to get a cheap retrofit, if you are already paying for it.
4. Energy retrofits will seek to reduce gas consumption.....not eliminate it in existing houses.
5. New building codes will reduce usage....will likely pay for themselves.....ban on gas heated new construction starts in 2030.

What's the problem?

 

[Lake Girl]

I caught the discussion on the other thread of the EV cars... Do you realize where I live? Still in Ontario barely but there is a vast temperature difference in winter between here and Toronto. How do they handle -50C? My little Spark (gas) takes quite a while to heat up. The average distance between communities of 1200 and 10000 is 40 km. We have one charging station in our area ... 80 kms away. The new ones the province is building are along the 401 ... Windsor through Toronto to Quebec.

The other point is electric rates in Ontario ...
After years of encouraging energy conservation, the OEB blames the recent mild winter and resulting drop in electricity usage for the latest rate increases. On May 1, 2016 the on-peak rate increases by .5 cents per kWh to 18 cents per kWh. Mid-peak power increases by .4 cents to 13.2 cents per kWh. Off-peak electricity also increases by .4 cents to 8.7 cents per kWh. (broken link removed to https://www.canadaenergy.ca/ontario-electricity-news)
Essentially double that cost for delivery fees ... The First Nations north of us have had to rely on diesel generators to provide their electricity in this province. Some of them are starting to install solar arrays but how well do those work in the winter with dwindling hours of daylight??

For my home, orientation and space limitation do not allow for solar array. If I could, I would figure out a way to cut the cord to the grid...

Add insult to injury, the province just sold off 60% of Hydro One (the monopoly utility) so any benefit we, as citizens, would have had just went mostly to Saudi Arabia.

Or have we just seen the critics?

Leaked copy of cabinet document ... in Globe and Mail but need a subscription to access after one article

 

[woodgeek]

As for EVs, there is little issue with cold. The drive motor, hardware and power electronics all work fine in the cold, and the battery just needs to be kept above some minimum temp to prevent the electrolyte from freezing, usually something like -25°C. My Leaf has an electric battery heater that kicks on at -20°C. This runs from the battery if its not plugged in (leading to depletion after several days if parked outside) or from grid power if its plugged in (not really different from a block heater). Other than that bit, the car performs normally, but with a ~30% reduced range due to cabin heater usage, snow tires, and higher air friction and battery losses at low temp. I have driven mine a few times after it sat out in -18°C, and it was a great handling, instant starting, no warm-up time winter car...with electric seat heaters in all 5 seats.

The country with the highest EV adoption is Norway, admittedly a warmer climate than yours, but cold nonetheless. They put in incentives, built out an extensive high speed charger network (Tesla and non), and have had EV sales %-es in the double digits for the last couple years. Their power grid, IIRC is mostly hydro. They now have some very evangelical EV drivers over there.

No need to drive to the next town to charge: 98% of charging will occur at home, easily scheduled to be at off-peak times. You only need high-speed chargers when you are 'road tripping'.

As for electricity cost to run EVs....figure 3 miles per kWh in the winter, 4 in the summer, call it 3.5 average, which converts to 17 kWh to go 100 km. Compared to a mid-sized ICE sedan that would get 8L/100km, and it means that you need about 2-2.5 kWh in an EV to go as far as 1L of gasoline. Since it looks like gasoline is around ~$1L up there, if your (retail, off-peak) kWh are less than 40-50 cents, the EV is cheaper to fuel, even with current low oil prices.

More to the point EVs are much simpler machines that ICE cars, that other than the battery are much cheaper to build and maintain. AS battery costs fall on a learning curve, EVs will get cheaper to build **overall** than ICE cars, as well as cheaper to maintain and to fuel. Projections are that 200+ mile range (maybe 130+ miles at -50°C) EVs will be cheaper than ICE cars to buy around 2020. 100 mile EVs have been cheaper to own (total cost of ownership) that ICE cars for several years already.

Imagine a world where Ontarians will WANT EVs because they will be great, fun, reliable and cheap cars. People will say where are the chargers? Where are the dealers? That aspect of the plan looks like it just wants to get the EV party started in the next few years, so that when mass adoption comes, the infrastructure is in place. $14k is a BIG incentive for an EV...higher than anything in the US, but might be a good idea to convince skeptical Canadians. If it works out like places in the states, those early adopters will get through the first winter, and convince all their neighbors that the cars are alright. What the article DIDN'T say was how many EVs would get the incentive....a million...for $14B dollars, or 50,000, for much less. By 2024 no incentives will be required.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

Other than that bit, the car performs normally, but with a ~30% reduced range due to cabin heater usage, snow tires, and higher air friction and battery losses at low temp.

As long as you don't need that 30% reduction in range. I'm sure you'd agree that could be a cold walk home. I could see where that inconvenience could be life or death for the ill prepared, elderly, or disabled.

 

[woodgeek]

As long as you don't need that 30% reduction in range. I'm sure you'd agree that could be a cold walk home. I could see where that inconvenience could be life or death for the ill prepared, elderly, or disabled.

Sure, hypothetically. The thing with range anxiety that people don't get it that its predictable. The decrease in range is v gradual as the temperature falls, and the car tells you how pretty accurately much range it has. People ask 'but what if you get stuck in traffic, huh? you will run of charge sitting in traffic'...except that in traffic the range goes UP, due to lower air friction at lower speed....so, really quite predictable.

No offense intended, but I have decided that people that habitually juggle numbers in their heads...no range anxiety. Those that can't figure a tip....lots of range anxiety.

That said, I think mass adoption will come at warm weather ranges of 200 miles, and that range anxiety (or equivalent rare-case utility concerns) have been holding back BEV sales of gen 1, non-Tesla BEVs, despite the already attractive total cost of ownership, TCO.

 

[begreen]

hat said, I think mass adoption will come at warm weather ranges of 200 miles, and that range anxiety (or equivalent rare-case utility concerns) have been holding back BEV sales of gen 1, non-Tesla BEVs, despite the already attractive total cost of ownership, TCO.

Add faster charging and one universal plug in system. I don't want to have to make a 2 hr pit stop for recharging on an already long trip. Nor do I want to drive 10 miles off the freeway to locate the nearest Tesla charger in a strange city, then wait 30-60 minutes to get going again. The Volt lets us do 80-90% of our driving on electric, but doesn't introduce range anxiety due to distance, traffic, weather etc..

 

[Lake Girl]

I would suggest you take a look at a map of Ontario ... an electric solution may be feasible for Norway or Pennsylvania or most of southern Ontario. Not so much for Emo in NW Ontario. As with most Ontario policies, this totally ignores many of the residents of the province ... there's a whole lot of remote in this province. CAA charging stations map - enlarge so you see how few charging stations there are in Northern Ontario ... http://www.caa.ca/evstations/ A fairer solution to all residents would be the EV incentives for southern Ontario/fuel efficient for Northern.

Distances ... Erie to Philly is a total of 420 miles; Cornwall to Kenora in Ontario is 2,027 - 2059km (1260m-1280m). The Ontario routes will not even get you charger to charger ie. Hearst to Nipigon is 402 km (250m). If I have to go see a specialist in Thunder Bay in the winter, I can't make it with an EV; even if the range was there, travel charging would be daytime rates which pushes it very close to your 40 cents/khw while adding 2.5 to 4.5 hours at best on a 4 hour trip (Atikokan to Thunder Bay is 206 km/128 m or Fort Frances to Atikokan is 151 km/94m). There is a whole lot of nothing between those chargers ... very different from Southern Ontario and Pennsylvania. By the time that changes in Northern Ontario, incentives will be gone as there is no point in buying an EV only to have it sit in the driveway. The only possible "solution" is a hybrid ... based on US MSRP Volt is $34,000 (38,400 Cdn) vs Spark non-EV $12,660 ($10,000 cdn). Even with the incentive, I would be paying double for the Volt and would still have to rely on gas. My tax dollars at work That doesn't even take into account variances in winter temps and snow-fall. The rated 5.7L/100km on the Spark is reasonably accurate - the 2013 Spark looks to be around 5.8L/100km as half our kms are gravel road. As to reducing emissions in Ontario, we have been doing our part since 1990 with domestic fuel efficient cars (Geo, Aveo, Spark) w/o incentives way before it was fashionable...

Your 98% charge at home doesn't work in my locale ... my home to the Fort Frances charger is roughly 73km/46m. Safeway, Canadian Tire, Wal-Mart reside in Fort Frances. While I do shop in Emo (half the distance), there are numerous times those stores do not carry what I need. The 92 m round trip in the winter would likely leave me walking...

It is a cold ride for the first 15 minutes of the drive to Emo in the Spark at -50C. Walking at that temp w/o wind leaves you about 10 minutes before frostbite hits. Dressed for cold temps while snow-blowing with the Kubota (not at -50C, it warms up to snow), I can handle the 1 hour +/- it takes but hands and feet aren't happy by the end.
(broken link removed to http://www.kake.com/home/headlines/How-quickly-does-frostbite-set-in-234626521.html)

Not even going to touch on heating a home with electric or geothermal lake loop ...

 

[begreen]

You're a tough cookie LG. I wouldn't last long in those winter conditions and for sure would want the best damn heater on the market in my car.

 

[Lake Girl]

You're a tough cookie LG. I wouldn't last long in those winter conditions and for sure would want the best damn heater on the market in my car.

I used to think Buffalo, NY winters were bad You learn quickly how to dress for cold. The Spark leaves you wanting for heat ... it was worse when we first got it but there was a software change when they realized the defrost wouldn't even keep up with humidity when it was raining We still have our one Aveo ... heating is much better with that vehicle but still doesn't compare to the truck! But then, mileage is not comparable either.

 

[woodgeek]

I hear you lake girl. I lived in the US midwest for many years, and walked 30 mins at -30°C air temp and a stiff wind plenty of times (didn't have a car). I also did some time in N Manitoba (in the summer), so I get the remote thing too, etc.

That said, in a few years, there will be a lot of cheaper and more capable (than today's) BEVs and plug-in hybrid cars that will be useful to many residents of Ontario. Now is a great time to start the transition, with new hardware rolling out in 2016...Volt2 and Bolt.

Canadians and US folks are high per capita carbon emitters, and both countries are on board with the Paris accords. Reducing emissions will require large-scale electrification of transportation and space heating, and increases in the efficiency of both as well. The leaked plan seems to be moving in a reasonable direction at a reasonable pace....my only criticism would be the EV incentive might be a little too generous.

 

[jebatty]

Who doesn't understand and appreciate the convenience of jumping into an ICE car or pickup truck and driving whenever, wherever wanted, without a second thought? Even the cost of gasoline/diesel, license, maintenance, insurance and depreciation are blurred into the background. This is true both for short drives, 2-20k, as well as the longer trips. But who also remembers how recent this phenomenon is?

Back in the early 60's my car was a 1950 Ford, 6 volt battery, coil ignition, which if it didn't start on the first try or two in cold weather meant it wouldn't start until the temperatures warmed, or unless I brought the battery in the house to warm-up and charge-up. Warm-up? ... not this hunk of cold metal. Heating and defrosting were forever a challenge.

Now drop back a few more years, into the 50's, and I remember the first stretch of 4-lane interstate, about 8 miles, opened near where I lived in southern Minnesota. Before that and even for a long time after that narrow, 2-lane roads, Not too many long "convenience" trips then. Travel was a chore. And in the early 50's or earlier yet, most roads between small towns, and even in the towns, were gravel. Flat tires and breakdowns were the norm. The ICE vehicle was a luxury.

The point simply is that we have lived long enough in a motor vehicle culture and we have developed a motor vehicle centered economy that most of us forget how recent this is and now think it impossible to live any other way. And I forgot to mention the environmental destruction, disease, adverse health consequences, and climate change our love affair with the convenience the ICE vehicles have bestowed on us.

We all can be different; our economies, cities and travel-centered culture can change; our world can be better, much better. Costly? ... not really when all the costs of carbon based fuels are accounted for. A worse life? ... not likely when the joys of family, relationships, and closer knit communities are considered, not to mention the time freed up by reduction of all those hours in a vehicle, sitting in traffic, spending endless time just to get to and from a place of employment.

I see a future of not not only the possibility but also the probability of a better world. It is clear that the frustrations being expressed in the political systems, in issues over food supply, in lack of clean water, in environmental destruction, in the yearning for more simple living, etc. -- all of these and more show that big change is needed. Electricity powered vehicles are not the only answer, but they point a way to a change in culture that has many benefits.

After all, not to change is to die, and that may be where the world is headed unless radical change occurs.

 

[Lake Girl]

I don't disagree with change. I disagree with change that utilizes large amounts of tax dollars indiscriminately while forcing options that are not realistic for large portions of the province. The track record of the province is ridiculous. Geothermal is not realistic in more urban areas w/o huge expense of drilling a vertical shaft and horizontal lay-out requires large tracts of property only available to more rural locales. Installation cost was excessive for a lake loop when checked over 10 years ago and that doesn't appear to have changed. Electricity as the sole source of heat is ridiculous from a cost standpoint not including temperature variances in the province which skews it more. While the province may (or may not) look favourably on bio-mass heat, insurance companies have large surcharges if used as a primary source of heat (if insurable at all) and the province would have to correct that problem if they want to move from fossil fuels.
http://www.ecohome.net/guide/geothermal-heating-cooling

As to the energy audit, we had one about 7-8 years ago with little that would have supported retro-fit and they were surprised by the low air infiltration on the blower test.

not to mention the time freed up by reduction of all those hours in a vehicle, sitting in traffic, spending endless time just to get to and from a place of employment.

Our commute to work has no sitting idle in traffic jams ... just wildlife dodging. Our trade-off for a longer commute was based on only maintaining one household (rather than the local norm of one home, one vacation property), fuel efficient vehicle and removal from industry air emissions environment from both sides of the border. The travel time has provided for thinking and/or bonding time due to fewer distractions ... Hubby still uses his commute to chat with the kids using hands free.

When my son bought his first car, we encouraged him to buy new specifically new and fuel efficient. He took a lot of ribbing over his small car (as we have) from co-workers (IT installers/servicing) until they realized how much fuel he saved. Smaller cars started to show up in the parking lot beside his While an EV *might* make sense for him with cheaper electric rates in Manitoba and his daily commute, he wouldn't be able to make it home (ours) with limitations of distance and want of charging stations between Winnipeg and home ....

The CAA map above shows the only charging station between Winnipeg and our home is Kenora

 

[saskwoodburner]

As for EVs, there is little issue with cold. The drive motor, hardware and power electronics all work fine in the cold, and the battery just needs to be kept above some minimum temp to prevent the electrolyte from freezing, usually something like -25°C. My Leaf has an electric battery heater that kicks on at -20°C.

This runs from the battery if its not plugged in (leading to depletion after several days if parked outside) or from grid power if its plugged in (not really different from a block heater). Other than that bit, the car performs normally, but with a ~30% reduced range due to cabin heater usage, snow tires, and higher air friction and battery losses at low temp. I have driven mine a few times after it sat out in -18°C, and it was a great handling, instant starting, no warm-up time winter car...with electric seat heaters in all 5 seats.

T

What happens when it gets colder than you mention above? A car sitting out in -18 C weather is pretty mild compared to -35 or -40 C. What happens then to battery reserve power?

 

[woodgeek]

What happens when it gets colder than you mention above? A car sitting out in -18 C weather is pretty mild compared to -35 or -40 C. What happens then to battery reserve power?

Oh I agree. Its just in my current location.....that's the coldest it gets in my personal experience.

Much below that, it turns on it heater to maintain the battery above -20°C....I suspect that a full charge would suffice to run the battery heater in remote parking for several days. Since the battery doesn't get any colder than -20°C, it should not lose any more performance.

Parked at home and plugged in, it would stay warmed up forever just like a block heater. In my experience, a lot of ICE vehicles need a block heater for extended parking at -30°C too.

My point was that I have had a lot more problems with ICE vehicles getting started in the cold than my Leaf....just press a button and go. Electric seat and cabin heat was instant on. If I had to go less than 50 miles, no concerns whatsoever.

Edit: the battery has a 'passive' air cooling system tied into a scoop in the small front grill. I have read that in areas with real winter, some folks will zip tie some sheet good over the grill once it gets to well below 0°C, and they report a range/endurance improvement in extreme cold.

 

[Lake Girl]

Came across this site which was kind of interesting ... http://www.befrugal.com/tools/electric-car-calculator/ Comparing the Chev Volt to our Spark, 15 years to break even

Edit: BTW, that was an Aveo not a Spark; Leaf vs. Aveo 14.9 years...
Would love to see a break-down of a EV Spark vs ICE Spark.

What happens when it gets colder than you mention above? A car sitting out in -18 C weather is pretty mild compared to -35 or -40 C. What happens then to battery reserve power?

While ICE cars also suffer a loss of mileage in extreme cold, EVs suffer greater loss...
http://www.plugincars.com/electric-car-drivers-report-cold-weather-impact-129218.html
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorz...ic-cars-range-by-more-than-half/#d8493c926d7e

 

[woodgeek]

Simply don't agree with the numbers from Forbes. We get 90 miles under temperate conditions or hot conditions, lose 10 miles going to snow tires, and lose about 20 miles more for a total of 60 miles left at 10°F.

Dropping to 30 something miles at 30°F.....um NO.

Part of the difference might be blasting the cabin heater and defrost. We use the seat heaters and keep the cabin cooler, like 60°F without too much airflow.

 

[saskwoodburner]

Just because you don't agree with Forbes numbers, doesn't make their findings less valid. Your experience is only good for your own situation.

I only burn 2.5 cubic feet of wood on a cold day....that doesn't mean you, in a different climate and home, should only need 2.5 based on the fact that (that) is all I use, and is all I would ever use. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for EV advancements. But you come across as too much of an optimist when presented with a different climate.

-40 C is taxing even on gas vehicles and their electrical systems. How do you suppose you would see out your windshield running minimal defrost? Seat warmers aren't going to help you see (although seat warmers are the bomb!) going down the highway.

What if you slide in the ditch and have to wait hours for a tow truck or get stuck?

 

[woodgeek]

Sigh. I disagree with the Forbes numbers that describe my situation, and do so inaccurately based upon my first hand experience. The article claims that Leaf range drops by -58% at 20°F. I am telling you that that is absurd based upon my own first-hand experience at that temperature and below. I am seeing more like a 35% drop down to 0°F, and that is partially due to snow tires.

As for your concern...correct, I do not drive around in the winter with the windows all fogged up and unable to see. We do use defrost settings and cabin heat in the winter time. We just don't put it on 'max' and leave it there 100% of the time. That is the only way I can **imagine** getting the mileage that low. I could also drive an ICE car around with the handbrake on, and then write about how ICE cars get bad mileage...and did you know that the hand-brakes fail too often?

It also appears that you misunderstand my situation and think I live in Florida, and have never logged any miles below 50°F. In my first post I was careful to report a modest decrease in range, and at what temps my first-hand experience extends to. IF you would prefer to think the car shuts down and becomes a brick a couple degrees colder than my experience...so be it. But that is neither what the Forbes article says, nor what thousands of Leaf drivers in Norway report.

In summary: my wife and I have to drive in black ice, light snow and temps down to the single °F and we have found the leaf to be the best winter car we have ever owned....it starts reliably, warms up the cabin and seats quickly, and its low weight distribution and traction control give it amazing handling on ice and snow (w/ snow tires). While the range does drop as much as 35% at our winter temps, that is not a problem for **us**.

Based on that experience, I can conclude that future 200+ mile BEVs will also be great, reliable winter cars, contrary to the intuition of non-EV drivers that think that all batteries stop working below freezing, and Forbes magazine. Whether the BEVs will be useful in Northernmost Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, will depend on the fraction of trips owners will need to take in the dead of winter that are well over 100 miles, whether it is their second car (as here) and the future presence of high-speed chargers there, which is unknown.

 

[Jags]

I still think a Leaf would look funny trying to tow my boat. Just say'in....

 

[Lake Girl]

their second car (as here)

I guess that is my bottom line with all my calculations and musings. If the economics of a family dictate only one vehicle, depending on their situation, an EV may not a realistic choice.

The Toyota RAV4 has both EV and ICE models for comparison, the break even is 7.7 years just on operating costs and with the $14,000 incentive (not sure if that is the actual amount). At what point does battery replacement kick in?

The carbon footprint of equal vehicles is EV=2.8 vs. ICE=5.3. That is assuming that your electricity is generated from non-FF sources... Natural gas is still in the mix for Ontario even though the coal-fire plants have been taken out of the stream.