I think I fixed it. I was editing it when you were looking at it.
Peak Oil -New definition
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SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
tbear853
Feeling the Heat
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
tbear853
Feeling the Heat
When I read this my first thought was honestly "Bureau of Land Management?"
I would have shared the graphic using a different link if I'd known there was political stuff there.
NOAA report on the massive arctic wildfires in Siberia:
apnews.com
Vast wildfires in Siberia linked to warming Arctic
WASHINGTON (AP) — This year's vast wildfires in far northeastern Russia were linked to broader changes in a warming Arctic, according to a report Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
apnews.com
Did you mean La Niña? We are still in a La Niña cycle that started in Aug/Sep 2020.
ENSO and Global Seasonal Climate Updates
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation has a major influence on climate patterns in various parts of the world. This naturally occurring phenomenon involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the atmosphere. Scientific progress on the...
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
Thank you for the correction.Did you mean La Niña? We are still in a La Niña cycle that started in Aug/Sep 2020.
.ENSO and Global Seasonal Climate Updates
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation has a major influence on climate patterns in various parts of the world. This naturally occurring phenomenon involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the atmosphere. Scientific progress on the...public.wmo.int
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
It affects this side as well. We really felt the El Nino our first winter in Maine (2018-2019) with a lot of ice, frozen rain, sleet, etc. I'm hoping this year is more snow and less ice like last year. I definitely don't pay attention as much as someone on your side of the world, so I do appreciate the correction.
So far things have been warmer than average here.
That works. Put in other terms, the earth is about 4.6 billion years old, let's scale that down to 46 years. In that context, we have been on this planet for 4 hours. The industrial revolution began a minute ago.
Easy Livin’ 3000
Minister of Fire
Normally this illustration of time relativity is used by climate change deniers to claim that humans are irrelevant to the earth's condition, but I know that isn't your intent.
It's remarkable that we've been able to do so much damage in such a short amount of time, and have built the capability to wipe everything out in just a few hours. And now have so little willingness to fix what we've done. The problem is illustrated all the time throughout this short human history, and is on full display now- those with bad intent are willing to go to any length to get what they want, and those with good intent require impending annihilation before they will fight back with the same resolve. Not humankind's finest quality. Pertinent so close to December 7, a date that is a stark reminder of this "reluctant hero" nature.
Take the combination of the number of people and the rapid advance of technology, throw in some insatiable greed and the completely irrational belief that some all powerful being out in space only wants the best for us, and you have the recipe for an unhappy future.
There is reason for hope, though. Hopefully that is not also irrational.
SpaceBus
Minister of Fire
If you give a person a problem and there are two answers and one of them is to do nothing, most folks will choose doing nothing. You can't pay someone to care, but you can definitely pay someone not to care.
This seems like it might be a big deal.
www.cnn.com
Exclusive: A $5 billion foundation literally founded on oil money is saying goodbye to fossil fuels
The Rockefeller Foundation, a 107-year-old philanthropy built by oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller, is breaking up with fossil fuels in an effort to save the planet.
We haven't had the stock market correction yet......when's the next guess? The markets have continued to reach ATH. Are we In the roaring 20's right now and the floor will drop soon?
I wish I had that crystal ball.
I'm banking on a period of stagnation before a correction will occur, I think consumer sales over black friday and Christmas will be underwhelming, interest rates are rising along with inflation, governments (especially Biden) are dead set on trying to artificially push down oil prices as a last ditch effort to curb inflation. I think the realization is coming that stock markets are hitting ATH's because of an increased money supply and not because of an increase in actual value.
I didn't think world leaders were dumb enough to increase money supplies by the amounts they have, which has continued to kick the can down the road in regards to a market correction. The unfortunate thing is inflation will be overshadowed in the media by the discovery of the latest Covid variant, and the money printers will remain set to max while the economy comes last yet again to other priorities.
With that......reward continues to shadow risk of the markets? Keeping money in the markets may continue to be the way to go for personal financial security. The slippery slope continues. Want to watch something interesting.....watch the 1hr show called The Power of the Fed on pbs. It should be on YouTube.
![[Hearth.com] Peak Oil -New definition](https://www.hearth.com/talk/data/attachments/286/286504-ae48eb9f9ec4d85e473971501effffa7.jpg?hash=2JHoe5ZYdL "[Hearth.com] Peak Oil -New definition")
The oceans are absorbing the heat at an alarming rate. It has been said to be the equivalent of 5 Hiroshima atomic bombs a second currently. This mind-boggling number is unfathomable but in graph form it's clearly a bad trend. The consequences are showing up for us this month. On the coast the small town of Quilayute has seen over 40" of rain so far this month. The average for November is 20". Another 10" is expected there before the month ends. The city of Vancouver is completely cut off from the rest of Canada due to massive floods wiping out all road and rail transportation routes. Last summer a pufferfish washed up on a beach in Vancouver. Normally they are not seen north of San Diego.
Oceans are warming at the same rate as if five Hiroshima bombs were dropped in every second | CNN
The world's oceans are now heating at the same rate as if five Hiroshima atomic bombs were dropped into the water every second, scientists have said.
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Yeah that's my thoughts, a person can't afford not to have their money invested, inflation will erode it away quickly. Keeping money in the stock market is a brilliant plan, until it isn't....
I think you all have a bad attitude...and politics are making it worse at least for me...I agree with all of you and we need to just get wiser and there are many things to worry about and one personal thing for me is 5 G---talking about warming things...give this thread a ending real soon...clancey
I don't have a crystal ball, but I have read a lot of studies on US stock returns over the last several decades.
Its clear that something like index investing (buying the whole market) is a no-brainer stupid way to go, and beats inflation by ~5% per year long term, in effect doubling your investment in real terms in like 15 years or so. On average.
People who try to time the market do worse than buy and hold. Consistently. People that do stock picking (without timely real technical or insider info) also lose money relative to buy and hold. Consistently.
The conundrum is 'how can the market go up and up forever?' A very reasonable question. Stocks go up because the economy grows faster than inflation, due to higher per capita money AND higher productivity AND due to population growth. Those factors together get you close to the 5% real figure (above) long-term.
In practice, the (indexed) market between recessions goes up more like 8% real on average, doubling in real terms in about 5-6 years rather than 15 years! This is NOT sustainable.
Corrections (>10% drops) happen a lot, for a lot of reasons, and are impossible to time, and they are short lived (like months) so they are easy to survive and pass quickly. Corrections bounce back, even severe ones like 1987.
The major issue is genuine recessions. The major drops during real recessions reset those 8% gains to 5% long-term gains. If you invest a lump sum right before a recession drop, it will take you years to get back your money. If you retire based on assets valued right before a recession, then maybe you can not afford to be retired like you thought, and take years to catch up or go broke in an edge case.
If you could time just the recession drops, you COULD make 8% returns forever, but this is very hard. That is the only crystal ball you need or want.
As for the present, yeah, valuations look high, esp in tech. Productivity is super high right now. Demographics in the US look great. Both of these factors support the 5% base growth rate, and were not the case btw 10-15 years ago. We will certainly have little bumps with COVID waves (as for the 18 mos, during the build up of the wave), and corrections can ALWAYS happen.
But the only question is will there be a true recession. Buying and job creation are through the roof (which looks like we are super far from a recession), but sentiment is nearly as bad as 2009 (which suggests were are in a recession). So which do you believe more? I happen to think the sentiment suppression is politics- (and thus media-) driven (on both sides of the aisle) and the economy is booming.
Ofc a lot of recessions are triggered by spikes in oil prices. But I don't see that happening here, since it looks like oil is already dropping (ofc it could spike again, who knows) AND bc the share of the economy going to pay for oil is tiny compared to decades ago.
I'm not saying the economy is booming at a level to justify current valuations, but enough that a recession is nowhere in sight. Risk on, and enjoy the 8% returns (and don't sweat the dips).
Its clear that something like index investing (buying the whole market) is a no-brainer stupid way to go, and beats inflation by ~5% per year long term, in effect doubling your investment in real terms in like 15 years or so. On average.
People who try to time the market do worse than buy and hold. Consistently. People that do stock picking (without timely real technical or insider info) also lose money relative to buy and hold. Consistently.
The conundrum is 'how can the market go up and up forever?' A very reasonable question. Stocks go up because the economy grows faster than inflation, due to higher per capita money AND higher productivity AND due to population growth. Those factors together get you close to the 5% real figure (above) long-term.
In practice, the (indexed) market between recessions goes up more like 8% real on average, doubling in real terms in about 5-6 years rather than 15 years! This is NOT sustainable.
Corrections (>10% drops) happen a lot, for a lot of reasons, and are impossible to time, and they are short lived (like months) so they are easy to survive and pass quickly. Corrections bounce back, even severe ones like 1987.
The major issue is genuine recessions. The major drops during real recessions reset those 8% gains to 5% long-term gains. If you invest a lump sum right before a recession drop, it will take you years to get back your money. If you retire based on assets valued right before a recession, then maybe you can not afford to be retired like you thought, and take years to catch up or go broke in an edge case.
If you could time just the recession drops, you COULD make 8% returns forever, but this is very hard. That is the only crystal ball you need or want.
As for the present, yeah, valuations look high, esp in tech. Productivity is super high right now. Demographics in the US look great. Both of these factors support the 5% base growth rate, and were not the case btw 10-15 years ago. We will certainly have little bumps with COVID waves (as for the 18 mos, during the build up of the wave), and corrections can ALWAYS happen.
But the only question is will there be a true recession. Buying and job creation are through the roof (which looks like we are super far from a recession), but sentiment is nearly as bad as 2009 (which suggests were are in a recession). So which do you believe more? I happen to think the sentiment suppression is politics- (and thus media-) driven (on both sides of the aisle) and the economy is booming.
Ofc a lot of recessions are triggered by spikes in oil prices. But I don't see that happening here, since it looks like oil is already dropping (ofc it could spike again, who knows) AND bc the share of the economy going to pay for oil is tiny compared to decades ago.
I'm not saying the economy is booming at a level to justify current valuations, but enough that a recession is nowhere in sight. Risk on, and enjoy the 8% returns (and don't sweat the dips).
I'm surprised to see "productivity is high", given the shortages due to supply chain issues. I don't have data though.
The rest of your story is the reason I consistently buy each time a paycheck comes in. When the stocks are cheap (e.g. after a correction), it means I buy more because I spend the same amount. When stocks are expensive, I buy relatively less for the amount of money.
The rest of your story is the reason I consistently buy each time a paycheck comes in. When the stocks are cheap (e.g. after a correction), it means I buy more because I spend the same amount. When stocks are expensive, I buy relatively less for the amount of money.
So, what DO I worry about? China!
No, not China invading anywhere, but I guess that could happen.
Nope. I am worried about Chinese real estate having a housing bubble. They have been pumping up a huge housing bubble to make up for shortfalls in economic growth since the Great Recession. By various metrics it is currently way worse (like 2-3X worse relative to the rest of the economy) than the US case in 2007!
Mind you, the current Xi regime is POPULAR. It is authoritarian (and scarily so to US eyes). But the Chinese people are less wary of such things and they have seen a level of economic improvement since 1980 that looks like that in the US from 1800 to 2000
Think about that. Almost 200 years of economic advancement in the memories of most of those living! And the regime is totally taking credit for that, (and the fact that there were ZERO recessions during that time) and saying it is bc they are BETTER at economics (via central planning) than the West. And based on the evidence of their eyes...many people just believe it. And so Xi can get away with anything. Only a very small number understand the global factors that made such growth possible.
But the last 10-15 years have been fake growth from an epic housing bubble. How long can they keep it going? How can they unwind it? What does regime change look like? How does an unpopular regime act?
Fun fact: China does NOT have a social security (or state retirement) system at all. People used to save for retirement by having lots of kids to care for them. Now they don't have that, so they have real estate investments (mostly high rise apartments) that have sky high valuations that they plan to sell as needed in retirement. Except those valuations are probably fake!
So IMO China could go 'poof' in a month, a year or a decade. And that can trigger (IMO) a US stock market reset. And will be hard to predict.
No, not China invading anywhere, but I guess that could happen.
Nope. I am worried about Chinese real estate having a housing bubble. They have been pumping up a huge housing bubble to make up for shortfalls in economic growth since the Great Recession. By various metrics it is currently way worse (like 2-3X worse relative to the rest of the economy) than the US case in 2007!
Mind you, the current Xi regime is POPULAR. It is authoritarian (and scarily so to US eyes). But the Chinese people are less wary of such things and they have seen a level of economic improvement since 1980 that looks like that in the US from 1800 to 2000
Think about that. Almost 200 years of economic advancement in the memories of most of those living! And the regime is totally taking credit for that, (and the fact that there were ZERO recessions during that time) and saying it is bc they are BETTER at economics (via central planning) than the West. And based on the evidence of their eyes...many people just believe it. And so Xi can get away with anything. Only a very small number understand the global factors that made such growth possible.But the last 10-15 years have been fake growth from an epic housing bubble. How long can they keep it going? How can they unwind it? What does regime change look like? How does an unpopular regime act?
Fun fact: China does NOT have a social security (or state retirement) system at all. People used to save for retirement by having lots of kids to care for them. Now they don't have that, so they have real estate investments (mostly high rise apartments) that have sky high valuations that they plan to sell as needed in retirement. Except those valuations are probably fake!
So IMO China could go 'poof' in a month, a year or a decade. And that can trigger (IMO) a US stock market reset. And will be hard to predict.
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Productivity Chart
Many people have left the labor force since March 2020. Economic output has rebounded much more than the number employed. This means more $$$ per employee, which is productivity.
Supply chain problems are largely bc of understaffing at the current level of demand and production. The people who are working are scrambling. And asking to be paid more for said scrambling.
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