Taxing and tariffs

[jharkin]

Oak, you can listen to Allentown all day on repeat until your ears bleed... but I'm sorry your factory jobs are never coming back. Ever. No matter what we do.

Those jobs where not eliminated by trade, they where eliminated by automation. Moving them to china for cheap labor was just a roadside pitstop on the road to the inevitable.

I assume you are familiar with the Foxconn layoffs:
http://fortune.com/2016/05/26/foxconn-factory-robot-workers/


As was mentioned in a few threads, a big chunk of manufacturing HAS been coming back to the US in recent years, as production has become so cheap that now final goods transport over the ocean becomes a dominant cost. Just look at all the "foreign" car brands with final assembly plants here in the US (BMW in the Carolinas, Honda in Ohio, Subaru, Nissan, etc) but these new plants are heavily automated and will never employ anywhere near as many people as Bethlehem Steel did in its heyday.

Or at least that was happening, until the geniuses at 1600 started a trade war which will ironically slow this trend down and destroy American jobs.


P.S. Its only going to continue. Automation is fast eliminating service sector jobs as well, and next up is knowledge worker jobs as software and AI replaces routine/repeatable work like basic legal form generation, reading x-rays, etc. Software programmers will be up after that once software generated software is perfected (and there is traction on that already).

 

[jharkin]

"...... One day, the lending countries could decide to ask America to repay the debt. On that day, the party is over."

I'm not certain the debt is callable. They can however stop buying our debt, in which case we offer higher interest until the buyers come out.

Fairly sure you are correct and its not callable, as the debt is all in the form of bonds (T-bills, TIPS, etc).

Also this thread has got way off track in a few places as Oak keeps saying the debt bomb will explode, then begreen asks who its owed to and the answers start talking about the trade deficit.

trade defect X= debt.

The actual debt is less than 1/3 owned by foreign countries. Most of it is owned by you and I though our retirement plans, by US corporations, and other government agencies. So lets stop with the fear mongering that China is going to "call the loan" and crash our economy. It physically can't happen, and even if it could they would be crazy to do it and they know it (they cant sell us stuff if we cant afford to buy).


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-who-owns-a-record-2121-trillion-of-us-debt-2018-08-21


I'm not saying that ever increasing debt levels are completely a good thing, but I do think we have to at all at least have a common understanding of the problem before we can have a productive conversation about fixes.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

Oak, you can listen to Allentown all day on repeat until your ears bleed... but I'm sorry your factory jobs are never coming back. Ever. No matter what we do.

Those jobs where not eliminated by trade, they where eliminated by automation. Moving them to china for cheap labor was just a roadside pitstop on the road to the inevitable.

I assume you are familiar with the Foxconn layoffs:
http://fortune.com/2016/05/26/foxconn-factory-robot-workers/


As was mentioned in a few threads, a big chunk of manufacturing HAS been coming back to the US in recent years, as production has become so cheap that now final goods transport over the ocean becomes a dominant cost. Just look at all the "foreign" car brands with final assembly plants here in the US (BMW in the Carolinas, Honda in Ohio, Subaru, Nissan, etc) but these new plants are heavily automated and will never employ anywhere near as many people as Bethlehem Steel did in its heyday.

Or at least that was happening, until the geniuses at 1600 started a trade war which will ironically slow this trend down and destroy American jobs.


P.S. Its only going to continue. Automation is fast eliminating service sector jobs as well, and next up is knowledge worker jobs as software and AI replaces routine/repeatable work like basic legal form generation, reading x-rays, etc. Software programmers will be up after that once software generated software is perfected (and there is traction on that already).

disagree with your history, '80-90's when the doors opened named brands rushed the the low $$ labor areas of the world.even the most automated plants could not compete. agree they are gone for good. what does have a chance are niche tough to automate markets in industries.good ole fashion USA made furniture, apparel, shoe, on and on. some of that will be exported as well. small-moderate growth can happen, if for no other reason, because there is nothing else to do.

 

[Ashful]

Wow.. if you folks put half the energy into making money, that you put into arguing about tariffs, you wouldn’t care about tariffs. :lol:

 

[vinny11950]

Well, the trade deficit just hit a 10-year high, and the Federal Budget Deficit is growing again and set to explode in the coming years.

I would say the Taxing and Tariff policies of this administration are not working for most people. And if you benefited from the tax cut, it is probably being offset by higher interest rates on credit cards, mortgages, and loans. Add to that higher prices on goods built with tariffed materials, and it all adds up to a different kind of tax.

And the monthly jobs numbers don't look much different than before the tax cuts. Today's number was 155,000 jobs added.

I know it is still early in the implementation of these policies, but the trends are not good.

 

[Ashful]

Well, the trade deficit just hit a 10-year high, and the Federal Budget Deficit is growing again and set to explode in the coming years.

I would say the Taxing and Tariff policies of this administration are not working for most people. And if you benefited from the tax cut, it is probably being offset by higher interest rates on credit cards, mortgages, and loans. Add to that higher prices on goods built with tariffed materials, and it all adds up to a different kind of tax.

And the monthly jobs numbers don't look much different than before the tax cuts. Today's number was 155,000 jobs added.

I know it is still early in the implementation of these policies, but the trends are not good.

I guess everyone’s situation is different, but I’m doing much better under the current administration, than any time in the prior 8 years. It also seems that so are most people around me. If you’re above water, higher rates just means a higher return on your assets, only those with more debt than liquid assets will see a net loss under higher interest rates.

 

[begreen]

I guess everyone’s situation is different, but I’m doing much better under the current administration, than any time in the prior 8 years. It also seems that so are most people around me. If you’re above water, higher rates just means a higher return on your assets, only those with more debt than liquid assets will see a net loss under higher interest rates.

Ask a farmer that lost 80% of their sales this year and have had to plow their crops into the ground.

 

[begreen]

Just because local weather is cold or rainy doesn't mean climate change is not happening. It is the same thing with local vs national economies. One area may be doing well, but the big picture is not as rosy unless they are fat with govt. contracts. We've also seen local distilleries here have precipitous sales drops due to the tariffs. Keg manufacturers with lower sales and much higher costs for stainless steel, are seeing the same effect. Several companies have had to do large layoffs and may not recover. Mid-Continental Nail, the nation's largest nail mfg. is also a casualty with many layoffs. Worse yet are the tens of thousands of solar workers that have been laid off. The list goes on and on including ironically washing machines that the tariffs were supposed to help, but then their cost for steel skyrocketed.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/france...ll-hurt-america-more-than-china/#2fc3ede76276

 

[bholler]

Just because local weather is cold or rainy doesn't mean climate change is not happening. It is the same thing with local vs national economies. One area may be doing well, but the big picture is not as rosy unless they are fat with govt. contracts. We've also seen local distilleries here have precipitous sales drops due to the tariffs. Keg manufacturers with lower sales and much higher costs for stainless steel, are seeing the same effect. Several companies have had to do large layoffs and may not recover. Mid-Continental Nail, the nation's largest nail mfg. is also a casualty with many layoffs. Worse yet are the tens of thousands of solar workers that have been laid off.The list goes on and on including ironically washing machines that the tariffs were supposed to help, but then their cost for steel skyrocketed.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/france...ll-hurt-america-more-than-china/#2fc3ede76276

Costs in the chimney industry have increased considerably as well.

 

[jatoxico]

The competing ideas have already been laid out and I guess we will see how effective the stance our current admin has taken is. I am of the opinion that China has been unfair in its practices especially regarding intellectual property theft and they do manipulate markets and currency as part of a very long game they are playing.

The marriage of gov't and business has been effective for them. Their leaders pick which domestic regions will win and lose and invest in infrastructure based on goals they do not expect to entirely realize in their own life times (contrast that with our stock ticker watching economy). Not sure they will "fold" in any real way in the short term and I predict they are largely going to wait out the current admin, possibly even if elected to another term.

There may be some symbolic but unsubstantial concessions to give the appearance of change. Real change may only come from within if their population tires of the heavy handed control employed by the Chinese gov't.

 

[Ashful]

Ask a farmer that lost 80% of their sales this year and have had to plow their crops into the ground.

Several farms in my family, they’re all doing very well, this summer’s rain aside.

My response to these complaints is the same as my response to the complaints of the past two administrations: the smart and ambitious will find a way to do well under any administration and economy. It’s a fool’s thought to hope that EVERYONE does well, all we need to do is ensure that ANYONE can do well. A government’s job is to provide order and opportunity, not to hold the hand of every person that wants to feed at it’s teet. Survival of the fittest, it’s not a new concept.

That’s not to say I’m against charity, I spend almost the annual average individual salary on charity, and you and I have actually interacted on one (unsuccessful) case of that. But that’s at the discretion of the individual, not government-mandated and government-bled.

 

[begreen]

Local small farms are not exactly what I was talking about. They sell mostly to local markets and are not affected by tariffs. Large scale soybean and wheat farms are more the issue. Tariffs ultimately are a tax on the consumer and we are starting to feel that cost.

If its' survival of the fittest then why is the govt. providing billions of our tax dollars in subsidies to the coal industry and Wall Street for a failed technology scheme called clean coal? Why on earth are we subsidizing the petroleum industry or ethanol producing corn agribusiness? The fact is that the biggest hogs on the govt. teet are mega corporations and with them most of D.C.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-coal-pollution/
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-coal-wallstreet/

 

[Ashful]

Local small farms are not exactly what I was talking about. They sell mostly to local markets and are not affected by tariffs. Large scale soybean and wheat are more the issue. Tariffs ultimately are a tax on the consumer and we are starting to feel that cost.

Got it. I have to admit I really don’t know much about that, around here, farming means “dairy”.

 

[bholler]

Got it. I have to admit I really don’t know much about that, around here, farming means “dairy”.

And are dairy farms doing well? They have been struggling here for a long time. Most of the smaller dairy herds are gone here the only ones that can make it are the 400+ head herds. And those are large factory operations.

Another big difference is those large farms qualify for more govt subsidies.

 

[Ashful]

And are dairy farms doing well? They have been struggling here for a long time. Most of the smaller dairy herds are gone here the only ones that can make it are the 400+ head herds. And those are large factory operations.

Another big difference is those large farms qualify for more govt subsidies.

Most of those that do well here are either getting into specialty product that's not attractive to the bigger farms, or thru their farm stores. You are right, that just selling commodity milk 1940's style is tough, for a smaller operation.

 

[sportbikerider78]

Ask a farmer that lost 80% of their sales this year and have had to plow their crops into the ground.

I hope you are not suggesting farmers operate on a free market system. Not that i'm disagreeing with your statement. It is true that tariffs are stocking the system in soybean farmers favor here in the US...at least they did.

I'm 100% for zero tariffs and subsidies. There would be a ripple affect that would cripple some crops and expand others. In a few years, industries would adjust and the markets would be real and healthy.

Most Americans can't stomach or understand that though. Some politician would make a national issue about 50 steel workers out of work, dairy not productive, sugar cane losing money in Hawaii and then bail them out.

 

[sportbikerider78]

Local small farms are not exactly what I was talking about. They sell mostly to local markets and are not affected by tariffs. Large scale soybean and wheat farms are more the issue. Tariffs ultimately are a tax on the consumer and we are starting to feel that cost.

If its' survival of the fittest then why is the govt. providing billions of our tax dollars in subsidies to the coal industry and Wall Street for a failed technology scheme called clean coal? Why on earth are we subsidizing the petroleum industry or ethanol producing corn agribusiness? The fact is that the biggest hogs on the govt. teet are mega corporations and with them most of D.C.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-coal-pollution/
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-coal-wallstreet/

...and they all kick back to those politicians.

End the subsidies. Let farmers grow whatever makes sense in that new economy and move on.
Totally agree on oil and all energy as well...including alternate energy. Clean the playing field.

 

[vinny11950]

The competing ideas have already been laid out and I guess we will see how effective the stance our current admin has taken is. I am of the opinion that China has been unfair in its practices especially regarding intellectual property theft and they do manipulate markets and currency as part of a very long game they are playing.

The marriage of gov't and business has been effective for them. Their leaders pick which domestic regions will win and lose and invest in infrastructure based on goals they do not expect to entirely realize in their own life times (contrast that with our stock ticker watching economy). Not sure they will "fold" in any real way in the short term and I predict they are largely going to wait out the current admin, possibly even if elected to another term.

There may be some symbolic but unsubstantial concessions to give the appearance of change. Real change may only come from within if their population tires of the heavy handed control employed by the Chinese gov't.

The competing ideas have already been laid out and I guess we will see how effective the stance our current admin has taken is. I am of the opinion that China has been unfair in its practices especially regarding intellectual property theft and they do manipulate markets and currency as part of a very long game they are playing.

The marriage of gov't and business has been effective for them. Their leaders pick which domestic regions will win and lose and invest in infrastructure based on goals they do not expect to entirely realize in their own life times (contrast that with our stock ticker watching economy). Not sure they will "fold" in any real way in the short term and I predict they are largely going to wait out the current admin, possibly even if elected to another term.

There may be some symbolic but unsubstantial concessions to give the appearance of change. Real change may only come from within if their population tires of the heavy handed control employed by the Chinese gov't.

China is only playing by the rules the West has setup over the years. And now that they are winning, we are whining about it and want to unilaterally change the rules. Why would they want to cooperate after they have been demonized and scapegoated for our failures?

Imposing tariffs, talking trash and now having one of their corporate leaders arrested in Canada, are moves that are backing Chinese leaders into a corner and forcing them to retaliate or look weak. It is a fight that neither side will win. It will only create disruption in the markets costing some people money. And what is the end game? More manufacturing jobs here and $2,000 Iphones?

Already countries are creating their own trade accords without US input. China is making trade deals all over the world establishing resources and markets.

 

[jatoxico]

China is only playing by the rules the West has setup over the years.

I would have to disagree in large part. Regarding theft of intellectual property, China is not playing by our, the EU's or anybody else's rules. China is regularly named by the WTO and other international trade related organizations as the worst offender who disregard court decisions or through lax enforcement allow theft and illegal manufacturing to continue.

I agree we handed over a lot of our capacity chasing cheap labor and a low regulatory environment so that individual companies could boost their bottom lines and the stock prices of public companies. So yeah, that's on us.

I once saw an interview on this topic w/ a former ambassador to China whose name I will never remember. I'll try to explain as best I can a point he made multiple times. He stated that the Western "ethic" and Chinese "ethic" are completely different. He said that in Western society we value and honor agreements (look 'em in the eye, handshake means something). In China the ethic is more akin to; if you leave yourself open then I am not only able to, but obligated to take advantage of your error.

The numerous instances you and I could cite of our litigious western societies disregard of the "handshake ethic" not withstanding, there does appear to be a difference in our cultural values. That was his opinion at any rate.

And I'm not saying that one ethical position or culture is better than the other, but once China entered the world market and made agreements to play by those rules then they must adhere to them.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

I guess everyone’s situation is different, but I’m doing much better under the current administration, than any time in the prior 8 years. It also seems that so are most people around me. If you’re above water, higher rates just means a higher return on your assets, only those with more debt than liquid assets will see a net loss under higher interest rates.

Same here, products that went missing in 14-15 are now back with confirmed orders? coincidence? also having luck with out living companies with three new customers in the shoe, apparel, and retail packaging. right now the dinosaur lives!

 

[vinny11950]

Same here, products that went missing in 14-15 are now back with confirmed orders? coincidence? also having luck with out living companies with three new customers in the shoe, apparel, and retail packaging. right now the dinosaur lives!

I hope you can thank our Federal Gov't for providing a fiscal stimulus to boost the economy from 2% gdp growth to 3%. That's right, that $800 billion dollar deficit last year is in effect a fiscal stimulus (much like the Obama era Stimulus Package of $800 billion during the recession - which Republicans hated because it grew the debt). So yes, Federal spending is in part responsible to this added growth.

But if the economy is so strong why are the deficits growing again (Next year it is projected to be $1.1 trillion)? When gdp expands, deficits come down. But not this time.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

I hope you can thank our Federal Gov't for providing a fiscal stimulus to boost the economy from 2% gdp growth to 3%. That's right, that $800 billion dollar deficit last year is in effect a fiscal stimulus (much like the Obama era Stimulus Package of $800 billion during the recession - which Republicans hated because it grew the debt). So yes, Federal spending is in part responsible to this added growth.

But if the economy is so strong why are the deficits growing again (Next year it is projected to be $1.1 trillion)? When gdp expands, deficits come down. But not this time.

think you answered your own ?
don't disagree with pp 1. both are stimuli but this past one came from reduced regs and tax, O's was past spending by congress.
pp#2 deficits don't decline if spending doesn't, spending is up, YES ? the BEAST GROWS

link to article from Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...t-hits-widest-on-record-for-month-of-november

while the left controls the $$out from house bills 2019 forward.!?

CUT D-FENCE AND WATCH CHINA AND RUSSIA GO TIHSHOUSE!

ENJOY YOU WEEKEND

 

[CaptSpiff]

CUT D-FENCE AND WATCH CHINA AND RUSSIA GO TIHSHOUSE!

Why do people post in code words I don't understand?

As for Defense spending, we can cut that by getting our butts out of the Middle East.

ENJOY YOU WEEKEND

Now that I understand, and I wish all of you the same.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

Why do people post in code words I don't understand?

As for Defense spending, we can cut that by getting our butts out of the Middle East.


Now that I understand, and I wish all of you the same.

tihs=chit! but you already knew that, no?

 

[CaptSpiff]

tihs=chit! but you already knew that, no?

I do now !

I need a decoder ring. OMG, now i'm dating myself.

(did you see how I put that OMG in there? I'm catching on)