Peak Oil -New definition

peakbagger

Minister of Fire
Jul 11, 2008
5,834
Northern NH
I remember the long threads from years back about Peak Oil. The definition then was the world was going to run out of oil and civilization would collapse as the price of oil went sky high. These days Peak Oil is still in the news but the definition has now changed that the demand is dropping so rapidly that there is still going to be plenty of oil in the ground but not enough demand to make it worth pumping it.

Who would have thought?
 
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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
Covid is the primary driver of the lower consumption right now. Smart people are being hermits. Dumb people are getting the virus and dying. I know where I stand, do ypu?
 

brenndatomu

Minister of Fire
Aug 21, 2013
5,834
NE Ohio
Yah, imagine that, too much oil...oil/gas, coal, wood...it was all placed in/on this blue ball as a resource for us to use...but if us humans could just stop using it, we can stop climate change...riiiigghht...
 

semipro

Minister of Fire
Jan 12, 2009
3,941
SW Virginia
...but if us humans could just stop using it,
Like any other limited resource, it's not a matter of stopping our use, it's more a matter of how we use it, how fast we use it, what impact it has, and whether our ecosystem can handle the waste.
I truly believe we're going to look back one day and ask "what the heck were we thinking burning this stuff?"
 
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Sawset

Minister of Fire
Feb 14, 2015
1,113
Palmyra, WI
There also was a time of "peak wood" (or whatever to call it) just prior to coal and the industrial revolution. Lots of alarm bells then too. Wood was in short supply with a bleak future ahead, till coal use took over. Is now any different, peak oil, bleak outlook, electric taking over (coal, but also hydro and nuclear).
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
85,996
South Puget Sound, WA
Yah, imagine that, too much oil...oil/gas, coal, wood...it was all placed in/on this blue ball as a resource for us to use...but if us humans could just stop using it, we can stop climate change...riiiigghht...
They said that once about whale oil too. Didn't work out great after awhile. Wood, regenerates in a relatively short 50 yr or so cycle. That is many magnitudes less than millions of years old carbon. There is a difference between using any resource and abusing it.

The addiction to oil is a relatively new phenomenon. When power and transportation no longer need to come from carbons stored millions of years ago then the demand will drop considerably. Agriculture is also starting to make a transition to a more regenerative phase.
 
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Sawset

Minister of Fire
Feb 14, 2015
1,113
Palmyra, WI
Would electric not be abused? Tesla, 2.3s 0-60. That's still burning up something somewhere.
 
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begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
85,996
South Puget Sound, WA
Would electric not be abused? Tesla, 2.3s 0-60. That's still burning up something somewhere.
Absolutely yes. I have never bought into the ludicrous need for that level of acceleration.
 

ABMax24

Minister of Fire
Sorry, but I disagree with the premise of this thread, a 9% reduction in global oil consumption is relatively small given the wide-sweeping lifestyle changes in the past year due to Covid. The US EIA is predicting only 3% less consumption for 2021 when compared with 2019, pretty much business as usual.

 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
85,996
South Puget Sound, WA
Sorry, but I disagree with the premise of this thread, a 9% reduction in global oil consumption is relatively small given the wide-sweeping lifestyle changes in the past year due to Covid. The US EIA is predicting only 3% less consumption for 2021 when compared with 2019, pretty much business as usual.

Could be right, demand growth from China and India is a major factor, but then again many current forecasts are based on past data. OPEC's forecasts are down 1 BB/day from last year's forecast. We shall see.
 

ABMax24

Minister of Fire
In the news today. Denmark just pulled the plug on new drilling.

That's not quite correct, Denmark has stopping issuing new licenses so new "lands" can't be explored and developed, existing licenses can still be explored, drilled and developed.

Part of this is because only one company was interested in acquiring new licenses, probably because the remaining "lands" had little economic value.

Besides the 100,000 bpd Denmark produces is a drop in the bucket, I was working on a SAGD site this spring that is 12,000 bpd, and it was only one of about 20 such facilities in a 60 mile radius.
 

SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
At my age, I'm not concerned at all actually. Just topped off my 1000 gallon bulk tank. I figure the price of diesel is about to go up...appreciably. One thing to remember, the price of fuel goes up for us (farmers) we pass that cost onto you (consumer). Viscous circle isn't it? Lets not even get into plug in electric cars. People conveniently forget where the power comes from to power their 'green' machines. that in reality aren't green at all. Just a 'feel good' thing.

I always feel good when I start up one of my turbocharged diesel tractors. Love that sound
 
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ABMax24

Minister of Fire
Could be right, demand growth from China and India is a major factor, but then again many current forecasts are based on past data. OPEC's forecasts are down 1 BB/day from last year's forecast. We shall see.
But that's still less than a 1% reduction.

Quite frankly the best outcome to foster a reduction in oil demand is a spike in oil prices. My guess is this will happen sometime in 2022 or 2023 as life returns to "normal", and after the recovery from the next stock market correction, which I would expect sometime in mid 2021.
 

ABMax24

Minister of Fire
Lets not even get into plug in electric cars. People conveniently forget where the power comes from to power their 'green' machines. that in reality aren't green at all. Just a 'feel good' thing.
There's a massive difference in CO2 emissions between a combined cycle natural gas powerplant operating at >60% efficiency to charge an EV battery and a gasoline powered car that operates at sub 30% efficiency.
 
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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
There's a massive difference in CO2 emissions between a combined cycle natural gas powerplant operating at >60% efficiency to charge an EV battery and a gasoline powered car that operates at sub 30% efficiency.
Like I said, don't much care really. I like my V8 Suburban too.

Far as the petroleum correction, try May or June next year I'm thinking 4 bucks a gallon for weasel pee ethanol and 8 for diesel (on road), off road will be about 6 and all I use is off road anyway.

That is for the US. Far as your per liter cost, I haven't a clue and don't want to know 'cause I'm not visiting anyway.
 

peakbagger

Minister of Fire
Jul 11, 2008
5,834
Northern NH
Hindsight is 20/20 but most of us will not live long enough to see enough time span to see the curve consistently trended down. We already are seeing weather shifts associated with changed climate. The big oil companies, are all dumping long term reserves and many of them are making decisions now to reduce their fossil investments and shifting to other investments. Yes there is a Covid blip in the system but many predictions are its going to make a long term shift in fuel demand.

Transportation fuels is a big part of demand and with the rapid improvement in batteries anyone who is still doing a routine commute is going to look hard at an electric even if they are still commuting. Its highly likely the new fuel economy standards for trucks passed during the last administration will go back in effect and that is going to raise the cost of new fossil trucks and viable electric trucks are going to be showing up in showrooms in the next two years. https://news.yahoo.com/automakers-prep-stronger-mileage-standards-174706314.html

Toyota is up to 400 mile range in their hydrogen vehicles and that is basically electric efficiency and low carbon impact in a fuel that can be refueled out of a pump. The firms that sell gas turbines are switching their fleet over to be capable of running on hydrogen as they see the writing on the wall. RIght now hydrogen is mostly coming from fossil but there has been some major improvements in green hydrogen to the point where its getting close.

There are gigawatts of off shore windturbine projects just waiting to be deployed off the east coast, they got delayed by the current administration but " a stroke of pen" by a new one is all that is needed to rescind the roadblock and once they go in, they are not coming out. Major banks and financial firms across the board have stopped long term lending for large fossil power plants including gas as their analysis is there is risk that the plants will economically stranded long before the payments are stopped being due.
 
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Easy Livin’ 3000

Minister of Fire
Dec 23, 2015
2,868
SEPA
Yah, imagine that, too much oil...oil/gas, coal, wood...it was all placed in/on this blue ball as a resource for us to use...but if us humans could just stop using it, we can stop climate change...riiiigghht...
Yep, placed here all for us.

If you are going to be this way, learn the story and lesson of the first two who ate the forbidden fruit and were cast out, and study the teachings of the magic man in the second book. Don't just pick the parts that make you think it's all about you. And maybe the apple is intended to be a metaphor for fossil fuels, among other things.

I'm not religious and don't intend for this to be a religious discussion. That said, im sure a student of valuable lessons, and there are valuable lessons for humanity in that book that I do truly believe. Greed, gluttony, and hubris are most certainly proscribed as bad there.
 
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Sawset

Minister of Fire
Feb 14, 2015
1,113
Palmyra, WI
Greed, gluttony, and hubris are most certainly proscribed as bad there.
On my way home from work there is an intersection to stop at. Just past it is a 3/4mi long hill to climb, then pretty much smooth from there on. Most times I just ramp up the rpm to such and such, move along, get it done, as most others do. And occasionally having to avoid the race car drivers who like to test their skills, but rarely. One time I stopped behind one of those teslas. Nice car. Very rare around these parts. It took off like a shot and was gone out of sight in seconds. What transpired was a stupid joke. Dozens of cars turning into arshol mania trying to punch it to the top. I'm all for fine tuning what we have, making the world a better place, enjoying the benefits of a cleaner world, leaving it better than we found it. But oh joy, looking forward to the increased performance, and that 60% vs 30% efficiency being wasted immediatly.
 

Easy Livin’ 3000

Minister of Fire
Dec 23, 2015
2,868
SEPA
On my way home from work there is an intersection to stop at. Just past it is a 3/4mi long hill to climb, then pretty much smooth from there on. Most times I just ramp up the rpm to such and such, move along, get it done, as most others do. And occasionally having to avoid the race car drivers who like to test their skills, but rarely. One time I stopped behind one of those teslas. Nice car. Very rare around these parts. It took off like a shot and was gone out of sight in seconds. What transpired was a stupid joke. Dozens of cars turning into arshol mania trying to punch it to the top. I'm all for fine tuning what we have, making the world a better place, enjoying the benefits of a cleaner world, leaving it better than we found it. But oh joy, looking forward to the increased performance, and that 60% vs 30% efficiency being wasted immediatly.
Yes, we tend to do this, it's all part of the condition. Another example is buying low fat food, and feeling justified in eating lots of it, just switching the kind of calories. I suspect most electric cars will have acceleration capacity far above the ice cars they are replacing. And I suspect that there will be plenty of folks who won't be able to handle it and end up in the ditch, or worse. Although I understand they are building technology to stop or at least greatly reduce the accidents.
 

DBoon

Minister of Fire
Jan 14, 2009
1,217
Central NY
US EIA is predicting only 3% less consumption for 2021 when compared with 2019,
US EIA predications are historically laughably bad - just look at reports for any year in the last 15 years predicting growth of solar and wind (renewables). Always wrong, by huge amounts. Nearly all of their predictions are based on very simplistic trend continuance. They are incapable of predicting when the knee of the demand curve may occur (either up or down).

I'm not saying that they won't be right, but don't take their predictions at face value. This could be the knee of the curve for oil demand...or may not be. We'll know when it is behind us.

As the Saudis have been reported to say "the stone age didn't end because the world ran out of stones". Simple presence of oil, even at low prices, does not guarantee stable or increasing demand.
 

DBoon

Minister of Fire
Jan 14, 2009
1,217
Central NY
People conveniently forget where the power comes from to power their 'green' machines.
I don't conveniently forget anything about the source of power for my electric car - I know it comes from my 15 kW solar array. I know that because I plug it in to charge when it is sunny and producing power. And if I didn't, that solar power output is offsetting other power generation - the power is not being wasted.

20% of US power comes from renewables (hydro, solar, wind). 20% comes from nukes. 20% comes from coal. The balance is largely natural gas. It varies state by state. It's a lot cleaner than that in upstate NY (85% nuclear, hydro or wind.

What was true of the grid 15 years ago (coal supplied 50% of US electricity) is not true today. And that is true of nearly every state, including most historically 90%+ coal-sourced electricity states.
 

Easy Livin’ 3000

Minister of Fire
Dec 23, 2015
2,868
SEPA
I don't conveniently forget anything about the source of power for my electric car - I know it comes from my 15 kW solar array. I know that because I plug it in to charge when it is sunny and producing power. And if I didn't, that solar power output is offsetting other power generation - the power is not being wasted.

20% of US power comes from renewables (hydro, solar, wind). 20% comes from nukes. 20% comes from coal. The balance is largely natural gas. It varies state by state. It's a lot cleaner than that in upstate NY (85% nuclear, hydro or wind.

What was true of the grid 15 years ago (coal supplied 50% of US electricity) is not true today. And that is true of nearly every state, including most historically 90%+ coal-sourced electricity states.
Yes, the tired and false talking points about centralized energy generation being as bad as a bunch of ices spewing their own pollution is, well, tired.
 
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Sawset

Minister of Fire
Feb 14, 2015
1,113
Palmyra, WI
We get a formal report every year from the farmer renting land for growing crops. It's been about 12yrs now that the report includes the micro nutrient sulpher being added to balance requirements from soil tests. Prior to that, tests showed neutral to an abundance of sulpher. Hmm, low atmospheric sulphur?, wonder how that happened.
 

Easy Livin’ 3000

Minister of Fire
Dec 23, 2015
2,868
SEPA
We get a formal report every year from the farmer renting land for growing crops. It's been about 12yrs now that the report includes the micro nutrient sulpher being added to balance requirements from soil tests. Prior to that, tests showed neutral to an abundance of sulpher. Hmm, low atmospheric sulphur?, wonder how that happened.
Is low atmospheric sulphur a good thing or a bad thing for you?